{ "step": "stage 2b H4 final hierarchy, rebased on the lead decision of 2026-09-25 (U.S. rotavirus 2006 untied)", "estimand": "Conditional exponentiated shared mean log effect across products and contexts (individual-scale RR under the cohort-mixture likelihoods); not a population schedule RR, not an all-effects-null probability.", "headline": { "ratio_median": 0.9572190193273779, "ratio_low": 0.5987963353191895, "ratio_high": 1.5170319437916966, "p_above_1": 0.42537023764365867, "p_above_1_10": 0.27474886661253317, "p_above_1_25": 0.12580729275815938, "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 105.98429762851327, "power": 18, "seeds": [ 23091, 23092 ], "grid_points": 241, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5987237068668598, "ratio_median": 0.9569169798826951, "ratio_high": 1.51708622992912, "p_above_1": 0.4248704889297321, "p_above_1_10": 0.27440093649852926, "p_within_5pct": 0.16765046663889155, "boundary_mass": 1.8256427750190027e-21, "log_evidence": -6720.814422321516, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5801368069903149 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12598003346272182 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2043822795847554 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05334140643501104 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027237348463330657 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008922125064294944 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 444.4336072818007, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 966.3488935057236, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009297484322596904 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 931.8485920785245, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010520242268254078 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 924.655525540552, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010981287312203162 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 891.235899923783, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011759065991480761 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 838.6938641141695, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012836797544061616 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 815.7837554074239, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013211153396460102 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12567579065048962 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5992739018295445, "ratio_median": 0.959158940490861, "ratio_high": 1.5166847353925414, "p_above_1": 0.4285857734572892, "p_above_1_10": 0.27698755519950247, "p_within_5pct": 0.1685180526181279, "boundary_mass": 2.074480872179446e-20, "log_evidence": -6722.676066204895, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5859293419417544 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12396492975665226 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20126878145906088 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05231030999915545 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02738118067476548 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00914545616890649 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 100.78536070777989, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0971392177058, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01393852578022637 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.3382451204507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015561278648923167 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 577.1129858238808, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015913220039787585 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.83849386937106, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017865425938546432 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.38310528852907, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02375673170519068 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.4954725799496, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027768032626546407 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12665341746657355 } ], "untied_core_slots": [ "US_RV2006" ] }, "primary": { "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5987963353191895, "ratio_median": 0.9572190193273779, "ratio_high": 1.5170319437916966, "p_above_1": 0.42537023764365867, "p_above_1_10": 0.27474886661253317, "p_within_5pct": 0.16776716698152466, "boundary_mass": 4.370489281483865e-21, "log_evidence": -6721.363108242335, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5809159698968518 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12570897872159498 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2039634780978015 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.053202712045913925 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027256695558310888 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008952165679343812 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 105.98429762851327, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0971392177058, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009297484322596904 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.3382451204507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010520242268254078 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 577.1129858238808, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010981287312203162 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.83849386937106, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011759065991480761 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.38310528852907, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012836797544061616 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.4954725799496, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013211153396460102 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12580729275815938 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5987237068668598, "ratio_median": 0.9569169798826951, "ratio_high": 1.51708622992912, "p_above_1": 0.4248704889297321, "p_above_1_10": 0.27440093649852926, "p_within_5pct": 0.16765046663889155, "boundary_mass": 1.8256427750190027e-21, "log_evidence": -6720.814422321516, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5801368069903149 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12598003346272182 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2043822795847554 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05334140643501104 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027237348463330657 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008922125064294944 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 444.4336072818007, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 966.3488935057236, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009297484322596904 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 931.8485920785245, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010520242268254078 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 924.655525540552, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010981287312203162 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 891.235899923783, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011759065991480761 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 838.6938641141695, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012836797544061616 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 815.7837554074239, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013211153396460102 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12567579065048962 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5992739018295445, "ratio_median": 0.959158940490861, "ratio_high": 1.5166847353925414, "p_above_1": 0.4285857734572892, "p_above_1_10": 0.27698755519950247, "p_within_5pct": 0.1685180526181279, "boundary_mass": 2.074480872179446e-20, "log_evidence": -6722.676066204895, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5859293419417544 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12396492975665226 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20126878145906088 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05231030999915545 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02738118067476548 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00914545616890649 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 100.78536070777989, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0971392177058, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01393852578022637 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.3382451204507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015561278648923167 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 577.1129858238808, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015913220039787585 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.83849386937106, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017865425938546432 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.38310528852907, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02375673170519068 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.4954725799496, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027768032626546407 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12665341746657355 } ], "seconds": 250.0, "power": 18 }, "previous_screened_rv2006_pooled": { "file": "project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18_screened_rv2006_pooled.json", "sha256": "7385168a25295e154cd7977341e55f6ad81b146b0cb1443aa29f509d0c36bb56", "statement": "the stage 2b H4 result before the lead decision (U.S. rotavirus 2006 tied, break-screened)", "headline": { "ratio_median": 0.9536545537512817, "ratio_low": 0.6020880362472418, "ratio_high": 1.4956639206888698, "p_above_1": 0.4169031268276405, "p_above_1_10": 0.2639450686375735, "p_above_1_25": 0.11651626145481497, "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 104.548303732597, "power": 18 } }, "scope": { "contexts": 15, "original_outcome_blocks": 14, "original_cells": 5133, "frozen_contexts_omitted": [], "us_cells": 1469, "japan_cells": 9, "us_contexts_sharing_one_likelihood": [ "US_PCV", "US_RotaShield" ], "untied_core_slots": [ "US_RV2006" ], "previous": { "contexts": 12, "original_outcome_blocks": 11, "original_cells": 3316 }, "contexts_in_model": 15, "likelihoods": 14, "likelihood_list": [ "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "CZE_MMR_counts", "DEU_PCV", "ENG_RV_backfill", "HKG_PCV_autism", "Japan (Kohoku)", "NIR_RV", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "SCT_RV", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "U.S. joint series likelihood" ], "cells": 5133, "statement": "15 contexts in 14 likelihoods (5,133 cells): U.S. US_PCV, US_RotaShield share one likelihood (the joint U.S. series likelihood, 1,469 cells); US_RV2006 stays inside that likelihood as an untied effect (not pooled); every other context has its own likelihood" }, "per_context": [ { "id": "US_PCV", "key": "US_PCV", "kind": "core", "product": "PCV", "country": "United States", "drop": { "untie": [ "US_PCV" ] }, "likelihood": "U.S. joint series likelihood", "cells": 1469, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "PASS", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.7, "posterior": { "rr_median": 1.16466565956925, "rr_low": 0.9699002160442491, "rr_high": 1.3953492745954992, "p_above_1": 0.9477732599898563, "p_above_1_10": 0.7427816460306312, "p_above_1_25": 0.2252758321534717, "log_mean": 0.15216104763081578, "log_sd": 0.09204926122916185, "ess": 3109.2723230258684, "tied": true }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 1.16509568671068, "rr_low": 0.9696833352374257, "rr_high": 1.393345663580797, "p_above_1": 0.9479012239063797, "p_above_1_10": 0.7425149761591398, "log_mean": 0.15264204865113642, "log_sd": 0.09186768377226505, "source": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/us_alone_diagnostics_p18.json primary.us (U.S.-cells-only / Japan-only; N(0, log 2) priors)" } }, { "id": "US_RotaShield", "key": "US_RotaShield", "kind": "core", "product": "RotaShield", "country": "United States", "drop": { "untie": [ "US_RotaShield" ] }, "likelihood": "U.S. joint series likelihood", "cells": 1469, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "FAIL", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.7, "posterior": { "rr_median": 0.8586895489459959, "rr_low": 0.3341206015684022, "rr_high": 1.8534942222882, "p_above_1": 0.3354658258414262, "p_above_1_10": 0.24972757065166945, "p_above_1_25": 0.15061959103152822, "log_mean": -0.16963735941468278, "log_sd": 0.42694100557216025, "ess": 3109.2723230258716, "tied": true }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 0.8724637741351339, "rr_low": 0.3613856355589084, "rr_high": 1.8318282800910768, "p_above_1": 0.34897098857423936, "p_above_1_10": 0.2590385066304712, "log_mean": -0.14801873783064587, "log_sd": 0.4000796563037364, "source": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/us_alone_diagnostics_p18.json primary.us (U.S.-cells-only / Japan-only; N(0, log 2) priors)" } }, { "id": "JPN_MMR", "key": "JPN_MMR", "kind": "core", "product": "MMR", "country": "Japan", "drop": { "untie": [ "JPN_MMR" ] }, "likelihood": "Japan (Kohoku)", "cells": 9, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "PASS", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.7, "posterior": { "rr_median": 0.8459857516628109, "rr_low": 0.2602299779396595, "rr_high": 2.289952161077277, "p_above_1": 0.3835405429251646, "p_above_1_10": 0.32801636924644995, "p_above_1_25": 0.22651024133341607, "log_mean": -0.19298766287730681, "log_sd": 0.5653876767374707, "ess": 3109.2723230258694, "tied": true }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 0.849142012923104, "rr_low": 0.27929210843246727, "rr_high": 2.3215277590993155, "p_above_1": 0.3766849085714333, "p_above_1_10": 0.30882737173164254, "log_mean": -0.17739833791077253, "log_sd": 0.5367397797311435, "source": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/us_alone_diagnostics_p18.json primary.japan (U.S.-cells-only / Japan-only; N(0, log 2) priors)" } }, { "id": "SWE_PCV_corrected", "key": "SWE_PCV_corrected", "slot": "SWE_PCV", "kind": "replacement", "product": "PCV", "country": "Sweden", "drop": { "omit": [ "SWE_PCV_corrected" ], "frozen_omit": [ "SWE_PCV" ] }, "likelihood": "SWE_PCV_corrected", "cells": 756, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "PASS", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.7, "posterior": { "product": "PCV", "group": "care_bridge", "slot": "SWE_PCV", "rr_median": 1.0115762132175956, "rr_low": 0.7838071832665523, "rr_high": 1.5639301626594455, "p_above_1": 0.5332914039252002, "p_above_1_10": 0.2794793924147889, "p_above_1_25": 0.11530431696297916, "log_mean": 0.030429446415917015, "log_sd": 0.16622361150200443 }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 1.0120829739562482, "rr_low": 0.7855335707921993, "rr_high": 1.5552010707922153, "source": "the context's own curve with an N(0, log 2) prior (cohort_mixture_bayes.grid_posterior)" } }, { "id": "DEU_PCV", "key": "DEU_PCV", "slot": "DEU_PCV", "kind": "frozen", "product": "PCV", "country": "Germany", "drop": { "frozen_omit": [ "DEU_PCV" ] }, "likelihood": "DEU_PCV", "cells": 36, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component; its replacement DEU_PCV_rebuilt failed only the plasmode rule (sensitivity)", "two_sided_strict": "NOT_TESTABLE", "two_sided_bonferroni": "NOT_TESTABLE", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.7, "posterior": { "product": "PCV", "group": "care_bridge", "slot": "DEU_PCV", "rr_median": 1.0146421102427772, "rr_low": 0.21706738445744259, "rr_high": 4.660046718805158, "p_above_1": 0.5074422362942773, "p_above_1_10": 0.4575818096860388, "p_above_1_25": 0.3971492048426014, "log_mean": 0.012153850908756859, "log_sd": 0.7815947696263155 }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 1.0343795908505264, "rr_low": 0.26668619080349404, "rr_high": 3.9623260980585906, "source": "the context's own curve with an N(0, log 2) prior (cohort_mixture_bayes.grid_posterior)" } }, { "id": "HKG_PCV_autism", "key": "HKG_PCV_autism", "slot": "HKG_PCV_autism", "kind": "frozen", "product": "PCV", "country": "Hong Kong", "drop": { "frozen_omit": [ "HKG_PCV_autism" ] }, "likelihood": "HKG_PCV_autism", "cells": 60, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "PASS", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.7, "posterior": { "product": "PCV", "group": "HKG", "slot": "HKG_PCV_autism", "rr_median": 0.8907099037814641, "rr_low": 0.6547866956068511, "rr_high": 1.1643787479787515, "p_above_1": 0.18921718356373157, "p_above_1_10": 0.05463051555738853, "p_above_1_25": 0.00935442614597743, "log_mean": -0.12201866352112689, "log_sd": 0.14445085289875756 }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 0.8921130533460337, "rr_low": 0.6573407236309043, "rr_high": 1.1648726359379151, "source": "the context's own curve with an N(0, log 2) prior (cohort_mixture_bayes.grid_posterior)" } }, { "id": "ENG_RV_backfill", "key": "ENG_RV_backfill", "slot": "ENG_RV", "kind": "replacement", "product": "modern_rotavirus", "country": "England", "drop": { "omit": [ "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "frozen_omit": [ "ENG_RV" ] }, "likelihood": "ENG_RV_backfill", "cells": 128, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "PASS", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.35, "posterior": { "product": "modern_rotavirus", "group": "UK", "slot": "ENG_RV", "rr_median": 0.9437638766161865, "rr_low": 0.8640703582888459, "rr_high": 1.0224114373459008, "p_above_1": 0.07497630322209059, "p_above_1_10": 6.256754602419588e-05, "p_above_1_25": 1.6243650547510246e-10, "log_mean": -0.05898009942807337, "log_sd": 0.04162843020133993 }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 0.943299188414477, "rr_low": 0.8639443501186186, "rr_high": 1.0210343351223645, "source": "the context's own curve with an N(0, log 2) prior (cohort_mixture_bayes.grid_posterior)" } }, { "id": "SCT_RV", "key": "SCT_RV", "slot": "SCT_RV", "kind": "frozen", "product": "modern_rotavirus", "country": "Scotland", "drop": { "frozen_omit": [ "SCT_RV" ] }, "likelihood": "SCT_RV", "cells": 490, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "PASS", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.35, "posterior": { "product": "modern_rotavirus", "group": "UK", "slot": "SCT_RV", "rr_median": 1.1594632879062534, "rr_low": 0.48016599426125045, "rr_high": 2.818162285771789, "p_above_1": 0.6309879008533475, "p_above_1_10": 0.5454308214086633, "p_above_1_25": 0.43750962040892727, "log_mean": 0.14853280556118073, "log_sd": 0.4497095816025443 }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 1.551116436051276, "rr_low": 0.37644371698425594, "rr_high": 5.3145157466516055, "source": "the context's own curve with an N(0, log 2) prior (cohort_mixture_bayes.grid_posterior)" } }, { "id": "NIR_RV", "key": "NIR_RV", "slot": "NIR_RV", "kind": "frozen", "product": "modern_rotavirus", "country": "Northern Ireland", "drop": { "frozen_omit": [ "NIR_RV" ] }, "likelihood": "NIR_RV", "cells": 155, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "FAIL", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.35, "posterior": { "product": "modern_rotavirus", "group": "UK", "slot": "NIR_RV", "rr_median": 1.0118465116565256, "rr_low": 0.877985938218609, "rr_high": 1.154780776385372, "p_above_1": 0.5695013259616627, "p_above_1_10": 0.09775699260189052, "p_above_1_25": 0.0011970459323682556, "log_mean": 0.010540697043191471, "log_sd": 0.06870525729518351 }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 1.0119745566991272, "rr_low": 0.8775468389233712, "rr_high": 1.1552875416618062, "source": "the context's own curve with an N(0, log 2) prior (cohort_mixture_bayes.grid_posterior)" } }, { "id": "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "key": "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "slot": "CAN_RV_newly_identified", "kind": "replacement", "product": "modern_rotavirus", "country": "Canada", "drop": { "omit": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics" ], "frozen_omit": [ "CAN_RV_newly_identified" ] }, "likelihood": "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "cells": 166, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "FAIL", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.35, "posterior": { "product": "modern_rotavirus", "group": "Canada", "slot": "CAN_RV_newly_identified", "rr_median": 1.0216472272848938, "rr_low": 0.46000411197062185, "rr_high": 1.7666425042525113, "p_above_1": 0.5286816993276212, "p_above_1_10": 0.39341812260048686, "p_above_1_25": 0.2338696998104854, "log_mean": -0.018163196674343365, "log_sd": 0.3356654524542611 }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 0.9924155185486759, "rr_low": 0.32014119279493725, "rr_high": 1.8942723296748463, "source": "the context's own curve with an N(0, log 2) prior (cohort_mixture_bayes.grid_posterior)" } }, { "id": "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "key": "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "slot": "QC_RV_ASD", "kind": "replacement", "product": "modern_rotavirus", "country": "Canada", "drop": { "omit": [ "QC_RV_ASD_cnics" ], "frozen_omit": [ "QC_RV_ASD" ] }, "likelihood": "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "cells": 125, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "FAIL", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.35, "posterior": { "product": "modern_rotavirus", "group": "Canada", "slot": "QC_RV_ASD", "rr_median": 1.0580819571421047, "rr_low": 0.7455594472379866, "rr_high": 1.449675247551905, "p_above_1": 0.6320258433293647, "p_above_1_10": 0.4016191636809641, "p_above_1_25": 0.16044630904849297, "log_mean": 0.051933304705303614, "log_sd": 0.16872830202994762 }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 1.0667329427307406, "rr_low": 0.7412006648189031, "rr_high": 1.4755581927004227, "source": "the context's own curve with an N(0, log 2) prior (cohort_mixture_bayes.grid_posterior)" } }, { "id": "CZE_MMR_counts", "key": "CZE_MMR_counts", "slot": "CZE_MMR_counts", "kind": "frozen", "product": "MMR", "country": "Czechia", "drop": { "frozen_omit": [ "CZE_MMR_counts" ] }, "likelihood": "CZE_MMR_counts", "cells": 1078, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "PASS", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.7, "posterior": { "product": "MMR", "group": "Czechia", "slot": "CZE_MMR_counts", "rr_median": 0.99943307526962, "rr_low": 0.2842668948286185, "rr_high": 3.9989047852535493, "p_above_1": 0.4996622786552177, "p_above_1_10": 0.4420861030109409, "p_above_1_25": 0.3736097436617216, "log_mean": 0.016807383126749578, "log_sd": 0.6741697929254629 }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 1.0354679729114393, "rr_low": 0.3228385377599605, "rr_high": 3.6596001904421915, "source": "the context's own curve with an N(0, log 2) prior (cohort_mixture_bayes.grid_posterior)" } }, { "id": "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "key": "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "slot": "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "kind": "additional", "product": "MATERNAL_DTAP", "country": "Brazil", "drop": { "omit": [ "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism" ] }, "likelihood": "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "cells": 108, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "PASS", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.7, "posterior": { "product": "MATERNAL_DTAP", "group": "Brazil", "slot": "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "rr_median": 0.7610533694447934, "rr_low": 0.5076331804777253, "rr_high": 1.1410882949295358, "p_above_1": 0.0924157902777844, "p_above_1_10": 0.03636603167692099, "p_above_1_25": 0.008481498522149643, "log_mean": -0.2727530270203354, "log_sd": 0.20541889566794647 }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 0.7661837916151504, "rr_low": 0.5134401782608762, "rr_high": 1.1445337709366217, "source": "the context's own curve with an N(0, log 2) prior (cohort_mixture_bayes.grid_posterior)" } }, { "id": "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "key": "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "slot": "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "kind": "additional", "product": "VARICELLA", "country": "Colombia", "drop": { "omit": [ "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism" ] }, "likelihood": "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "cells": 504, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "PASS", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.35, "posterior": { "product": "VARICELLA", "group": "Colombia", "slot": "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "rr_median": 0.7779896381960921, "rr_low": 0.5392066855357228, "rr_high": 1.0828970980455073, "p_above_1": 0.060042744082598985, "p_above_1_10": 0.0203217288569414, "p_above_1_25": 0.0050373699226124, "log_mean": -0.2550110249509253, "log_sd": 0.17182369229456432 }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 0.7643875119060788, "rr_low": 0.5086763500587042, "rr_high": 1.0741368972457657, "source": "the context's own curve with an N(0, log 2) prior (cohort_mixture_bayes.grid_posterior)" } }, { "id": "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "key": "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "slot": "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "kind": "additional", "product": "SCHEDULE", "country": "Tanzania", "drop": { "omit": [ "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism" ] }, "likelihood": "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "cells": 49, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "reason": "passes every D4 component", "two_sided_strict": "PASS", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS", "pool_ready": null }, "bias_sd": 0.35, "posterior": { "product": "SCHEDULE", "group": "Tanzania", "slot": "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "rr_median": 1.0923219993622457, "rr_low": 0.5845027931826794, "rr_high": 1.6190873197865507, "p_above_1": 0.6408736148099289, "p_above_1_10": 0.4842160915423357, "p_above_1_25": 0.2748076127859016, "log_mean": 0.058402518721022485, "log_sd": 0.25677911361417727 }, "unpooled": { "rr_median": 1.117693683763147, "rr_low": 0.5425690683208275, "rr_high": 1.6869620888064532, "source": "the context's own curve with an N(0, log 2) prior (cohort_mixture_bayes.grid_posterior)" } } ], "untied_core_contexts": [ { "id": "US_RV2006", "kind": "core (untied)", "product": "modern_rotavirus", "country": "United States", "likelihood": "U.S. joint series likelihood", "cells": 1469, "bias_sd": 0.35, "prior": "centre-free N(0, PRIOR_VAR + tp^2 + vcore) (its tied prior with its own hypermean draw)", "posterior": { "rr_median": 0.9475982669089751, "rr_low": 0.7541509172073956, "rr_high": 1.1900967104890177, "p_above_1": 0.31090688780100545, "p_above_1_10": 0.10597212323038864, "p_above_1_25": 0.00914623931471898, "log_mean": -0.05460878224060863, "log_sd": 0.1183085364547631, "ess": 3109.2723230258784, "tied": false }, "gate": { "decision": "pool", "pool_ready": false, "pool_ready_conditions": [ "B4 checker verdict missing: reconciliation plan item 4 requires the B4 checker verdict (scratchpad jump_designs/expansion/chk_B4-us-rota-hepa-2006) before U.S. RV2006 is pooled", "future-3 verdict PASS rests on the EDFacts reporting-break screen (|log ratio|>log 2 and Poisson z>5), added after pilot p12/p14 eta estimates; without it the future-3 verdict is FAIL (eta4_gates_no_break_screen.json); the lead has not accepted the screen" ], "two_sided_strict": "FAIL", "two_sided_bonferroni": "PASS" }, "reason": "Lead decision (binding, 2026-09-25): U.S. rotavirus 2006 is NOT pool-ready under the pre-declared gate: its future+3 placebo includes 1 only after the post-hoc EDFacts reporting-break screen (without it the future+3 verdict is FAIL: project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/eta4_gates_no_break_screen.json) and the B4 checker verdict is missing (eta4_gates.json d4). It stays inside the joint U.S. likelihood (U.S. PCV and RotaShield remain adjusted for it) but is untied from the shared mean and the modern-rotavirus product in the primary and in every sensitivity; the screened-and-pooled version (the H4 reference) is the named sensitivity us_rv2006_screened_pooled.", "unpooled": { "rr_median": 0.9515638491210083, "rr_low": 0.7566640655071768, "rr_high": 1.1923040287649689, "p_above_1": 0.32483001816487944, "p_above_1_10": 0.10703949591014893, "log_mean": -0.05079077130180812, "log_sd": 0.11703853744458786, "source": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/us_alone_diagnostics_p18.json primary.us (U.S.-cells-only / Japan-only; N(0, log 2) priors)" } } ], "per_product": { "PCV": { "rr_median": 0.9673157290031321, "rr_low": 0.6096151728276933, "rr_high": 1.5552344730130958, "p_above_1": 0.43866668225068356, "p_above_1_10": 0.27347159337815413, "p_above_1_25": 0.12968083572435116, "log_mean": -0.0318744014898143, "log_sd": 0.23403747731541083 }, "MMR": { "rr_median": 0.953511093352577, "rr_low": 0.5271574300588411, "rr_high": 1.6412203442648046, "p_above_1": 0.41854056319375876, "p_above_1_10": 0.26669212575708107, "p_above_1_25": 0.13413776725970603, "log_mean": -0.05252940218466456, "log_sd": 0.27831524992846357 }, "modern_rotavirus": { "rr_median": 0.9799360714389654, "rr_low": 0.6705433118065655, "rr_high": 1.4492058813798316, "p_above_1": 0.4575046044134728, "p_above_1_10": 0.26867200800939917, "p_above_1_25": 0.10974159511075826, "log_mean": -0.018843435055955586, "log_sd": 0.19508262315148925 }, "MATERNAL_DTAP": { "rr_median": 0.9458611471367916, "rr_low": 0.5215489353794961, "rr_high": 1.5770384688706522, "p_above_1": 0.4040551877246839, "p_above_1_10": 0.2525293978446251, "p_above_1_25": 0.12230564106472373, "log_mean": -0.064121186271786, "log_sd": 0.27156171865093093 }, "VARICELLA": { "rr_median": 0.9273198667469432, "rr_low": 0.5454777094744307, "rr_high": 1.431761533713162, "p_above_1": 0.36312641324298767, "p_above_1_10": 0.20992518344104696, "p_above_1_25": 0.0872447824991023, "log_mean": -0.08608762619500529, "log_sd": 0.24010396676319243 }, "SCHEDULE": { "rr_median": 0.9737663172245725, "rr_low": 0.6001466086343477, "rr_high": 1.6065387091165961, "p_above_1": 0.4518389547669742, "p_above_1_10": 0.2879297958572813, "p_above_1_25": 0.14223804578310462, "log_mean": -0.025068801562638, "log_sd": 0.24544836069131362 }, "RotaShield": { "rr_median": 0.9510752819006844, "rr_low": 0.5208976024331243, "rr_high": 1.6238583568266316, "p_above_1": 0.41414511946470073, "p_above_1_10": 0.26262683795527136, "p_above_1_25": 0.13087335465933309, "log_mean": -0.05688103822489024, "log_sd": 0.27888700484532375 } }, "core_draw_posteriors": { "US_PCV": { "rr_median": 1.16466565956925, "rr_low": 0.9699002160442491, "rr_high": 1.3953492745954992, "p_above_1": 0.9477732599898563, "p_above_1_10": 0.7427816460306312, "p_above_1_25": 0.2252758321534717, "log_mean": 0.15216104763081578, "log_sd": 0.09204926122916185, "ess": 3109.2723230258684, "tied": true }, "US_RotaShield": { "rr_median": 0.8586895489459959, "rr_low": 0.3341206015684022, "rr_high": 1.8534942222882, "p_above_1": 0.3354658258414262, "p_above_1_10": 0.24972757065166945, "p_above_1_25": 0.15061959103152822, "log_mean": -0.16963735941468278, "log_sd": 0.42694100557216025, "ess": 3109.2723230258716, "tied": true }, "JPN_MMR": { "rr_median": 0.8459857516628109, "rr_low": 0.2602299779396595, "rr_high": 2.289952161077277, "p_above_1": 0.3835405429251646, "p_above_1_10": 0.32801636924644995, "p_above_1_25": 0.22651024133341607, "log_mean": -0.19298766287730681, "log_sd": 0.5653876767374707, "ess": 3109.2723230258694, "tied": true }, "US_RV2006": { "rr_median": 0.9475982669089751, "rr_low": 0.7541509172073956, "rr_high": 1.1900967104890177, "p_above_1": 0.31090688780100545, "p_above_1_10": 0.10597212323038864, "p_above_1_25": 0.00914623931471898, "log_mean": -0.05460878224060863, "log_sd": 0.1183085364547631, "ess": 3109.2723230258784, "tied": false }, "PCV_x_RotaShield": { "rr_median": 0.7920111286291291, "rr_low": 0.22388146799594405, "rr_high": 2.8480243834069547, "p_above_1": 0.34755103056910164, "p_above_1_10": 0.29191159857221305, "p_above_1_25": 0.22734780001779742, "log_mean": -0.2269983110330046, "log_sd": 0.6514097939298981, "ess": 3109.2723230258734, "tied": false } }, "posterior_method": "Per-context and per-product posteriors of the hierarchy (same model, same draws as fit()).\n\n Joint posterior over (scramble s, heterogeneity component k = (tp, tc), shared mean mu on g, core draw i):\n proportional to exp(value_{s,k}(mu) + log prior(mu)) x wn_i(mu) (component()'s own quantities).\n core contexts (eta columns): the draws weighted by that joint weight summed over mu.\n product p conditional on core column j: pi_p | mu, draw i ~ N(gain eta_ij + (1 - gain) mu, tp^2 vcore / total)\n x F_p(pi); core-free product: pi_p | mu ~ N(mu, tp^2) x F_p(pi). Accumulated on the curve grid as weighted\n histograms, smoothed with the same Gaussian filter as the model, times F_p.\n foreign context c in group G of product p: theta_c ~ L_c(theta) x smooth(B_{-c}, sd_c) where\n B_{-c}(beta) = [smooth(cavity_G, sigma_G) or cavity_G](beta) x prod_{c' in G, c' != c} f_c'(beta) and\n cavity_G = (product density without F_p) x prod_{G' != G} G'. Exact on the grid (same discretisation).