# 3362 Cross-design convergence panel: robustness, not replication

Generated by `07_analysis_code/3362_convergence_panel.py` (deterministic; no random draws; nothing is re-estimated). Every number below and in `3362_convergence_panel.csv` is read from a checked project file and only selected, labelled and cross-checked; each row names its source file and row. Figure: `08_figures/3362_convergence_panel.png`. Test: `07_analysis_code/test_3362_convergence_panel.py`.

**Scope.** 601 rows in 55 contexts, one row per context x design. 20 contexts are drawn: the 15 pooled hierarchy contexts, U.S. rotavirus 2006 (untied), the Hib booster deferral, U.S. hepatitis A 1999, Japan JE and Sweden rotavirus (108 drawn rows). The other contexts (every remaining jump of the 3309 master table, not-estimable ones included, and the report-only candidate blocks) are table-only.

## Why agreement across same-cell designs is robustness, not replication

- **One likelihood per series governs the pooled number.** The hierarchy (`hierarchy_final_p18.json`) admits each outcome series once: 15 contexts in 14 likelihoods, U.S. PCV and RotaShield sharing the joint U.S. likelihood with U.S. rotavirus 2006 untied inside it. Its shared mean is **0.96 (0.60–1.52)**. No jump, synthetic-control, native, margin or negative-control row below enters that number; adding them would count the same children again.
- **Same cells, same errors.** A jump fit, an SDID and the hierarchy block of one context usually read the same outcome counts, the same reconstructed coverage path and similar counterfactual trends. Reporting drift in those counts, error in the exposure reconstruction or a co-timed change moves all of them together. When they agree, the estimate is not an artefact of one estimator or functional form (robustness). It is not a second draw of data (replication), and it cannot rule out a bias that all of them share.
- **The negative controls show why this matters.** Fitting the same design to outcomes that vaccination cannot cause is the check here that can reveal a shared bias. Where such outcomes lean as far from 1 as autism (the U.S. core, Hong Kong, Brazil below), same-cell agreement on autism says nothing about causation.
- **Independent evidence is labelled as such.** Only rows marked `external population` (individual-level studies of the same product in other countries) use independent data, and they answer a neighbouring question, not the same vaccine x jurisdiction contrast.

Overlap of the drawn same-contrast design rows (jump, synthetic control, margin, cross-state, candidate block) with their context series: same cells 23; same children, different cells or series 9; overlapping cells 5; independent outcome sample; shared exposure spine 2; same source series 1.

## Where the designs agree

- **England rotavirus.** Hierarchy own data 0.94 (0.86–1.02) and the England jump 0.95 (0.82–1.10) on the same national cells; the native eligible-vs-pre step 0.940 (0.891–0.993) is the same contrast on the population scale. The jump is drawn hollow because no specification passes its placebo check (widest calibrated interval).
- **Northern Ireland rotavirus.** Own data 1.01 (0.88–1.16) and the jump 0.91 (0.73–1.15) on the same 155 cells.
- **Sweden PCV.** Own data 1.01 (0.79–1.56), the all-ages F84 block 0.98 (0.77–1.26) (overlapping F84 cells, held out by the one-likelihood rule) and the county jump 1.10 (0.25–4.83) (no specification passes its placebo calibration) overlap; the early-county SDID is discarded as invalid (its gap exceeds the attainable ceiling for any r).
- **U.S. Hib booster deferral.** The corrected national jump 1.06 (0.72–1.55) (OSEP Table 20, ages 12-17, 54 cells) and the cross-state pulse 0.99 (0.81–1.21) (2,938 EDFacts state x age cells) use different cells but the same children and the same NIS coverage deconvolution.
- **U.S. hepatitis A 1999.** The jump 1.12 (0.69–1.82), the stacked SDID 1.18 (0.61–3.24) and the dose-response SDID 1.23 (0.81–1.78) all lean above 1 with intervals that include 1, on the same IDEA cells (synthetic controls are convergence only).
- **Japan JE (exploratory).** The report-only block 1.02 (0.87–1.18), the Hokkaido SDID 0.90 (0.61–1.30) and the MEXT-panel margin 0.97 (0.81–1.15) agree, but all three read the autism/emotional-class composite that fails the D4 outcome gate, so they stay outside the pool.
- **Japan MMR.** Own data 0.85 (0.28–2.32) is wide (9 cells); the Kohoku jump is uninformative (2.08 (1.0e-06–4.3e+06); not calibrated, not drawn); the native coverage gradient is 0.981 (0.805–1.196) per +10 pp. The cohort meta-analysis of other countries, 0.96 (0.88–1.05), and the Japanese case-control study 1.04 (0.65–1.67) are consistent with it (external, not the same contrast).
- **Negative controls that pass at their precision.** Every informative primary control is CONSISTENT (its interval includes 1) in Japan MMR (Core) (autism 0.85 (0.28–2.32): All Unintentional 0.86 (0.46–1.61)); Sweden PCV (autism 1.01 (0.79–1.56): All Injuries (SWE_A) 1.06 (0.98–1.13)); England Rotavirus (autism 0.94 (0.86–1.02): HES Diagnosis, S 0.99 (0.57–1.57); HES Ext. Cause, S 0.98 (0.53–1.60); STATS19, S 1.00 (0.87–1.16)); Northern Ireland Rotavirus (autism 1.01 (0.88–1.16): PSNI Casualties, S 1.02 (0.37–2.04)); Canada Rotavirus (Excl. Quebec) (autism 0.99 (0.32–1.89): CCDSS Asthma 0.71 (0.48–1.06)); Colombia Varicella (autism 0.76 (0.51–1.07): Hearing 0.98 (0.66–1.49); Motor/Physical 0.87 (0.67–1.28); Visual 0.90 (0.58–1.27); Transport Injuries 1.36 (0.99–1.93)); Tanzania Schedule (autism 1.12 (0.54–1.69): Albinism 1.00 (0.69–1.28)); Japan JE block (exploratory) (autism 1.02 (0.87–1.18): Hear/Vis/Phys, Block 0.91 (0.62–1.31)); Chile PCV10 (autism 0.50 (0.17–1.57): All Injuries 0.95 (0.54–1.54)); Taiwan Varicella (autism 1.07 (0.87–1.44): Sensory+Physical 0.89 (0.73–1.04)). This detects no non-specific bias at that precision; it does not validate the autism estimate. Colombia is borderline (review I7): its round-2 transport control passes by a hair (lower limit 0.99), its transport + accidental composite and its all-cells variant exclude 1 in the harm direction (task 3385), and the Colombian autism estimate itself moves from 0.76 to 1.32 without the 2020-2021 lockdown school years (task 3371).
- **Round-1 injury-death controls too imprecise to count.** National injury deaths on their own cells: England Rotavirus (2 of 2 UNINFORMATIVE, none excluding 1: Injury Deaths, S 0.57 (0.25–1.22); Injury Deaths, E 0.80 (0.46–1.32)); Scotland Rotavirus (1 of 2 UNINFORMATIVE, none excluding 1: Injury Deaths, S 0.88 (0.24–3.07); Injury Deaths, E 0.87 (0.32–2.31)); Northern Ireland Rotavirus (2 of 2 UNINFORMATIVE, none excluding 1: Injury Deaths, S 0.86 (0.25–2.76); Injury Deaths, E 1.46 (0.51–3.51)); Hong Kong PCV (1 of 1 UNINFORMATIVE, none excluding 1: All Injuries 0.89 (0.26–3.74)). By the tasks' width rules most of these draw no conclusion either way; round 2 adds informative controls for England, Northern Ireland and Hong Kong (tasks 3380, 3385).

## Where the designs disagree, or agree for the wrong reason

- **Canada: synthetic-control points above 1 with no power.** The drawn synthetic controls sit at 1.76–4.99 (headline demeaned SC 1.96 (0.00–6.94), 90% interval), every lower bound at 0. In the clean window only ages 1-3 are exposed (exposed share of incident cases pT 0.081 in the headline stack), so the conversion divides a noisy gap by a tiny first stage; 3310 records that the design has essentially no power and that its results agree with the hierarchy on the same cells, whose own data read 0.99 (0.32–1.89). The extended window (1.61 (0.28–1.99)) has only a nominal 50% interval and is not drawn. Quebec's own data 1.07 (0.74–1.48) against the Quebec CCDSS SC 1.81 (0.00–7.05) is the same story.
- **U.S. PCV core 1.17 (0.97–1.39) against its negative controls.** The same core-v2 likelihood with the autism count swapped for categories vaccination cannot plausibly cause gives PCV r of brain injury 1.65 (0.77–4.29); orthopedic 1.43 (0.91–2.26); hearing 1.41 (1.05–1.91); visual 1.45 (0.74–2.72): every control leans at least as far above 1 as autism. Only hearing impairment is precise enough to count under the documented rule (SIMILAR), so the verdict is MIXED: the rule draws neither 'drift' nor 'autism-specific'. The DDDs of autism relative to hearing, orthopedic and visual impairment are all below 1, from 0.79 to 0.90; the TBI DDD (0.33 on the observed cells) is unstable (1.22 on the complete-series cells, task 3326). The same-cell designs that sit near the autism estimate (the IDEA state jump 1.04 (0.88–1.23), the nested state series) share whatever produces these leans, so their agreement cannot establish specificity. Leaving U.S. PCV out moves the shared-mean upper limit to 1.511 (-0.006). A separate outcome system shows the same pattern: in the NSCH survey dose-response design, parent-reported brain injury / concussion gives 1.122 (1.021–1.232) per +10 pp PCV coverage (task 3331, BIAS SIGNAL, native scale), against autism 1.103 (0.925–1.316) on the same children. Round 2 (task 3383) fitted NCHS unintentional injury deaths on state x birth-cohort cells of the same PCV path: 2.59 (1.15–5.76), UNINFORMATIVE by the width rule but excluding 1, and its future+3 placebo fails (r 0.18 at the reference setting): on these cells the machinery returns large non-vaccine associations in both directions.
- **U.S. rotavirus 2006.** The untied core estimate 0.95 (0.76–1.19) and the EDFacts ages 3-5 jump on the same cells, 1.31 (0.74–2.33), lean in opposite directions (their intervals overlap). The negative controls carry rotavirus-2006 leans of their own (traumatic brain injury 2.37 (1.09–4.58); hearing impairment 1.41 (1.07–1.82)). The core stays untied because its future+3 placebo passes only after a post-hoc reporting-break screen and the B4 checker verdict is missing.
- **Brazil maternal DTaP: agreement for the wrong reason.** The pooled autism estimate 0.77 (0.51–1.14) leans below 1, and on the same 108 Census cells, with the same exposure path, all-injury hospital admissions give 0.51 (0.29–0.83), class BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1); task 3332's documented reading is DESIGN BIAS DETECTED (r < 1). A protective 'effect' on injuries that vaccination cannot cause means the design's autism lean below 1 is not interpretable as a vaccine effect. Brazil is one of the contexts holding the shared-mean upper limit down: leaving it out moves it to 1.560 (+0.043). Round 2 (task 3382) finds the same on a second register: SIM unintentional injury deaths on the same cells give 0.36 (0.15–0.79), also BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1); task 3382's documented reading is DESIGN BIAS DETECTED (r < 1). The individual U.S. maternal Tdap cohort 0.85 (0.77–0.95) is external evidence on a neighbouring question.
- **Germany PCV.** The pooled frozen block's own data 1.03 (0.27–3.96) and the rebuilt block with measured KVIS coverage, 0.49 (0.21–1.08), point in different directions. The rebuilt block fails the plasmode rule (an injected r of 2 on the observed outcome is read back as 0.70) and is a report-only sensitivity; the PCV x MenC jump 0.65 (0.02–21.5) cannot separate PCV from MenC and is uninformative.
- **Scotland rotavirus.** Own data 1.55 (0.38–5.31) against the Scotland + Wales jump 0.82 (0.25–2.69): opposite sides of 1, both wide, overlapping. The checker excludes the jump as a period artefact and notes that it duplicates the SCT_RV data, so it is not independent of the hierarchy row. The Scottish own-data row comes from a null-biased design (harm-injection gate SCT_RV_counts: null_bias true, weak_recovery true; median 1.54 returned at a true r of 1), so it is close to what the design returns when nothing happens (review I1).
- **Northern Ireland MenB (table only).** The jump 0.90 (0.66–1.21) against the same-cell block 0.79 (0.66–0.91): the block is not pooled (not the primary block of its series) and its own future+3 placebo, 1.18 (1.03-1.36), excludes 1, so its protective reading is not interpretable as a vaccine effect.
- **Hong Kong PCV.** Autism own data 0.89 (0.66–1.16); on the same 60 cells physical+visual 1.50 (1.09–2.22); physical 1.78 (1.23–2.90) (nested categories) are classed BIAS SIGNAL in the harm direction by task 3342, whose rule was written with the deciding estimate already known: its system reading, BIAS SIGNAL, is labelled by 3342 as fixed by that rule, not as documented, and its own null calibration puts the physical-disability value at a 12%-15% two-sided tail when birth-cohort noise of the observed size is added. Round 2 (task 3385) adds police-reported road-traffic casualties, 0.66 (0.48–0.92), BIAS SIGNAL in the protective direction, so the design's spurious 'effects' run both ways: non-specific noise of roughly 0.4-0.6 on the log scale, within the 0.70 context bias SD the hierarchy assigns. Leaving Hong Kong out moves the shared-mean upper limit to 1.539 (+0.022).

Two native rows need their labels. The U.S. PCV7 rollout spline, 1.013 (0.981–1.045) per SD of early state uptake, has a FAILED exposure mapping (the 3200/3201 audit: the adjusted first stage changes sign with the exposure map), so it stays a native coefficient and is never converted to r; the clean-reference event study on the same data gives 1.025 (0.982–1.070) per SD. The 405 pooled PCV7 kink across six U.S. panels is -0.0407 (-0.0742 to -0.0072) (log-rate slope change; harm predicts a positive kink).

## Context summary

`Designs overlapping own` counts the drawn jump, synthetic-control, margin, cross-state and candidate-block rows whose interval overlaps the context own-data interval. Same-cell overlap is expected by construction: this is a consistency check, not a test. `Leave-out upper` is the shared-mean upper limit when the context is left out of the hierarchy, with its change from the primary 1.517 (`3320_final_synthesis.csv`, rows `loco_*`).