\n Returns summaries and the log-RR densities; '_combined' holds the recomputed combined components (the caller checks\n them against fit()).", "scenarios": [ { "id": "reference", "category": "primary", "description": "Primary: core v2 (R_any PCV; U.S. rotavirus 2006 inside the joint U.S. likelihood but untied from the shared mean and the modern-rotavirus product (not pool-ready; lead decision 2026-09-25)), D3 calibrated bias SDs, D4-pooled blocks", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5987963353191895, "ratio_median": 0.9572190193273779, "ratio_high": 1.5170319437916966, "p_above_1": 0.42537023764365867, "p_above_1_10": 0.27474886661253317, "p_within_5pct": 0.16776716698152466, "boundary_mass": 4.370489281483865e-21, "log_evidence": -6721.363108242335, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5809159698968518 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12570897872159498 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2039634780978015 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.053202712045913925 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027256695558310888 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008952165679343812 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 105.98429762851327, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0971392177058, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009297484322596904 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.3382451204507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010520242268254078 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 577.1129858238808, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010981287312203162 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.83849386937106, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011759065991480761 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.38310528852907, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012836797544061616 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.4954725799496, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013211153396460102 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12580729275815938 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5987237068668598, "ratio_median": 0.9569169798826951, "ratio_high": 1.51708622992912, "p_above_1": 0.4248704889297321, "p_above_1_10": 0.27440093649852926, "p_within_5pct": 0.16765046663889155, "boundary_mass": 1.8256427750190027e-21, "log_evidence": -6720.814422321516, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5801368069903149 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12598003346272182 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2043822795847554 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05334140643501104 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027237348463330657 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008922125064294944 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 444.4336072818007, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 966.3488935057236, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009297484322596904 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 931.8485920785245, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010520242268254078 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 924.655525540552, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010981287312203162 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 891.235899923783, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011759065991480761 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 838.6938641141695, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012836797544061616 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 815.7837554074239, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013211153396460102 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12567579065048962 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5992739018295445, "ratio_median": 0.959158940490861, "ratio_high": 1.5166847353925414, "p_above_1": 0.4285857734572892, "p_above_1_10": 0.27698755519950247, "p_within_5pct": 0.1685180526181279, "boundary_mass": 2.074480872179446e-20, "log_evidence": -6722.676066204895, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5859293419417544 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12396492975665226 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20126878145906088 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05231030999915545 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02738118067476548 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00914545616890649 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 100.78536070777989, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0971392177058, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01393852578022637 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.3382451204507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015561278648923167 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 577.1129858238808, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015913220039787585 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.83849386937106, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017865425938546432 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.38310528852907, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02375673170519068 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.4954725799496, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027768032626546407 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12665341746657355 } ], "seconds": 250.0, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "core_v2_infant_lt7", "category": "D1 exposure (diagnostic)", "description": "R_lt7 infant PCV path on core v2 (portfolio_v2/core_v2/sensitivity/infant_lt7); pre-declared fallback TRIGGERED (core-v2 R_lt7 minimum relevant core ESS 22.7 at p20 < 50)", "power": 20, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/sensitivity/infant_lt7", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.6080653969938117, "ratio_median": 0.9707027576040476, "ratio_high": 1.5384420873104447, "p_above_1": 0.44904188080147733, "p_above_1_10": 0.29503544905688894, "p_within_5pct": 0.16940703438786497, "boundary_mass": 1.08315794405823e-21, "log_evidence": -6716.838080897941, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5765865159889717 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12854323466987494 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20394120250750852 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.054538946332032705 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02725235108094913 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00913774942083137 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 22.739716280900744, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 60.89661816547438, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.1155418669070117 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 48.59267065807802, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.13213496093096747 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 48.78097300117233, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.13197535449689562 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 41.80801415280388, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.14415695175047163 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 37.652345545496004, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.15299872516316723 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 34.60752797425383, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.1602225555751935 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1384743716038087 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.6075760276193654, "ratio_median": 0.9701859726677224, "ratio_high": 1.5381904489152418, "p_above_1": 0.44817041404606184, "p_above_1_10": 0.29437948331883357, "p_within_5pct": 0.1692447649499948, "boundary_mass": 8.113629575486146e-22, "log_evidence": -6716.236461561613, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5752101529376545 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12888502893500298 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20442375062942536 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05483397696255696 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02743889123821855 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009208199296839033 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 22.739716280900744, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 60.89661816547438, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.1155418669070117 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 48.59267065807802, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.13213496093096747 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 48.78097300117233, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.13197535449689562 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 41.80801415280388, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.14415695175047163 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 37.652345545496004, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.15299872516316723 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 34.60752797425383, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.1602225555751935 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13815190442674974 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6133879348235849, "ratio_median": 0.9760669342648379, "ratio_high": 1.541003211565512, "p_above_1": 0.4581341228650745, "p_above_1_10": 0.3018793122780755, "p_within_5pct": 0.17110003414880576, "boundary_mass": 3.918866585470865e-21, "log_evidence": -6718.5814606522035, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5909464740131538 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12497720512756777 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.19890665092505772 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.051460814099857484 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02530612851530786 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00840272731922585 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 198.88326891010323, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 263.8793472523394, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.029736928027539723 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 257.18021974655375, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02938058020223674 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 262.0146592621142, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.028907639692079344 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 256.012463561128, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.028465579419244456 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 258.10242272890156, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02684338939276262 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 251.4339637994028, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02696082153877619 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.14183875655242995 } ], "seconds": 724.1, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": true }, { "id": "core_v2_infant_lt7_p18_diagnostic", "category": "D1 exposure (diagnostic)", "description": "R_lt7 infant PCV path on core v2 (portfolio_v2/core_v2/sensitivity/infant_lt7) [p18 fit, kept as a diagnostic: minimum relevant core ESS 4.2 < 50, so core_v2_infant_lt7 is reported at p20]", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/sensitivity/infant_lt7", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.6029699754918094, "ratio_median": 0.9628502174553919, "ratio_high": 1.525340622457533, "p_above_1": 0.4352005185900092, "p_above_1_10": 0.28298105197844714, "p_within_5pct": 0.16868363051388413, "boundary_mass": 9.400498439419027e-22, "log_evidence": -6716.453315386048, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5683729316647759 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13035784538028908 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2066909019264061 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05637672489065314 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.028534071687552138 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00966752445035298 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 4.244123945140217, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 9.002636209380027, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.31021429590526856 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 7.536652061099327, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.34484020839899665 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 7.546373849746345, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.34461654313488144 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 6.704086900975086, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.3690580470748823 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 6.185452679322677, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.3866940329739886 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5.80655020918652, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.40065093460917034 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13079479905157376 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.602334227473713, "ratio_median": 0.9619814042509947, "ratio_high": 1.5242233461119952, "p_above_1": 0.43369049395416515, "p_above_1_10": 0.28173291103996034, "p_within_5pct": 0.1685286802563718, "boundary_mass": 7.713638166207225e-22, "log_evidence": -6715.823367732361, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5669695518326656 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1306946878734298 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20717802490315554 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05668214505826541 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02873045610319927 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009745134229446105 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 4.244123945140217, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 9.002636209380027, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.31021429590526856 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 7.536652061099327, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.34484020839899665 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 7.546373849746345, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.34461654313488144 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 6.704086900975086, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.3690580470748823 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 6.185452679322677, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.3866940329739886 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5.80655020918652, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.40065093460917034 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13006113541262698 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6133880045293113, "ratio_median": 0.9761804337967618, "ratio_high": 1.5415527562618823, "p_above_1": 0.45834643221795435, "p_above_1_10": 0.30211276789351493, "p_within_5pct": 0.17105873433133123, "boundary_mass": 3.525697869788092e-21, "log_evidence": -6718.553060014347, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5898841756615998 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12519466653752348 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.19922419835238192 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.051695192780615504 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.025523858069548298 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008477908598457626 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 41.88364382546991, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 48.8737571194308, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.11582525168412892 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 49.570250397307476, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.11403314428648487 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 50.735481866639475, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.11221362728841222 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 51.21937177915307, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.11017226359374337 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 54.12722740812877, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.10347668107268342 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 53.96691624811685, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.10160900674259148 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.14204051969294174 } ], "seconds": 249.4, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": "core_v2_infant_lt7", "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": true }, { "id": "core_infant_lt7_fallback", "category": "D1 exposure", "description": "R_lt7 infant PCV path, pre-declared fallback: R_lt7 core on the 353 IDEA cells (portfolio_v2/sensitivity/infant_lt7) + separate 1-D U.S. rotavirus 2006 block (714 cells, cohorts >= 2004; bias hypot(.35, .20)) kept UNTIED: its likelihood integrated against the centre-free prior N(0, PRIOR_VAR + tp^2 + tc^2 + b^2), not pooled (US_RV2006 untied); pre-declared fallback TRIGGERED (core-v2 R_lt7 minimum relevant core ESS 22.7 at p20 < 50)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/sensitivity/infant_lt7", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [ "US_RV2006_fallback_infant_lt7" ], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.6049863879338756, "ratio_median": 0.9648356278131334, "ratio_high": 1.5273551884873673, "p_above_1": 0.43859627359549713, "p_above_1_10": 0.2856765461180516, "p_within_5pct": 0.16917638960614234, "boundary_mass": 2.06333881005473e-21, "log_evidence": -6825.1580394729035, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5849226875394926 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12569942933405154 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20203891061072166 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05250076431025155 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.026220899588046187 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008617308617021499 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 2317.7918117549834, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3596.1741173087507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0029175604892803337 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3503.2493469481974, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.002873699646305178 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3545.065659581564, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00282964024079976 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3409.109841576344, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.002794517535105856 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3299.1845215304693, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0033014744716510875 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3150.549285305022, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003926326231007494 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13229217213740352 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.6051633973092967, "ratio_median": 0.9649992285636919, "ratio_high": 1.5275483756930128, "p_above_1": 0.4388758432204214, "p_above_1_10": 0.28589928941387177, "p_within_5pct": 0.1692176414577638, "boundary_mass": 2.1698208713055368e-21, "log_evidence": -6825.165743056988, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5852578696951918 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1256297695592566 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20193680987840795 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05242297674429565 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02616083889581409 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008591735227373875 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 2617.814423058731, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 4064.7844844266433, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0029175604892803337 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 4015.006365403151, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.002873699646305178 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 4054.1146489740922, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00282964024079976 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3955.1177088540803, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.002794517535105856 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3868.5090758401343, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0033014744716510875 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3715.7427277535044, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003926326231007494 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.132419653251578 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6048128071083579, "ratio_median": 0.9646744997958581, "ratio_high": 1.527164553555883, "p_above_1": 0.43832096212119176, "p_above_1_10": 0.28545719544581505, "p_within_5pct": 0.16913576606526115, "boundary_mass": 1.9584785868605194e-21, "log_evidence": -6825.150394780639, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5845926105743755 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1257680281145387 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20213945623761043 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05257736708668714 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.026280045490381928 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008642492496029365 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 2317.7918117549834, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3596.1741173087507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.004949598682733435 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3503.2493469481974, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.004675077344931475 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3545.065659581564, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.004608231468725042 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3409.109841576344, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.004413197570707252 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3299.1845215304693, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0041487118863528455 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3150.549285305022, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.004267660365530313 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13216663269910423 } ], "seconds": 136.8, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "core_any_1997_bound", "category": "D1 exposure", "description": "1997 cohort bounded at the NIS-2001 late-catch-up share (core v2)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/sensitivity/any_1997_bound", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5962003294180159, "ratio_median": 0.95408260972789, "ratio_high": 1.5120839477683874, "p_above_1": 0.41990386909861543, "p_above_1_10": 0.2701909137529168, "p_within_5pct": 0.16721527783925416, "boundary_mass": 6.303935999287928e-21, "log_evidence": -6720.6464381695705, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5783524554375417 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12604061291685653 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2049179730649196 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05373747925406251 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027786657641559853 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0091648216853321 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 57.18803361595188, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 330.546372214721, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.03316720828542588 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 306.4766140215568, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.03735550975014173 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 295.9717422296642, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.038918005447977126 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 280.98958999021465, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.04155409666961618 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 179.47431558956447, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.04519625030198511 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 147.81105017446708, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.04643041250233844 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12303439089498547 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5964387675305064, "ratio_median": 0.9538594610722165, "ratio_high": 1.5118684841685603, "p_above_1": 0.41949885906710693, "p_above_1_10": 0.26984914270174665, "p_within_5pct": 0.1671986662325629, "boundary_mass": 2.0642395448897528e-21, "log_evidence": -6720.080583523573, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5784421650071474 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12619605521394678 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2051251467244429 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05369037412723279 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02751643076547605 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009029828161596308 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 89.45992468343384, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 330.546372214721, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.03316720828542588 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 306.4766140215568, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.03735550975014173 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 295.9717422296642, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.038918005447977126 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 280.98958999021465, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.04155409666961618 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 260.0332583694199, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.04519625030198511 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 252.87767244844142, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.04643041250233844 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12284693416926717 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5944413207872198, "ratio_median": 0.9557310171383108, "ratio_high": 1.5136501990043298, "p_above_1": 0.4228873856607249, "p_above_1_10": 0.27270857877917165, "p_within_5pct": 0.16733764765687548, "boundary_mass": 3.753576633862168e-20, "log_evidence": -6722.077529625782, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5776916076395471 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12489554333357024 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20339182310154716 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.054084480352859385 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029777290706275952 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010159254865964789 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 54.78411549444445, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 424.4331318457525, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02183968418783005 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 371.4344449938181, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.021160334376404723 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 360.1904260199528, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.021404304931261654 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 300.2694003990411, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02031295776219438 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 179.47431558956447, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.03502043431855675 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 147.81105017446708, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.04257398895241747 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12441529557301156 } ], "seconds": 256.2, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "rotashield_untied", "category": "tying", "description": "U.S. RotaShield untied from the shared mean (centre-free prior)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006", "US_RotaShield" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5983822740708865, "ratio_median": 0.9646606386980962, "ratio_high": 1.542822141894347, "p_above_1": 0.4394527563583561, "p_above_1_10": 0.28910701258094784, "p_within_5pct": 0.1660503122696454, "boundary_mass": 6.52819417943637e-20, "log_evidence": -6721.569734901903, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5709715557866166 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12751810148785053 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20693175832356311 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05529270554797308 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029483895423892664 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009801983430086328 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 162.62396518434346, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 479.6572285529934, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009915067235197339 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 398.30218967906825, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010919955059254558 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 398.2974983185346, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011003398253533497 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 332.5624608417337, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011723768242512327 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 242.91784496917765, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012419966530326478 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 213.05546722918132, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012839666427261963 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13685457885892016 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.598206411117713, "ratio_median": 0.9643672206338914, "ratio_high": 1.5426774353907935, "p_above_1": 0.4389670066839414, "p_above_1_10": 0.28874262086880353, "p_within_5pct": 0.1659592547725291, "boundary_mass": 3.689016547250174e-20, "log_evidence": -6721.0218948892725, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5707541620148643 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.127646196874469 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20714013452131755 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.055320688059593025 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029393278381489217 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009745540148601635 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 572.5048163706338, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 891.9973928017713, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009915067235197339 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 866.6075909849684, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010919955059254558 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 867.1381229495009, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011003398253533497 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 842.6283133832421, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011723768242512327 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 811.5125446303225, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012419966530326478 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 792.9257999586303, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012839666427261963 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13667618124936542 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5995343961845016, "ratio_median": 0.9665339460122788, "ratio_high": 1.5437392998013209, "p_above_1": 0.4425586774841026, "p_above_1_10": 0.29143696147522313, "p_within_5pct": 0.1666325409747666, "boundary_mass": 2.468211635821788e-19, "log_evidence": -6722.877267080532, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5723615884400326 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1266990496423994 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2055993847398025 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.055113783196584595 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.030063307827454692 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.01016288615347474 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 162.62396518434346, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 479.6572285529934, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.020982347377340477 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 398.30218967906825, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.025507498624067544 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 398.2974983185346, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.025438391248902743 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 332.5624608417337, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02961081177818943 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 242.91784496917765, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.03849070770692541 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 213.05546722918132, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0413262632092493 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.137995267021231 } ], "seconds": 202.5, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "us_core_untied", "category": "tying", "description": "Whole U.S. core untied: U.S. PCV, RotaShield and rotavirus 2006 (their products core-free; Japan MMR stays tied)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_PCV", "US_RV2006", "US_RotaShield" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5874276758037376, "ratio_median": 0.9540908899023245, "ratio_high": 1.5365876582238667, "p_above_1": 0.4223463348992158, "p_above_1_10": 0.2765225514049312, "p_within_5pct": 0.16231825653066795, "boundary_mass": 1.9145076493876368e-19, "log_evidence": -6721.848939054418, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5664854784174537 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13192401020420336 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20735829018178337 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.057553951321528865 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027185945994339586 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009492323880850626 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 154.50640921466285, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 468.39645834161684, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010353383515090464 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 390.7390035620958, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01130077344583399 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 388.68229133205887, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011436269970082888 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 325.7381925727133, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012087729687416235 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 237.5307028204026, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012758458416324744 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 209.169593945787, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013119645822891376 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13064980872144272 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.587208876022125, "ratio_median": 0.953669473903054, "ratio_high": 1.5362282605563216, "p_above_1": 0.4216501572183696, "p_above_1_10": 0.27597779291693825, "p_within_5pct": 0.16221066822553215, "boundary_mass": 1.0533121203136348e-19, "log_evidence": -6721.300559080436, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5663346619448634 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1320307207356748 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2075493410862655 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05756294837666867 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027090284877941104 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009432042978630508 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 520.4956673633416, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 876.5308630563699, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010353383515090464 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 854.3397734061035, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01130077344583399 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 851.4348539018982, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011436269970082888 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 830.136673240301, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012087729687416235 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 798.7286955582408, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012758458416324744 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 782.8225013055852, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013119645822891376 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13035594762830838 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5888654417909257, "ratio_median": 0.9567948153254061, "ratio_high": 1.5389222955262774, "p_above_1": 0.42681558778084283, "p_above_1_10": 0.28001973827151627, "p_within_5pct": 0.1630089413313714, "boundary_mass": 7.443125854068426e-19, "log_evidence": -6723.1599306971875, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5674536751476802 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13123896044827768 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20613180040916165 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05749619291337521 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02780006180396583 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00987930927749105 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 154.50640921466285, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 468.39645834161684, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.021111876899357864 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 390.7390035620958, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.025569163474313702 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 388.68229133205887, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02555521722551296 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 325.7381925727133, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.029657828661518212 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 237.5307028204026, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.03857810839154219 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 209.169593945787, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.041346772576530265 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13253630921408344 } ], "seconds": 118.9, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "us_rv2006_untied", "category": "tying", "description": "U.S. rotavirus 2006 untied (the modern-rotavirus product core-free): the synthesis without pooling US_RV2006, whose pool_ready conditions are open (the primary since the lead decision of 2026-09-25)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5987963353191895, "ratio_median": 0.9572190193273779, "ratio_high": 1.5170319437916966, "p_above_1": 0.42537023764365867, "p_above_1_10": 0.27474886661253317, "p_within_5pct": 0.16776716698152466, "boundary_mass": 4.370489281483865e-21, "log_evidence": -6721.363108242335, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5809159698968518 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12570897872159498 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2039634780978015 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.053202712045913925 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027256695558310888 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008952165679343812 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 105.98429762851327, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0971392177058, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009297484322596904 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.3382451204507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010520242268254078 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 577.1129858238808, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010981287312203162 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.83849386937106, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011759065991480761 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.38310528852907, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012836797544061616 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.4954725799496, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013211153396460102 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12580729275815938 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5987237068668598, "ratio_median": 0.9569169798826951, "ratio_high": 1.51708622992912, "p_above_1": 0.4248704889297321, "p_above_1_10": 0.27440093649852926, "p_within_5pct": 0.16765046663889155, "boundary_mass": 1.8256427750190027e-21, "log_evidence": -6720.814422321516, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5801368069903149 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12598003346272182 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2043822795847554 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05334140643501104 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027237348463330657 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008922125064294944 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 444.4336072818007, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 966.3488935057236, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009297484322596904 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 931.8485920785245, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010520242268254078 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 924.655525540552, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010981287312203162 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 891.235899923783, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011759065991480761 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 838.6938641141695, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012836797544061616 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 815.7837554074239, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013211153396460102 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12567579065048962 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5992739018295445, "ratio_median": 0.959158940490861, "ratio_high": 1.5166847353925414, "p_above_1": 0.4285857734572892, "p_above_1_10": 0.27698755519950247, "p_within_5pct": 0.1685180526181279, "boundary_mass": 2.074480872179446e-20, "log_evidence": -6722.676066204895, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5859293419417544 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12396492975665226 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20126878145906088 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05231030999915545 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02738118067476548 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00914545616890649 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 100.78536070777989, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0971392177058, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01393852578022637 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.3382451204507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015561278648923167 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 577.1129858238808, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015913220039787585 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.83849386937106, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017865425938546432 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.38310528852907, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02375673170519068 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.4954725799496, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027768032626546407 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12665341746657355 } ], "seconds": 0.0, "same_as": "reference", "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "us_rv2006_fallback_block", "category": "tying", "description": "U.S. rotavirus 2006 as the pre-declared 1-D fallback block (714 cells, bias hypot(.35, .20)) on the pre-H2 R_any core (353 IDEA cells) instead of eta4, with US_RV2006 untied as everywhere: the block stays in the model UNTIED (its likelihood integrated against the centre-free prior N(0, PRIOR_VAR + tp^2 + tc^2 + b^2)), never pooled; core_v1_R_any is the same core without the block, the pooled block is us_rv2006_fallback_block_pooled", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [ "US_RV2006_fallback_primary" ], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.595871937473703, "ratio_median": 0.953035040913768, "ratio_high": 1.5108259179705676, "p_above_1": 0.4180491634270118, "p_above_1_10": 0.2686382982692328, "p_within_5pct": 0.16706858849218348, "boundary_mass": 6.60136475242326e-21, "log_evidence": -6827.673059371343, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5802398954014624 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12561466378557837 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20439739303131943 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05332858184667229 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027414283505873847 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009005182429540959 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 2715.348364539062, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5495.881988616948, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003626634831952013 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5418.417408621137, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003362003765648054 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5432.143688532202, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0032938767951425857 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5298.156814097136, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0031152978885828804 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5113.860828065719, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0032108503147463916 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 4927.960683325868, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003580910759662513 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1221361932533147 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5959637799827054, "ratio_median": 0.9530493235906828, "ratio_high": 1.5106865336771838, "p_above_1": 0.4180554030379119, "p_above_1_10": 0.2686126427537474, "p_within_5pct": 0.16710740889725778, "boundary_mass": 7.5817312279148e-21, "log_evidence": -6827.6768997266945, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5804407845442975 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1255790969763781 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20433597681349486 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05328471077726638 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02737139357064269 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008988037318129532 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 2715.348364539062, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5613.320373565763, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003626634831952013 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5530.15349002454, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003362003765648054 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5530.791692436937, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0032938767951425857 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5372.3785424609505, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0031152978885828804 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5130.4766756461295, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0032108503147463916 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 4927.960683325868, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003580910759662513 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12209557758961498 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5957809661037798, "ratio_median": 0.9530208608375522, "ratio_high": 1.5109641085081211, "p_above_1": 0.41804297146621083, "p_above_1_10": 0.2686637578609916, "p_within_5pct": 0.16703006454727737, "boundary_mass": 5.6284850512035e-21, "log_evidence": -6827.669233707915, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5800405403901713 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12564995898124437 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20445834023114262 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05337211788540316 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027456845903090377 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009022196608702768 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 2748.8983443467805, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5495.881988616948, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.002335184149169659 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5418.417408621137, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0022851296586274797 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5432.143688532202, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0022407504475318403 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5298.156814097136, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.002199635919524282 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5113.860828065719, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0020829140288165814 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 4944.719572047504, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0020516104141946987 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12217649874779202 } ], "seconds": 137.1, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "us_rv2006_screened_pooled", "category": "US_RV2006 pooled (not pool-ready)", "description": "U.S. rotavirus 2006 TIED to the shared mean and the modern-rotavirus product (eta4 through the product) on the break-screened core v2: the H4 reference. Not pool-ready: the future+3 placebo includes 1 only after the post-hoc EDFacts reporting-break screen, and the B4 checker verdict is missing", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.6020880362472418, "ratio_median": 0.9536545537512817, "ratio_high": 1.4956639206888698, "p_above_1": 0.4169031268276405, "p_above_1_10": 0.2639450686375735, "p_within_5pct": 0.17157977146922054, "boundary_mass": 3.324986072299619e-21, "log_evidence": -6720.722805807942, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.59223609815524 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10640737374241117 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21277846146975085 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.04616151232279486 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.033467592536006834 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008948961773661973 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 104.548303732597, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 695.518418933609, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009206352872629673 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 601.8356210927261, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010622007847328238 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 578.2219638792217, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0101681261093195 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 489.05010587594757, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011409355534851982 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 334.2171627986084, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01127005110518337 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 281.58526641942353, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012316311078685622 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.11651626145481497 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.601604613861624, "ratio_median": 0.9528649624193287, "ratio_high": 1.4952400974863032, "p_above_1": 0.41554972202300233, "p_above_1_10": 0.2629566524724003, "p_within_5pct": 0.17129987687544385, "boundary_mass": 1.5832648412566527e-21, "log_evidence": -6720.176865768868, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.591372618137538 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10683417301272286 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2131222024583787 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.04634447204058457 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.03340347300442373 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008923061346162992 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 276.6374663019417, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 968.5679904760578, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009206352872629673 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 928.4939453049799, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010622007847328238 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 950.8878857603324, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0101681261093195 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 902.6540373052542, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011409355534851982 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 878.6023625446715, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01127005110518337 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 838.8218809076611, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012316311078685622 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.11606178181926252 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6052704849570492, "ratio_median": 0.958616299435994, "ratio_high": 1.4982642128338415, "p_above_1": 0.42543690107561727, "p_above_1_10": 0.27017743931317706, "p_within_5pct": 0.17334462206552909, "boundary_mass": 1.430725518923923e-20, "log_evidence": -6722.01827400518, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5976806950066439 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10371622870611258 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21061103307973977 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0450078760103005 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.03387189256917066 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009112274627612873 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 99.60099981778112, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 695.518418933609, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013973261813823879 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 601.8356210927261, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01521171735139558 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 578.2219638792217, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015944233341981497 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 489.05010587594757, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017900200494566077 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 334.2171627986084, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02349580155250741 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 281.58526641942353, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02770349876283888 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.11938194258553181 } ], "seconds": 344.8, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": true, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "us_rv2006_fallback_block_pooled", "category": "US_RV2006 pooled (not pool-ready)", "description": "U.S. rotavirus 2006 pooled as the pre-declared 1-D fallback block (714 cells, bias hypot(.35, .20)) on the pre-H2 R_any core (353 IDEA cells) instead of eta4: the H4 us_rv2006_fallback_block", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2", "untie": [], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill", "US_RV2006_fallback_primary" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.600676647153042, "ratio_median": 0.954457107005612, "ratio_high": 1.49982650940732, "p_above_1": 0.4188336008493123, "p_above_1_10": 0.26632349660901766, "p_within_5pct": 0.17076249126369009, "boundary_mass": 5.633957719576029e-21, "log_evidence": -6827.089115326681, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5863008699497217 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10880575606545141 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21411170166479876 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.047656812092307176 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.03384849523550619 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009276364991765287 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 2715.348364539062, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5495.828866454931, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0036408498232890323 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5421.716057469934, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0033716917680768252 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5431.812330988905, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003293128536598825 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5297.813429886402, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0031144982400477536 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5111.570013180696, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0032158978608462056 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 4924.2978569810875, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003587096650871938 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.11844745516116484 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.6007679344335083, "ratio_median": 0.9544712208640259, "ratio_high": 1.4996943080951342, "p_above_1": 0.4188411956085525, "p_above_1_10": 0.26630013270794195, "p_within_5pct": 0.17080020386978684, "boundary_mass": 6.4766733159182916e-21, "log_evidence": -6827.09293475689, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.58650897872547 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10877592255928145 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2140447229132286 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.04761705253036351 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.033794818056894826 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009258505215031168 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 2715.348364539062, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5614.447105107471, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0036408498232890323 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5534.686899743532, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0033716917680768252 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5530.007793425171, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003293128536598825 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5371.624834114911, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0031144982400477536 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5127.584136488096, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0032158978608462056 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 4924.2978569810875, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003587096650871938 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.11840979506212401 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6005862168148075, "ratio_median": 0.9544430942823662, "ratio_high": 1.499957590989917, "p_above_1": 0.4188260637748338, "p_above_1_10": 0.26634668305340925, "p_within_5pct": 0.17072506509752916, "boundary_mass": 4.797642831675852e-21, "log_evidence": -6827.085310429032, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5860943418307651 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10883536297620278 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21417817169046793 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.04769626966705505 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.0339017647179239 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009294089117495985 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 2748.8983443467805, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5495.828866454931, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.002342845356608057 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5421.716057469934, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0022916416813718856 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5431.812330988905, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0022416246236586146 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5297.813429886402, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00220058334338767 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5111.570013180696, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.002082305520703323 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 4941.760324796784, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0020509003774267496 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.11848482921813697 } ], "seconds": 240.3, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": true, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "japan_diffuse_kernel", "category": "kernel", "description": "Japan MMR likelihood with trend variance 16 and noise_sd .5 (was 4 and .25)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/sensitivity/japan_diffuse", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.6035151626699897, "ratio_median": 0.9651210028819276, "ratio_high": 1.5322633028402883, "p_above_1": 0.43941472600921483, "p_above_1_10": 0.2871286077837887, "p_within_5pct": 0.16835307667979377, "boundary_mass": 3.946968465110173e-21, "log_evidence": -6722.055175968022, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5784113042057476 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12632593124707853 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2044460992601789 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.053739319404608424 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027881540819388248 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009195805063132226 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 115.26463273830564, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 610.1169482614005, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.007356520446869533 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 481.98694181169486, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008297780743540905 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 480.4437587652414, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008638859382677446 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 384.91678871480383, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009227911606006492 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 267.06416407847075, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010768531203324402 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 230.03088109522096, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01111570723942804 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1338814373269318 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.6037105640546356, "ratio_median": 0.9652502537976397, "ratio_high": 1.532830063449993, "p_above_1": 0.4396624274634777, "p_above_1_10": 0.28740192798715236, "p_within_5pct": 0.16830704592657714, "boundary_mass": 1.5369631331303705e-21, "log_evidence": -6721.501743455117, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5779158507453126 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1265563777925257 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20477704226611654 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05381559976598235 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02779701090952094 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009138118520439 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 522.895641906971, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1013.8399926024379, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.007356520446869533 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 988.2332784163605, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008297780743540905 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 984.1306277982, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008638859382677446 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 956.7145923877064, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009227911606006492 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 905.8098539467976, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010768531203324402 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 886.6399164022868, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01111570723942804 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1341139751069491 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.602169336287803, "ratio_median": 0.9642616289555574, "ratio_high": 1.5284627786333227, "p_above_1": 0.4377627842660131, "p_above_1_10": 0.2853058124572736, "p_within_5pct": 0.16866005962803615, "boundary_mass": 2.001949585966746e-20, "log_evidence": -6723.399225936646, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5817155248259229 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12478906393559855 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20223901263688737 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05323059928610492 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.028445277867524394 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009580521447524469 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 109.5924438386855, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 610.1169482614005, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.016609776325371896 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 481.98694181169486, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.022766264779708167 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 480.4437587652414, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.022172900884662772 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 384.91678871480383, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02711280530409422 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 267.06416407847075, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.03317634438379277 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 230.03088109522096, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.035402267011553606 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13233062339904522 } ], "seconds": 259.8, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "core_bias_japan_only", "category": "D3 bias", "description": "Core bias SDs [.15, .15, .70] (the <4-breakpoint rule for Japan only); U.S. rotavirus 2006 keeps its calibrated .35", "power": 20, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "japan_only", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.652766024375512, "ratio_median": 1.00018988445993, "ratio_high": 1.5058831661884977, "p_above_1": 0.5003649347642618, "p_above_1_10": 0.322951872317218, "p_within_5pct": 0.19040234334781975, "boundary_mass": 2.0577941544852502e-22, "log_evidence": -6720.269524495953, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.6635315595858946 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10186575323787586 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.17461707314294217 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.03678650461183559 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.018031734391037987 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.005167375030418473 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 9.270774882165055, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 2649.8210033377327, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.004972560042661272 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1930.3613113781385, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.005727154998593821 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 2014.3025349210352, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.005210028893437148 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1429.9333322809032, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.005461808854227142 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 948.4144301163788, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.004813787925840222 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 772.813118417013, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0050484824147970534 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.14076782565000534 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.6511189668331495, "ratio_median": 1.0006418704861295, "ratio_high": 1.50894444109456, "p_above_1": 0.501226456205095, "p_above_1_10": 0.3245907513564539, "p_within_5pct": 0.1893517057237003, "boundary_mass": 5.958214430109776e-23, "log_evidence": -6719.76488454738, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.6553005083481793 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10411973854576509 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.1784392846873482 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.03803338382679621 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.01873864151306051 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.005368443078596415 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 578.0129155200532, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 2828.4961443720927, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.004972560042661272 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3135.273155781773, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.005727154998593821 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3378.2733124851425, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.005210028893437148 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3294.514295750734, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.005461808854227142 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3417.671991191932, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.004813787925840222 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 3231.1486605137156, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0050484824147970534 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1423732766746757 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.660949965500406, "ratio_median": 0.998082478016464, "ratio_high": 1.4906409473898654, "p_above_1": 0.4962119397276996, "p_above_1_10": 0.31505159706820196, "p_within_5pct": 0.19546697973576133, "boundary_mass": 9.105286099088882e-22, "log_evidence": -6721.337769652419, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.7032096375942951 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.09100033613657497 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.15619196516462544 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.030775878589571516 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.014624063229327244 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.004198119285255281 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 13.367531835897095, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 2649.8210033377327, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009733622035701467 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1930.3613113781385, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010141905243104632 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 2014.3025349210352, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010187417705321195 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1429.9333322809032, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014877406799286024 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 948.4144301163788, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02098397302568652 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 772.813118417013, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.023358396860919367 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13302869134672324 } ], "seconds": 746.1, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": true }, { "id": "core_bias_japan_only_p18_diagnostic", "category": "D3 bias (diagnostic)", "description": "Core bias SDs [.15, .15, .70] (the <4-breakpoint rule for Japan only); U.S. rotavirus 2006 keeps its calibrated .35 [p18 fit, kept as a diagnostic: minimum relevant core ESS 45.4 < 50, so core_bias_japan_only is reported at p20]", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "japan_only", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.6525714035549054, "ratio_median": 0.9995536710440402, "ratio_high": 1.5045900239447791, "p_above_1": 0.49914167056077996, "p_above_1_10": 0.3217509485120693, "p_within_5pct": 0.19053627876202078, "boundary_mass": 1.794042546520248e-22, "log_evidence": -6720.26808241504, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.662474962960224 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10213215657316484 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.17503456808011117 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.03695115021586902 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.018186362874039654 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.005220799296650312 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 45.40235533855865, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 868.3378630731717, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01011981697469989 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 810.2789074198788, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010414839434431932 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 826.8453625815795, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010354966672900513 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 616.3962464539159, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009707881209138881 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 476.6447035979889, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010759543926635466 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 391.8111799328928, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011885084855481341 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13995886649660627 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.6513939465707327, "ratio_median": 1.0005801182702623, "ratio_high": 1.5089536970369817, "p_above_1": 0.5011090907176653, "p_above_1_10": 0.32442583743723585, "p_within_5pct": 0.18945457607470106, "boundary_mass": 5.188790673755357e-23, "log_evidence": -6719.75545693006, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.6546875122771878 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10427370337718793 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.1786186833063657 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.03814052182538692 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.01886702284519221 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.005412556368717248 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 172.8874396526872, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 868.3378630731717, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01011981697469989 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 972.0645115307457, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010414839434431932 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1009.450572342589, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010354966672900513 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 985.4133332406149, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009707881209138881 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 946.9282730300091, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010759543926635466 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 891.5980644769861, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011885084855481341 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.14227902398415881 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6586017915921303, "ratio_median": 0.9945569460249685, "ratio_high": 1.481358167503288, "p_above_1": 0.48919727517378164, "p_above_1_10": 0.30823062699092074, "p_within_5pct": 0.19600378359385157, "boundary_mass": 8.239401853940641e-22, "log_evidence": -6721.375742925363, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.7018369103198754 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.09130763183465151 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.1569185297758001 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.03093942897482006 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.014745942761629964 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.004251556333354606 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 58.761784840109556, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1403.9521831000438, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008221670719251598 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 810.2789074198788, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01570574251359229 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 826.8453625815795, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01601233333964516 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 616.3962464539159, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.018951874659817448 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 476.6447035979889, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.020457555433194625 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 391.8111799328928, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02133043084062626 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12823154768486622 } ], "seconds": 268.7, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": "core_bias_japan_only", "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": true }, { "id": "published_bias_sd", "category": "D3 bias", "description": "Published bias SDs: core [.15, .15, .25], builder .35 / .70, Czech .70, new blocks their class; U.S. rotavirus 2006 .35 (no published value)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "published", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.654294850864944, "ratio_median": 0.9991778635897427, "ratio_high": 1.4989883583008576, "p_above_1": 0.49840823846584104, "p_above_1_10": 0.31997681401939304, "p_within_5pct": 0.1917682649308977, "boundary_mass": 9.422936940549174e-23, "log_evidence": -6720.056342018026, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.6742324610603665 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.09918800023441868 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.1700517160843552 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0349891140039576 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.01677835076287676 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0047603578539977594 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 77.00714218756413, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 569.7986815460309, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.016704180038912633 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 880.18000914693, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009370657618185481 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 919.3140427171256, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008913834144049757 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 895.7721404931557, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008630756861840503 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 720.8078712188637, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009264750832604867 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 596.8391818746513, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010747054274845548 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13785094707030554 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.6504921864975338, "ratio_median": 1.0007674358500078, "ratio_high": 1.5082588531646501, "p_above_1": 0.501464219645809, "p_above_1_10": 0.3249623045675444, "p_within_5pct": 0.18908318614054598, "boundary_mass": 2.567936242348856e-23, "log_evidence": -6719.612593797429, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.6541040249760758 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10465834056144796 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.17928763066458941 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.03806528057590319 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.018589659326928257 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.005295063895125857 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 77.00714218756413, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 569.7986815460309, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.016704180038912633 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 880.18000914693, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009370657618185481 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 919.3140427171256, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008913834144049757 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 991.3196819862163, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008630756861840503 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 994.9246985147951, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009264750832604867 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 941.1649122913605, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010747054274845548 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.14254963535792964 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6682275151705195, "ratio_median": 0.993929690025548, "ratio_high": 1.4637985019560977, "p_above_1": 0.48761939777274343, "p_above_1_10": 0.30237603046302486, "p_within_5pct": 0.20124767125297183, "boundary_mass": 3.362384202748847e-22, "log_evidence": -6720.874005415312, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.7452939230024196 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.07987550226747447 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.13744522893908487 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.024129010771785073 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.010383704201684617 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0028726308178593654 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 182.88289908427828, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1878.148139656638, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008993055612718914 