| Context | Hierarchy own data | Leave-out upper | Rows | Drawn | Drawn designs | Designs overlapping own | Design point range | Design intervals excluding 1 | Drawn NCs | NC intervals excluding 1 | Injury NC (3331-3348, 3380-3385) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. PCV (Core) | 1.17 (0.97–1.39) | 1.511 (-0.006) | 54 | 14 | 7 | 7 of 7 | 0.87–1.93 |  | 6 | Hearing 1.41 (1.05–1.91); NCHS M1 Deaths 2.59 (1.15–5.76) | 3331 (10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED): IDEA TBI 1.65 (0.77–4.29) UNINFORMATIVE; IDEA TBI 0.84 (0.46–1.35) UNINFORMATIVE // 3383 (US_PCV UNINFORMATIVE; US_RotaShield CONSISTENT): NCHS M1 Deaths 2.59 (1.15–5.76) UNINFORMATIVE (r > 1 (harm direction)) |
| U.S. RotaShield (Core) | 0.87 (0.36–1.83) | 1.543 (+0.026) | 27 | 8 | 2 | 2 of 2 | 0.84–1.13 |  | 5 |  | 3331 (10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED): IDEA TBI 0.69 (0.20–2.21) CONSISTENT; IDEA TBI (Complete) 0.98 (0.28–3.36) CONSISTENT; IDEA TBI 0.70 (0.17–2.08) CONSISTENT // 3383 (US_PCV UNINFORMATIVE; US_RotaShield CONSISTENT): NCHS M1 Deaths 0.82 (0.17–3.13) CONSISTENT |
| U.S. Rotavirus 2006 (Untied) | 0.95 (0.76–1.19) |  | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 of 4 | 0.94–1.31 |  | 4 | Brain Injury 2.37 (1.09–4.58); Hearing 1.41 (1.07–1.82) | 3331 (10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED): IDEA TBI 2.37 (1.09–4.58) BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)); IDEA TBI (Complete) 0.65 (0.34–1.25) CONSISTENT; IDEA TBI 2.42 (1.13–4.61) UNINFORMATIVE (r > 1 (harm direction)); NSCH Brain Inj. (Conf.) 0.94 (0.71–1.24) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 0.90 (0.72–1.12) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 1.13 (0.34–3.79) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 1.09 (0.57–2.09) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 1.04 (0.40–2.66) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 0.62 (0.15–2.51) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 1.51 (0.60–3.78) CONSISTENT // 3383 (US_PCV UNINFORMATIVE; US_RotaShield CONSISTENT): NCHS M1 Deaths 1.17 (0.33–4.49) UNINFORMATIVE; NCHS M5 All External Causes 1.18 (0.31–4.53) UNINFORMATIVE |
| U.S. Hib Booster Deferral (Not Pooled) |  |  | 4 | 2 | 2 | no own-data row; all intervals share a point: yes | 0.99–1.06 |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| U.S. HepA 1999 (Not Pooled) |  |  | 5 | 5 | 5 | no own-data row; all intervals share a point: yes | 1.00–1.23 |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Japan MMR (Core) | 0.85 (0.28–2.32) | 1.540 (+0.023) | 25 | 5 | 0 |  |  |  | 2 |  | 3341 (CONSISTENT): All Unintentional 0.86 (0.46–1.61) CONSISTENT // 3347 (per context (see the task md)): WHO Unintentional 0.86 (0.46–1.61) CONSISTENT; WHO All Injuries 0.89 (0.48–1.67) CONSISTENT; WHO Land Transport 0.82 (0.43–1.58) CONSISTENT // 3385 (per context (see the task md)): Accidents 1.00 (0.41–2.21) UNINFORMATIVE |
| Japan JE (Exploratory) |  |  | 12 | 4 | 3 | no own-data row; all intervals share a point: yes | 0.90–1.02 |  | 1 |  | 3340 (CONSISTENT): Hear/Vis/Phys, Block 0.91 (0.62–1.31) CONSISTENT |
| England Rotavirus | 0.94 (0.86–1.02) | 1.547 (+0.030) | 53 | 7 | 1 | 1 of 1 | 0.95 |  | 5 |  | 3333 (per context (see the task md)): Injury Deaths, S 0.57 (0.25–1.22) UNINFORMATIVE; Injury Deaths, E 0.80 (0.46–1.32) UNINFORMATIVE // 3380 (per control (see the task md)): HES Diagnosis, S 0.99 (0.57–1.57) CONSISTENT; HES Ext. Cause, S 0.98 (0.53–1.60) CONSISTENT; STATS19, S 1.00 (0.87–1.16) CONSISTENT |
| Scotland Rotavirus | 1.55 (0.38–5.31) | 1.495 (-0.022) | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 of 1 | 0.82 |  | 4 |  | 3333 (per context (see the task md)): Injury Deaths, S 0.88 (0.24–3.07) UNINFORMATIVE; Injury Deaths, E 0.87 (0.32–2.31) CONSISTENT // 3347 (per context (see the task md)): WHO Unintentional 0.91 (0.25–3.25) UNINFORMATIVE; WHO All Injuries 0.90 (0.24–3.21) UNINFORMATIVE; WHO Land Transport 0.87 (0.23–3.10) UNINFORMATIVE // 3380 (per control (see the task md)): PHS Admissions, S 0.92 (0.26–3.05) UNINFORMATIVE; STATS19, S 0.75 (0.22–2.42) UNINFORMATIVE |
| Northern Ireland Rotavirus | 1.01 (0.88–1.16) | 1.532 (+0.015) | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 of 1 | 0.91 |  | 3 |  | 3333 (per context (see the task md)): Injury Deaths, S 0.86 (0.25–2.76) UNINFORMATIVE; Injury Deaths, E 1.46 (0.51–3.51) UNINFORMATIVE // 3380 (per control (see the task md)): PSNI Casualties, S 1.02 (0.37–2.04) CONSISTENT |
| Canada Rotavirus (Excl. Quebec) | 0.99 (0.32–1.89) | 1.527 (+0.010) | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 of 4 | 1.76–4.99 |  | 1 |  | 3384 (CONSISTENT): CCDSS Asthma 0.71 (0.48–1.06) CONSISTENT |
| Quebec Rotavirus | 1.07 (0.74–1.48) | 1.520 (+0.003) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 of 1 | 1.81 |  | 0 |  | 3384 (CONSISTENT): CCDSS Asthma (Analogue) 0.92 (0.25–3.21) CONSISTENT |
| Sweden Rotavirus (Not Pooled) |  |  | 7 | 4 | 4 | no own-data row; all intervals share a point: yes | 0.80–1.30 |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Sweden PCV | 1.01 (0.79–1.56) | 1.524 (+0.007) | 39 | 4 | 2 | 2 of 2 | 0.98–1.10 |  | 1 |  | 3347 (per context (see the task md)): WHO Unintentional 0.71 (0.32–1.62) CONSISTENT; WHO All Injuries 0.77 (0.35–1.70) CONSISTENT // 3381 (per context (see the task md)): All Injuries (SWE_A) 1.06 (0.98–1.13) CONSISTENT |
| Germany PCV | 1.03 (0.27–3.96) | 1.515 (-0.002) | 68 | 5 | 3 | 3 of 3 | 0.48–0.65 |  | 1 |  | 3347 (per context (see the task md)): WHO Unintentional 1.01 (0.50–1.81) CONSISTENT; WHO All Injuries 0.91 (0.47–1.57) CONSISTENT // 3348 (UNINFORMATIVE): Destatis All Injuries (A) 0.74 (0.23–3.11) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Head Injuries (A) 0.66 (0.20–2.86) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Intracranial (A) 0.64 (0.20–2.93) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Fractures (A) 0.80 (0.26–3.01) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Burns (A) 1.01 (0.28–3.74) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Poisoning (A) 0.72 (0.19–3.01) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Foreign Body (A) 0.97 (0.26–3.56) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis All Injuries (B) 0.56 (0.21–2.36) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Head Injuries (B) 0.52 (0.18–2.34) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Intracranial (B) 0.50 (0.19–2.46) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Fractures (B) 0.68 (0.26–2.48) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Burns (B) 1.10 (0.31–3.99) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Poisoning (B) 0.65 (0.17–2.84) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Foreign Body (B) 1.07 (0.29–3.86) UNINFORMATIVE // 3381 (per context (see the task md)): All Injuries (DEU_A) 1.09 (0.31–3.91) UNINFORMATIVE |
| Hong Kong PCV | 0.89 (0.66–1.16) | 1.539 (+0.022) | 12 | 8 | 0 |  |  |  | 7 | Physical+Visual 1.50 (1.09–2.22); Physical 1.78 (1.23–2.90); Road-Traffic 0.66 (0.48–0.92) | 3342 (System reading (rule written with the deciding estimate known): BIAS SIGNAL): Phys.+Vis.+Hear. 1.15 (0.90–1.47) CONSISTENT; Physical+Visual 1.50 (1.09–2.22) BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)); Physical 1.78 (1.23–2.90) BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)); Visual 2.01 (0.56–6.06) UNINFORMATIVE; Hearing 0.99 (0.72–1.32) CONSISTENT // 3343 (UNINFORMATIVE -> NOT TESTABLE): All Injuries 0.89 (0.26–3.74) UNINFORMATIVE // 3385 (per context (see the task md)): Road-Traffic 0.66 (0.48–0.92) BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1 (protective direction)) |
| Czechia MMR | 1.04 (0.32–3.66) | 1.514 (-0.003) | 19 | 3 | 0 |  |  |  | 1 |  | 3381 (per context (see the task md)): All Injuries (CZE_A) 1.19 (0.32–4.48) UNINFORMATIVE |
| Brazil Maternal DTaP | 0.77 (0.51–1.14) | 1.560 (+0.043) | 26 | 4 | 0 |  |  |  | 2 | All Injuries 0.51 (0.29–0.83); SIM All Unintentional 0.36 (0.15–0.79) | 3332 (DESIGN BIAS DETECTED (r < 1)): All Injuries 0.51 (0.29–0.83) BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1) // 3347 (per context (see the task md)): WHO Unintentional 1.08 (0.79–1.40) CONSISTENT; WHO All Injuries 1.13 (0.85–1.46) CONSISTENT; WHO Land Transport 1.27 (0.79–1.79) CONSISTENT // 3382 (DESIGN BIAS DETECTED (r < 1)): SIM All Unintentional 0.36 (0.15–0.79) BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1 (protective direction)) |
| Colombia Varicella | 0.76 (0.51–1.07) | 1.633 (+0.116) | 9 | 5 | 0 |  |  |  | 4 |  | 3337 (CONSISTENT): Hearing 0.98 (0.66–1.49) CONSISTENT // 3338 (CONSISTENT): Motor/Physical 0.87 (0.67–1.28) CONSISTENT; Visual 0.90 (0.58–1.27) CONSISTENT // 3385 (per context (see the task md)): Transport Injuries 1.36 (0.99–1.93) CONSISTENT |
| Tanzania Schedule | 1.12 (0.54–1.69) | 1.527 (+0.010) | 3 | 2 | 0 |  |  |  | 1 |  | 3339 (CONSISTENT): Albinism 1.00 (0.69–1.28) CONSISTENT |
| Northern Ireland MenB |  |  | 2 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Northern Ireland HepB |  |  | 2 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| England MenB |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| England HepB |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| England PCV |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| England MMR |  |  | 4 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | 3380 (per control (see the task md)): UTLA Admissions, S 1.29 (0.38–4.49) UNINFORMATIVE |
| Wales Rotavirus |  |  | 2 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| U.S. Influenza 6-23 Months |  |  | 2 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| U.S. Varicella |  |  | 7 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | 3331 (10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED): NSCH Brain Inj. 0.99 (0.91–1.09) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 0.89 (0.60–1.30) CONSISTENT; SLAITS Brain Inj. 1.01 (0.19–5.52) NOT VALIDATED; NSCH Brain Inj. 1.01 (0.88–1.16) CONSISTENT |
| U.S. HepB Infant |  |  | 3 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| U.S. HepA Universal 2006 |  |  | 2 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | 3331 (10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED): NSCH Brain Inj. 1.00 (0.82–1.22) CONSISTENT |
| U.S. HepA Mandates |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| U.S. MMR |  |  | 8 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | 3331 (10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED): NSCH Brain Inj. 0.94 (0.78–1.14) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 0.89 (0.62–1.30) CONSISTENT; SLAITS Brain Inj. 1.95 (0.41–9.24) NOT VALIDATED; NSCH Brain Inj. 1.95 (1.04–3.68) BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)) |
| U.S. PCV13 Swap and Rotavirus Mandates |  |  | 4 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| U.S. Thimerosal Removal |  |  | 2 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Japan HepB (MEXT) |  |  | 5 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | 3340 (CONSISTENT): Hear/Vis/Phys, Margin 0.99 (0.88–1.11) CONSISTENT; Vis/Phys, Margin 0.99 (0.87–1.13) CONSISTENT |
| Japan Hib/PCV (MEXT) |  |  | 10 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | 3340 (CONSISTENT): Hear/Vis/Phys, Margin 0.99 (0.90–1.09) CONSISTENT; Vis/Phys, Margin 1.01 (0.92–1.11) CONSISTENT |
| Japan Varicella (MEXT) |  |  | 6 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | 3340 (CONSISTENT): Hear/Vis/Phys, Margin 1.00 (0.85–1.16) CONSISTENT; Vis/Phys, Margin 1.06 (0.91–1.23) CONSISTENT |
| Japan MR Second Dose (MEXT) |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Japan Rotavirus 2020 / HPV 2013 (MEXT) |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Sweden HepB (Norrbotten) |  |  | 3 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Germany Rotavirus (East, Early) |  |  | 5 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Spain Varicella |  |  | 4 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Quebec MenB (Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean) |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| France Mandate Extension |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Chile PCV10 |  |  | 35 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | 3335 (NO BIAS DETECTED): All Injuries 0.95 (0.54–1.54) CONSISTENT // 3336 (CONSISTENT): All Injuries 0.95 (0.54–1.54) CONSISTENT; Head Injury 1.07 (0.62–1.76) CONSISTENT; Fractures 1.00 (0.60–1.66) CONSISTENT // 3347 (per context (see the task md)): WHO Unintentional 0.79 (0.40–1.49) CONSISTENT; WHO All Injuries 0.93 (0.46–1.69) CONSISTENT; WHO Land Transport 0.89 (0.44–1.73) CONSISTENT |
| Taiwan Varicella |  |  | 8 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | 3346 (NO BIAS DETECTED): Sensory+Physical 0.89 (0.73–1.04) CONSISTENT // 3385 (per context (see the task md)): Accident Deaths 0.91 (0.48–2.05) UNINFORMATIVE |
| South Korea Schedule |  |  | 13 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | 3344 (CONSISTENT): Vis.+Hear.+Phys. 0.90 (0.56–1.50) CONSISTENT; Visual 1.13 (0.41–3.17) CONSISTENT; Hearing 0.98 (0.56–2.10) CONSISTENT; Physical 0.89 (0.53–1.78) CONSISTENT // 3345 (UNINFORMATIVE): External Causes 0.94 (0.25–3.50) UNINFORMATIVE |
| Poland PCV |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Taiwan PCV13 |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| New Zealand PCV / Rotavirus / Varicella |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Latvia PCV / Rotavirus |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Denmark PCV |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Italy PNPV 2017 |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |
| Other International (Blocked) |  |  | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  | 0 |  | none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context |

## Per-context rows

Each row is on its own stated scale: `individual` rows are r (autism rate ratio, vaccinated vs unvaccinated child; for negative controls the same r on a non-autism outcome); `native` rows keep the design's own unit and are never drawn. Flagged rows (drawn hollow and light): no placebo-passing specification, uninformative or artefact per the checker, report-only, exploratory, not eligible, or an UNINFORMATIVE negative control. Interval basis, checker status, cross-check, overlap and source row are in the CSV.

### U.S. PCV (Core) (`US_PCV`)

Hierarchy pooled context (core; U.S. PCV, RotaShield and rotavirus 2006 share one joint likelihood, 1,469 cells). Injury negative controls: 3331 (10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED): IDEA TBI 1.65 (0.77–4.29) UNINFORMATIVE; IDEA TBI 0.84 (0.46–1.35) UNINFORMATIVE || 3383 (US_PCV UNINFORMATIVE; US_RotaShield CONSISTENT): NCHS M1 Deaths 2.59 (1.15–5.76) UNINFORMATIVE (r > 1 (harm direction)).