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1122.002791267288, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008984623044766165 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1165.6611279479994, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009203273556850947 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 895.7721404931557, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012314813299053547 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 720.8078712188637, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013262192177357612 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 596.8391818746513, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014390178188488022 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12126269065832218 } ], "seconds": 267.5, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "with_plasmode_only_failures", "category": "D4 gate", "description": "Include the blocks failing only the plasmode rule (DEU_PCV_rebuilt replacing DEU_PCV, CHL_PCV_F84)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "CHL_PCV_F84", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "DEU_PCV_rebuilt", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5610030416463454, "ratio_median": 0.895614688779963, "ratio_high": 1.417107434968187, "p_above_1": 0.31677518656726067, "p_above_1_10": 0.1872230867554282, "p_within_5pct": 0.1535520114560851, "boundary_mass": 1.8339544423723348e-20, "log_evidence": -7160.226795003619, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5568134953818336 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1305946631553485 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21302533155177117 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.059807444011485786 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02931742024554966 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010441645654023992 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 95.71491307784348, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 633.917145514315, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010767261857038767 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 526.0536681817151, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012185279278443432 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 540.2742644346573, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01198489709044474 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 438.16229139120117, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012874520187920143 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 322.9060815173704, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01292824991367987 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 267.723337933239, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01341625266294908 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.07565710693476724 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.561024120801351, "ratio_median": 0.8952937664584768, "ratio_high": 1.416947634358468, "p_above_1": 0.3162611859050706, "p_above_1_10": 0.18688301852543787, "p_within_5pct": 0.15339880925733929, "boundary_mass": 7.70586022605974e-21, "log_evidence": -7159.677629609628, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5564000321770262 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13085584931719224 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21326193085793044 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05987433695393064 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029227910022429547 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010379940671129519 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 424.37281323479544, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 939.1435092930184, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010767261857038767 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 892.5427961232962, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012185279278443432 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 913.015868267584, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01198489709044474 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 870.0748353391617, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012874520187920143 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 853.5926364688552, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01292824991367987 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 822.9394718900687, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01341625266294908 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.07552660384170151 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5608647381309156, "ratio_median": 0.8976878510580056, "ratio_high": 1.4181254518790305, "p_above_1": 0.3200942519059313, "p_above_1_10": 0.18941901520062698, "p_within_5pct": 0.15454128665561906, "boundary_mass": 8.700461674493473e-20, "log_evidence": -7161.542843553632, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5594833584618574 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1289081012486319 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21149753477199287 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05937549506067396 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02989541615262427 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.01084009430399657 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 91.16746732590201, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 633.917145514315, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01492756498370976 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 526.0536681817151, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.018159869732296857 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 540.2742644346573, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017803122839838002 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 438.16229139120117, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.019854035049851535 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 322.9060815173704, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.025481742304188447 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 267.723337933239, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.029847920203308825 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.07649980681030766 } ], "seconds": 264.1, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "strict_two_sided_gate", "category": "D4 gate", "description": "Drop every pooled context failing the strict two-sided placebo family: US_RotaShield, NIR_RV, CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics, QC_RV_ASD_cnics (core contexts untied)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006", "US_RotaShield" ], "omit": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics" ], "frozen_omit": [ "CAN_RV_newly_identified", "NIR_RV", "QC_RV_ASD" ], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "US_RotaShield", "NIR_RV", "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5696523761099084, "ratio_median": 0.9544918081964094, "ratio_high": 1.5956878024024241, "p_above_1": 0.4283812340373512, "p_above_1_10": 0.29134965841080407, "p_within_5pct": 0.15140506471683246, "boundary_mass": 5.067264690989652e-19, "log_evidence": -6756.155601354079, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.47256509549772374 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.18908273634600786 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.19504457174247347 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.09348095716021648 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.030816728790796416 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.019009910463137075 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 156.03877667660777, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 476.2023708613493, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01015309682865372 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 396.0418810314482, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011017498857928406 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 397.07788295459727, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011062762038938318 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 332.2865553267654, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011696169672208502 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 242.9279212946308, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012411468724991938 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 213.51069689776202, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012775094630198582 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1488300356239859 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5694782382095231, "ratio_median": 0.9541439608583102, "ratio_high": 1.5955584615451082, "p_above_1": 0.4278581369212563, "p_above_1_10": 0.2909567419683071, "p_within_5pct": 0.15130117160376666, "boundary_mass": 2.8661773859278553e-19, "log_evidence": -6755.6074484936635, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.47245218155640495 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.18924627547989395 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.19519601024963612 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.09349830871841133 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.03071202574372038 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.018895198251818998 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 559.4801200225447, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 890.4501841282761, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01015309682865372 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 865.5429705343937, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011017498857928406 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 866.2766742904712, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011062762038938318 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 843.22302637777, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011696169672208502 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 811.7038688915873, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012411468724991938 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 794.5657113808501, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012775094630198582 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.14863082930808835 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5707974030453462, "ratio_median": 0.956717345704537, "ratio_high": 1.5965099143073562, "p_above_1": 0.431733711411865, "p_above_1_10": 0.29386782079980334, "p_within_5pct": 0.15207090534222362, "boundary_mass": 1.9173814244817794e-18, "log_evidence": -6757.465136222714, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.4732887497122016 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1880346303067273 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.19407401741587696 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.09336975274972732 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.03148776020257047 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.01974508961278356 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 152.63300316279125, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 476.2023708613493, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02087768399191299 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 396.0418810314482, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.025369047648502334 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 397.07788295459727, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.025378659011565205 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 332.2865553267654, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.029543974786271843 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 242.9279212946308, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.03847307455078011 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 213.51069689776202, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.041347403581249095 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.15010672908663447 } ], "seconds": 213.1, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "bonferroni_two_sided_gate", "category": "D4 gate", "description": "Drop every pooled context failing the Bonferroni two-sided placebo family: none fails (identical to the primary) (core contexts untied)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5987963353191895, "ratio_median": 0.9572190193273779, "ratio_high": 1.5170319437916966, "p_above_1": 0.42537023764365867, "p_above_1_10": 0.27474886661253317, "p_within_5pct": 0.16776716698152466, "boundary_mass": 4.370489281483865e-21, "log_evidence": -6721.363108242335, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5809159698968518 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12570897872159498 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2039634780978015 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.053202712045913925 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027256695558310888 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008952165679343812 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 105.98429762851327, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0971392177058, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009297484322596904 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.3382451204507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010520242268254078 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 577.1129858238808, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010981287312203162 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.83849386937106, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011759065991480761 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.38310528852907, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012836797544061616 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.4954725799496, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013211153396460102 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12580729275815938 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5987237068668598, "ratio_median": 0.9569169798826951, "ratio_high": 1.51708622992912, "p_above_1": 0.4248704889297321, "p_above_1_10": 0.27440093649852926, "p_within_5pct": 0.16765046663889155, "boundary_mass": 1.8256427750190027e-21, "log_evidence": -6720.814422321516, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5801368069903149 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12598003346272182 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2043822795847554 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05334140643501104 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027237348463330657 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008922125064294944 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 444.4336072818007, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 966.3488935057236, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009297484322596904 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 931.8485920785245, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010520242268254078 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 924.655525540552, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010981287312203162 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 891.235899923783, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011759065991480761 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 838.6938641141695, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012836797544061616 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 815.7837554074239, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013211153396460102 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12567579065048962 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5992739018295445, "ratio_median": 0.959158940490861, "ratio_high": 1.5166847353925414, "p_above_1": 0.4285857734572892, "p_above_1_10": 0.27698755519950247, "p_within_5pct": 0.1685180526181279, "boundary_mass": 2.074480872179446e-20, "log_evidence": -6722.676066204895, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5859293419417544 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12396492975665226 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20126878145906088 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05231030999915545 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02738118067476548 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00914545616890649 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 100.78536070777989, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0971392177058, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01393852578022637 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.3382451204507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015561278648923167 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 577.1129858238808, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015913220039787585 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.83849386937106, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017865425938546432 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.38310528852907, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02375673170519068 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.4954725799496, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027768032626546407 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12665341746657355 } ], "seconds": 0.0, "same_as": "reference", "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_US_PCV", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without US_PCV (core; untied: its data stay in the joint likelihood but no longer inform the shared mean or its product)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_PCV", "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "US_PCV" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5881555517539857, "ratio_median": 0.9468296342247238, "ratio_high": 1.510614542753533, "p_above_1": 0.4084259776097745, "p_above_1_10": 0.26247163389924066, "p_within_5pct": 0.1638471370873067, "boundary_mass": 1.3587394688425356e-20, "log_evidence": -6721.640639489892, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5764470233864251 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1300496676202137 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20436086929711528 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05536184141362183 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02511738963976101 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00866320864322808 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 99.91902502814801, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 657.4564981414686, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009911331908410691 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 570.3727936844699, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011090699338115816 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 554.4786871303494, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011609194338472562 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 467.41219541159785, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012306300969822615 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 322.7883711855295, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013293749373332418 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 272.9498523408048, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013599564262785255 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1199181993768581 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5880603969683018, "ratio_median": 0.9463923028829297, "ratio_high": 1.5104301720363027, "p_above_1": 0.4076980282634063, "p_above_1_10": 0.26192918635756024, "p_within_5pct": 0.1637122617001464, "boundary_mass": 5.377941479049136e-21, "log_evidence": -6721.091274240379, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5757722007488392 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1302952107606645 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20474797882727158 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05547654133080207 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.025081769648900062 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008626298683585734 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 389.0299788827657, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 943.9039494540182, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009911331908410691 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 912.7824656521609, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011090699338115816 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 901.611597216611, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011609194338472562 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 872.3724001199313, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012306300969822615 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 821.6775798120389, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013293749373332418 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 802.0835308540647, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013599564262785255 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.11966432976392405 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5887805566836465, "ratio_median": 0.9496560640960214, "ratio_high": 1.5117889577489714, "p_above_1": 0.4131335929387764, "p_above_1_10": 0.2659796174905782, "p_within_5pct": 0.16471937008439796, "boundary_mass": 6.66775553765776e-20, "log_evidence": -6722.957979532998, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5808110707036231 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12846175129347914 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2018574495638168 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05462008226352658 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.025347742501249843 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008901903674221119 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 96.09118939426342, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 657.4564981414686, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014422703962684557 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 570.3727936844699, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015951443575662413 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 554.4786871303494, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.016292367181295304 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 467.41219541159785, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.018193602296408897 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 322.7883711855295, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.024433681725097186 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 272.9498523408048, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.028428257312520258 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1215599626244045 } ], "seconds": 179.0, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_US_RotaShield", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without US_RotaShield (core; untied: its data stay in the joint likelihood but no longer inform the shared mean or its product)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006", "US_RotaShield" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "US_RotaShield" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5983822740708865, "ratio_median": 0.9646606386980962, "ratio_high": 1.542822141894347, "p_above_1": 0.4394527563583561, "p_above_1_10": 0.28910701258094784, "p_within_5pct": 0.1660503122696454, "boundary_mass": 6.52819417943637e-20, "log_evidence": -6721.569734901903, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5709715557866166 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12751810148785053 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20693175832356311 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05529270554797308 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029483895423892664 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009801983430086328 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 162.62396518434346, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 479.6572285529934, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009915067235197339 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 398.30218967906825, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010919955059254558 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 398.2974983185346, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011003398253533497 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 332.5624608417337, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011723768242512327 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 242.91784496917765, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012419966530326478 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 213.05546722918132, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012839666427261963 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13685457885892016 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.598206411117713, "ratio_median": 0.9643672206338914, "ratio_high": 1.5426774353907935, "p_above_1": 0.4389670066839414, "p_above_1_10": 0.28874262086880353, "p_within_5pct": 0.1659592547725291, "boundary_mass": 3.689016547250174e-20, "log_evidence": -6721.0218948892725, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5707541620148643 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.127646196874469 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20714013452131755 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.055320688059593025 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029393278381489217 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009745540148601635 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 572.5048163706338, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 891.9973928017713, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009915067235197339 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 866.6075909849684, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010919955059254558 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 867.1381229495009, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011003398253533497 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 842.6283133832421, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011723768242512327 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 811.5125446303225, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012419966530326478 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 792.9257999586303, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012839666427261963 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13667618124936542 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5995343961845016, "ratio_median": 0.9665339460122788, "ratio_high": 1.5437392998013209, "p_above_1": 0.4425586774841026, "p_above_1_10": 0.29143696147522313, "p_within_5pct": 0.1666325409747666, "boundary_mass": 2.468211635821788e-19, "log_evidence": -6722.877267080532, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5723615884400326 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1266990496423994 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2055993847398025 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.055113783196584595 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.030063307827454692 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.01016288615347474 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 162.62396518434346, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 479.6572285529934, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.020982347377340477 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 398.30218967906825, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.025507498624067544 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 398.2974983185346, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.025438391248902743 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 332.5624608417337, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02961081177818943 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 242.91784496917765, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.03849070770692541 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 213.05546722918132, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0413262632092493 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.137995267021231 } ], "seconds": 0.0, "same_as": "rotashield_untied", "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_JPN_MMR", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without JPN_MMR (core; untied: its data stay in the joint likelihood but no longer inform the shared mean or its product)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "JPN_MMR", "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "JPN_MMR" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.6019817812054709, "ratio_median": 0.9661182158224774, "ratio_high": 1.5404344410249682, "p_above_1": 0.44159369087565603, "p_above_1_10": 0.2900764969815771, "p_within_5pct": 0.16725299328624782, "boundary_mass": 1.3311092641212323e-20, "log_evidence": -6721.50790714793, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.575843631305979 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12689987049875723 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20533680981635727 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05439705629845845 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02816297443424438 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009359657646305156 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 123.56367047682059, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 435.6838451144083, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010359123602118062 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 375.3010035755893, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011239965400872106 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 371.922867773275, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011484556357446994 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 322.83015885286005, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012106070127880033 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 236.11098431053543, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013238390739545348 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 209.52418682166487, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013551736002994506 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1367320152311392 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.6022955168367227, "ratio_median": 0.9663655736994246, "ratio_high": 1.5408334939555364, "p_above_1": 0.4420198305518357, "p_above_1_10": 0.2904407028287407, "p_within_5pct": 0.16728928940911658, "boundary_mass": 7.690125291713252e-21, "log_evidence": -6720.959648471641, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5763586947475992 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12692524717272732 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2053342593840742 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.054282476887313344 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027873281204436606 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009226040603695801 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 636.0687529839392, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 914.5165934579367, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010359123602118062 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 878.5193218786627, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011239965400872106 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 876.9623990136944, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011484556357446994 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 845.658934522807, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012106070127880033 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 791.1588134960376, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013238390739545348 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 772.1682561994144, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013551736002994506 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13696462271855647 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5999937606599934, "ratio_median": 0.9645319938233303, "ratio_high": 1.537836647357786, "p_above_1": 0.4388604614054217, "p_above_1_10": 0.2877405066705294, "p_within_5pct": 0.16702019254458145, "boundary_mass": 4.9363576063405665e-20, "log_evidence": -6722.818120445933, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5725400511498401 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1267371063227365 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20535316810675763 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05513196046414513 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.030021046135356205 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010216667821596312 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 118.19883442466796, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 435.6838451144083, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.021299841625223054 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 375.3010035755893, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.021950642287627015 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 371.922867773275, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.021985890158739987 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 322.83015885286005, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.024490356800069404 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 236.11098431053543, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02997911010851777 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 209.52418682166487, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.031733182094210305 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1352400874086913 } ], "seconds": 178.5, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_SWE_PCV_corrected", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without SWE_PCV_corrected (replacement; omitted)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [ "SWE_PCV_corrected" ], "frozen_omit": [ "SWE_PCV" ], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "SWE_PCV_corrected" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5921795157998408, "ratio_median": 0.9541319449007925, "ratio_high": 1.5237793309695702, "p_above_1": 0.42118435530972875, "p_above_1_10": 0.2733667851398486, "p_within_5pct": 0.1648133093711055, "boundary_mass": 1.0219142116511817e-20, "log_evidence": -6309.949238404045, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5616716447684726 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13274910178385513 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20739967016149202 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05872830742564475 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029076101379708556 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010375174480570709 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 101.87448403347278, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 678.3719534865786, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00938783769544567 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 586.6323907011406, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010610195217282296 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 574.7623541579324, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011031595183909605 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 483.7935633578963, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01181066429556786 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 335.966148595432, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012827611428307401 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 282.9466388408649, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01320689955699554 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12677911490534888 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5921365767659033, "ratio_median": 0.9538347261473169, "ratio_high": 1.5238715335716961, "p_above_1": 0.42070278378206327, "p_above_1_10": 0.27303531438254547, "p_within_5pct": 0.16469628061220082, "boundary_mass": 4.328193574419338e-21, "log_evidence": -6309.400449822265, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5609099341229479 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13302488578010213 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2078030113326127 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0588724325186428 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02905108652486283 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010338649720721925 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 449.8121385231347, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 965.2745643313445, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00938783769544567 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 930.3188430894029, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010610195217282296 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 924.5254463666039, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011031595183909605 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 890.6259395523472, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01181066429556786 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 839.7243446273536, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012827611428307401 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 816.4554063692835, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01320689955699554 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12665865818663968 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5924615880462819, "ratio_median": 0.9560425925693034, "ratio_high": 1.5231885697133576, "p_above_1": 0.4242853001165895, "p_above_1_10": 0.2755011981282215, "p_within_5pct": 0.16556688324609325, "boundary_mass": 4.8152253273663695e-20, "log_evidence": -6311.262857170758, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5665764668672633 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1309732680773265 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20480246779817243 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05780025430587692 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.0292371775226824 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010610365429107774 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 96.96852380414907, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 678.3719534865786, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013983959915847511 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 586.6323907011406, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01570432999407086 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 574.7623541579324, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.016024481615599762 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 483.7935633578963, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017970057947632696 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 335.966148595432, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02382021770417124 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 282.9466388408649, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02784864991660355 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12755476216475337 } ], "seconds": 261.3, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_DEU_PCV", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without DEU_PCV (frozen; omitted)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [ "DEU_PCV" ], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "DEU_PCV" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.597789563117495, "ratio_median": 0.9556917479022173, "ratio_high": 1.5146863788270657, "p_above_1": 0.4226921405871259, "p_above_1_10": 0.27249993784522064, "p_within_5pct": 0.1675291204647409, "boundary_mass": 4.60748070162604e-21, "log_evidence": -6663.264738332219, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5808140319441306 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12583273514777787 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20390657098404996 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.053265739331817344 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027223735959632577 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008957186632911417 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 106.13783681927207, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 680.1098255037715, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009330952421711045 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 588.8273517515424, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01056123892200276 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 576.3019365587128, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011006050161654643 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 485.5900631105658, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011788629903790393 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.0554368145362, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012839501892261723 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.061461740022, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013217112773625733 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12444515528406852 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5977195109777304, "ratio_median": 0.95538814175842, "ratio_high": 1.5147352766009883, "p_above_1": 0.42219046772549795, "p_above_1_10": 0.2721509075307369, "p_within_5pct": 0.16741136207445634, "boundary_mass": 1.925346569105728e-21, "log_evidence": -6662.716043081501, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.580043194767462 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12610385149677056 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20432088133383053 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05340268347147177 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.0272028563397496 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008926532590652493 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 444.83194966342467, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 965.8738100131911, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009330952421711045 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 931.0372422891703, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01056123892200276 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 924.4792872979975, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011006050161654643 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 890.7872326855597, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011788629903790393 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 839.1060722245783, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012839501892261723 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 816.0184904098355, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013217112773625733 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12431289324963046 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5982502095689806, "ratio_median": 0.9576417061538927, "ratio_high": 1.5143736488491266, "p_above_1": 0.4259202808616742, "p_above_1_10": 0.27474586123755096, "p_within_5pct": 0.16828686646101648, "boundary_mass": 2.1866347738000833e-20, "log_evidence": -6664.577756328269, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5857741777372086 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1240881687732654 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20124058677612194 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05238453780299138 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02735809112806112 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009154437781903096 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 100.93067639637152, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 680.1098255037715, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013961705926656508 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 588.8273517515424, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015624961526199575 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 576.3019365587128, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015959341500532867 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 485.5900631105658, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01791804634251183 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.0554368145362, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02380090249387925 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.061461740022, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027825632211990418 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12529622863135204 } ], "seconds": 276.7, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_HKG_PCV_autism", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without HKG_PCV_autism (frozen; omitted)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [ "HKG_PCV_autism" ], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "HKG_PCV_autism" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5965236005572246, "ratio_median": 0.9620312945714045, "ratio_high": 1.5386199655393302, "p_above_1": 0.43504455900573635, "p_above_1_10": 0.28557536415324003, "p_within_5pct": 0.16541419136084407, "boundary_mass": 8.775289191112846e-21, "log_evidence": -6708.567502594413, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5579032609656362 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13329398761249445 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20875487531743508 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.059496079401765045 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029872057306144516 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010679739396756953 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 101.09860619416663, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 683.2632481525876, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009221345118784975 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 593.0181121930249, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01043489683470462 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 579.3267688657215, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010886142178898908 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 489.73797801464946, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01166527716677572 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 338.215320552008, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01280487038510139 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 285.4329664077909, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013169552982325894 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13474975091232666 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5964761413158703, "ratio_median": 0.9617444497925225, "ratio_high": 1.5387598716299042, "p_above_1": 0.4345788786356868, "p_above_1_10": 0.2852554057678752, "p_within_5pct": 0.16530220310323446, "boundary_mass": 3.7210627356534105e-21, "log_evidence": -6708.018732082676, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.557095868202462 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1335694608219072 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20918084188986336 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.059651021141341784 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02985692889419054 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010645879049934533 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 448.48357533015127, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 967.6536409952478, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009221345118784975 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 933.8007211694705, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01043489683470462 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 925.5611579781754, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010886142178898908 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 892.8240893737025, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01166527716677572 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 836.9712173345908, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01280487038510139 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 815.1677660952913, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013169552982325894 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13463785903593395 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5968352999881091, "ratio_median": 0.9638742516844837, "ratio_high": 1.5377223531269504, "p_above_1": 0.4380427741146129, "p_above_1_10": 0.287635369527963, "p_within_5pct": 0.1661352114157763, "boundary_mass": 4.1316188694800046e-20, "log_evidence": -6709.881005011963, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5631015414516798 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13152039355105305 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20601235169858317 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05849850962091037 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029969459378800873 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010897744298713501 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 101.09860619416663, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 683.2632481525876, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01386526749129928 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 593.0181121930249, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015432934714812904 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 579.3267688657215, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015757943114187958 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 489.73797801464946, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017714150560369537 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 338.215320552008, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.023516167375920348 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 285.4329664077909, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02751987958958549 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13547015043421262 } ], "seconds": 270.6, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_ENG_RV_backfill", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without ENG_RV_backfill (replacement; omitted)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [ "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "frozen_omit": [ "ENG_RV" ], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.596672928775128, "ratio_median": 0.9649139334282362, "ratio_high": 1.5467661007628393, "p_above_1": 0.44045648642497714, "p_above_1_10": 0.29121052387547064, "p_within_5pct": 0.16457868775453183, "boundary_mass": 6.359208210727319e-21, "log_evidence": -6883.050928918522, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5409662587956351 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.15163833319067804 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20052606948636822 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06729715349125404 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027777391292581124 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.011794793743456338 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 105.98429762851327, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 685.4559698714198, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009157666832326595 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 594.0739584618052, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010403812059364716 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 582.9254978029983, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010824820965087575 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 492.2944991527722, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011618917644114124 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 340.09975871820365, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012743951667894413 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 286.78092686840444, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013119261570643978 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13903616955395148 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5966241076662252, "ratio_median": 0.9646223873538285, "ratio_high": 1.5468918717656626, "p_above_1": 0.43998401494160166, "p_above_1_10": 0.29088063984665724, "p_within_5pct": 0.16447101699540023, "boundary_mass": 2.667932629508916e-21, "log_evidence": -6882.502149316202, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5401568641243433 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.15194880161011173 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20091187308489006 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06746824810804286 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027758240836176618 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.011755972236285689 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 460.49522709349674, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 969.0045795643017, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009157666832326595 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 934.7263213671955, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010403812059364716 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 928.4292213841698, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010824820965087575 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 894.9531632169394, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011618917644114124 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 841.2990924785718, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012743951667894413 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 818.4045059172539, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013119261570643978 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1389150583492813 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5969935758505829, "ratio_median": 0.9667871851822897, "ratio_high": 1.5459592817462928, "p_above_1": 0.4434986308318084, "p_above_1_10": 0.29333457768288096, "p_within_5pct": 0.16527195710347214, "boundary_mass": 3.012655451341127e-20, "log_evidence": -6884.364489866448, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.546177780672876 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.14963929240419388 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.1980419613427699 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0661955112761305 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027900697049378302 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.012044757254601645 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 100.78536070777989, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 685.4559698714198, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0138030177894071 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 594.0739584618052, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015386795151337314 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 582.9254978029983, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015685691711108257 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 492.2944991527722, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017658845492016816 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 340.09975871820365, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.023492636907921215 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 286.78092686840444, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027484200335306953 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13981597910264532 } ], "seconds": 257.1, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_SCT_RV", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without SCT_RV (frozen; omitted)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [ "SCT_RV" ], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "SCT_RV" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5912900162419175, "ratio_median": 0.9438273811308249, "ratio_high": 1.4951082124334223, "p_above_1": 0.4015914148428995, "p_above_1_10": 0.2546083562847189, "p_within_5pct": 0.16589980723452302, "boundary_mass": 5.537699910189165e-21, "log_evidence": -3673.1142742070674, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5902132232033128 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12078108620837874 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20356238005345653 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05020305179074305 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.026913312280114562 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008326946464026739 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 105.98429762851327, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 671.0419895821914, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009617330556718626 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 572.130650127265, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011002045254455157 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 569.4734769692647, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011179573253349971 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 473.5864123551515, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012072676900561886 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 332.6971307906337, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012927121048901877 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 278.1195069207119, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013357389268480008 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1135181406617749 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5912174154760788, "ratio_median": 0.943509879404723, "ratio_high": 1.495110462715211, "p_above_1": 0.40107027472668666, "p_above_1_10": 0.25424896971421385, "p_within_5pct": 0.16577092570279106, "boundary_mass": 2.311719663152504e-21, "log_evidence": -3672.565460223964, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5894910624125126 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12103971404759258 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20396351601682317 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.050322460912787186 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02688758551698745 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008295661093390723 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 444.4336072818007, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 960.8819457362632, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009617330556718626 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 921.2457498469902, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011002045254455157 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 919.951835544686, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011179573253349971 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 883.1263668378815, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012072676900561886 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 836.1636339002998, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012927121048901877 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 811.6277272489378, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013357389268480008 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.11338042560689365 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5917594834971593, "ratio_median": 0.9458694759109528, "ratio_high": 1.4950938342430595, "p_above_1": 0.40494778471143333, "p_above_1_10": 0.2569229627002957, "p_within_5pct": 0.16672986056616035, "boundary_mass": 2.6314421104278398e-20, "log_evidence": -3674.4280565539348, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.594864253978385 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.11911541001177632 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20097888932089436 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.04943400491299714 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027079003866486255 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008528437909539863 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 100.78536070777989, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 671.0419895821914, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014166049076740265 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 572.130650127265, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.016297125262888294 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 569.4734769692647, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.016200591233634043 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 473.5864123551515, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01832013869932716 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 332.6971307906337, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02402499283034498 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 278.1195069207119, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.028247741981563552 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.11440508573866481 } ], "seconds": 255.0, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_NIR_RV", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without NIR_RV (frozen; omitted)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [ "NIR_RV" ], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "NIR_RV" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5917514635965866, "ratio_median": 0.9558654874356572, "ratio_high": 1.5323086536404233, "p_above_1": 0.42484518876484767, "p_above_1_10": 0.27767435918015804, "p_within_5pct": 0.16367428958769586, "boundary_mass": 7.267734730680014e-21, "log_evidence": -6799.786816340607, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5437580141029017 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.15274207546189028 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.19777210505843215 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06703856153651995 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027053573156650856 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.011635670683453019 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 105.98429762851327, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 678.0886297732573, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009396774543994596 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 587.1543245914052, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010590278649166939 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 576.7461250240524, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010986629277038695 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.717760086043, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011751151224376104 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.8943471507731, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012821920945923028 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 284.3170547105924, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013185352058718068 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13043304515242837 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5917050067564635, "ratio_median": 0.9555658869286126, "ratio_high": 1.532403239718957, "p_above_1": 0.42436288728959326, "p_above_1_10": 0.27734020263008263, "p_within_5pct": 0.16355934640561626, "boundary_mass": 3.045629195840697e-21, "log_evidence": -6799.237942069051, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5429883685345656 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.15304631461917134 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.19814100707183824 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06719983036678766 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02702962854807617 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.011594850859193073 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 444.4336072818007, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 965.2072118853474, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009396774543994596 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 930.8772779857522, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010590278649166939 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 924.7083576038519, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010986629277038695 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 891.6426351024537, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011751151224376104 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 839.1346348258598, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012821920945923028 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 816.5464806973315, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013185352058718068 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13030941187219802 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5920568501838314, "ratio_median": 0.9577920958265818, "ratio_high": 1.531702118895083, "p_above_1": 0.42795281478261393, "p_above_1_10": 0.27982743903228435, "p_within_5pct": 0.164414906072455, "boundary_mass": 3.4472140445900505e-20, "log_evidence": -6801.1009870585385, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5487170920134877 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1507817631481087 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.19539514883112988 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06599945376148333 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027207856094568 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.011898686150771396 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 100.78536070777989, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 678.0886297732573, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013975239955893242 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 587.1543245914052, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015670696847111507 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 576.7461250240524, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01592003913532435 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.717760086043, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01785090130557216 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.8943471507731, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.023722993063086013 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 284.3170547105924, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02769985215628818 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1312296547809011 } ], "seconds": 270.6, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics (replacement; omitted)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics" ], "frozen_omit": [ "CAN_RV_newly_identified" ], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5969193963521034, "ratio_median": 0.9584222283285182, "ratio_high": 1.5274788560764538, "p_above_1": 0.42830429202082554, "p_above_1_10": 0.2788527778574311, "p_within_5pct": 0.16609202566416853, "boundary_mass": 5.081887327596294e-21, "log_evidence": -6711.8987488863195, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5631321589529802 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13828269007052985 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20123461998137357 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05987027769025055 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027208639390440208 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010271613914300457 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 105.98429762851327, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 680.8769642615423, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009305591975028896 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 592.1285605907278, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01046468945879338 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 578.0351179582105, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01095548891275647 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 489.66416953306793, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011687049212192373 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 337.19416683963567, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012816023839349077 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 285.20458415712585, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013163442115589258 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12972858535852727 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5968565988390881, "ratio_median": 0.9581242191062198, "ratio_high": 1.5275609577834937, "p_above_1": 0.4278168932140889, "p_above_1_10": 0.27851434216558035, "p_within_5pct": 0.16597739851929472, "boundary_mass": 2.1268050164820054e-21, "log_evidence": -6711.349990207023, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5623498086049381 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.138569986860906 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20163199185392697 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06002295000758938 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027188012475429724 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010237250196909038 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 444.4336072818007, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 966.4216870694999, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009305591975028896 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 933.2392599351888, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01046468945879338 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 925.3298790166328, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01095548891275647 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 893.1487382410295, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011687049212192373 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 839.2836476881637, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012816023839349077 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 817.1454209667214, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013163442115589258 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12960284701456792 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5973321918064659, "ratio_median": 0.9603372815944613, "ratio_high": 1.5269530421595066, "p_above_1": 0.4314420619461645, "p_above_1_10": 0.28103155490996556, "p_within_5pct": 0.16682997085984985, "boundary_mass": 2.4106079169268628e-20, "log_evidence": -6713.212175125783, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5681687642112645 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13643313439644583 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.1986764243236147 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05888740576035272 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02734143108516438 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010492840223145075 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 100.78536070777989, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 680.8769642615423, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013930139837272267 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 592.1285605907278, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01547817759606439 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 578.0351179582105, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015875505119218432 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 489.66416953306793, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017759468460854605 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 337.19416683963567, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.023699445298482714 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 285.20458415712585, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02761967755655246 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1305380620932164 } ], "seconds": 254.4, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without QC_RV_ASD_cnics (replacement; omitted)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [ "QC_RV_ASD_cnics" ], "frozen_omit": [ "QC_RV_ASD" ], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "QC_RV_ASD_cnics" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5861141656473848, "ratio_median": 0.9473199297543246, "ratio_high": 1.520127119538453, "p_above_1": 0.41032124313107854, "p_above_1_10": 0.2656499169148292, "p_within_5pct": 0.162111622334993, "boundary_mass": 8.623329581708309e-21, "log_evidence": -6687.075779078981, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.551312350354434 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1469225425875391 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.19943679341183088 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06408610786883447 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027180317704857203 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.011061888072493767 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 105.98429762851327, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 670.6973642948057, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009631160729542107 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 579.4623095424046, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010792938145213881 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 570.8661008330308, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011138243817501463 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 480.6869797788141, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011892796317469007 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 333.98197436684785, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012892560298031527 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 281.7197847159819, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013255142578330227 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12319735977024204 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5860648215146912, "ratio_median": 0.9470065633075571, "ratio_high": 1.520188385473141, "p_above_1": 0.4098211557372331, "p_above_1_10": 0.2653050559267339, "p_within_5pct": 0.16198819998815872, "boundary_mass": 3.6083006423807975e-21, "log_evidence": -6686.526822853652, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5505873741772939 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.14720941712913116 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.1997990434118864 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06423195883922524 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027151482776908598 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.011020723665251796 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 444.4336072818007, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 961.2812636299976, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009631160729542107 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 926.5550589787935, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010792938145213881 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 921.1714744004885, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011138243817501463 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 888.0502945238554, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011892796317469007 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 837.1670600420379, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012892560298031527 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 814.5771979735565, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013255142578330227 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12306766206368536 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5864388803786703, "ratio_median": 0.9493369624819445, "ratio_high": 1.5197345255114125, "p_above_1": 0.4135454363399912, "p_above_1_10": 0.2678733252020995, "p_within_5pct": 0.16290735823513658, "boundary_mass": 4.095652263505402e-20, "log_evidence": -6688.3904780129715, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.555986459910432 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.14507298796903462 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.1971012736512873 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06314576881190427 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027366223968406878 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.011327285688794125 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 100.78536070777989, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 670.6973642948057, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014132988356838279 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 579.4623095424046, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015979708690997116 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 570.8661008330308, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.016139347139781084 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 480.6869797788141, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01805594610821173 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 