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 1.17 (0.97–1.39) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[0].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 1.16 (0.97–1.40) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[0].posterior |
| Jump: IDEA States | (2) jump | 1.04 (0.88–1.23) | individual | r | jump: hierarchy core context / family status: CALIBRATED, placebo check passed | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 1 |
| Jump: California | (2) jump | 1.03 (0.57–1.85) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: CALIBRATED, placebo check passed | same children, different cells or series | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 2 |
| Jump: Minnesota | (2) jump | 1.23 (0.23–6.48) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: CALIBRATED, placebo check passed | same children, different cells or series | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 3 |
| Jump: New Jersey | (2) jump | 0.54 (0.05–5.81) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: UNCALIBRATABLE (fewer than 3 admissible placebos under the literal rule) | same children, different cells or series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 4 |
| Jump: New Hampshire | (2) jump | 1.28 (0.48–3.38) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: CALIBRATED, placebo check passed | same children, different cells or series | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 5 |
| Jump: ADDM | (2) jump | 0.90 (0.60–1.34) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: estimated_uncalibratable (checker-corrected: + SY2000, whole-cohort 1998) | same children, different cells or series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 6 |
| Jump: IDEA National | (2) jump | 0.87 (0.48–1.60) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: estimated (checker-corrected coverage path) | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 7 |
| Jump: NSCH Surveys | (2) jump | 1.93 (0.43–8.58) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: estimated (checker-corrected state mapping) | independent outcome sample; shared exposure spine | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 8 |
| Jump: NHIS | (2) jump | 0.88 (0.28–2.77) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: estimated_flagged (no spec passes; checker-corrected: + NHIS 2004) | independent outcome sample; shared exposure spine | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 9 |
| Jump: Massachusetts | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | same children, different cells or series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 55 |
| Jump: New York | (2) jump | 0.83 (0.57–1.26) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: UNCALIBRATABLE (fewer than 3 admissible placebos under the literal rule) | same children, different cells or series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 56 |
| Jump: California DDS | (2) jump | 0.77 (0.41–1.41) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: INVALID (not identified; documentation only) | same children, different cells or series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 57 |
| SDID: PCV7 Mandates | (3) synthetic control / SDID | -0.0386 (-0.0836 to 0.0089) | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: convergence only | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 175 |
| Rollout Spline | (4) native event study / step / kink | 1.013 (0.981–1.045) | native | RR per 1-SD early uptake | FAILED EXPOSURE MAPPING: not convertible to an individual r / identification: best-supported ecological design | same cells | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 4 |
| Diagnostic-Substitution DDD | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.995 (0.952–1.040) | native | autism-specific differential RR | identification: supportive falsification design (score 0.8); diagnostic pass True | same cells | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 5 |
| ADDM Rollout | (4) native event study / step / kink | 1.053 (0.971–1.143) | native | RR per 1 six-site SD (2.35 pp) early uptake | identification: independent but small-cluster clinical-outcome replication (score 0.6); diagnostic pass True | same children, different cells or series | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 7 |
| Event Study, Ref. 1997 | (4) native event study / step / kink | 1.025 (0.982–1.070) | native | RR per SD of intensity | alternative specification on the same data (CURRENT_RESULTS.md) | same cells | no | 3202_pcv7_clean_reference_estimates.csv | 12 |
| Kink: 6 Panels | (4) native event study / step / kink | -0.0407 (-0.0742 to -0.0072) | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort (harm predicts +) | weak first stage: False | overlapping cells | no | 405_pooled_kink_meta.csv | 10 |
| NC: Brain Injury | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.65 (0.77–4.29) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class (PCV r): UNINFORMATIVE | different outcome, same design | yes | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 2 |
| NC: Orthopedic | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.43 (0.91–2.26) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class (PCV r): UNINFORMATIVE | different outcome, same design | yes | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 3 |
| NC: Hearing | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.41 (1.05–1.91) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class (PCV r): SIMILAR | different outcome, same design | yes | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 4 |
| NC: Visual | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.45 (0.74–2.72) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class (PCV r): UNINFORMATIVE | different outcome, same design | yes | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 5 |
| NC: Brain Injury | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.83 (0.42–1.59) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class (PCV r): UNINFORMATIVE / complete-series sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 19 |
| NC: Orthopedic | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.40 (0.87–2.23) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class (PCV r): UNINFORMATIVE / complete-series sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 20 |
| NC: Hearing | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.41 (1.05–1.92) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class (PCV r): SIMILAR / complete-series sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 21 |
| NC: Visual | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.36 (0.70–2.69) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class (PCV r): UNINFORMATIVE / complete-series sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 22 |
| NC: IDEA TBI | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.65 (0.77–4.29) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: B1 US_IDEA_TBI_COREV2; primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 1 |
| NC: IDEA TBI (Complete) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.83 (0.42–1.59) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B1 US_IDEA_TBI_COREV2; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 4 |
| NC: IDEA TBI | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.84 (0.46–1.35) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: B2 US_IDEA_TBI_2005_2011_SINGLEAGE_EXTENSION; primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 7 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. (Conf.) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.029 (0.802–1.319) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B3 US_NSCH_2016_2024_CONCUSSION; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 11 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.122 (1.021–1.232) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)) / role: B3 US_NSCH_2016_2024_CONCUSSION; primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 12 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. (Conf.) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.886 (0.621–1.267) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B3 US_NSCH_2016_2024_CONCUSSION; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 18 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.808 (0.626–1.043) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B3 US_NSCH_2016_2024_CONCUSSION; primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 19 |
| NC: SLAITS Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.044 (0.857–1.271) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: NOT VALIDATED / role: B4 US_NSCH_SLAITS_2007_2011_BRAIN_INJURY; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 24 |
| NC: SLAITS Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.010 (0.742–1.376) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: NOT VALIDATED / role: B4 US_NSCH_SLAITS_2007_2011_BRAIN_INJURY; primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 25 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.005 (0.939–1.076) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B5 US_NSCH_SLAITS_INJURY_MEDICAL_ATTENTION_AGE0_5; primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 27 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.976 (0.691–1.380) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B5 US_NSCH_SLAITS_INJURY_MEDICAL_ATTENTION_AGE0_5; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 28 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.044 (0.890–1.223) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B4S US_NSCH_SLAITS_2007_2011_BRAIN_INJURY; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 40 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.010 (0.870–1.174) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B4S US_NSCH_SLAITS_2007_2011_BRAIN_INJURY; primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 41 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.005 (0.952–1.061) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B5S US_NSCH_SLAITS_INJURY_MEDICAL_ATTENTION_AGE0_5; primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 43 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.976 (0.703–1.357) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B5S US_NSCH_SLAITS_INJURY_MEDICAL_ATTENTION_AGE0_5; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 44 |
| NC: NCHS M1 Deaths | (5) negative-control outcome | 2.59 (1.15–5.76) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE (r > 1 (harm direction)) / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3383_injury_negative_controls_us_deaths.csv | 529 |
| NC: NCHS M5 All External Causes | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.49 (0.66–3.60) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3383_injury_negative_controls_us_deaths.csv | 535 |
| DDD: Autism / Brain Injury | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.33 (0.20–0.86) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 14 |
| DDD: Autism / Orthopedic | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.81 (0.54–1.23) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 15 |
| DDD: Autism / Hearing | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.79 (0.56–1.12) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 16 |
| DDD: Autism / Visual | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.90 (0.61–1.34) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 17 |
| DDD: Autism / Brain Injury | (5) negative-control DDD | 1.22 (0.47–3.20) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent / complete-series sen | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 30 |
| DDD: Autism / Orthopedic | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.72 (0.45–1.21) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent / complete-series sen | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 31 |
| DDD: Autism / Hearing | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.76 (0.54–1.10) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent / complete-series sen | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 32 |
| DDD: Autism / Visual | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.93 (0.54–1.71) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent / complete-series sen | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 33 |
| SDID: Tdap Mandates (NC Event) | (5) negative-control event (SC) | 0.0316 (-0.0537 to 0.2651) | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: negative control (convergence only) | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 178 |

### U.S. RotaShield (Core) (`US_RotaShield`)

Hierarchy pooled context (core; joint U.S. likelihood). Injury negative controls: 3331 (10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED): IDEA TBI 0.69 (0.20–2.21) CONSISTENT; IDEA TBI (Complete) 0.98 (0.28–3.36) CONSISTENT; IDEA TBI 0.70 (0.17–2.08) CONSISTENT || 3383 (US_PCV UNINFORMATIVE; US_RotaShield CONSISTENT): NCHS M1 Deaths 0.82 (0.17–3.13) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 0.87 (0.36–1.83) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[1].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 0.86 (0.33–1.85) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[1].posterior |
| Jump: IDEA States | (2) jump | 0.84 (0.28–2.55) | individual | r | jump: hierarchy core context / family status: estimated (checker-corrected placebo set; no spec passes) | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 10 |
| Jump: ADDM | (2) jump | 1.13 (0.04–29.4) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: estimated (effectively uninformative) | same children, different cells or series | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 11 |
| Uptake Pulse | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.996 (0.947–1.048) | native | RR per +10pp uptake | identification: limited: only one clean lead (score 0.45); diagnostic pass False | same cells | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 3 |
| ADDM Uptake Pulse | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.976 (0.645–1.476) | native | RR per +10pp measured uptake | identification: clinically closer outcome but severely underpowered (score 0.45); diagnostic pass False | same children, different cells or series | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 8 |
| NC: Brain Injury | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.69 (0.20–2.21) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) | different outcome, same design | yes | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 2 |
| NC: Orthopedic | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.97 (0.31–2.35) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) | different outcome, same design | yes | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 3 |
| NC: Hearing | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.41 (0.48–3.16) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) | different outcome, same design | yes | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 4 |
| NC: Visual | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.14 (0.35–2.90) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) | different outcome, same design | yes | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 5 |
| NC: Brain Injury | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.28–3.36) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) / complete-series sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 19 |
| NC: Orthopedic | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.87 (0.28–2.25) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) / complete-series sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 20 |
| NC: Hearing | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.35 (0.45–3.16) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) / complete-series sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 21 |
| NC: Visual | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.13 (0.31–3.18) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) / complete-series sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 22 |
| NC: IDEA TBI | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.69 (0.20–2.21) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B1 US_IDEA_TBI_COREV2; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 2 |
| NC: IDEA TBI (Complete) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.28–3.36) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B1 US_IDEA_TBI_COREV2; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 5 |
| NC: IDEA TBI | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.70 (0.17–2.08) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B2 US_IDEA_TBI_2005_2011_SINGLEAGE_EXTENSION; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 8 |
| NC: NCHS M1 Deaths | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.82 (0.17–3.13) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3383_injury_negative_controls_us_deaths.csv | 530 |
| NC: NCHS M5 All External Causes | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.55 (0.17–1.69) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3383_injury_negative_controls_us_deaths.csv | 536 |
| DDD: Autism / Brain Injury | (5) negative-control DDD | 1.58 (0.45–3.75) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 14 |
| DDD: Autism / Orthopedic | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.72 (0.23–1.92) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 15 |
| DDD: Autism / Hearing | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.64 (0.22–1.50) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 16 |
| DDD: Autism / Visual | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.66 (0.21–1.86) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 17 |
| DDD: Autism / Brain Injury | (5) negative-control DDD | 1.01 (0.25–4.24) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent / complete-series sen | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 30 |
| DDD: Autism / Orthopedic | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.90 (0.27–2.34) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent / complete-series sen | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 31 |
| DDD: Autism / Hearing | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.65 (0.22–1.50) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent / complete-series sen | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 32 |
| DDD: Autism / Visual | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.71 (0.23–2.01) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent / complete-series sen | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 33 |

### U.S. Rotavirus 2006 (Untied) (`US_RV2006`)

Hierarchy core context, untied: estimated inside the joint U.S. likelihood, not pooled (lead decision 2026-09-25). Injury negative controls: 3331 (10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED): IDEA TBI 2.37 (1.09–4.58) BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)); IDEA TBI (Complete) 0.65 (0.34–1.25) CONSISTENT; IDEA TBI 2.42 (1.13–4.61) UNINFORMATIVE (r > 1 (harm direction)); NSCH Brain Inj. (Conf.) 0.94 (0.71–1.24) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 0.90 (0.72–1.12) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 1.13 (0.34–3.79) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 1.09 (0.57–2.09) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 1.04 (0.40–2.66) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 0.62 (0.15–2.51) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 1.51 (0.60–3.78) CONSISTENT || 3383 (US_PCV UNINFORMATIVE; US_RotaShield CONSISTENT): NCHS M1 Deaths 1.17 (0.33–4.49) UNINFORMATIVE; NCHS M5 All External Causes 1.18 (0.31–4.53) UNINFORMATIVE.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 0.95 (0.76–1.19) | individual | r | hierarchy core context, untied (not pooled) | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | untied_core_contexts[0].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 0.95 (0.75–1.19) | individual | r | hierarchy core context, untied (not pooled) | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | untied_core_contexts[0].posterior |
| Jump: IDEA Ages 3-5 | (2) jump | 1.31 (0.74–2.33) | individual | r | jump: U.S. core v2 context US_RV2006 (same-cell proxy; validation only) / family status: estimated | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 12 |
| Jump: California | (2) jump | 1.22 (0.58–2.55) | individual | r | jump: U.S. core v2 context US_RV2006 (same-cell proxy; validation only) / family status: CALIBRATED, placebo c | overlapping cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 13 |
| Jump: Minnesota | (2) jump | 0.94 (0.66–1.33) | individual | r | jump: retired (first10 pool member) / family status: CALIBRATED, placebo check passed | same children, different cells or series | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 14 |
| Jump: New Hampshire | (2) jump | 0.94 (0.33–2.72) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: estimated | same children, different cells or series | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 15 |
| Jump: ADDM | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | same children, different cells or series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 16 |
| Kink: 4 Panels | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.0152 (-0.0393 to 0.0696) | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort (harm predicts +) | weak first stage: False | overlapping cells | no | 405_pooled_kink_meta.csv | 1 |
| NC: Brain Injury | (5) negative-control outcome | 2.37 (1.09–4.58) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) | different outcome, same design | yes | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 2 |
| NC: Orthopedic | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.01 (0.70–1.46) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) | different outcome, same design | yes | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 3 |
| NC: Hearing | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.41 (1.07–1.82) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) | different outcome, same design | yes | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 4 |
| NC: Visual | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.16 (0.78–1.71) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) | different outcome, same design | yes | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 5 |
| NC: Brain Injury | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.65 (0.34–1.25) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) / complete-series sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 19 |
| NC: Orthopedic | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.93 (0.62–1.37) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) / complete-series sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 20 |
| NC: Hearing | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.40 (1.04–1.80) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) / complete-series sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 21 |
| NC: Visual | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.34 (0.87–2.03) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | descriptive (the documented rule classifies the PCV r only) / complete-series sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 22 |
| NC: IDEA TBI | (5) negative-control outcome | 2.37 (1.09–4.58) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)) / role: B1 US_IDEA_TBI_COREV2; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 3 |
| NC: IDEA TBI (Complete) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.65 (0.34–1.25) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B1 US_IDEA_TBI_COREV2; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 6 |
| NC: IDEA TBI | (5) negative-control outcome | 2.42 (1.13–4.61) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE (r > 1 (harm direction)) / role: B2 US_IDEA_TBI_2005_2011_SINGLEAGE_EXTENSIO | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 9 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. (Conf.) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.938 (0.712–1.236) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B3 US_NSCH_2016_2024_CONCUSSION; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 20 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.902 (0.724–1.124) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B3 US_NSCH_2016_2024_CONCUSSION; primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 21 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.134 (0.339–3.787) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B6 US_CA_CASEMIS_TBI; primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 34 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.093 (0.572–2.085) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B6 US_CA_CASEMIS_TBI; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 35 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.037 (0.404–2.663) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B6 US_CA_CASEMIS_TBI; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 36 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.620 (0.153–2.506) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B6 US_CA_CASEMIS_TBI; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 37 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.509 (0.602–3.779) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B6 US_CA_CASEMIS_TBI; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 38 |
| NC: NCHS M1 Deaths | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.17 (0.33–4.49) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3383_injury_negative_controls_us_deaths.csv | 531 |
| NC: NCHS M5 All External Causes | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.18 (0.31–4.53) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3383_injury_negative_controls_us_deaths.csv | 537 |
| DDD: Autism / Brain Injury | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.68 (0.39–1.29) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 14 |
| DDD: Autism / Orthopedic | (5) negative-control DDD | 1.00 (0.69–1.43) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 15 |
| DDD: Autism / Hearing | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.76 (0.60–1.03) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 16 |
| DDD: Autism / Visual | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.86 (0.54–1.36) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 17 |
| DDD: Autism / Brain Injury | (5) negative-control DDD | 1.25 (0.70–2.19) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent / complete-series sen | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 30 |
| DDD: Autism / Orthopedic | (5) negative-control DDD | 1.05 (0.72–1.52) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent / complete-series sen | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 31 |
| DDD: Autism / Hearing | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.77 (0.60–1.05) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent / complete-series sen | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 32 |
| DDD: Autism / Visual | (5) negative-control DDD | 0.72 (0.42–1.18) | individual | r, autism / control | DDD: restates the control-versus-autism comparison on the control cells; not independent / complete-series sen | different outcome, same design | no | 3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv | 33 |

### U.S. Hib Booster Deferral (Not Pooled) (`US_HIB_DEFERRAL`)

Jump context; U.S. core v2 nuisance column (no hierarchy posterior of its own). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: National | (2) jump | 1.06 (0.72–1.55) | individual | r | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / family status: corrected_primary | same children, different cells or series | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 24 |
| Jump: Hib Only | (2) jump | 1.01 (0.87–1.17) | individual | r | superseded | same cells | no | 3304_hib_booster_deferral.csv | 9 |
| Cross-State Pulse | (2) cross-state pulse | 0.99 (0.81–1.21) | individual | r | 3304 cross-state pulse (confirmed) | same children, different cells or series | yes | 3304_hib_booster_deferral.csv | 22 |
| Cross-State, Implied r | (2) cross-state pulse | 0.99 (0.81–1.23) | individual | r | 3304 cross-state pulse (confirmed) | same children, different cells or series | no | 3304_hib_booster_deferral.csv | 21 |

### U.S. HepA 1999 (Not Pooled) (`US_HEPA_1999`)

Jump context; U.S. core v2 nuisance column (no hierarchy posterior of its own). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: IDEA States | (2) jump | 1.12 (0.69–1.82) | individual | r | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / family status: estimated | overlapping cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 18 |
| SDID: 17 States | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 1.17 (0.27–4.60) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 168 |
| SDID: 11 States | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 1.00 (0.26–3.71) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 169 |
| SDID: Stacked States | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 1.18 (0.61–3.24) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 170 |
| SDID: Dose-Response | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 1.23 (0.81–1.78) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 171 |