333.98197436684785, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.023935161276800822 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 281.7197847159819, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027929976151052548 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12403355454483755 } ], "seconds": 266.1, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_CZE_MMR_counts", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without CZE_MMR_counts (frozen; omitted)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [ "CZE_MMR_counts" ], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "CZE_MMR_counts" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5931563214282288, "ratio_median": 0.9527679079328611, "ratio_high": 1.5137995095576706, "p_above_1": 0.41803222530541806, "p_above_1_10": 0.2693263807628794, "p_within_5pct": 0.16616788667924065, "boundary_mass": 2.883607720629322e-20, "log_evidence": -3405.2990270866403, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5722405187572794 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1267043227528791 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20682649092423627 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0550998122421733 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02931410202448619 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009814753298831065 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 85.06831638083287, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 677.7268347823577, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009398802546293609 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 585.4777263144972, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010641926397509287 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 556.0566997790951, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011386863679205219 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 466.38328688977924, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012138942114230628 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.68647403601085, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013871693395336207 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 243.95186857137946, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014138855263136518 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12308686595013352 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5932203108072841, "ratio_median": 0.9524888396629454, "ratio_high": 1.5138637076952137, "p_above_1": 0.41757123749709946, "p_above_1_10": 0.26900448169705815, "p_within_5pct": 0.16606435351784343, "boundary_mass": 6.087854693149803e-21, "log_evidence": -3404.750337641722, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5715265707355361 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1269821286942289 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20730057288353934 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05523891514587564 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029206291955305674 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009745520585290275 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 425.589611913367, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 964.6273492103347, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009398802546293609 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 929.2483626266188, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010641926397509287 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 913.9664071384459, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011386863679205219 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 880.2941990533941, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012138942114230628 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 802.8362173757138, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013871693395336207 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 782.7292087019138, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014138855263136518 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12296729464442135 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5927382027589246, "ratio_median": 0.954561659065801, "ratio_high": 1.513388804742003, "p_above_1": 0.4209984393298998, "p_above_1_10": 0.27139763190288957, "p_within_5pct": 0.16683406810483642, "boundary_mass": 1.7520892141594874e-19, "log_evidence": -3406.6120077246187, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.576834398674368 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12491678767176456 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20377602292678304 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.054204758237779385 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.03000780310161047 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010260229387669937 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 77.76060907918755, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 677.7268347823577, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014003638958397938 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 585.4777263144972, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01576498009676103 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 556.0566997790951, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01686741760813929 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 466.38328688977924, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.018725704919367855 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.68647403601085, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.024975174749563414 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 243.95186857137946, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02778876087932295 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12385624439741927 } ], "seconds": 254.4, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without BRA_MDTPA_census_autism (additional; omitted)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [ "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism" ], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5988265671606088, "ratio_median": 0.9706157738530615, "ratio_high": 1.5602953705479252, "p_above_1": 0.45018558195703795, "p_above_1_10": 0.29968523935714775, "p_within_5pct": 0.16519978309471667, "boundary_mass": 1.3202297794510497e-19, "log_evidence": -6722.184164294362, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5518766902768755 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1305078779209487 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21130842624902849 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.059409611835810394 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.03486798149811793 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.012029412218829687 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 95.90553270014813, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 689.0115575587979, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00903895384487502 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 600.050543710422, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010245799752756104 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 588.2450725641238, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010675202139491883 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 498.19241112668334, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01146484537013464 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 345.1287168771956, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012582122251282924 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 290.9390080905574, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01297231288700883 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1447931939076308 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5988125719196856, "ratio_median": 0.9703415359497891, "ratio_high": 1.5605022901057217, "p_above_1": 0.4497402675041865, "p_above_1_10": 0.2993797489266874, "p_within_5pct": 0.16509504133601122, "boundary_mass": 5.538029366917986e-20, "log_evidence": -6721.635509999114, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5510630705159576 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13078653761077572 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2117352755160334 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05957005124545104 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.03485196584072556 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.011993099270983226 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 444.4336072818007, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 970.5938295818905, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00903895384487502 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 937.6959945302017, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010245799752756104 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 932.117700903229, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010675202139491883 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 898.9739015472387, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01146484537013464 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 846.141185966344, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012582122251282924 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 822.815895181973, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01297231288700883 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.14469262935798521 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5989183053718249, "ratio_median": 0.9723756020936974, "ratio_high": 1.558970054260899, "p_above_1": 0.45305019759215726, "p_above_1_10": 0.3016503960186325, "p_within_5pct": 0.16587356513281376, "boundary_mass": 6.250494905319333e-19, "log_evidence": -6723.496918792252, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5571105376712665 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12871531785673745 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20856259333024668 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.058377538346309626 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.03497100690479035 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.012263005890685135 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 91.32947645167873, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 689.0115575587979, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013729820019141798 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 600.050543710422, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015145330352742693 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 588.2450725641238, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015467676272304096 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 498.19241112668334, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01743142045587051 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 345.1287168771956, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.023189024988218968 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 290.9390080905574, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02716617258651524 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.14544010482299352 } ], "seconds": 255.3, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without COL_VARICELLA_school_autism (additional; omitted)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [ "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism" ], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.6030598492265872, "ratio_median": 0.9989969102467655, "ratio_high": 1.6328295940312938, "p_above_1": 0.49838312158723796, "p_above_1_10": 0.3484392492159981, "p_within_5pct": 0.16012495629983947, "boundary_mass": 7.184726890653148e-19, "log_evidence": -6466.493081143719, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5319915379774909 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13376629715742266 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21645718731298907 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06375240444977323 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.03998018697084915 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.014052386131892879 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 91.32947645167873, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 707.4778293449027, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00839557731804022 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 614.1940681883883, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009832902803560506 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 605.2746629427414, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010195352631266362 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 510.8709259466004, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011135489502637607 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 351.61249802745476, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012399325417128534 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 295.6674006416013, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012826142452751889 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.18251764405527315 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.6030893403000487, "ratio_median": 0.9987472019313502, "ratio_high": 1.6332401244069008, "p_above_1": 0.4979814727569323, "p_above_1_10": 0.3481631412294416, "p_within_5pct": 0.16003741600988147, "boundary_mass": 3.0355350951216197e-19, "log_evidence": -6465.944574198443, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5310980224451647 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1340634218772398 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21691025388655788 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06393912647902836 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.039974390047625874 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.014014785264315176 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 444.4336072818007, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 978.8877751401062, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00839557731804022 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 945.5857731762297, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009832902803560506 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 942.6819139598177, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010195352631266362 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 907.1020627243832, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011135489502637607 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 851.2930878719407, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012399325417128534 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 826.9954320558684, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012826142452751889 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.18244247019974458 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6028671159833658, "ratio_median": 1.0005962242289899, "ratio_high": 1.6302651273499094, "p_above_1": 0.5009640184543263, "p_above_1_10": 0.35021345141381766, "p_within_5pct": 0.16068746873122441, "boundary_mass": 3.3846415654852634e-18, "log_evidence": -6467.80488828847, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5377330496250061 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13185704658626854 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21354589263872897 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06255257448877242 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.04001743657746865 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.014294000084163658 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 87.0405347365845, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 707.4778293449027, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013344108889030563 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 614.1940681883883, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01452232765269583 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 605.2746629427414, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01477274139683971 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 510.8709259466004, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01694642017208982 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 351.61249802745476, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.022772174476884836 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 295.6674006416013, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02678886587417308 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.18300069281480646 } ], "seconds": 265.3, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "loco_TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "category": "leave one context out", "description": "Without TZA_SCHEDULE_autism (additional; omitted)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [ "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism" ], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": [ "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism" ], "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5679800981318794, "ratio_median": 0.9359877905384093, "ratio_high": 1.5272820972803722, "p_above_1": 0.3938101161156995, "p_above_1_10": 0.2555125429816173, "p_within_5pct": 0.1560195338849858, "boundary_mass": 4.634752509754749e-19, "log_evidence": -6678.240580098801, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5217082279010732 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13343683904161102 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.22326760716429336 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06540351666064258 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.04162816903010683 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.014555640202508137 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 83.02014536701182, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 663.1792408905667, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009864211745186265 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 574.719556639687, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01091340552563204 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 551.8076379590372, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011601894833264494 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 466.5932242362975, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012193420749347426 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 318.5135596505004, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013216923902004185 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 270.58175037482124, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013509770947406775 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1203049335740285 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5680974468294926, "ratio_median": 0.9356988048874024, "ratio_high": 1.527431294746574, "p_above_1": 0.39336507552636313, "p_above_1_10": 0.2552133637398819, "p_within_5pct": 0.1559025848241895, "boundary_mass": 1.9378871151327478e-19, "log_evidence": -6677.69151165118, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.521066825576338 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1336864299674059 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.22366752199286327 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06553511447394013 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.04155406446523849 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.014490043524051425 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 399.65761882681625, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 957.2218132903411, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009864211745186265 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 924.0156905795759, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01091340552563204 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 910.7469963622518, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011601894833264494 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 880.8273484138481, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012193420749347426 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 828.6489531733909, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013216923902004185 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 807.8084895348161, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013509770947406775 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12020414666725943 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5672137892909992, "ratio_median": 0.9378507810371298, "ratio_high": 1.5263235526705876, "p_above_1": 0.396681808168154, "p_above_1_10": 0.2574430425165741, "p_within_5pct": 0.15677416547697642, "boundary_mass": 2.2036686413952854e-18, "log_evidence": -6679.556002861531, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5258469738983547 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13182631565274974 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.22068709594202413 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06455436176623335 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.042106339999282906 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.014978912741438831 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 79.25458459344561, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 663.1792408905667, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014280959958860312 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 574.719556639687, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.016164450435193625 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 551.8076379590372, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.016804385356976176 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 466.5932242362975, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.018480586006564017 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 318.5135596505004, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.025173986128388552 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 270.58175037482124, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.029003838430574837 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12095527641277026 } ], "seconds": 263.5, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "frozen_12_context_core_v2", "category": "continuity", "description": "Frozen 12-context model on core v2: no new blocks, nothing omitted, published bias SDs, U.S. rotavirus 2006 untied", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "published", "blocks": [], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.626197147062036, "ratio_median": 1.0286118406198912, "ratio_high": 1.6404017525661991, "p_above_1": 0.5485270582928117, "p_above_1_10": 0.3854446741744215, "p_within_5pct": 0.16945825814747573, "boundary_mass": 5.438933136380551e-17, "log_evidence": -6483.383224091305, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5403412817408975 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.121736092070255 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20963068874752622 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.060648120973036644 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.050215746814426296 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.017428069654286497 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 51.980176777151435, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 490.26323822992833, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01729069139843406 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 853.021798421536, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00952896570281333 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 881.1940975632945, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009066326874346655 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 903.3630544089875, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008066988402603139 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 723.2176647486784, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00905629719240524 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 598.7212479479784, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010489885467295871 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.19910151144983912 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.6206899293451585, "ratio_median": 1.0315749839757569, "ratio_high": 1.6558200427262175, "p_above_1": 0.5523966798730642, "p_above_1_10": 0.3922050244384492, "p_within_5pct": 0.16585742487908, "boundary_mass": 1.619796479030229e-17, "log_evidence": -6482.915801592109, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5193457590136799 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12585024755665294 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21694131826580149 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.06455325161070966 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.05437381883661811 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.018935604716596593 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 59.804614107849254, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 490.26323822992833, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01729069139843406 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 853.021798421536, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00952896570281333 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 881.1940975632945, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009066326874346655 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 982.9071817166995, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008066988402603139 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 994.9895947280708, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00905629719240524 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 946.7576182171746, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010489885467295871 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.20651277519062095 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6494648322533518, "ratio_median": 1.0180405086926538, "ratio_high": 1.5720424950838967, "p_above_1": 0.5332460382059092, "p_above_1_10": 0.35874825282244804, "p_within_5pct": 0.183677841215946, "boundary_mass": 2.0520589770029418e-16, "log_evidence": -6484.289256413852, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.6232519741358205 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10548941488871154 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.1807612310494251 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.04522687667845061 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.033795644544331226 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.011474858702970894 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 126.95449944154761, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1729.7373854834868, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009840606460042235 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1118.184011457127, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009218311496877914 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1157.934779453534, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008787242013765484 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 903.3630544089875, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011653597649582384 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 723.2176647486784, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012761075554317373 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 598.7212479479784, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014001151112049868 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.16983465221394345 } ], "seconds": 266.4, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "frozen_12_context_core_v2_calibrated_sd", "category": "continuity", "description": "Frozen 12-context model on core v2 with the D3 calibrated bias SDs (U.S. rotavirus 2006 untied)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5584398896544415, "ratio_median": 0.9934744275868944, "ratio_high": 1.7452177455636821, "p_above_1": 0.49061202666728665, "p_above_1_10": 0.3570801179063229, "p_within_5pct": 0.14269437908890065, "boundary_mass": 3.0499205940984404e-15, "log_evidence": -6484.591490669538, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.4291832173107733 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.14400822687499248 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2354251337925417 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0859662119553186 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.07522062189588652 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.030196588170262134 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 66.36199623061106, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 698.8120306453783, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00870441855025713 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 606.2679142979704, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010006078461366507 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 593.6807644698187, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010425000933753231 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 501.48297066484025, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011247601391257037 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 342.13590838725025, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012459088711827526 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 289.55856711288163, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012842033351586636 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.2051531451348877 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5589909742213477, "ratio_median": 0.9933576765758464, "ratio_high": 1.7463289464613907, "p_above_1": 0.4904483531435615, "p_above_1_10": 0.35701810658996724, "p_within_5pct": 0.14262151295223058, "boundary_mass": 1.5204583749316075e-15, "log_evidence": -6484.042570599784, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.428461887610044 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1442830336261301 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2358500840563049 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.08617190044454852 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.07514426419558581 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.030088830066998883 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 385.61451524016957, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 976.5683115337349, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00870441855025713 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 943.5893126142931, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010006078461366507 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 939.6307641097153, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010425000933753231 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 905.7607576795857, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011247601391257037 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 850.5510734509378, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012459088711827526 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 827.2787358745585, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012842033351586636 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.2052466234453325 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5548423709149214, "ratio_median": 0.9942245711266028, "ratio_high": 1.7380769787338428, "p_above_1": 0.49166698828664623, "p_above_1_10": 0.3574798133319004, "p_within_5pct": 0.14316403951893758, "boundary_mass": 1.29081059788933e-14, "log_evidence": -6485.905956530532, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.43383256518210556 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.14223695337512485 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2326861066839811 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.08464044186886621 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.0757127872828939 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.03089114560707034 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 61.122205402563715, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 698.8120306453783, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013310680627445056 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 606.2679142979704, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014796335966247772 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 593.6807644698187, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015090164087669179 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 501.48297066484025, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01708026514889564 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 342.13590838725025, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.023628125383198327 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 289.55856711288163, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027452891041816082 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.20455062844547223 } ], "seconds": 263.0, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "core_v1_R_any", "category": "continuity", "description": "Pre-H2 core (R_any, 353 IDEA cells, no eta4): the stage-2b hierarchy_v2 model; U.S. rotavirus 2006 is not in this model (no eta4, no fallback block), so its untie entry is inert (us_rv2006_fallback_block adds the block untied)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5931521421665259, "ratio_median": 0.9526436048674777, "ratio_high": 1.5154280194367742, "p_above_1": 0.41784521149187925, "p_above_1_10": 0.26928126005730635, "p_within_5pct": 0.16606829785660288, "boundary_mass": 8.509834074067343e-21, "log_evidence": -6810.612962203675, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5551074716051942 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12954737421355153 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2107966121574951 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05870851669749655 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.034110645793229505 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.011729379532915425 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 2715.348364539062, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5495.881988616948, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003626634831952013 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5418.417408621137, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003362003765648054 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5432.143688532202, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0032938767951425857 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5298.156814097136, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0031152978885828804 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5113.860828065724, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0032108503147463574 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 4927.960683325863, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0035809107596625235 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12326604849549994 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5932492043764375, "ratio_median": 0.9526597202741561, "ratio_high": 1.5152828295134333, "p_above_1": 0.41785392855861536, "p_above_1_10": 0.26925700490155347, "p_within_5pct": 0.16610818063602867, "boundary_mass": 9.772299458079953e-21, "log_evidence": -6810.616834386142, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5553173333331923 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12951481590550565 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21073998027593346 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05866208680852647 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.0340583632908793 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.011707420386385888 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 2715.348364539062, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5613.320373565763, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003626634831952013 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5530.15349002454, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.003362003765648054 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5530.791692436937, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0032938767951425857 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5372.3785424609505, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0031152978885828804 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5130.4766756461495, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0032108503147463574 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 4927.960683325863, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0035809107596625235 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12322555595268014 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.593056015822625, "ratio_median": 0.9526276060498887, "ratio_high": 1.5155719546733277, "p_above_1": 0.4178365615433648, "p_above_1_10": 0.2693053284572434, "p_within_5pct": 0.16602872215997133, "boundary_mass": 7.257089211112671e-21, "log_evidence": -6810.60910495719, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5548992257360317 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12957968183462565 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21085280799448397 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.058754589093369586 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.03416252573948475 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.01175116960206707 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 2748.8983443467805, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5495.881988616948, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.002335184149169659 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5418.417408621137, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0022851296586274797 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5432.143688532202, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0022407504475318403 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5298.156814097136, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.002199635919524282 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 5113.860828065724, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0020829140288165827 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 4944.719572047497, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.002051610414194696 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12330622925994161 } ], "seconds": 247.5, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "without_new_contexts", "category": "continuity", "description": "No 