### Japan MMR (Core) (`JPN_MMR`)

Hierarchy pooled context (core; Kohoku, 9 cells). Injury negative controls: 3341 (CONSISTENT): All Unintentional 0.86 (0.46–1.61) CONSISTENT || 3347 (per context (see the task md)): WHO Unintentional 0.86 (0.46–1.61) CONSISTENT; WHO All Injuries 0.89 (0.48–1.67) CONSISTENT; WHO Land Transport 0.82 (0.43–1.58) CONSISTENT || 3385 (per context (see the task md)): Accidents 1.00 (0.41–2.21) UNINFORMATIVE.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 0.85 (0.28–2.32) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[2].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 0.85 (0.26–2.29) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[2].posterior |
| Jump: Kohoku | (2) jump | 2.08 (1.0e-06–4.3e+06) | individual | r | jump: hierarchy core context / family status: estimated_uninformative | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 26 |
| Coverage Gradient | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.981 (0.805–1.196) | native | RR per +10pp coverage | identification: limited: nine aggregate cohorts (score 0.35); diagnostic pass False | same cells | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 1 |
| Cohort Meta (DK, US) | (4b) individual-level study, other population | 0.96 (0.88–1.05) | individual | RR/HR, vaccinated vs unvaccinated | observational calibration; zero causal weight in the project | external population | yes | 2135_individual_family_meta.csv | 1 |
| Case-Control, Japan | (4b) individual-level study, other population | 1.04 (0.65–1.67) | individual | OR | observational; in the project literature pool; zero causal weight | external population | yes | 2134_individual_effect_ledger.csv | 5 |
| NC: All Unintentional | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.46–1.61) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3341_injury_negative_controls_japan_who_mdb.csv | 2 |
| NC: All External Causes | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.89 (0.47–1.66) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3341_injury_negative_controls_japan_who_mdb.csv | 3 |
| NC: Transport | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.82 (0.43–1.58) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3341_injury_negative_controls_japan_who_mdb.csv | 4 |
| NC: Drowning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.91 (0.44–1.75) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3341_injury_negative_controls_japan_who_mdb.csv | 5 |
| NC: Falls | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.21 (0.55–2.35) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3341_injury_negative_controls_japan_who_mdb.csv | 6 |
| NC: Fire And Flames | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.78 (0.32–1.85) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3341_injury_negative_controls_japan_who_mdb.csv | 7 |
| NC: Other Unintentional | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.78 (0.33–1.74) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3341_injury_negative_controls_japan_who_mdb.csv | 8 |
| NC: Assault | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.19 (0.38–2.66) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3341_injury_negative_controls_japan_who_mdb.csv | 9 |
| NC: Accidental Poisoning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.88 (0.28–2.53) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3341_injury_negative_controls_japan_who_mdb.csv | 10 |
| NC: WHO Unintentional | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.46–1.61) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 272 |
| NC: WHO All Injuries | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.89 (0.48–1.67) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: reading row | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 273 |
| NC: WHO Land Transport | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.82 (0.43–1.58) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 274 |
| NC: WHO Drowning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.91 (0.45–1.75) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 275 |
| NC: WHO Falls | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.20 (0.56–2.26) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 276 |
| NC: WHO Burns | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.78 (0.32–1.85) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 277 |
| NC: WHO Poisoning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.89 (0.29–2.50) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 278 |
| NC: Accidents | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.00 (0.41–2.21) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3385_injury_negative_controls_col_hkg_jpn_twn_round2.csv | 545 |
| NC: External Causes | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.41–2.17) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3385_injury_negative_controls_col_hkg_jpn_twn_round2.csv | 546 |
| NC: Transport Accidents | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.20 (0.42–2.81) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3385_injury_negative_controls_col_hkg_jpn_twn_round2.csv | 547 |

### Japan JE (Exploratory) (`JPN_JE`)

Report-only: the MEXT autism/emotional-class composite outcome fails the D4 outcome gate (exploratory). Injury negative controls: 3340 (CONSISTENT): Hear/Vis/Phys, Block 0.91 (0.62–1.31) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block: Grade 1 | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 1.02 (0.87–1.18) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: outcome | same cells | yes | project_results/global_integration/asia_africa_oceania/blocks/JPN_JE_HOKKAIDO_FY2016_mext_g1_rate/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| Jump: MEXT Prefectures | (2) jump | 0.969 (0.908–1.035) | native | reduced-form ITT rate ratio R per exposure step (not individual-scale) | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | same children, different cells or series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 30 |
| Margin: MEXT Panel | (2) single-vaccine margin | 0.97 (0.81–1.15) | individual | r | margin: report-only (autism-composite MEXT outcome; 3306 eligible with caveats) | same source series | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 165 |
| SDID: Hokkaido | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 0.90 (0.61–1.30) | individual | r | sc: report-only (D4: autism-composite outcome) / exploratory (autism-composite outcome; not a pool candidate) | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 190 |
| NC: Hear/Vis/Phys, Block | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.91 (0.62–1.31) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: D1 JE block; primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 2 |
| NC: Vis/Phys, Block | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.91 (0.60–1.34) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: D1 JE block; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 3 |
| NC: Hear/Vis/Phys, Block JW | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.88 (0.59–1.28) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: D2 JE block (jump window FY2008-21); primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 8 |
| NC: Vis/Phys, Block JW | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.89 (0.59–1.31) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: D2 JE block (jump window FY2008-21); secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 9 |
| NC: Hear/Vis/Phys, SDID | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.06 (0.22–1.87) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: D3 SDID (3311); primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 17 |
| NC: Vis/Phys, SDID | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.97 (0.31–2.04) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: D3 SDID (3311); secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 20 |
| NC: Hear/Vis/Phys, Margin | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.83 (0.46–1.51) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: D5 Margins (3306); primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 108 |
| NC: Vis/Phys, Margin | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.49–1.50) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: D5 Margins (3306); secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 139 |

### England Rotavirus (`ENG_RV`)

Hierarchy pooled context. Injury negative controls: 3333 (per context (see the task md)): Injury Deaths, S 0.57 (0.25–1.22) UNINFORMATIVE; Injury Deaths, E 0.80 (0.46–1.32) UNINFORMATIVE || 3380 (per control (see the task md)): HES Diagnosis, S 0.99 (0.57–1.57) CONSISTENT; HES Ext. Cause, S 0.98 (0.53–1.60) CONSISTENT; STATS19, S 1.00 (0.87–1.16) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 0.94 (0.86–1.02) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[6].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 0.94 (0.86–1.02) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[6].posterior |
| Jump: England | (2) jump | 0.95 (0.82–1.10) | individual | r | jump: hierarchy pooled context / family status: estimated | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 32 |
| Eligible vs Pre, All Ages | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.940 (0.891–0.993) | native | eligible-vs-pre RR | identification: fragile: APC/trend sensitivity (score 0.25); diagnostic pass False | same source series | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 9 |
| Eligible vs Pre, Age 8 | (4) native event study / step / kink | 1.004 (0.935–1.077) | native | eligible-vs-pre RR | identification: fixed-age sensitivity (score 0.45); diagnostic pass False | same source series | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 10 |
| NC: Injury Deaths, S | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.57 (0.25–1.22) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary composite; cell set S | different outcome, same design | yes | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 1 |
| NC: Inj.+Assault, S (gaussian) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.56 (0.23–1.25) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary composite; cell set S | different outcome, same design | no | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 2 |
| NC: Injury Deaths, E | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.80 (0.46–1.32) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary composite; cell set E | different outcome, same design | yes | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 14 |
| NC: Inj.+Assault, E (gaussian) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.79 (0.46–1.30) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary composite; cell set E | different outcome, same design | no | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 15 |
| NC: Injury Deaths, S (UK-wide) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.85 (0.35–1.78) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary composite; cell set S | different outcome, same design | no | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 77 |
| NC: Inj.+Assault, S (UK-wide) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.32–1.82) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary composite; cell set S | different outcome, same design | no | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 78 |
| NC: Injury Deaths, E (UK-wide) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.85 (0.49–1.35) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary composite; cell set E | different outcome, same design | no | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 79 |
| NC: Inj.+Assault, E (UK-wide) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.85 (0.50–1.31) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary composite; cell set E | different outcome, same design | no | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 80 |
| NC: HES Diagnosis, S | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.99 (0.57–1.57) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 346 |
| NC: Injury And Poisoning (C1 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.81 (0.47–1.30) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary composite | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 347 |
| NC: Head Injury (C1 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.12 (0.60–1.82) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 348 |
| NC: Fractures (C1 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.97 (0.54–1.55) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 349 |
| NC: Foreign Body (C1 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.75 (0.44–1.19) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 350 |
| NC: Burns And Corrosions (C1 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.94 (0.47–1.64) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 351 |
| NC: Poisoning (C1 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.41 (0.19–0.85) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1 (protective direction)) / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 352 |
| NC: Drowning And (C1 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.70 (0.31–1.42) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 353 |
| NC: HES Diagnosis, E | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.96 (0.69–1.29) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 354 |
| NC: Injury And Poisoning (C1 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.92 (0.66–1.25) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary composite | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 355 |
| NC: Head Injury (C1 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.03 (0.70–1.41) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 356 |
| NC: Fractures (C1 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.95 (0.66–1.31) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 357 |
| NC: Foreign Body (C1 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.93 (0.68–1.26) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 358 |
| NC: Burns And Corrosions (C1 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.94 (0.66–1.31) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 359 |
| NC: Poisoning (C1 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.81 (0.45–1.35) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 360 |
| NC: Drowning And (C1 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.93 (0.53–1.64) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 361 |
| NC: HES Ext. Cause, S | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.53–1.60) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 362 |
| NC: Unintentional+assault+ (C2 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.97 (0.53–1.59) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary composite | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 363 |
| NC: Land Transport (C2 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.11 (0.60–1.82) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 364 |
| NC: Falls (C2 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.91 (0.48–1.53) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 365 |
| NC: Dog Bite (C2 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.07 (0.51–1.92) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 366 |
| NC: Foreign Body Entering (C2 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.75 (0.42–1.22) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 367 |
| NC: Drowning (C2 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.94 (0.38–2.07) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 368 |
| NC: Accidental Poisoning (C2 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.73 (0.38–1.28) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 369 |
| NC: Smoke, Fire, Hot (C2 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.93 (0.49–1.55) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 370 |
| NC: HES Ext. Cause, E | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.69–1.34) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 371 |
| NC: Unintentional+assault+ (C2 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.68–1.33) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary composite | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 372 |
| NC: Land Transport (C2 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.00 (0.71–1.37) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 373 |
| NC: Falls (C2 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.94 (0.64–1.30) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 374 |
| NC: Dog Bite (C2 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.12 (0.71–1.58) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 375 |
| NC: Foreign Body Entering (C2 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.92 (0.66–1.27) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 376 |
| NC: Drowning (C2 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.94 (0.51–1.73) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 377 |
| NC: Accidental Poisoning (C2 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.90 (0.56–1.36) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 378 |
| NC: Smoke, Fire, Hot (C2 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.97 (0.66–1.31) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 379 |
| NC: STATS19, S | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.00 (0.87–1.16) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 380 |
| NC: Killed Or Seriously (C3 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.03 (0.78–1.34) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 381 |
| NC: Pedestrian Casualties (C3 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.04 (0.86–1.25) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 382 |
| NC: STATS19, E | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.06 (0.94–1.19) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 383 |
| NC: Killed Or Seriously (C3 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.74–1.25) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 384 |
| NC: Pedestrian Casualties (C3 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.11 (0.94–1.31) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 385 |

### Scotland Rotavirus (`SCT_RV`)

Hierarchy pooled context. Injury negative controls: 3333 (per context (see the task md)): Injury Deaths, S 0.88 (0.24–3.07) UNINFORMATIVE; Injury Deaths, E 0.87 (0.32–2.31) CONSISTENT || 3347 (per context (see the task md)): WHO Unintentional 0.91 (0.25–3.25) UNINFORMATIVE; WHO All Injuries 0.90 (0.24–3.21) UNINFORMATIVE; WHO Land Transport 0.87 (0.23–3.10) UNINFORMATIVE || 3380 (per control (see the task md)): PHS Admissions, S 0.92 (0.26–3.05) UNINFORMATIVE; STATS19, S 0.75 (0.22–2.42) UNINFORMATIVE.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 1.55 (0.38–5.31) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[7].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 1.16 (0.48–2.82) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[7].posterior |
| Jump: Scotland + Wales | (2) jump | 0.82 (0.25–2.69) | individual | r | jump: hierarchy pooled context / family status: estimated (near-degenerate; Wales not estimable) | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 41 |
| Local Uptake Ramp | (4) native event study / step / kink | 1.020 (0.567–1.833) | native | full-share RR per 1-SD uptake | identification: limited: proxy intensity (score 0.55); diagnostic pass True | same source series | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 11 |
| NC: Injury Deaths, S | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.88 (0.24–3.07) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary composite; cell set S | different outcome, same design | yes | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 27 |
| NC: Inj.+Assault, S (count) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.88 (0.24–3.06) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary composite; cell set S | different outcome, same design | no | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 28 |
| NC: Injury Deaths, E | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.87 (0.32–2.31) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary composite; cell set E | different outcome, same design | yes | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 39 |
| NC: Inj.+Assault, E (count) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.80 (0.29–2.08) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary composite; cell set E | different outcome, same design | no | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 40 |
| NC: WHO Unintentional | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.91 (0.25–3.25) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: reading row | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 245 |
| NC: WHO All Injuries | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.90 (0.24–3.21) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 246 |
| NC: WHO Land Transport | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.87 (0.23–3.10) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 247 |
| NC: WHO Drowning | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.04 (0.26–3.98) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 248 |
| NC: WHO Falls | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.25–3.74) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 249 |
| NC: WHO Burns | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.08 (0.27–4.16) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 250 |
| NC: WHO Poisoning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.96 (0.25–3.66) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 251 |
| NC: WHO Foreign Body / Choking | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.95 (0.25–3.60) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 252 |
| NC: WHO Dog Bite | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.25–3.77) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 253 |
| NC: PHS Admissions, S | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.92 (0.26–3.05) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 386 |
| NC: PHS Admissions, E | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.11 (0.42–2.75) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 387 |
| NC: Falls (C4 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.89 (0.25–2.94) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 388 |
| NC: Road Traffic Injury (C4 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.87 (0.25–2.85) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 389 |
| NC: Poisoning (C4 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.97 (0.27–3.21) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 390 |
| NC: Struck By, Against (C4 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.85 (0.24–2.80) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 391 |
| NC: Crushing (C4 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.90 (0.25–2.99) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 392 |
| NC: Scalds (C4 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.24–2.93) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 393 |
| NC: Other (C4 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.95 (0.26–3.17) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: category | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 394 |
| NC: STATS19, S | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.75 (0.22–2.42) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 395 |
| NC: Killed Or Seriously (C5 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.91 (0.25–2.93) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 396 |
| NC: STATS19, E | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.75 (0.22–2.42) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 397 |
| NC: Killed Or Seriously (C5 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.91 (0.25–2.95) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 398 |

### Northern Ireland Rotavirus (`NIR_RV`)

Hierarchy pooled context. Injury negative controls: 3333 (per context (see the task md)): Injury Deaths, S 0.86 (0.25–2.76) UNINFORMATIVE; Injury Deaths, E 1.46 (0.51–3.51) UNINFORMATIVE || 3380 (per control (see the task md)): PSNI Casualties, S 1.02 (0.37–2.04) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 1.01 (0.88–1.16) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[8].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 1.01 (0.88–1.15) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[8].posterior |
| Jump: Northern Ireland | (2) jump | 0.91 (0.73–1.15) | individual | r | jump: hierarchy pooled context / family status: estimated | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 38 |
| Fully Exposed vs Pre | (4) native event study / step / kink | 1.078 (0.915–1.271) | native | fully exposed-vs-pre RR | identification: failed: APC/pretrend (score 0.02); diagnostic pass False | same source series | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 13 |
| NC: Injury Deaths, S | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.25–2.76) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary composite; cell set S | different outcome, same design | yes | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 51 |
| NC: Inj.+Assault, S (gaussian) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.95 (0.28–2.97) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary composite; cell set S | different outcome, same design | no | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 52 |
| NC: Injury Deaths, E | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.46 (0.51–3.51) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary composite; cell set E | different outcome, same design | yes | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 64 |
| NC: Inj.+Assault, E (gaussian) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.46 (0.51–3.49) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary composite; cell set E | different outcome, same design | no | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | 65 |
| NC: PSNI Casualties, S | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.02 (0.37–2.04) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 401 |
| NC: Killed Or Seriously (C7 S) | (5) negative-control outcome | 2.36 (0.86–4.79) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 402 |
| NC: PSNI Casualties, E | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.16 (0.48–2.17) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 403 |
| NC: Killed Or Seriously (C7 E) | (5) negative-control outcome | 2.44 (0.99–5.09) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 404 |