2026-09-24/25 global blocks (core v2; U.S. rotavirus 2006 untied as in the primary)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5584398896544415, "ratio_median": 0.9934744275868944, "ratio_high": 1.7452177455636821, "p_above_1": 0.49061202666728665, "p_above_1_10": 0.3570801179063229, "p_within_5pct": 0.14269437908890065, "boundary_mass": 3.0499205940984404e-15, "log_evidence": -6484.591490669538, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.4291832173107733 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.14400822687499248 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2354251337925417 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0859662119553186 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.07522062189588652 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.030196588170262134 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 66.36199623061106, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 698.8120306453783, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00870441855025713 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 606.2679142979704, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010006078461366507 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 593.6807644698187, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010425000933753231 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 501.48297066484025, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011247601391257037 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 342.13590838725025, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012459088711827526 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 289.55856711288163, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012842033351586636 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.2051531451348877 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5589909742213477, "ratio_median": 0.9933576765758464, "ratio_high": 1.7463289464613907, "p_above_1": 0.4904483531435615, "p_above_1_10": 0.35701810658996724, "p_within_5pct": 0.14262151295223058, "boundary_mass": 1.5204583749316075e-15, "log_evidence": -6484.042570599784, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.428461887610044 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1442830336261301 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2358500840563049 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.08617190044454852 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.07514426419558581 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.030088830066998883 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 385.61451524016957, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 976.5683115337349, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00870441855025713 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 943.5893126142931, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010006078461366507 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 939.6307641097153, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010425000933753231 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 905.7607576795857, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011247601391257037 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 850.5510734509378, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012459088711827526 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 827.2787358745585, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012842033351586636 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.2052466234453325 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5548423709149214, "ratio_median": 0.9942245711266028, "ratio_high": 1.7380769787338428, "p_above_1": 0.49166698828664623, "p_above_1_10": 0.3574798133319004, "p_within_5pct": 0.14316403951893758, "boundary_mass": 1.29081059788933e-14, "log_evidence": -6485.905956530532, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.43383256518210556 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.14223695337512485 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2326861066839811 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.08464044186886621 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.0757127872828939 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.03089114560707034 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 61.122205402563715, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 698.8120306453783, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013310680627445056 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 606.2679142979704, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014796335966247772 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 593.6807644698187, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015090164087669179 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 501.48297066484025, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01708026514889564 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 342.13590838725025, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.023628125383198327 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 289.55856711288163, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027452891041816082 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.20455062844547223 } ], "seconds": 0.0, "same_as": "frozen_12_context_core_v2_calibrated_sd", "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "wide_context_bias", "category": "model", "description": "Every context bias SD x 2", "power": 20, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5101736990305631, "ratio_median": 0.9738013579408479, "ratio_high": 1.8475350597469729, "p_above_1": 0.4674473674817009, "p_above_1_10": 0.3537977301113632, "p_within_5pct": 0.12201364712145418, "boundary_mass": 9.007514425152544e-16, "log_evidence": -6727.1385208892425, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.3470566176332161 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.19359619311853715 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.218500085786629 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12699954137659641 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.06994647004077537 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.04390109204456012 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 123.80159885346903, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 300.2032522564989, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.006223914296421807 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 280.46007797501215, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0064033931317450206 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 280.89173187090887, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.006365170479634525 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 263.23873412880596, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.006530367991893191 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 237.78638167197764, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0066693819024571405 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 223.0181869342068, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.006806730531148355 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.2211172158666368 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5133578299906022, "ratio_median": 0.9776151837030328, "ratio_high": 1.852293190489681, "p_above_1": 0.4721601366531316, "p_above_1_10": 0.35794170967476735, "p_within_5pct": 0.12242547847676499, "boundary_mass": 5.214538551165748e-16, "log_evidence": -6726.631650602804, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.34868831161765845 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.19371051904582978 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21860715345893694 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1265392163850695 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.06920415494915344 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.04325064454314359 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 1714.5310750975318, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 2480.0644371322246, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.006223914296421807 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 2450.35273295423, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0064033931317450206 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 2454.203306435285, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.006365170479634525 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 2426.5134284499936, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.006530367991893191 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 2401.33917426783, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0066693819024571405 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 2377.275497585299, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.006806730531148355 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.22416011278943304 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.49604961783051754, "ratio_median": 0.9551319630682658, "ratio_high": 1.8231371849760334, "p_above_1": 0.44443083227535995, "p_above_1_10": 0.3335590873843409, "p_within_5pct": 0.1200023177854066, "boundary_mass": 2.753190201230989e-15, "log_evidence": -6728.217587812698, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.33908764213749304 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1930378405581741 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21797718157418314 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12924770715483275 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.07357183780610066 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.04707779076902542 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 123.80159885346903, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 300.2032522564989, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02718208001064112 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 280.46007797501215, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027340164614174652 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 280.89173187090887, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027290271058486613 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 263.23873412880596, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0273467561341321 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 237.78638167197764, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.028479131932180258 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 223.0181869342068, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.030430380006695575 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.2062561137005815 } ], "seconds": 687.1, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "wide_context_bias_p18_diagnostic", "category": "model (diagnostic)", "description": "Every context bias SD x 2 [p18 fit, kept as a diagnostic: minimum relevant core ESS 39.6 < 50, so wide_context_bias is reported at p20]", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5093867351185692, "ratio_median": 0.9726240915908599, "ratio_high": 1.8452906585587643, "p_above_1": 0.46597344104999516, "p_above_1_10": 0.3524342838982345, "p_within_5pct": 0.12195878966724166, "boundary_mass": 1.045365006561746e-15, "log_evidence": -6727.111631251855, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.34643290136731586 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1934997305660367 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2184281409203664 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1271458852032027 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.07028581963082317 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.04420752231218655 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 39.60849501379947, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 118.86977775627052, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013941515923342787 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 111.18647210001123, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014048310705968115 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 110.35878810745137, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01409360188684296 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 102.90760693591822, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014183163545225736 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 88.23800180937742, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014330418628830138 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 79.77536289682133, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014397695631288565 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.22003782290636265 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5138495096580447, "ratio_median": 0.9783571710237159, "ratio_high": 1.8534660758379897, "p_above_1": 0.4730852577425141, "p_above_1_10": 0.35878432523406223, "p_within_5pct": 0.12247232874589198, "boundary_mass": 5.012244140823736e-16, "log_evidence": -6726.608929706953, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.3486901565334415 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1937032904891801 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21860603016292485 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12653138617534662 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.06921569519990543 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.043253441438830906 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 491.2432521285803, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 692.8110686402675, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013941515923342787 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 686.1130443308632, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014048310705968115 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 685.6643664348729, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01409360188684296 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 679.6783938939434, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014183163545225736 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 670.774451334632, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014330418628830138 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 666.0731357748186, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014397695631288565 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.22480872574114075 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.4907544863980711, "ratio_median": 0.9453719746706787, "ratio_high": 1.8032122347588897, "p_above_1": 0.43207352175909297, "p_above_1_10": 0.3221655216275767, "p_within_5pct": 0.11951090130456787, "boundary_mass": 3.639121702706088e-15, "log_evidence": -6728.170584617052, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.33567323597345894 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.19252942083142 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.21758019570068643 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1300750196772752 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.07538678516567021 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.048755342651453586 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 37.082334790847256, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 118.86977775627052, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.04840341477252892 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 111.18647210001123, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.04941581363401069 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 110.35878810745137, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.05019660733244987 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 102.90760693591822, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.050878351009415734 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 88.23800180937742, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.05407780860894947 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 79.77536289682133, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.053936864584322 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.19729634516187122 } ], "seconds": 242.7, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": "wide_context_bias", "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": true }, { "id": "spline_only", "category": "model", "description": "Spline-trend kernels only (global blocks)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5953773346181842, "ratio_median": 0.9576179052010296, "ratio_high": 1.524448547516809, "p_above_1": 0.4268381998677313, "p_above_1_10": 0.277384303981167, "p_within_5pct": 0.166163278907274, "boundary_mass": 1.5415090895149278e-20, "log_evidence": -6723.604599385023, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5656664772897053 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12898867205049921 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20930266009964693 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.056368071813569606 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029746884780562484 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009927233966030199 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 99.93857483628577, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0995310269928, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00928849632113047 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.8216602364413, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01050138639698001 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 572.4263407660271, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011075815242133446 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 484.16344598624374, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011815849337528913 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 330.32926934124765, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01301335165151818 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 279.40660903196635, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01334842828796216 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12853146002209148 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.595332270885686, "ratio_median": 0.9573202057040937, "ratio_high": 1.5245268563978864, "p_above_1": 0.42635064500674213, "p_above_1_10": 0.27704521171349317, "p_within_5pct": 0.1660495715480197, "boundary_mass": 6.40308809740273e-21, "log_evidence": -6723.055826420222, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5648707433342317 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12925651464029886 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20974181371279715 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05651386960543116 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029724211813843385 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009892846893263555 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 442.31712359297927, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 966.2601837553004, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00928849632113047 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 932.0988051099888, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01050138639698001 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 920.1381754720009, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011075815242133446 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 888.2985403152703, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011815849337528913 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 830.7773717138056, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01301335165151818 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 809.7751970748592, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01334842828796216 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12840509655203458 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5956734336440597, "ratio_median": 0.9595312806303217, "ratio_high": 1.5239470166972142, "p_above_1": 0.4299773079730752, "p_above_1_10": 0.27956753990206096, "p_within_5pct": 0.1668953805057306, "boundary_mass": 7.343861458689957e-20, "log_evidence": -6724.918117596418, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5707897877289834 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12726417515395547 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20647518205157522 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05542935687743159 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.029892864031857647 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010148634155978982 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 95.10635281912788, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0995310269928, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013923648979732287 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.8216602364413, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015527401922220617 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 572.4263407660271, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015987106183534733 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 484.16344598624374, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017896125447431924 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 330.32926934124765, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02407664910325765 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 279.40660903196635, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.028032232934303854 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12934504763103327 } ], "seconds": 263.1, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "high_serial_dependence", "category": "model", "description": "rho .85 kernels only (global blocks)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.6023321156264265, "ratio_median": 0.9683888501535083, "ratio_high": 1.543947601670344, "p_above_1": 0.44568795270982453, "p_above_1_10": 0.2939242983594311, "p_within_5pct": 0.16706996149207348, "boundary_mass": 1.4230117602103476e-20, "log_evidence": -6829.167988978081, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5598295319463722 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13275943848112043 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2090971973974781 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05792183137369096 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.030157163392197577 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010234837409587617 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 106.01832822448999, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 688.1699099364866, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009066967075530235 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 597.2525651559374, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010328856176763435 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 588.236176568003, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010685904390199084 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 496.4423889290917, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011526204016038934 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 344.95295566095376, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012623714236984175 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 290.01524235952655, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01303217752531474 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13928876167701865 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.6022685896872676, "ratio_median": 0.9681016025412372, "ratio_high": 1.5440714533230397, "p_above_1": 0.445214972389802, "p_above_1_10": 0.2935941917779179, "p_within_5pct": 0.16696298167514584, "boundary_mass": 5.929256372594183e-21, "log_evidence": -6828.619335441954, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5590104421799218 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13304449287388975 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20951842881222035 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05807827803588841 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.0301443731063187 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010203984991527554 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 460.5913632104019, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 970.1174263398227, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009066967075530235 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 935.8868854852111, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010328856176763435 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 931.6033935858518, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010685904390199084 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 897.1876600992939, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011526204016038934 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 844.7334510446502, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012623714236984175 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 820.9134744120889, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01303217752531474 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.13916871123282204 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6027493456376102, "ratio_median": 0.9702328035154728, "ratio_high": 1.543153993645869, "p_above_1": 0.4487305199704872, "p_above_1_10": 0.29604779364014666, "p_within_5pct": 0.16775813661217853, "boundary_mass": 6.76275372056386e-20, "log_evidence": -6830.480738592711, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5650985370193651 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.13092575296277817 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2063875182462301 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05691544807941334 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.03023944018754736 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.010433303504484763 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 100.81762846726761, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 688.1699099364866, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013756546089454926 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 597.2525651559374, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015270527038871008 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 588.236176568003, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015486620045569235 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 496.4423889290917, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017527146460970797 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 344.95295566095376, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02315537835891406 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 290.01524235952655, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.027207967688125192 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.14006101696484474 } ], "seconds": 261.9, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "czech_extended_curve", "category": "model", "description": "Extended Czech count curve (0-3 band, MenB/MenACWY columns)", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.6104497228567596, "ratio_median": 0.9730146982955413, "ratio_high": 1.5421895782435562, "p_above_1": 0.45303278674121805, "p_above_1_10": 0.29836472733844976, "p_within_5pct": 0.16982887537184727, "boundary_mass": 1.317002436913283e-21, "log_evidence": -8540.91015677638, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5813411591219009 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12782011272482388 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2016511063997703 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05353259063135998 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.0267183438938643 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008936687227708729 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 124.87740310678268, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 693.4265015227785, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008917780783277655 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 606.0490702329987, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010106332079293345 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 623.7225478996345, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009841629241189033 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 531.4358771458786, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010736057888854112 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 396.3974060541458, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010527069374484112 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 332.89549058371875, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011199322068521927 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.14054577407619484 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.610314000215055, "ratio_median": 0.9727347886850889, "ratio_high": 1.5423423500470659, "p_above_1": 0.4525660695041932, "p_above_1_10": 0.2980458464237318, "p_within_5pct": 0.16971529229047333, "boundary_mass": 6.7352742487727e-22, "log_evidence": -8540.361771229998, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5805434180066914 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12811736029757825 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2019850382676098 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05368526143694724 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02673959947538855 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008929322515819696 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 488.03767109464104, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 972.7184150952629, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008917780783277655 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 940.5984503187318, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010106332079293345 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 952.4074316079235, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009841629241189033 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 918.9556808900988, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010736057888854112 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 892.3203686407074, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010527069374484112 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 867.8230060984124, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011199322068521927 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1404378097439577 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6113419917178176, "ratio_median": 0.9748069568054388, "ratio_high": 1.5412116405391136, "p_above_1": 0.4560290959582113, "p_above_1_10": 0.30041193225849494, "p_within_5pct": 0.1705580749955083, "boundary_mass": 5.44809071972172e-21, "log_evidence": -8542.221184193028, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5864626306845773 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12591179314497464 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.19950727485985453 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05255244911201494 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.026581883763982392 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008983968434344743 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 124.87740310678268, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 693.4265015227785, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013664857341558038 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 606.0490702329987, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014880215066154766 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 623.7225478996345, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013611274283912069 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 531.4358771458786, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01578797576123938 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 396.3974060541458, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02341001185484017 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 332.89549058371875, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02755566059490105 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.14123890151278862 } ], "seconds": 252.9, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "core_rv_oct_window", "category": "core v2 specification", "description": "Rotavirus path on the Oct-1 count-date birth window", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/sensitivity/rv_oct_window", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5990285398640649, "ratio_median": 0.9574927339068997, "ratio_high": 1.5173580536541578, "p_above_1": 0.42584041751904766, "p_above_1_10": 0.2751263330457433, "p_within_5pct": 0.1678302846974108, "boundary_mass": 4.25536029291016e-21, "log_evidence": -6721.365709765745, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5811828723248822 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1256654074824871 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20386054605403817 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05314795123451523 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027209158585611556 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008934064318079324 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 104.94066018020713, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 718.1464629856927, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.007564970757445859 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 621.4506031304446, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008238409191720315 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 606.2433210813457, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00860095922493735 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 509.5862907140779, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009213264040084858 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 344.5673878848121, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010062200138064638 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 289.3774328677838, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010356730720772244 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12602164724378706 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5989538247116408, "ratio_median": 0.9572129020678133, "ratio_high": 1.5174740834070573, "p_above_1": 0.42538235761161236, "p_above_1_10": 0.27481865338567246, "p_within_5pct": 0.16771080569525448, "boundary_mass": 1.8216623040365565e-21, "log_evidence": -6720.817895428486, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5803440981771546 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12594751479512967 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20429376173021785 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05330025333456397 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027204081572510235 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00891029039050441 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 531.3128454053425, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1029.9379788033368, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.007564970757445859 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1002.0007985115708, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008238409191720315 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 999.1598907655385, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00860095922493735 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 966.5750210278693, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009213264040084858 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 915.2153076422334, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010062200138064638 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 889.7619387385103, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010356730720772244 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12591887216450037 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5995163843565858, "ratio_median": 0.9592778237416689, "ratio_high": 1.516619215335117, "p_above_1": 0.42876873219025247, "p_above_1_10": 0.27709328725412996, "p_within_5pct": 0.16859409770359202, "boundary_mass": 1.9813660441854512e-20, "log_evidence": -6722.673077789642, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5865450413414308 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12386193381264757 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2010910571739902 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05217430462912123 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027241615239752652 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009086047802762339 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 99.66784360419001, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 718.1464629856927, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0136753653723179 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 621.4506031304446, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015178038289220274 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 606.2433210813457, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015522122627688081 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 509.5862907140779, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01745634759847311 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 344.5673878848121, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.025479039573905442 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 289.3774328677838, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.029823081150828056 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12667867434090307 } ], "seconds": 247.1, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "core_no_shared_component", "category": "core v2 specification", "description": "No state x cohort component shared across age bands", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/sensitivity/no_shared_component", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5969405346635026, "ratio_median": 0.9542841111521704, "ratio_high": 1.5121626899775042, "p_above_1": 0.42019323291927624, "p_above_1_10": 0.27034735719649805, "p_within_5pct": 0.16736729835016828, "boundary_mass": 3.1011404631149456e-21, "log_evidence": -6765.815910843874, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5808533050061289 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12560395032453997 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20420729538035678 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05319391049322675 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02722119074330896 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008920348052848498 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 