### Canada Rotavirus (Excl. Quebec) (`CAN_RV`)

Hierarchy pooled context. Injury negative controls: 3384 (CONSISTENT): CCDSS Asthma 0.71 (0.48–1.06) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 0.99 (0.32–1.89) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[9].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 1.02 (0.46–1.77) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[9].posterior |
| Jump: Provinces | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: hierarchy pooled context / family status: not_estimable | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 47 |
| SC: Early Adopters | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 1.96 (0.00–6.94) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 180 |
| SC: ON+QC+BC 2012 | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 2.19 (0.00–7.36) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 181 |
| SC: Prince Edward Isl. | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 3.64 (0.00–6.00) | individual | r | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 182 |
| SC: Ontario | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 1.76 (0.00–6.42) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 183 |
| SC: British Columbia | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 4.99 (0.00–12.2) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 185 |
| SC: Saskatchewan | (3) synthetic control / SDID | -0.2959 | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: convergence only | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 186 |
| SC: Manitoba | (3) synthetic control / SDID | -0.2715 | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 187 |
| SC: Alberta | (3) synthetic control / SDID | -0.1489 | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 188 |
| SC: Nova Scotia | (3) synthetic control / SDID | NA | none |  | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 189 |
| SC: Early Adopters, FY2019 | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 1.61 (0.28–1.99) | individual | r | convergence_only | same cells | no | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.csv | 94 |
| NC: CCDSS Asthma | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.71 (0.48–1.06) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: assigned negative control | different outcome, same design | yes | 3384_negative_controls_canada.csv | 538 |

### Quebec Rotavirus (`QC_RV`)

Hierarchy pooled context. Injury negative controls: 3384 (CONSISTENT): CCDSS Asthma (Analogue) 0.92 (0.25–3.21) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 1.07 (0.74–1.48) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[10].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 1.06 (0.75–1.45) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[10].posterior |
| SC: Quebec (CCDSS) | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 1.81 (0.00–7.05) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same children, different cells or series | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 184 |
| NC: CCDSS Asthma (Analogue) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.92 (0.25–3.21) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: report-only analogue (Quebec) | different outcome, same design | no | 3384_negative_controls_canada.csv | 539 |

### Sweden Rotavirus (Not Pooled) (`SWE_RV`)

Jump context; hierarchy report-only block (one likelihood per series: the F84 cells are held by Sweden PCV). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block: F84 All Ages | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 1.30 (0.86–1.90) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: one_likelihood_per_series | same cells | yes | project_results/global_integration/nordic_baltic_nl/blocks/SWE_RV_F84_allages/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| Jump: Regions | (2) jump | 0.91 (0.45–1.83) | individual | r | jump: hierarchy report-only context / family status: estimated (knife-edge pass) | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 43 |
| Margin: Counties | (2) single-vaccine margin | 0.80 (0.63–1.03) | individual | r | margin: not eligible | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 167 |
| SDID: Stockholm | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 0.89 (0.13–3.32) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 191 |
| SC: Stockholm (LSS) | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 1.14 (0.00–4.42) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 196 |
| SDID: Jönköping (LSS) | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 4.70 (1.13–9.03) | individual | r | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 197 |
| SDID: Stacked (LSS) | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 3.77 (0.98–7.15) | individual | r | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 198 |

### Sweden PCV (`SWE_PCV`)

Hierarchy pooled context. Injury negative controls: 3347 (per context (see the task md)): WHO Unintentional 0.71 (0.32–1.62) CONSISTENT; WHO All Injuries 0.77 (0.35–1.70) CONSISTENT || 3381 (per context (see the task md)): All Injuries (SWE_A) 1.06 (0.98–1.13) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 1.01 (0.79–1.56) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[3].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 1.01 (0.78–1.56) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[3].posterior |
| Block: F84 All Ages | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 0.98 (0.77–1.26) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: one_likelihood_per_series | overlapping cells | yes | project_results/global_integration/nordic_baltic_nl/blocks/SWE_F84_allages_corrected/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| Jump: Counties | (2) jump | 1.10 (0.25–4.83) | individual | r | jump: hierarchy pooled context / family status: estimated_flagged (no spec passes) | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 42 |
| SDID: Early Counties | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 0.7336 (0.5904–0.8704) | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 193 |
| Fully Exposed vs Pre | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.886 (0.708–1.109) | native | fully exposed-vs-pre RR | identification: failed: pretrend/outcome mismatch (score 0.03); diagnostic pass False | same source series | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 14 |
| NC: WHO Unintentional | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.71 (0.32–1.62) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: reading row | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 254 |
| NC: WHO All Injuries | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.77 (0.35–1.70) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 255 |
| NC: All Injuries (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.06 (0.98–1.13) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 443 |
| NC: Head Injuries (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.04 (0.94–1.15) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 444 |
| NC: Intracranial (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.01 (0.91–1.12) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 445 |
| NC: Fractures (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.04 (0.97–1.11) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 446 |
| NC: Burns (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.16 (0.92–1.44) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 447 |
| NC: Poisoning (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.38 (0.93–2.01) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 448 |
| NC: Foreign Body (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.18 (0.96–1.34) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 449 |
| NC: Skull Or Facial (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.16 (0.93–1.42) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 450 |
| NC: Rib Or Thoracic (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.95 (0.43–1.88) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 452 |
| NC: Lumbar Or Pelvic (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 2.02 (1.09–3.58) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE (r > 1 (harm direction)) / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 453 |
| NC: Shoulder Or Upper-Arm (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.12 (1.02–1.21) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE (r > 1 (harm direction)) / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 454 |
| NC: Forearm Fracture (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.00 (0.92–1.10) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 455 |
| NC: Wrist Or Hand Fracture (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.06 (0.86–1.19) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 456 |
| NC: Femur Fracture (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.26 (0.81–1.77) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 457 |
| NC: Lower-Leg Fracture (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.92 (0.73–1.08) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 458 |
| NC: Foot Fracture (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.86–1.10) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 459 |
| NC: Other External Causes (SWE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.22 (0.72–2.23) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 461 |
| NC: All Accidents (SWE_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.03 (0.98–1.08) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 462 |
| NC: Falls (SWE_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.02 (0.97–1.07) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 463 |
| NC: Transport (SWE_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.96 (0.89–1.05) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 464 |
| NC: Dog Bite (SWE_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.07 (0.82–1.36) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 466 |
| NC: Accid. Poisoning (SWE_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.01 (0.70–1.48) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 467 |
| NC: Smoke Or Fire (SWE_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.39 (0.85–2.24) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 468 |
| NC: Hot Substances (SWE_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.65–1.09) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 469 |
| NC: Land Transport (SWE_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.96 (0.88–1.05) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 470 |
| NC: All Accidents (SWE_C) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.99 (0.89–1.06) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 471 |
| NC: Falls (SWE_C) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.99 (0.91–1.08) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 472 |
| NC: Transport (SWE_C) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.02 (0.78–1.23) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 473 |
| NC: Accid. Poisoning (SWE_C) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.63 (0.81–3.28) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 476 |
| NC: Land Transport (SWE_C) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.76–1.21) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 479 |
| SDID: TBE Regions (NC Event) | (5) negative-control event (SC) | 0.0147 (-0.4785 to 0.5659) | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: negative control (convergence only) | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 194 |

### Germany PCV (`DEU_PCV`)

Hierarchy pooled context (frozen block re-admitted). Injury negative controls: 3347 (per context (see the task md)): WHO Unintentional 1.01 (0.50–1.81) CONSISTENT; WHO All Injuries 0.91 (0.47–1.57) CONSISTENT || 3348 (UNINFORMATIVE): Destatis All Injuries (A) 0.74 (0.23–3.11) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Head Injuries (A) 0.66 (0.20–2.86) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Intracranial (A) 0.64 (0.20–2.93) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Fractures (A) 0.80 (0.26–3.01) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Burns (A) 1.01 (0.28–3.74) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Poisoning (A) 0.72 (0.19–3.01) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Foreign Body (A) 0.97 (0.26–3.56) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis All Injuries (B) 0.56 (0.21–2.36) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Head Injuries (B) 0.52 (0.18–2.34) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Intracranial (B) 0.50 (0.19–2.46) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Fractures (B) 0.68 (0.26–2.48) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Burns (B) 1.10 (0.31–3.99) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Poisoning (B) 0.65 (0.17–2.84) UNINFORMATIVE; Destatis Foreign Body (B) 1.07 (0.29–3.86) UNINFORMATIVE || 3381 (per context (see the task md)): All Injuries (DEU_A) 1.09 (0.31–3.91) UNINFORMATIVE.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 1.03 (0.27–3.96) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[4].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 1.01 (0.22–4.66) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[4].posterior |
| Block: Rebuilt (KVIS) | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 0.49 (0.21–1.08) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: plasmode; reported as a hierarchy sensitivity | overlapping cells | yes | project_results/global_integration/central_west_europe/blocks/DEU_PCV_rebuilt/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| Block: Rebuilt, 16 Länder | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 0.48 (0.20–1.13) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: one_likelihood_per_series, plasmode | overlapping cells | yes | project_results/global_integration/central_west_europe/blocks/DEU_PCV_rebuilt_16L_cc/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| Jump: Länder | (2) jump | 0.65 (0.02–21.5) | individual | r | jump: hierarchy pooled context / family status: estimated (product PCV x MenC; uninformative) | same cells | yes | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 49 |
| NC: WHO Unintentional | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.01 (0.50–1.81) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: reading row | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 263 |
| NC: WHO All Injuries | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.91 (0.47–1.57) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 264 |
| NC: Destatis All Injuries (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.74 (0.23–3.11) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 308 |
| NC: Destatis Head Injuries (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.66 (0.20–2.86) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 309 |
| NC: Destatis Intracranial (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.64 (0.20–2.93) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 310 |
| NC: Destatis Fractures (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.80 (0.26–3.01) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 311 |
| NC: Destatis Burns (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.01 (0.28–3.74) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 312 |
| NC: Destatis Poisoning (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.72 (0.19–3.01) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 313 |
| NC: Destatis Foreign Body (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.97 (0.26–3.56) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 314 |
| NC: Destatis Skull Or Facial (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.74 (0.20–2.98) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 315 |
| NC: Destatis Rib Or Thoracic (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.02 (0.26–3.94) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 317 |
| NC: Destatis Shoulder Or Upper-Arm (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.31 (0.11–1.61) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 319 |
| NC: Destatis Forearm Fracture (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.75 (0.24–2.92) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 320 |
| NC: Destatis Wrist Or Hand Fracture (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.29 (0.33–4.67) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 321 |
| NC: Destatis Femur Fracture (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.10 (0.29–4.03) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 322 |
| NC: Destatis Lower-Leg Fracture (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.11 (0.32–3.92) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 323 |
| NC: Destatis Other External Causes (A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.77 (0.19–3.32) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 326 |
| NC: Destatis All Injuries (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.56 (0.21–2.36) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 327 |
| NC: Destatis Head Injuries (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.52 (0.18–2.34) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 328 |
| NC: Destatis Intracranial (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.50 (0.19–2.46) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 329 |
| NC: Destatis Fractures (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.68 (0.26–2.48) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 330 |
| NC: Destatis Burns (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.10 (0.31–3.99) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 331 |
| NC: Destatis Poisoning (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.65 (0.17–2.84) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 332 |
| NC: Destatis Foreign Body (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.07 (0.29–3.86) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 333 |
| NC: Destatis Skull Or Facial (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.85 (0.23–3.38) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 334 |
| NC: Destatis Neck Fracture (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.02 (0.26–3.93) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 335 |
| NC: Destatis Rib Or Thoracic (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.06 (0.27–4.07) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 336 |
| NC: Destatis Lumbar Or Pelvic (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.01 (0.26–3.89) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 337 |
| NC: Destatis Shoulder Or Upper-Arm (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.22 (0.08–0.65) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1 (protective direction)) / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 338 |
| NC: Destatis Forearm Fracture (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.59 (0.22–2.19) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 339 |
| NC: Destatis Wrist Or Hand Fracture (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.37 (0.36–4.89) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 340 |
| NC: Destatis Femur Fracture (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.15 (0.30–4.21) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 341 |
| NC: Destatis Lower-Leg Fracture (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.02 (0.28–3.77) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 342 |
| NC: Destatis Foot Fracture (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.85 (0.22–3.40) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 343 |
| NC: Destatis Other External Causes (B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.77 (0.20–3.32) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | 345 |
| NC: All Injuries (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.09 (0.31–3.91) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 405 |
| NC: Head Injuries (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.28–3.51) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 406 |
| NC: Intracranial (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.02 (0.28–3.74) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 407 |
| NC: Fractures (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.22 (0.33–4.37) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 408 |
| NC: Burns (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.84 (0.23–3.20) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 409 |
| NC: Poisoning (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.68 (0.18–2.89) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 410 |
| NC: Foreign Body (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.90 (0.23–3.70) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 411 |
| NC: Skull Or Facial (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.12 (0.30–4.10) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 412 |
| NC: Rib Or Thoracic (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.99 (0.26–3.74) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 414 |
| NC: Shoulder Or Upper-Arm (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.07 (0.29–3.93) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 416 |
| NC: Forearm Fracture (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.26 (0.33–4.62) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 417 |
| NC: Wrist Or Hand Fracture (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.88 (0.23–3.53) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 418 |
| NC: Femur Fracture (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.27–3.58) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 419 |
| NC: Lower-Leg Fracture (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.00 (0.27–3.75) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 420 |
| NC: Other External Causes (DEU_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.26–3.76) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 423 |
| NC: All Injuries (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.12 (0.94–1.32) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 424 |
| NC: Head Injuries (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.09 (0.87–1.36) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 425 |
| NC: Intracranial (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.24 (0.94–1.62) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 426 |
| NC: Fractures (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.10 (0.91–1.32) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 427 |
| NC: Burns (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.69 (0.40–1.18) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 428 |
| NC: Poisoning (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.28 (0.77–2.13) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 429 |
| NC: Foreign Body (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.56 (0.89–2.43) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 430 |
| NC: Skull Or Facial (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.05 (0.66–1.64) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 431 |
| NC: Shoulder Or Upper-Arm (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.01 (0.69–1.51) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 435 |
| NC: Forearm Fracture (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.06 (0.78–1.40) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 436 |
| NC: Femur Fracture (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.82 (0.55–1.17) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 438 |
| NC: Lower-Leg Fracture (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.10 (0.74–1.59) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 439 |
| NC: Other External Causes (DEU_B) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.63 (0.37–0.99) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1 (protective direction)) / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 442 |

### Hong Kong PCV (`HKG_PCV`)

Hierarchy pooled context (frozen). Injury negative controls: 3342 (System reading (rule written with the deciding estimate known): BIAS SIGNAL): Phys.+Vis.+Hear. 1.15 (0.90–1.47) CONSISTENT; Physical+Visual 1.50 (1.09–2.22) BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)); Physical 1.78 (1.23–2.90) BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)); Visual 2.01 (0.56–6.06) UNINFORMATIVE; Hearing 0.99 (0.72–1.32) CONSISTENT || 3343 (UNINFORMATIVE -> NOT TESTABLE): All Injuries 0.89 (0.26–3.74) UNINFORMATIVE || 3385 (per context (see the task md)): Road-Traffic 0.66 (0.48–0.92) BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1 (protective direction)).

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 0.89 (0.66–1.16) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[5].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 0.89 (0.65–1.16) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[5].posterior |
| NC: Phys.+Vis.+Hear. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.15 (0.90–1.47) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: negative_control | different outcome, same design | yes | 3342_injury_negative_controls_hkg_edb_sen.csv | 2 |
| NC: Physical+Visual | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.50 (1.09–2.22) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)) / role: negative_control | different outcome, same design | yes | 3342_injury_negative_controls_hkg_edb_sen.csv | 3 |
| NC: Physical | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.78 (1.23–2.90) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)) / role: negative_control | different outcome, same design | yes | 3342_injury_negative_controls_hkg_edb_sen.csv | 4 |
| NC: Visual | (5) negative-control outcome | 2.01 (0.56–6.06) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: negative_control | different outcome, same design | yes | 3342_injury_negative_controls_hkg_edb_sen.csv | 5 |
| NC: Hearing | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.99 (0.72–1.32) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: negative_control | different outcome, same design | yes | 3342_injury_negative_controls_hkg_edb_sen.csv | 6 |
| NC: All Injuries | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.89 (0.26–3.74) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary composite | different outcome, same design | yes | 3343_injury_negative_controls_hkg_who_mdb.csv | 2 |
| NC: Unintentional | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.90 (0.27–3.39) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3343_injury_negative_controls_hkg_who_mdb.csv | 3 |
| NC: Falls | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.66 (0.72–3.40) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3343_injury_negative_controls_hkg_who_mdb.csv | 5 |
| NC: Road-Traffic | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.66 (0.48–0.92) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1 (protective direction)) / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3385_injury_negative_controls_col_hkg_jpn_twn_round2.csv | 543 |
| NC: Pedestrian Casualties | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.76 (0.52–1.15) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3385_injury_negative_controls_col_hkg_jpn_twn_round2.csv | 544 |

### Czechia MMR (`CZE_MMR`)

Hierarchy pooled context (frozen). Injury negative controls: 3381 (per context (see the task md)): All Injuries (CZE_A) 1.19 (0.32–4.48) UNINFORMATIVE.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 1.04 (0.32–3.66) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[11].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 1.00 (0.28–4.00) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[11].posterior |
| Cohort Meta (DK, US) | (4b) individual-level study, other population | 0.96 (0.88–1.05) | individual | RR/HR, vaccinated vs unvaccinated | observational calibration; zero causal weight in the project | external population | yes | 2135_individual_family_meta.csv | 1 |
| NC: All Injuries (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.19 (0.32–4.48) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 480 |
| NC: Head Injuries (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.08 (0.30–4.10) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 481 |
| NC: Intracranial (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.05 (0.29–3.87) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 482 |
| NC: Fractures (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.12 (0.31–4.18) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 483 |
| NC: Burns (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.10 (0.31–3.97) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 484 |
| NC: Poisoning (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.03 (0.29–3.82) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 485 |
| NC: Foreign Body (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.02 (0.28–3.81) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 486 |
| NC: Skull Or Facial (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.93 (0.25–3.51) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 487 |
| NC: Rib Or Thoracic (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.23–3.25) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 489 |
| NC: Lumbar Or Pelvic (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.83 (0.22–3.12) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 490 |
| NC: Shoulder Or Upper-Arm (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.03 (0.28–3.85) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 491 |
| NC: Forearm Fracture (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.06 (0.29–3.96) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 492 |
| NC: Wrist Or Hand Fracture (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.08 (0.30–3.99) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 493 |
| NC: Femur Fracture (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.82 (0.22–3.15) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 494 |
| NC: Lower-Leg Fracture (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.05 (0.29–3.86) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 495 |
| NC: Foot Fracture (CZE_A) | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.01 (0.28–3.78) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | 496 |

### Brazil Maternal DTaP (`BRA_MDTPA`)

Hierarchy pooled context. Injury negative controls: 3332 (DESIGN BIAS DETECTED (r < 1)): All Injuries 0.51 (0.29–0.83) BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1) || 3347 (per context (see the task md)): WHO Unintentional 1.08 (0.79–1.40) CONSISTENT; WHO All Injuries 1.13 (0.85–1.46) CONSISTENT; WHO Land Transport 1.27 (0.79–1.79) CONSISTENT || 3382 (DESIGN BIAS DETECTED (r < 1)): SIM All Unintentional 0.36 (0.15–0.79) BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1 (protective direction)).

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 0.77 (0.51–1.14) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[12].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 0.76 (0.51–1.14) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[12].posterior |
| Cohort (U.S. Tdap) | (4b) individual-level study, other population | 0.85 (0.77–0.95) | individual | HR | observational; not pooled (Single independent study in family); zero causal weight | external population | yes | 2134_individual_effect_ledger.csv | 16 |
| NC: All Injuries | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.51 (0.29–0.83) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1) / role: composite | different outcome, same design | yes | 3332_injury_negative_controls_brazil.csv | 2 |
| NC: Head Injury | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.47 (0.18–1.10) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3332_injury_negative_controls_brazil.csv | 3 |
| NC: Fractures | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.73 (0.40–1.29) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3332_injury_negative_controls_brazil.csv | 4 |
| NC: Burns | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.47 (0.65–2.99) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3332_injury_negative_controls_brazil.csv | 5 |
| NC: Poisoning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.67 (0.24–1.65) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3332_injury_negative_controls_brazil.csv | 6 |
| NC: Foreign Body | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.28–2.52) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3332_injury_negative_controls_brazil.csv | 7 |
| NC: Road Traffic | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.13 (0.56–2.08) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3332_injury_negative_controls_brazil.csv | 8 |
| NC: Falls | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.38 (0.15–0.86) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1) / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3332_injury_negative_controls_brazil.csv | 9 |
| NC: Dog Bite | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.02 (0.29–3.39) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3332_injury_negative_controls_brazil.csv | 10 |
| NC: Drowning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.94 (0.27–3.07) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3332_injury_negative_controls_brazil.csv | 11 |
| NC: WHO Unintentional | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.08 (0.79–1.40) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: reading row | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 281 |
| NC: WHO All Injuries | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.13 (0.85–1.46) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 282 |
| NC: WHO Land Transport | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.27 (0.79–1.79) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 283 |
| NC: WHO Drowning | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.06 (0.66–1.60) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 284 |
| NC: WHO Falls | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.84 (0.29–1.94) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 285 |
| NC: WHO Burns | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.10 (0.33–2.69) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 286 |
| NC: WHO Foreign Body / Choking | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.59 (0.68–3.09) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 288 |
| NC: SIM All Unintentional | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.36 (0.15–0.79) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1 (protective direction)) / role: composite | different outcome, same design | yes | 3382_injury_negative_controls_brazil_sim.csv | 499 |
| NC: SIM Road Traffic | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.81 (0.34–1.66) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3382_injury_negative_controls_brazil_sim.csv | 500 |
| NC: SIM Falls | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.26 (0.43–3.27) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3382_injury_negative_controls_brazil_sim.csv | 501 |
| NC: SIM Drowning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.75 (0.27–1.90) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3382_injury_negative_controls_brazil_sim.csv | 502 |
| NC: SIM Fire | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.69 (0.20–2.38) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3382_injury_negative_controls_brazil_sim.csv | 503 |
| NC: SIM Accid. Poisoning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.77 (0.23–2.58) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3382_injury_negative_controls_brazil_sim.csv | 504 |

### Colombia Varicella (`COL_VARICELLA`)

Hierarchy pooled context. Injury negative controls: 3337 (CONSISTENT): Hearing 0.98 (0.66–1.49) CONSISTENT || 3338 (CONSISTENT): Motor/Physical 0.87 (0.67–1.28) CONSISTENT; Visual 0.90 (0.58–1.27) CONSISTENT || 3385 (per context (see the task md)): Transport Injuries 1.36 (0.99–1.93) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 0.76 (0.51–1.07) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[13].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 0.78 (0.54–1.08) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[13].posterior |
| NC: Hearing | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.66–1.49) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: control; observed | different outcome, same design | yes | 3337_injury_negative_controls_colombia_dane_school.csv | 2 |
| NC: Motor/Physical | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.87 (0.67–1.28) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: assigned negative control | different outcome, same design | yes | 3338_injury_negative_controls_colombia_dane_school_census.csv | 2 |
| NC: Visual | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.90 (0.58–1.27) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: assigned negative control | different outcome, same design | yes | 3338_injury_negative_controls_colombia_dane_school_census.csv | 5 |
| NC: Hearing | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.66–1.49) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: supplementary negative control | different outcome, same design | no | 3338_injury_negative_controls_colombia_dane_school_census.csv | 8 |
| NC: Transport Injuries | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.36 (0.99–1.93) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | yes | 3385_injury_negative_controls_col_hkg_jpn_twn_round2.csv | 540 |
| NC: Accidental Injuries | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.56 (0.93–3.97) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3385_injury_negative_controls_col_hkg_jpn_twn_round2.csv | 541 |
| NC: Transport+Accidental | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.33 (1.01–1.96) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)) / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3385_injury_negative_controls_col_hkg_jpn_twn_round2.csv | 542 |

### Tanzania Schedule (`TZA_SCHEDULE`)

Hierarchy pooled context. Injury negative controls: 3339 (CONSISTENT): Albinism 1.00 (0.69–1.28) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hierarchy, Own Data | (1) hierarchy, own data | 1.12 (0.54–1.69) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | yes | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[14].unpooled |
| Hierarchy, Pooled | (1) hierarchy, pooled posterior | 1.09 (0.58–1.62) | individual | r | hierarchy pooled context | same likelihood | no | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | per_context[14].posterior |
| NC: Albinism | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.00 (0.69–1.28) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: negative_control | different outcome, same design | yes | 3339_injury_negative_controls_tanzania_best.csv | 2 |

### Northern Ireland MenB (`NIR_MENB`)

Jump context; hierarchy report-only block (same cells as Northern Ireland rotavirus). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block: NI Pupils | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 0.79 (0.66–0.91) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: not a primary or replacement block | same cells | no | project_results/global_integration/uk/blocks/NIR_MENB/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| Jump: Northern Ireland | (2) jump | 0.90 (0.66–1.21) | individual | r | jump: hierarchy report-only context / family status: estimated | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 39 |

### Northern Ireland HepB (`NIR_HEPB`)

Jump context; hierarchy report-only block (same cells as Northern Ireland rotavirus). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block: NI Pupils | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 0.96 (0.79–1.13) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: not a primary or replacement block | same cells | no | project_results/global_integration/uk/blocks/NIR_HEPB/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| Jump: Northern Ireland | (2) jump | 1.09 (0.65–1.83) | individual | r | jump: hierarchy report-only context / family status: estimated | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 40 |

### England MenB (`ENG_MENB`)

Jump context; nuisance column of the England rotavirus block. Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: England | (2) jump | 0.86 (0.55–1.35) | individual | r | jump: nuisance column only / family status: CALIBRATED, placebo check passed | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 33 |

### England HepB (`ENG_HEPB`)

Jump context; nuisance column of the England rotavirus block. Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: England | (2) jump | 1.13 (0.82–1.55) | individual | r | jump: nuisance column only / family status: estimated | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 34 |

### England PCV (`ENG_PCV`)

Jump context (excluded: the current England adapter has no PCV column). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: England | (2) jump | 0.94 (0.86–1.03) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: estimated | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 35 |

### England MMR (`ENG_MMR`)

Hierarchy report-only context (jumps not estimable; ENG_MMR_UTLA fails the D4 placebo and plasmode gates). Injury negative controls: 3380 (per control (see the task md)): UTLA Admissions, S 1.29 (0.38–4.49) UNINFORMATIVE.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block: Upper-Tier LAs | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 0.53 (0.36–0.96) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: placebo, plasmode | same source series | no | project_results/global_integration/uk/blocks/ENG_MMR_UTLA/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| Jump: England 1998-2003 | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: hierarchy report-only context / family status: not_estimable | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 36 |
| Jump: LAs 2012-20 | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: hierarchy report-only context | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 37 |
| NC: UTLA Admissions, S | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.29 (0.38–4.49) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | 399 |

### Wales Rotavirus (`WAL_RV`)

Hierarchy report-only block (D4 fails: pretrend). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block: Wales Pupils | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 1.57 (0.49–4.72) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: pretrend | own series | no | project_results/global_integration/uk/blocks/WAL_RV/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| First-Cohort Ramp | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.875 (0.489–1.566) | native | full-share RR per 1-SD uptake | identification: failed: pretrend/system break (score 0.1); diagnostic pass False | same source series | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 12 |

### U.S. Influenza 6-23 Months (`US_INFLUENZA`)

Jump context; U.S. core v2 nuisance column. Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: IDEA States | (2) jump | 1.13 (0.86–1.49) | individual | r | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / family status: estimated (harm-direction signals in other specs; see harm | overlapping cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 20 |
| Kink: 1 Panel | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.0241 (-0.0148 to 0.0629) | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort (harm predicts +) | weak first stage: True | overlapping cells | no | 405_pooled_kink_meta.csv | 3 |

### U.S. Varicella (`US_VARICELLA`)

Jump context (excluded). Injury negative controls: 3331 (10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED): NSCH Brain Inj. 0.99 (0.91–1.09) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 0.89 (0.60–1.30) CONSISTENT; SLAITS Brain Inj. 1.01 (0.19–5.52) NOT VALIDATED; NSCH Brain Inj. 1.01 (0.88–1.16) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: National/States | (2) jump | 1.09 (0.79–1.50) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: estimated | overlapping cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 19 |
| SC: Varicella Mandates | (3) synthetic control / SDID | NA | none |  | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 174 |
| Kink: 4 Panels | (4) native event study / step / kink | -0.0017 (-0.0541 to 0.0507) | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort (harm predicts +) | weak first stage: False | overlapping cells | no | 405_pooled_kink_meta.csv | 12 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.993 (0.908–1.087) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B3 US_NSCH_2016_2024_CONCUSSION; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 13 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.886 (0.604–1.300) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B3 US_NSCH_2016_2024_CONCUSSION; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 22 |
| NC: SLAITS Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.013 (0.186–5.519) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: NOT VALIDATED / role: B4 US_NSCH_SLAITS_2007_2011_BRAIN_INJURY; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 26 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.013 (0.883–1.162) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B4S US_NSCH_SLAITS_2007_2011_BRAIN_INJURY; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 42 |

### U.S. HepB Infant (`US_HEPB`)

Jump context (excluded). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: National/States | (2) jump | 0.90 (0.70–1.16) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: estimated (checker-corrected national path at cohort 1994) | overlapping cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 21 |
| SC: HepB Mandates | (3) synthetic control / SDID | NA | none |  | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 173 |
| Kink: 2 Panels | (4) native event study / step / kink | -0.1170 (-0.6246 to 0.3906) | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort (harm predicts +) | weak first stage: False | overlapping cells | no | 405_pooled_kink_meta.csv | 2 |

### U.S. HepA Universal 2006 (`US_HEPA_2006`)

Jump context (excluded; co-timed with rotavirus 2006). Injury negative controls: 3331 (10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED): NSCH Brain Inj. 1.00 (0.82–1.22) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: IDEA States | (2) jump | 1.06 (0.47–2.37) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: estimated | overlapping cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 17 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.997 (0.818–1.215) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B3 US_NSCH_2016_2024_CONCUSSION; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 16 |

### U.S. HepA Mandates (`US_HEPA_MANDATES`)

Synthetic-control context (convergence only). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDID: HepA Mandates | (3) synthetic control / SDID | -0.0161 (-0.0721 to 0.0437) | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: convergence only | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 172 |

### U.S. MMR (`US_MMR`)

Jump context (excluded; uncalibrated). Injury negative controls: 3331 (10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED): NSCH Brain Inj. 0.94 (0.78–1.14) CONSISTENT; NSCH Brain Inj. 0.89 (0.62–1.30) CONSISTENT; SLAITS Brain Inj. 1.95 (0.41–9.24) NOT VALIDATED; NSCH Brain Inj. 1.95 (1.04–3.68) BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)).

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: National | (2) jump | 0.82 (0.67–1.01) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: estimated_uncalibrated (0 placebos feasible) | same source series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 23 |
| SDID: Exemption Repeals | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 0.0257 (-0.0448 to 0.0794) | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: convergence only (zero causal weight) | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 179 |
| SchoolVax Dose-Response | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.989 (0.930–1.052) | native | RR per +10pp kindergarten MMR coverage | identification: limited: only three pandemic-adjacent cohorts (score 0.35); diagnostic pass False | same source series | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 6 |
| Kink: 2 Panels | (4) native event study / step / kink | -0.0209 (-0.0942 to 0.0523) | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort (harm predicts +) | weak first stage: False | overlapping cells | no | 405_pooled_kink_meta.csv | 8 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.938 (0.775–1.135) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B3 US_NSCH_2016_2024_CONCUSSION; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 10 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.895 (0.618–1.296) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: B3 US_NSCH_2016_2024_CONCUSSION; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 17 |
| NC: SLAITS Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.955 (0.414–9.237) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: NOT VALIDATED / role: B4 US_NSCH_SLAITS_2007_2011_BRAIN_INJURY; secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 23 |
| NC: NSCH Brain Inj. | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.955 (1.038–3.683) | native | prevalence ratio per +10 pp coverage (survey dose-response design; not | documented class: BIAS SIGNAL (r > 1 (harm direction)) / role: B4S US_NSCH_SLAITS_2007_2011_BRAIN_INJURY; se | different outcome, same design | no | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | 39 |

### U.S. PCV13 Swap and Rotavirus Mandates (`US_PCV13_ROTA_MANDATES`)

Jump context (not estimable) and synthetic-control mandate designs. Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: Mandate States | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | same source series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 25 |
| SDID: PCV13 Mandates | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 0.0248 (-0.0391 to 0.0889) | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: convergence only | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 176 |
| SDID: Rotavirus Mandates | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 0.0572 (-0.0633 to 0.2195) | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: convergence only | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 177 |
| Kink: 1 Panel | (4) native event study / step / kink | -0.0153 (-0.0701 to 0.0395) | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort (harm predicts +) | weak first stage: True | overlapping cells | no | 405_pooled_kink_meta.csv | 9 |

### U.S. Thimerosal Removal (`US_THIMEROSAL`)

Jump context (not estimated). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: National | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 22 |
| Kink: 6 Panels | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.0258 (-0.0087 to 0.0602) | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort (harm predicts -) | weak first stage: False | overlapping cells | no | 405_pooled_kink_meta.csv | 11 |

### Japan HepB (MEXT) (`JPN_HEPB_MEXT`)

Jump context (r not estimable; margin report-only). Injury negative controls: 3340 (CONSISTENT): Hear/Vis/Phys, Margin 0.99 (0.88–1.11) CONSISTENT; Vis/Phys, Margin 0.99 (0.87–1.13) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: MEXT Prefectures | (2) jump | 0.952 (0.901–1.005) | native | reduced-form ITT rate ratio R per exposure step (not individual-scale) | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | same children, different cells or series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 29 |
| Margin: MEXT Panel | (2) single-vaccine margin | 0.96 (0.90–1.02) | individual | r | margin: report-only (autism-composite MEXT outcome; 3306 eligible with caveats) | same source series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 163 |
| APC-Purged Kink 2016 | (4) native event study / step / kink | -0.0649 | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort | well supported: False | overlapping cells | no | 341b_japan_apc_purged_kinks.csv | 18 |
| NC: Hear/Vis/Phys, Margin | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.99 (0.88–1.11) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: D5 Margins (3306); secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 122 |
| NC: Vis/Phys, Margin | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.99 (0.87–1.13) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: D5 Margins (3306); primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 153 |

### Japan Hib/PCV (MEXT) (`JPN_HIBPCV_MEXT`)

Jump context (r not estimable; margin not eligible). Injury negative controls: 3340 (CONSISTENT): Hear/Vis/Phys, Margin 0.99 (0.90–1.09) CONSISTENT; Vis/Phys, Margin 1.01 (0.92–1.11) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: MEXT Prefectures | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | same children, different cells or series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 27 |
| Margin: MEXT Panel | (2) single-vaccine margin | 1.03 (0.97–1.09) | individual | r | margin: not eligible | same source series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 164 |
| Kink: Hib Voluntary | (4) native event study / step / kink | -0.0347 (-0.0927 to 0.0232) | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort (harm predicts +) | weak first stage: False | overlapping cells | no | 405_pooled_kink_meta.csv | 4 |
| Kink: Hib+Pcv Routine | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.0134 (-0.0292 to 0.0559) | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort (harm predicts +) | weak first stage: False | overlapping cells | no | 405_pooled_kink_meta.csv | 5 |
| Kink: Pcv7 Voluntary | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.0016 (-0.0474 to 0.0507) | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort (harm predicts +) | weak first stage: False | overlapping cells | no | 405_pooled_kink_meta.csv | 6 |
| APC-Purged Kink 2007 | (4) native event study / step / kink | -0.0347 | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort | well supported: True; the calibrated version is the 405 row | overlapping cells | no | 341b_japan_apc_purged_kinks.csv | 9 |
| APC-Purged Kink 2010 | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.0016 | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort | well supported: True; the calibrated version is the 405 row | overlapping cells | no | 341b_japan_apc_purged_kinks.csv | 12 |
| APC-Purged Kink 2013 | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.0134 | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort | well supported: True; the calibrated version is the 405 row | overlapping cells | no | 341b_japan_apc_purged_kinks.csv | 15 |
| NC: Hear/Vis/Phys, Margin | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.99 (0.90–1.09) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: D5 Margins (3306); secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 113 |
| NC: Vis/Phys, Margin | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.01 (0.92–1.11) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: D5 Margins (3306); primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 144 |

### Japan Varicella (MEXT) (`JPN_VZV_MEXT`)

Jump context (r not estimable; margin not eligible). Injury negative controls: 3340 (CONSISTENT): Hear/Vis/Phys, Margin 1.00 (0.85–1.16) CONSISTENT; Vis/Phys, Margin 1.06 (0.91–1.23) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: MEXT Prefectures | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | same children, different cells or series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 28 |
| Margin: MEXT Panel | (2) single-vaccine margin | 1.08 (0.96–1.22) | individual | r | margin: not eligible | same source series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 166 |
| Kink: Varicella Routine | (4) native event study / step / kink | -0.0205 (-0.0621 to 0.0211) | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort (harm predicts +) | weak first stage: False | overlapping cells | no | 405_pooled_kink_meta.csv | 7 |
| APC-Purged Kink 2014 | (4) native event study / step / kink | -0.0205 | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort | well supported: True; the calibrated version is the 405 row | overlapping cells | no | 341b_japan_apc_purged_kinks.csv | 16 |
| NC: Hear/Vis/Phys, Margin | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.00 (0.85–1.16) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: D5 Margins (3306); primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 114 |
| NC: Vis/Phys, Margin | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.06 (0.91–1.23) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: D5 Margins (3306); secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | 145 |

### Japan MR Second Dose (MEXT) (`JPN_MR2_MEXT`)

Kink only (no jump or hierarchy row). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APC-Purged Kink 2000 | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.0157 | native | log-rate slope change per birth cohort | well supported: False | overlapping cells | no | 341b_japan_apc_purged_kinks.csv | 2 |

### Japan Rotavirus 2020 / HPV 2013 (MEXT) (`JPN_RV_HPV_MEXT`)

Jump context (not estimable). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: MEXT Prefectures | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | same children, different cells or series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 31 |

### Sweden HepB (Norrbotten) (`SWE_HEPB`)

Synthetic-control context; hierarchy report-only block. Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block: F84 All Ages | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 1.32 (0.96–1.77) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: one_likelihood_per_series | same cells | no | project_results/global_integration/nordic_baltic_nl/blocks/SWE_HEPB_F84_allages/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| SDID: Norrbotten | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 1.16 (0.00–3.78) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 192 |
| SDID: Norrbotten (LSS) | (3) synthetic control / SDID | -0.0587 | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: convergence only | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 195 |

### Germany Rotavirus (East, Early) (`DEU_RV`)

Synthetic-control context (mostly discarded). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC: East, Stacked | (3) synthetic control / SDID | -0.3511 | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 201 |
| SC: Saxony | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 0.56 (0.00–5.42) | individual | r | sc: convergence only | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 202 |
| SC: BB+MV+TH | (3) synthetic control / SDID | -0.5078 | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 203 |
| SC: Schleswig-Holstein | (3) synthetic control / SDID | -0.1904 | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 204 |
| SC: East-5 Aggregate | (3) synthetic control / SDID | -0.3478 | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: discarded | same cells | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 205 |

### Spain Varicella (`ESP_VARICELLA`)

Jump context (not estimable); synthetic controls diagnostic or discarded. Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: Regions | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | no recorded overlap | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 48 |
| SC: Late Regions | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 0.0273 | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: convergence only | no recorded overlap | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 199 |
| SC: Madrid | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 0.0171 | native | log outcome gap, treated minus synthetic control (post-period mean) | sc: discarded | no recorded overlap | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 200 |
| Late vs Early Regions | (4) native event study / step / kink | 0.573 (0.296–1.112) | native | late-vs-early post RR | identification: failed: differential pretrend (score 0.05); diagnostic pass False | same source series | no | 149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv | 2 |

### Quebec MenB (Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean) (`QC_MENB`)

Synthetic-control context (discarded: invalid). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC: Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean | (3) synthetic control / SDID | 0.09 (0.00–1.12) | individual | r | sc: discarded | same children, different cells or series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 206 |

### France Mandate Extension (`FRA_MANDATE`)

Jump context (excluded; outcome not autism-specific). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: Departments | (2) jump | 0.89 (0.70–1.14) | individual | r | jump: excluded / family status: estimated (checker-corrected: band 15-19 added; outcome not autism-specific) | same source series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 51 |

### Chile PCV10 (`CHL_PCV`)

Hierarchy report-only context (CHL_PCV_F84 fails the D4 plasmode rule; jump not estimable). Injury negative controls: 3335 (NO BIAS DETECTED): All Injuries 0.95 (0.54–1.54) CONSISTENT || 3336 (CONSISTENT): All Injuries 0.95 (0.54–1.54) CONSISTENT; Head Injury 1.07 (0.62–1.76) CONSISTENT; Fractures 1.00 (0.60–1.66) CONSISTENT || 3347 (per context (see the task md)): WHO Unintentional 0.79 (0.40–1.49) CONSISTENT; WHO All Injuries 0.93 (0.46–1.69) CONSISTENT; WHO Land Transport 0.89 (0.44–1.73) CONSISTENT.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block: F84 Discharges | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 0.50 (0.17–1.57) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: plasmode; reported as a hierarchy sensitivity | own series | no | project_results/global_integration/americas/blocks/CHL_PCV_F84/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| Jump: National | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: hierarchy report-only context / family status: not_estimable | same source series | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 45 |
| NC: All Injuries | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.95 (0.54–1.54) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 2 |
| NC: External-Cause Injury | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.95 (0.54–1.56) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 3 |
| NC: Head Injury | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.07 (0.62–1.76) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 4 |
| NC: Fractures | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.00 (0.60–1.66) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 5 |
| NC: Intracranial | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.89 (0.50–1.54) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: single | different outcome, same design | no | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 6 |
| NC: Concussion | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.17 (0.39–2.95) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: single | different outcome, same design | no | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 7 |
| NC: Burns | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.90 (0.44–1.59) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: single | different outcome, same design | no | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 8 |
| NC: Poisoning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.37–1.59) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: single | different outcome, same design | no | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 9 |
| NC: Road Traffic | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.70 (0.34–1.36) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: single | different outcome, same design | no | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 10 |
| NC: Drowning | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.03 (0.43–2.15) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: single | different outcome, same design | no | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 11 |
| NC: Dog Bite | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.83 (0.41–1.52) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: single | different outcome, same design | no | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 12 |
| NC: Foreign Body | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.20 (0.65–2.16) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: single | different outcome, same design | no | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 13 |
| NC: All Injuries | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.95 (0.54–1.54) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 2 |
| NC: Head Injury | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.07 (0.62–1.76) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 3 |
| NC: Fractures | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.00 (0.60–1.66) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 4 |
| NC: Intracranial | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.89 (0.50–1.54) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 5 |
| NC: Concussion | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.17 (0.39–2.95) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 6 |
| NC: Forearm Fracture | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.01 (0.57–1.93) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 7 |
| NC: Skull/Face Fracture | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.21 (0.61–2.06) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 8 |
| NC: Burns | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.90 (0.44–1.59) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 9 |
| NC: Poisoning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.37–1.59) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 10 |
| NC: Accid. Poisoning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.90 (0.30–2.45) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 11 |
| NC: Transport Injury | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.70 (0.34–1.36) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 12 |
| NC: Dog Bite | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.83 (0.41–1.52) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 13 |
| NC: Drowning | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.03 (0.43–2.15) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 14 |
| NC: Foreign Body | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.20 (0.65–2.16) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 15 |
| NC: Falls | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.06 (0.62–1.81) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | 16 |
| NC: WHO Unintentional | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.79 (0.40–1.49) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: reading row | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 290 |
| NC: WHO All Injuries | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.93 (0.46–1.69) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 291 |
| NC: WHO Land Transport | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.89 (0.44–1.73) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 292 |
| NC: WHO Drowning | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.27 (0.60–2.30) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 293 |
| NC: WHO Falls | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.09 (0.34–3.10) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 294 |
| NC: WHO Burns | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.70 (0.26–1.79) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: component | different outcome, same design | no | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | 295 |

### Taiwan Varicella (`TWN_VARICELLA`)

Hierarchy report-only block (D4 fails: placebo). Injury negative controls: 3346 (NO BIAS DETECTED): Sensory+Physical 0.89 (0.73–1.04) CONSISTENT || 3385 (per context (see the task md)): Accident Deaths 0.91 (0.48–2.05) UNINFORMATIVE.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block: County Pupils | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 1.07 (0.87–1.44) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: placebo | own series | no | project_results/global_integration/asia_africa_oceania/blocks/TWN_VARICELLA_autism/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| NC: Sensory+Physical | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.89 (0.73–1.04) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3346_injury_negative_controls_taiwan.csv | 1 |
| NC: Visual | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.08 (0.77–1.80) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3346_injury_negative_controls_taiwan.csv | 4 |
| NC: Hearing | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.88 (0.68–1.09) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3346_injury_negative_controls_taiwan.csv | 7 |
| NC: Physical | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.88 (0.68–1.09) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3346_injury_negative_controls_taiwan.csv | 10 |
| NC: Limb Only | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.63–1.19) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: OUTSIDE_VERDICT / role: break_sensitivity | different outcome, same design | no | 3346_injury_negative_controls_taiwan.csv | 13 |
| NC: Accident Deaths | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.91 (0.48–2.05) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary | different outcome, same design | no | 3385_injury_negative_controls_col_hkg_jpn_twn_round2.csv | 548 |
| NC: Accident+Assault | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.96 (0.51–2.18) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: secondary | different outcome, same design | no | 3385_injury_negative_controls_col_hkg_jpn_twn_round2.csv | 549 |

### South Korea Schedule (`KOR_SCHEDULE`)

Hierarchy report-only block (D4 fails: placebo, pretrend, harm injection, plasmode). Injury negative controls: 3344 (CONSISTENT): Vis.+Hear.+Phys. 0.90 (0.56–1.50) CONSISTENT; Visual 1.13 (0.41–3.17) CONSISTENT; Hearing 0.98 (0.56–2.10) CONSISTENT; Physical 0.89 (0.53–1.78) CONSISTENT || 3345 (UNINFORMATIVE): External Causes 0.94 (0.25–3.50) UNINFORMATIVE.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block: Korea | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 0.53 (0.26–0.80) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: placebo, pretrend, harm_injection, plasmode | own series | no | project_results/global_integration/asia_africa_oceania/blocks/KOR_SCHEDULE_autism/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |
| NC: Vis.+Hear.+Phys. | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.90 (0.56–1.50) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: negative_control | different outcome, same design | no | 3344_injury_negative_controls_korea_nise.csv | 2 |
| NC: Visual | (5) negative-control outcome | 1.13 (0.41–3.17) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: negative_control | different outcome, same design | no | 3344_injury_negative_controls_korea_nise.csv | 3 |
| NC: Hearing | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.98 (0.56–2.10) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: negative_control | different outcome, same design | no | 3344_injury_negative_controls_korea_nise.csv | 4 |
| NC: Physical | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.89 (0.53–1.78) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: CONSISTENT / role: negative_control | different outcome, same design | no | 3344_injury_negative_controls_korea_nise.csv | 5 |
| NC: External Causes | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.94 (0.25–3.50) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: primary composite | different outcome, same design | no | 3345_injury_negative_controls_korea_who_mdb.csv | 4 |
| NC: Unintentional | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.90 (0.24–3.42) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: composite | different outcome, same design | no | 3345_injury_negative_controls_korea_who_mdb.csv | 7 |
| NC: Road Traffic | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.97 (0.25–3.74) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: single cause (task list) | different outcome, same design | no | 3345_injury_negative_controls_korea_who_mdb.csv | 10 |
| NC: Falls | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.95 (0.25–3.63) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: single cause (nearest analogue of head injury / fracture) | different outcome, same design | no | 3345_injury_negative_controls_korea_who_mdb.csv | 13 |
| NC: Drowning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.86 (0.22–3.37) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: single cause (task list) | different outcome, same design | no | 3345_injury_negative_controls_korea_who_mdb.csv | 16 |
| NC: Burns | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.94 (0.25–3.62) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: single cause (task list) | different outcome, same design | no | 3345_injury_negative_controls_korea_who_mdb.csv | 19 |
| NC: Accid. Poisoning | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.94 (0.25–3.61) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: single cause (task list) | different outcome, same design | no | 3345_injury_negative_controls_korea_who_mdb.csv | 22 |
| NC: Foreign Body | (5) negative-control outcome | 0.90 (0.24–3.44) | individual | r, negative-control outcome | documented class: UNINFORMATIVE / role: single cause (task list) | different outcome, same design | no | 3345_injury_negative_controls_korea_who_mdb.csv | 25 |

### Poland PCV (`POL_PCV`)

Hierarchy report-only block (D4 fails: pretrend). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block: SIO Enrolment | (1b) hierarchy block, not pooled | 1.00 (0.75–1.23) | individual | r | not pooled: D4 fails: pretrend | own series | no | project_results/global_integration/central_west_europe/blocks/POL_PCV_SIO_autism_enrol/unpooled.json | block, setting reference, prior reference |

### Taiwan PCV13 (`TWN_PCV13`)

Jump context (not estimable). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: Counties | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | possible overlap (not verified) | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 53 |

### New Zealand PCV / Rotavirus / Varicella (`NZL`)

Jump context (not estimable). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: National | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | no recorded overlap | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 44 |

### Latvia PCV / Rotavirus (`LVA`)

Jump context (not estimable). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: National | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | no recorded overlap | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 46 |

### Denmark PCV (`DNK`)

Jump context (not estimated). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: Municipalities | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded | no recorded overlap | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 50 |

### Italy PNPV 2017 (`ITA`)

Jump context (not estimated). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: Regions | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded | no recorded overlap | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 52 |

### Other International (Blocked) (`OTHER_INTL`)

Jump context (not estimated). Injury negative controls: none expected: no 3331-3346 task targets this context.

| Design | Class | Estimate (interval) | Scale | Unit | Status | Overlap | Drawn | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump: Blocked | (2) jump | NA | none |  | jump: excluded | possible overlap (not verified) | no | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 54 |

## Discarded, invalid, superseded or not-estimable designs (listed, never drawn)

| Context | Design | Estimate | Status | Source | Row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US_PCV | Jump: Massachusetts | NA | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 55 |
| US_PCV | Jump: California DDS | 0.77 (0.41–1.41) | jump: excluded / family status: INVALID (not identified; documentation only) | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 57 |
| US_RV2006 | Jump: ADDM | NA | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 16 |
| US_HIB_DEFERRAL | Jump: Hib Only | 1.01 (0.87–1.17) | superseded | 3304_hib_booster_deferral.csv | 9 |
| CAN_RV | Jump: Provinces | NA | jump: hierarchy pooled context / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 47 |
| CAN_RV | SC: Prince Edward Isl. | 3.64 (0.00–6.00) | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 182 |
| CAN_RV | SC: Manitoba | -0.2715 | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 187 |
| CAN_RV | SC: Alberta | -0.1489 | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 188 |
| CAN_RV | SC: Nova Scotia | NA | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 189 |
| SWE_RV | SDID: Jönköping (LSS) | 4.70 (1.13–9.03) | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 197 |
| SWE_RV | SDID: Stacked (LSS) | 3.77 (0.98–7.15) | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 198 |
| SWE_PCV | SDID: Early Counties | 0.7336 (0.5904–0.8704) | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 193 |
| ENG_MMR | Jump: England 1998-2003 | NA | jump: hierarchy report-only context / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 36 |
| ENG_MMR | Jump: LAs 2012-20 | NA | jump: hierarchy report-only context | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 37 |
| US_VARICELLA | SC: Varicella Mandates | NA | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 174 |
| US_HEPB | SC: HepB Mandates | NA | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 173 |
| US_PCV13_ROTA_MANDATES | Jump: Mandate States | NA | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 25 |
| US_THIMEROSAL | Jump: National | NA | jump: excluded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 22 |
| JPN_HIBPCV_MEXT | Jump: MEXT Prefectures | NA | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 27 |
| JPN_VZV_MEXT | Jump: MEXT Prefectures | NA | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 28 |
| JPN_RV_HPV_MEXT | Jump: MEXT Prefectures | NA | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 31 |
| DEU_RV | SC: East, Stacked | -0.3511 | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 201 |
| DEU_RV | SC: BB+MV+TH | -0.5078 | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 203 |
| DEU_RV | SC: Schleswig-Holstein | -0.1904 | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 204 |
| DEU_RV | SC: East-5 Aggregate | -0.3478 | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 205 |
| ESP_VARICELLA | Jump: Regions | NA | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 48 |
| ESP_VARICELLA | SC: Madrid | 0.0171 | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 200 |
| QC_MENB | SC: Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean | 0.09 (0.00–1.12) | sc: discarded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 206 |
| CHL_PCV | Jump: National | NA | jump: hierarchy report-only context / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 45 |
| TWN_PCV13 | Jump: Counties | NA | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 53 |
| NZL | Jump: National | NA | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 44 |
| LVA | Jump: National | NA | jump: excluded / family status: not_estimable | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 46 |
| DNK | Jump: Municipalities | NA | jump: excluded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 50 |
| ITA | Jump: Regions | NA | jump: excluded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 52 |
| OTHER_INTL | Jump: Blocked | NA | jump: excluded | 3309_jump_master_table.csv | 54 |

## Injury negative-control tasks 3331-3348 and round 2 (tasks 3380-3385)

Read at build time. A task counts once its csv and md are both written; its negative-control rows then enter as `negative_control_outcome` rows of the matching context (the task's primary rows drawn, components and sensitivities in the table only; a control reported identically by two tasks is drawn once), and `injury_nc_3331_3346` carries each context's status (the placeholder for tasks still running). Re-running this script picks up tables finished later. Tasks 3347, 3348 and round 2 (tasks 3380-3385) are read through the harmonized `3330_negative_control_summary.csv` (whose script asserts every round-2 value against its source file): round-2 reading rows on identical or closest cells are drawn, 3347 / 3348 rows are listed only. The column keeps its name for schema compatibility.

| Task | Script | Table | Context | Documented reading | Rows | Drawn | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3331 | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.py | 3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv | US_PCV, US_RotaShield, US_RV2006, US_VARICELLA, US_HEPA_2006, US_MMR | 10 primary injury estimates: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 6 CONSISTENT, 2 UNINFORMATIVE, 1 NOT VALIDATED | 37 | 1 | parsed |
| 3332 | 3332_injury_negative_controls_brazil.py | 3332_injury_negative_controls_brazil.csv | BRA_MDTPA | DESIGN BIAS DETECTED (r < 1) | 10 | 1 | parsed |
| 3333 | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.py | 3333_injury_negative_controls_uk.csv | ENG_RV, SCT_RV, NIR_RV | per context (see the task md) | 16 | 6 | parsed |
| 3334 | 3334_injury_negative_controls_europe.py | 3334_injury_negative_controls_europe.csv |  | per context (see the task md) | 0 | 0 | found; Norway / Estonia paired other-outcome blocks: not contexts of this panel |
| 3335 | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.py | 3335_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | CHL_PCV | NO BIAS DETECTED | 12 | 0 | parsed |
| 3336 | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.py | 3336_injury_negative_controls_chile_deis.csv | CHL_PCV | CONSISTENT | 15 | 0 | parsed |
| 3337 | 3337_injury_negative_controls_colombia_dane_school.py | 3337_injury_negative_controls_colombia_dane_school.csv | COL_VARICELLA | CONSISTENT | 1 | 1 | parsed |
| 3338 | 3338_injury_negative_controls_colombia_dane_school_census.py | 3338_injury_negative_controls_colombia_dane_school_census.csv | COL_VARICELLA | CONSISTENT | 3 | 2 | parsed |
| 3339 | 3339_injury_negative_controls_tanzania_best.py | 3339_injury_negative_controls_tanzania_best.csv | TZA_SCHEDULE | CONSISTENT | 1 | 1 | parsed |
| 3340 | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.py | 3340_injury_negative_controls_japan_mext.csv | JPN_JE, JPN_HEPB_MEXT, JPN_HIBPCV_MEXT, JPN_VZV_MEXT | CONSISTENT | 14 | 1 | parsed |
| 3341 | 3341_injury_negative_controls_japan_who_mdb.py | 3341_injury_negative_controls_japan_who_mdb.csv | JPN_MMR | CONSISTENT | 9 | 1 | parsed |
| 3342 | 3342_injury_negative_controls_hkg_edb_sen.py | 3342_injury_negative_controls_hkg_edb_sen.csv | HKG_PCV | System reading (rule written with the deciding estimate known): BIAS SIGNAL | 5 | 5 | parsed |
| 3343 | 3343_injury_negative_controls_hkg_who_mdb.py | 3343_injury_negative_controls_hkg_who_mdb.csv | HKG_PCV | UNINFORMATIVE -> NOT TESTABLE | 3 | 1 | parsed |
| 3344 | 3344_injury_negative_controls_korea_nise.py | 3344_injury_negative_controls_korea_nise.csv | KOR_SCHEDULE | CONSISTENT | 4 | 0 | parsed |
| 3345 | 3345_injury_negative_controls_korea_who_mdb.py | 3345_injury_negative_controls_korea_who_mdb.csv | KOR_SCHEDULE | UNINFORMATIVE | 8 | 0 | parsed |
| 3346 | 3346_injury_negative_controls_taiwan.py | 3346_injury_negative_controls_taiwan.csv | TWN_VARICELLA | NO BIAS DETECTED | 5 | 0 | parsed |
| 3347 | (via 3330 summary) | 3347_injury_negative_controls_global_mortality.csv | JPN_MMR, SCT_RV, SWE_PCV, DEU_PCV, BRA_MDTPA, CHL_PCV | per context (see the task md) | 33 | 0 | parsed (3330 harmonized rows) |
| 3348 | (via 3330 summary) | 3348_injury_negative_controls_germany_destatis.csv | DEU_PCV | UNINFORMATIVE | 33 | 0 | parsed (3330 harmonized rows) |
| 3380 | (via 3330 summary) | 3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv | ENG_RV, SCT_RV, NIR_RV, ENG_MMR | per control (see the task md) | 58 | 6 | parsed (3330 harmonized rows) |
| 3381 | (via 3330 summary) | 3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv | SWE_PCV, DEU_PCV, CZE_MMR | per context (see the task md) | 74 | 3 | parsed (3330 harmonized rows) |
| 3382 | (via 3330 summary) | 3382_injury_negative_controls_brazil_sim.csv | BRA_MDTPA | DESIGN BIAS DETECTED (r < 1) | 6 | 1 | parsed (3330 harmonized rows) |
| 3383 | (via 3330 summary) | 3383_injury_negative_controls_us_deaths.csv | US_PCV, US_RotaShield, US_RV2006 | US_PCV UNINFORMATIVE; US_RotaShield CONSISTENT | 6 | 2 | parsed (3330 harmonized rows) |
| 3384 | (via 3330 summary) | 3384_negative_controls_canada.csv | CAN_RV, QC_RV | CONSISTENT | 2 | 1 | parsed (3330 harmonized rows) |
| 3385 | (via 3330 summary) | 3385_injury_negative_controls_col_hkg_jpn_twn_round2.csv | JPN_MMR, HKG_PCV, COL_VARICELLA, TWN_VARICELLA | per context (see the task md) | 10 | 3 | parsed (3330 harmonized rows) |

## Figure

`08_figures/3362_convergence_panel.png`: 20 panels in three columns (19.7 x 18.1 in, 300 dpi); individual-scale rows only, on a common log axis from 0.2 to 6.5 (arrows: interval beyond the axis). Marker shape = design class; red = hierarchy (filled: own data; hollow: not-pooled block); slate = other same-contrast designs; grey X = negative-control outcomes; grey star = individual-level studies of other countries; hollow light markers = flagged; dashed whisker = 90% interval (Canadian synthetic controls). Native-scale rows stay in the table.

## Columns

`estimate`, `interval_low`, `interval_high` are on the scale named in `scale` / `unit` (`scale_kind` individual or native); `estimate_text` is their rounded form; `native_*` hold the design's native value when the row itself is an r; `interval_coverage` is nominal; `interval_type` says how the interval was built (calibrated or not); `plotted` / `plot_note` apply the drawing rule; `flagged` marks rows drawn hollow; `status` is the source status; `checker_status` quotes the checker / gate record; `crosscheck` records the check against the family or summary file; `overlap_level` / `overlap_detail` / `independence_note` say how much information the row shares with the context series; `source_file` / `source_row` (1-based data row, or a JSON path) / `source_key` locate the number; `injury_nc_3331_3346` is the per-context status of the injury negative-control tasks (name kept; it now also covers 3347-3348 and round 2, 3380-3385).

## Inputs (sha256)

- `project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json`: `e103ab7ab14be768603cc2c741373160b39698794d8c3081c873879612f480ca`
- `3320_final_synthesis.csv`: `fc17936342a91e732edde0afbb479e3e246fc201a58f96e70eff605b62f10203`
- `3320_final_synthesis.md`: `0fbd032f1e064b481344794b9f77c06b5146955554866afc67ec3c6367a65484`
- `project_results/global_integration/blocks.csv`: `c0c0f5ae6bc78bebb503a1b620c8f14688f411122da9bffaa247ca8a81993463`
- `project_results/global_integration/gate_decisions.json`: `688fc4cdb470029bdda7a95ce278e8feac5c547bd8f43e2adf415630e33cd1f4`
- `3309_jump_master_table.csv`: `9130c822c1ef3369cc5bc6072b3fc4ae2d6132e5ee8531cecdb11fed774ea56f`
- `3301_jump_first10_estimates.csv`: `2bb3fc7ade61395ae08710ddd8d7b9166432a964ff00130961675bd4ce1a9647`
- `3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4.csv`: `59a7713a1124c6919b12d70b3afa985c1416892c61e76319e71e83dec33ffbc1`
- `3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8.csv`: `d7daa6f8ac614aac15a67b22aaf7afd5402ed21894b92065122312caffc636e0`
- `3304_hib_booster_deferral.csv`: `9df02720670238e8c64cd7ebbbe7381cf20bc72961cc250eb6baf78495f7e753`
- `3306_interactions_uk_japan_other.csv`: `016164861b0742fd20a2c6cd926d4cfee02e69cd99f85a8bc8e369230bc857d6`
- `3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.csv`: `cf2c305e0c145db555721852e0663d9bd0cc6fff6df83f38cb91fa0a9ef3b8b8`
- `3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.md`: `730691ba1faa3b5c75dc28530e14d6f730a701fdb3c79cc624f790b331560d7f`
- `3311_synthetic_controls_international.csv`: `7dd9052be8a1a3f3b7d39e0c480c43421aaf818590b9e548fff3bbcf44616d47`
- `149_harmonized_event_estimates.csv`: `24a46555d74a7612f03f60c8072bf7691b2f5cc4bd44c7c97b09fccce78da896`
- `3202_pcv7_clean_reference_estimates.csv`: `885ee976b968720a3135f54dd2e508b4b8a5be04aae5a278fa2c7fd58f00e726`
- `405_pooled_kink_meta.csv`: `aacdb0c2d71656d1734025230c32fc44943086539b6362da774e0094647d9c60`
- `341b_japan_apc_purged_kinks.csv`: `9c92f16b46bddb401577c4e965992f0d6714b863fe74d4cfab5954cf7371adc0`
- `qa/conversion_review_20260923/conversion_register.csv`: `c68fac1b84d0e9d05e46149606a2e9f64c1aab28fbaff0dbcb6aff3591049abb`
- `150_summary_meta_analysis.csv`: `805fb5d57d8cee521b4585d69c95f6960433a431fed21037c9ae1d4275be1ee8`
- `2135_individual_family_meta.csv`: `53427768410746de23094629beeaf48b257790421c96bd96eae907aacb680cce`
- `2134_individual_effect_ledger.csv`: `9f1fa7c309baffee52af8687b9b8265d2cd157d90561444ec07e4f1227c17941`
- `3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.csv`: `75dccf6fb207b6f2ca726500c25c7c60a2af8799b349d919cfacc7f28c7e1086`
- `3326_us_core_negative_control_outcomes.json`: `f4225a916cbc80249b2916f3357cbdc368e20c4679c4561e3bb0545a87e73aef`
- `3331_injury_negative_controls_us.csv`: `96f101c8ccbf50e3e6bd7804f420b7ee23f62094623b7a5379c8b8023b02f49a`
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