136.41965819412118, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 407.8022038375337, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.024936295628285855 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 373.58610678202666, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.024609102425625057 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 364.9484677522208, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02471168202683128 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 340.98783379071824, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0243201834355772 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 309.72495816406905, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0233851724887706 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 297.20726360357736, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02316846020032569 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1230857758980699 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5959429035225003, "ratio_median": 0.9531005273640702, "ratio_high": 1.511085840626195, "p_above_1": 0.4181879127370647, "p_above_1_10": 0.26879653576749174, "p_within_5pct": 0.1670316324524989, "boundary_mass": 2.173148327047895e-21, "log_evidence": -6765.243846995571, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.579157193485486 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1259600461067971 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20488085965272265 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0535411681666035 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027458078245365787 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00900265434334865 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 136.41965819412118, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 407.8022038375337, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.024936295628285855 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 373.58610678202666, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.024609102425625057 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 364.9484677522208, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02471168202683128 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 340.98783379071824, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0243201834355772 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 309.72495816406905, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.0233851724887706 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 297.20726360357736, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02316846020032569 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12226384660317957 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6051300781918639, "ratio_median": 0.9634429365160458, "ratio_high": 1.5202907040525135, "p_above_1": 0.43577229035445464, "p_above_1_10": 0.2823954761594798, "p_within_5pct": 0.169975040667461, "boundary_mass": 1.031058407991543e-20, "log_evidence": -6767.293970795921, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5940301627617333 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12283749103597359 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.1989744669376731 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05049611326042308 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.025380844232536323 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00828092177150336 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 190.6872600691655, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 543.5232610996727, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.023141822565183528 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 509.73894796292274, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02292790722214467 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 512.1805737356684, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.022624596864172272 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 476.3054482798683, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.022308794522319236 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 404.8881394112658, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02125791785409198 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 372.0173913121512, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.02086670413076045 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12947123185092113 } ], "seconds": 226.9, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "core_no_nuisance", "category": "core v2 specification", "description": "No HepA / influenza / Hib nuisance columns", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/sensitivity/no_nuisance", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5982799128993871, "ratio_median": 0.9565485405695626, "ratio_high": 1.5161430710601307, "p_above_1": 0.4242079518413582, "p_above_1_10": 0.2737964938173896, "p_within_5pct": 0.16763503013889092, "boundary_mass": 4.588829548733001e-21, "log_evidence": -6717.6917350463755, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5808189821400298 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1256634560505716 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2040338663227859 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0532136012554255 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027303651080497267 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00896644315038837 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 89.54912890249787, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 716.963409401579, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008156309167418482 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 606.4973232149306, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008615608816332793 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.7669171776192, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008987421443479564 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 483.65548767847406, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009628465171364353 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 301.25965582578874, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010504968298326409 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 250.07795579180694, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010816734748706737 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1252507612551751 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5982832917628859, "ratio_median": 0.9563077187930205, "ratio_high": 1.5162916893738643, "p_above_1": 0.42381398415538163, "p_above_1_10": 0.2735356906638693, "p_within_5pct": 0.16753107808758283, "boundary_mass": 1.8827085293292925e-21, "log_evidence": -6717.147432223454, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5801461289788667 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12592842333273335 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20442954554972523 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0533288849987862 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02724639509620843 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008920622043621061 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 535.7449033155241, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1059.7097736408173, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008156309167418482 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1028.048948498931, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008615608816332793 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1024.1786431178434, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008987421443479564 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 990.5627026078172, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009628465171364353 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 936.7958000503894, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010504968298326409 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 912.3869047953598, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010816734748706737 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12517209883282854 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.598258535550864, "ratio_median": 0.9580464731277045, "ratio_high": 1.5152193359284851, "p_above_1": 0.42666269611839647, "p_above_1_10": 0.2754215130038017, "p_within_5pct": 0.16828273732939714, "boundary_mass": 2.1450199965300615e-20, "log_evidence": -6718.97694120348, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.585011413412746 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1240124909014948 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20156845773136786 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05249528825846475 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02766040318168969 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.00925194651428546 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 85.0872503958654, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 716.963409401579, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.014946707614502855 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 606.4973232149306, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015762645949153536 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.7669171776192, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.016101352051009016 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 483.65548767847406, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01803976090622924 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 301.25965582578874, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.032453279439886594 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 250.07795579180694, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.037878746753557666 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1257408931550843 } ], "seconds": 223.5, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "core_no_break_screen", "category": "core v2 specification", "description": "EDFacts reporting-break series kept (no post-hoc screen); U.S. rotavirus 2006 untied as in the primary", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/sensitivity/no_break_screen", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.5986877404369241, "ratio_median": 0.9572968535051449, "ratio_high": 1.5171944576364074, "p_above_1": 0.42552322739285464, "p_above_1_10": 0.27490054264365316, "p_within_5pct": 0.16774600180734955, "boundary_mass": 6.3280474132345784e-21, "log_evidence": -7409.93175742263, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5801716231107841 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12586254652040524 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20418535518455377 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05336737637754838 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02740073415667689 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009012364649860737 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 166.5626806039505, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 628.2223581201638, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009032491150051178 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 572.2793814074683, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008974395558710654 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 561.7274015740776, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008804889293853764 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 512.5169851280754, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008752344014290555 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 428.39159026799035, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008555752360585757 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 385.54687441122843, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008505010876013616 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1259090948477678 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.5988425079327904, "ratio_median": 0.957251909092231, "ratio_high": 1.5174062211157333, "p_above_1": 0.42545327721119053, "p_above_1_10": 0.27487286000794364, "p_within_5pct": 0.1677148161444873, "boundary_mass": 2.128788230037135e-21, "log_evidence": -7409.360219491685, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5798082439536518 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1260312634175637 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.20442998538324075 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05342214970106491 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.0273396036423941 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.008968753902290265 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 887.6520791368624, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1444.9141058936, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009032491150051178 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1443.9339660261496, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008974395558710654 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1448.9765641659792, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008804889293853764 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1430.2606163253379, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008752344014290555 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1400.1385715844049, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008555752360585757 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 1370.4715323102223, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.008505010876013616 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12593478321867002 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.5974934763312848, "ratio_median": 0.957644214770045, "ratio_high": 1.5155509271331506, "p_above_1": 0.4260641654608238, "p_above_1_10": 0.2751146177342748, "p_within_5pct": 0.1679871664736029, "boundary_mass": 3.8801717893498296e-20, "log_evidence": -7411.405740988833, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5829817032940712 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12455782664438815 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2022935832999771 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.05294380384241345 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.027873468058273964 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009349614860996834 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 166.5626806039505, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 628.2223581201638, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.021147828716348484 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 572.2793814074683, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.020733696766715427 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 561.7274015740776, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.021029590110272244 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 512.5169851280754, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.020277246592786794 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 428.39159026799035, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01933053635372133 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 385.54687441122843, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.019981321722069147 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.1257104417837227 } ], "seconds": 211.4, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "exploratory_with_JE_composite", "category": "exploratory (outside D4)", "description": "NOT D4-eligible: adds the Japan JE autism-composite block (class other, report_only: outcome gate FAIL) as a JAPANESE_ENCEPHALITIS product; for information only", "power": 18, "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "omit": [], "frozen_omit": [], "bias": "primary", "blocks": [ "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "ENG_RV_backfill", "JPN_JE_HOKKAIDO_FY2016_mext_g1_rate" ], "untied_blocks": [], "dropped": null, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.6247028425420789, "ratio_median": 0.9671217311587588, "ratio_high": 1.4887839907853642, "p_above_1": 0.439154936370888, "p_above_1_10": 0.2776790850277616, "p_within_5pct": 0.17936209232504585, "boundary_mass": 5.282304076387356e-24, "log_evidence": -6563.156225687402, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.6570946556496039 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.1098637171023026 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.17436439951608335 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.038703659332846266 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.0153096539894844 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.004663914409857493 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 137.40834938890552, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 689.6695363489581, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00901007645610499 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 598.1722468007986, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010327804603648037 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.9967411402114, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01064035699252732 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 498.50452537158714, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011522734009337048 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 348.0853621797905, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012610060654324037 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 292.04383634618154, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013033221181890936 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12032444680313104 }, "by_scramble": [ { "seed": 23091, "ratio_low": 0.6245237680693965, "ratio_median": 0.9668269511941074, "ratio_high": 1.488741467244685, "p_above_1": 0.4386303181669666, "p_above_1_10": 0.2773065787219152, "p_within_5pct": 0.17924976311345975, "boundary_mass": 2.2263423194551815e-24, "log_evidence": -6562.607958890058, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.6562904758559951 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.11013973269602997 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.17477991483921795 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.03882549226266338 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.015311856645995317 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.004652527699814838 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 494.2953169665133, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 969.9116645440968, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.00901007645610499 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 935.1080584975739, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010327804603648037 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 931.2877414072577, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01064035699252732 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 896.3416324196528, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011522734009337048 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 844.3561327908089, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012610060654324037 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 820.307105492222, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013033221181890936 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12017507241094094 }, { "seed": 23092, "ratio_low": 0.6258440833633155, "ratio_median": 0.9690089759916869, "ratio_high": 1.4890545046995323, "p_above_1": 0.44252000269603897, "p_above_1_10": 0.2800684577493727, "p_within_5pct": 0.18008260725268993, "boundary_mass": 2.4884204891773148e-23, "log_evidence": -6564.466491074837, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.662252918023106 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.10809326618601015 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.171699153416565 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.037922184564297856 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.015295525457106142 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.004736952352927452 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 130.3370730428672, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 689.6695363489581, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.01379363696121539 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 598.1722468007986, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015263490765453136 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.9967411402114, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.015423250339172863 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 498.50452537158714, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.017531977084902752 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 348.0853621797905, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.022849915240254703 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 292.04383634618154, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.026968832396223292 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.12128258118482704 } ], "seconds": 203.6, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "shared_mean_prior_x0_5", "category": "prior", "power": 18, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.675088769679324, "ratio_median": 0.9652748650439811, "ratio_high": 1.3731727799804487, "p_above_1": 0.421038326722629, "p_above_1_10": 0.23082407103051816, "p_within_5pct": 0.21814465403915673, "boundary_mass": 2.1804967525515488e-32, "log_evidence": -6720.774736098022, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5941144664711753 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12559806232204265 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.19783976555196522 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.0506891842301139 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.02397662209928309 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.007781899325506044 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 144.90503531868288, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0971392177058, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009297484322596904 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.3382451204507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010520242268254078 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 577.1129858238808, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010981287312203162 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.83849386937106, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011759065991480761 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.38310528852907, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012836797544061616 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.4954725799496, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013211153396460102 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.07371933577321377 }, "description": "Shared-mean prior N(0, hypot(log 2, .15) x 0.5) (prior SD and shared-bias SD both scaled; post-processing of the primary)", "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "by_scramble": null, "seconds": 0.0, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false }, { "id": "shared_mean_prior_x2", "category": "prior", "power": 18, "summary": { "ratio_low": 0.4778642476376414, "ratio_median": 0.9539051251812157, "ratio_high": 1.8929691394203556, "p_above_1": 0.44618475000602076, "p_above_1_10": 0.3413800748797079, "p_within_5pct": 0.11312596994506763, "boundary_mass": 2.9448817763598404e-18, "log_evidence": -6722.025348470047, "heterogeneity_posterior": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.5762856216977008 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.12563743055925955 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.2059168173200741 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.054063918030665015 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "weight": 0.028637178023813045 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "weight": 0.009459034368204233 } ], "minimum_relevant_core_ess": 91.32947645167873, "core_integration_diagnostics": [ { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 681.0971392177058, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.009297484322596904 }, { "product_sd": 0.1, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 590.3382451204507, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010520242268254078 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 577.1129858238808, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.010981287312203162 }, { "product_sd": 0.35, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 486.83849386937106, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.011759065991480761 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.1, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 336.38310528852907, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.012836797544061616 }, { "product_sd": 0.7, "context_sd": 0.35, "reference_prior_integrated_core_ess": 283.4954725799496, "reference_prior_maximum_core_weight": 0.013211153396460102 } ], "p_above_1_25": 0.2190647059247096 }, "description": "Shared-mean prior N(0, hypot(log 2, .15) x 2) (prior SD and shared-bias SD both scaled; post-processing of the primary)", "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "untie": [ "US_RV2006" ], "by_scramble": null, "seconds": 0.0, "same_as": null, "diagnostic_of": null, "us_rv2006_tied": false, "ess_below_50": false } ], "gates": { "pooled": [ "US_PCV", "US_RotaShield", "JPN_MMR", "SWE_PCV_corrected", "DEU_PCV", "HKG_PCV_autism", "ENG_RV_backfill", "SCT_RV", "NIR_RV", "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics", "CZE_MMR_counts", "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism", "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism", "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism" ], "untied_core_slots": [ "US_RV2006" ], "excluded_candidates": [ { "id": "CAN_RV_newly_identified", "scope": "frozen_context", "decision": "replaced", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics (its curve substitutes this one)" }, { "id": "CHL_PCV_F84", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": "plasmode_only_failure", "reason": "D4 fails: plasmode; reported as a hierarchy sensitivity" }, { "id": "DEU_PCV_rebuilt", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": "plasmode_only_failure", "reason": "D4 fails: plasmode; reported as a hierarchy sensitivity" }, { "id": "DEU_PCV_rebuilt_16L_cc", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "D4 fails: one_likelihood_per_series, plasmode" }, { "id": "ENG_MMR_UTLA", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "D4 fails: placebo, plasmode" }, { "id": "ENG_RV", "scope": "frozen_context", "decision": "replaced", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "slot taken by the pooled replacement block ENG_RV_backfill (its curve substitutes this one)" }, { "id": "JPN_JE_HOKKAIDO_FY2016_mext_g1_rate", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "D4 fails: outcome" }, { "id": "KOR_SCHEDULE_autism", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "D4 fails: placebo, pretrend, harm_injection, plasmode" }, { "id": "POL_PCV_SIO_autism_enrol", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "D4 fails: pretrend" }, { "id": "QC_RV_ASD", "scope": "frozen_context", "decision": "replaced", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "slot taken by the pooled replacement block QC_RV_ASD_cnics (its curve substitutes this one)" }, { "id": "SWE_F84_allages_corrected", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "D4 fails: one_likelihood_per_series" }, { "id": "SWE_HEPB_F84_allages", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "D4 fails: one_likelihood_per_series" }, { "id": "SWE_HPV_F84_sex", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "D4 fails: one_likelihood_per_series" }, { "id": "SWE_PCV", "scope": "frozen_context", "decision": "replaced", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "slot taken by the pooled replacement block SWE_PCV_corrected (its curve substitutes this one)" }, { "id": "SWE_RV_F84_allages", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "D4 fails: one_likelihood_per_series" }, { "id": "TWN_VARICELLA_autism", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "D4 fails: placebo" }, { "id": "WAL_RV", "scope": "global_block", "decision": "report_only", "sensitivity": null, "reason": "D4 fails: pretrend" } ], "non_candidate_report_only": 81, "strict_two_sided_failures": [ "US_RotaShield", "NIR_RV", "CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics", "QC_RV_ASD_cnics" ], "bonferroni_two_sided_failures": [], "plasmode_only_failures": [ "CHL_PCV_F84", "DEU_PCV_rebuilt" ], "us_rv2006": { "decision": "pool", "pool_ready": false, "pool_ready_conditions": [ "B4 checker verdict missing: reconciliation plan item 4 requires the B4 checker verdict (scratchpad jump_designs/expansion/chk_B4-us-rota-hepa-2006) before U.S. RV2006 is pooled", "future-3 verdict PASS rests on the EDFacts reporting-break screen (|log ratio|>log 2 and Poisson z>5), added after pilot p12/p14 eta estimates; without it the future-3 verdict is FAIL (eta4_gates_no_break_screen.json); the lead has not accepted the screen" ], "open_lead_decisions": [ "cohort-2005 rotavirus coverage: core v2 keeps the 3200 birth-window remap (DEC-window state-mean coverage 0.036 for births Dec 2004-Nov 2005, from window smearing of NIS 2008 AGEGRP 3); the B4 checker c02 convention zeroes births before Nov 2005 (0.005 in its deconv / affine paths). Keep the remap as primary with a c02-convention sensitivity, or adopt the zero-before-Nov-2005 rule (neither run in H4)." ], "untied_in_primary": true, "lead_decision": "Lead decision (binding, 2026-09-25): U.S. rotavirus 2006 is NOT pool-ready under the pre-declared gate: its future+3 placebo includes 1 only after the post-hoc EDFacts reporting-break screen (without it the future+3 verdict is FAIL: project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/eta4_gates_no_break_screen.json) and the B4 checker verdict is missing (eta4_gates.json d4). It stays inside the joint U.S. likelihood (U.S. PCV and RotaShield remain adjusted for it) but is untied from the shared mean and the modern-rotavirus product in the primary and in every sensitivity; the screened-and-pooled version (the H4 reference) is the named sensitivity us_rv2006_screened_pooled.", "unscreened_future3": { "file": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/eta4_gates_no_break_screen.json", "sha256": "2c1b90f9544c14fde723ccec6f384f615b6da2d9953a091cd8cf34d5c17fcc29", "verdict": "FAIL", "intervals": { "reference": { "median": 1.160692092703484, "low": 0.9148398707546843, "high": 1.4690890747485361 }, "linear_only": { "median": 1.1606919351809775, "low": 0.9148399193685449, "high": 1.4690886305570474 }, "spline_only": { "median": 1.1652323755647127, "low": 0.9133448935458118, "high": 1.481200920808151 }, "rho_0_85": { "median": 1.305802234923459, "low": 1.0117710458466012, "high": 1.6749232131533707 } } }, "pooled_sensitivities": [ "us_rv2006_screened_pooled", "us_rv2006_fallback_block_pooled" ] } }, "settings": { "core_dir": "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2", "core_exposure": { "pcv": "any", "pcv_definition": "3200 any dose (NIS P_NUMPCV >= 1), IDEA birth-window remap; cohort 1997 := 0", "rotashield_1997": "coin", "rotashield_1997_definition": "raw 1997 remap kept with probability 1/2 (u[:,8])", "rv2006": "NIS P_NUMROT >= 1 (survey years >= 2004 except 2007, which did not capture RotaTeq), DEC birth-window remap (prepare_us_joint_inputs.window_probs), cohorts <= 2004 := 0; bootstrap draw u[:,5]", "joint_receipt": "PCV x RotaShield: run_portfolio_likelihood.prepare_shifts; PCV x rotavirus 2006: dependence draw u[:,9] (lower / independent / upper Frechet bound), no interaction" }, "core_settings": { "groups": [ "A8", "EC", "CA79" ], "eta4": true, "nuisance": [ "hepa", "flu", "hib" ], "shared": 0.35, "pcv": "any", "rv_window": "DEC", "rotashield_1997": "coin" }, "core_sampled_effects": [ "eta0 U.S. PCV", "eta1 RotaShield", "eta2 Japan MMR", "eta3 PCV x RotaShield interaction", "eta4 U.S. modern rotavirus 2006" ], "core_products": { "PCV": 0, "MMR": 2, "modern_rotavirus": 4 }, "untied_core_slots": [ "US_RV2006" ], "context_bias_sd": { "ENG_RV": 0.35, "SWE_PCV": 0.7, "DEU_PCV": 0.7, "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism": 0.35, "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism": 0.7, "CAN_RV_newly_identified": 0.35, "QC_RV_ASD": 0.35, "NIR_RV": 0.35, "HKG_PCV_autism": 0.7, "SCT_RV": 0.35, "CZE_MMR_counts": 0.7, "CHL_PCV_F84": 0.7, "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism": 0.35, "POL_PCV_SIO_autism_enrol": 0.35, "US_PCV": 0.7, "US_RotaShield": 0.7, "JPN_MMR": 0.7, "US_RV2006": 0.35 }, "context_bias_sd_source": "project_results/global_integration/placebo_family/placebo_calibration.json", "frozen_contexts_omitted": [], "gate_decisions_sha256": "688fc4cdb470029bdda7a95ce278e8feac5c547bd8f43e2adf415630e33cd1f4" }, "context_bias_sd": { "ENG_RV": 0.35, "SWE_PCV": 0.7, "DEU_PCV": 0.7, "TZA_SCHEDULE_autism": 0.35, "BRA_MDTPA_census_autism": 0.7, "CAN_RV_newly_identified": 0.35, "QC_RV_ASD": 0.35, "NIR_RV": 0.35, "HKG_PCV_autism": 0.7, "SCT_RV": 0.35, "CZE_MMR_counts": 0.7, "CHL_PCV_F84": 0.7, "COL_VARICELLA_school_autism": 0.35, "POL_PCV_SIO_autism_enrol": 0.35, "US_PCV": 0.7, "US_RotaShield": 0.7, "JPN_MMR": 0.7, "US_RV2006": 0.35 }, "regression": { "zero_block_legacy_core_published_sd": { "ratio_median": 1.028242958813937, "ratio_low": 0.6128930327048665, "ratio_high": 1.6696619265788848 }, "statement": "With no new blocks, the legacy core and the published bias SDs the p18 model reproduces project_results/scotland_support/synthesis to 1e-8 (regression_test).", "detail_components_max_abs_diff": 0.0 }, "numerical": { "power": 18, "primary_power": 18, "grid_points": 241, "seeds": [ 23091, 23092 ], "heterogeneity_grid": { "product_sd": [ 0.1, 0.35, 0.7 ], "context_sd": [ 0.1, 0.35 ] }, "fallback_rule": "p20 when the minimum relevant core ESS < 50: applied uniformly to every fitted p18 spec and to the shared-mean prior-scale rows (recomputed from a p20 fit of the primary); the p18 value kept as _p18_diagnostic", "p20_refits": [ "core_v2_infant_lt7", "core_bias_japan_only", "wide_context_bias" ], "p18_diagnostics": { "core_v2_infant_lt7": 4.244123945140217, "core_bias_japan_only": 45.40235533855865, "wide_context_bias": 39.60849501379947 }, "d1_fallback": { "triggered": true, "core_v2_ess": 22.739716280900744, "core_v2_power": 20 } }, "sha256": { "processed/global_hierarchy.py": "25dae69b233378e3736df1de37e03fcc420048c8deb3f814a30b5efab475ced0", "processed/international_hierarchy.py": "7757e1bdad248377cc9c7b36b1c6e09d79060b64e0f3544acaa51e1720762c10", "processed/count_extension_hierarchy.py": "830cefa08486bd8d8e080dd2dd8a38a0e398eab9636b05774581e168c0791ac4", "processed/scotland_synthesis_replacement.py": "402a212e4fbc02f2feaca84ad19045891b4c819ffd1574db5775220915c7e140", "project_results/global_integration/gate_decisions.json": "688fc4cdb470029bdda7a95ce278e8feac5c547bd8f43e2adf415630e33cd1f4", "project_results/global_integration/placebo_family/placebo_calibration.json": "419e6a3173242c23a98d5c7772f1c0f4fe1ada45bd0e4ab872bfd109568a86aa", "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/likelihood_p18_s23091.npz": "7324ed5a2084ce63d1e7fb614377aecff5264b4b2e5c98637eb0c2c73c2b097a", "project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/likelihood_p18_s23092.npz": "656dfb80a0a27ea836a1dbf2fa3243dff98d53cb4b579ecb7a644b56fcf0d0c6" }, "structure": "Global autism hierarchy: the current primary synthesis (count extension + Scottish count replacement) extended with\nthe 2026-09-24 global-integration blocks.\n\nStructure (identical to count_extension_hierarchy.component when no new blocks are supplied; tested to 1e-10):\n * PCV, MMR and modern-rotavirus contexts join their existing product functions. PCV and MMR remain conditional on the\n U.S./Japan core draws (eta[:,0], eta[:,2]); modern rotavirus is core-free on a core without eta4 (as before) and\n conditional on eta[:,4] on core v2 (stage 2b H4, below).\n * Products with no core data (DTP, HEPB, HPV, ...) enter as core-free product effects: each product function is the\n product of its context functions, smoothed by the product SD and evaluated at the shared hypermean.\n * Each new context contributes context_function(curve, sd = hypot(context SD, bias_sd x bias multiplier)).\n Contexts sharing a country within a product share a country bias term (smooth 0.20 x multiplier), as for the UK\n trio and the Canadian group.\n * Only autism-class primary blocks enter. Non-autism outcomes are never multiplied into this model.\n * A block with `replaces` substitutes its curve for the named existing context's curve in place, keeping that\n context's shared-bias grouping (overlap replacement; never both copies).\n * Context bias SDs: by default the published values (builder .35 / .70, Czech .70, new blocks their BIAS_LEVELS\n class, U.S./Japan core [.15, .15, .25]). A placebo-calibrated map (processed/global_placebo_family.py, reconciliation\n A3; --calibrated-bias) replaces them per context slot: builder names (a replacement block is calibrated under the\n name it replaces), new-block ids, 'CZE_MMR_counts' and the core slots 'US_PCV', 'US_RotaShield', 'JPN_MMR' (and,\n stage 2b H4, 'US_RV2006'). The PCV x RotaShield interaction prior (hypot(log 2, .15)) is not a context bias and is\n unchanged.\n\nStage 2b (2026-09-25; lead decisions D1-D5):\n * core: project_results/portfolio_v2 (R_any primary); the frozen published core project_results/portfolio is the\n regression target's core (LEGACY_CORE_DIR);\n * bias SDs: the placebo-calibrated map is the CLI default (D3 primary, core [.70, .70, .70]); --published-bias forces\n the published values;\n * gates: global_integration/gate_decisions.json (build_gate_decisions.py) records every block's D4 decision; a frozen\n builder context whose decision is 'report_only' is omitted from the builder unless a replacement curve substitutes it;\n * outputs: global_integration/hierarchy_v2 (OUT). global_integration/hierarchy (PUBLISHED_OUT) is the frozen\n 2026-09-24 record (legacy core, published SDs); this module never overwrites its files.\n\nStage 2b H4 (2026-09-25, final hierarchy; reconciliation plan items 4-5):\n * core: CORE_DIR = project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2, the joint U.S. series likelihood (IDEA age 8, EDFacts ages\n 3-5, CASEMIS ages 7-9; 1,469 U.S. cells) plus Japan, with five sampled effects: eta0 U.S. PCV (R_any), eta1\n RotaShield, eta2 Japan MMR, eta3 PCV x RotaShield interaction, eta4 U.S. modern rotavirus 2006. The pre-H2 core\n (project_results/portfolio_v2, four effects on the 353 IDEA cells) is CORE_V1_DIR (scenario core_v1_R_any);\n * CORE_PRODUCTS['modern_rotavirus'] = 4: eta4 is the U.S. context of the modern-rotavirus product exactly as eta0 is\n for PCV and eta2 for MMR: N(eta4; mu, tp^2 + vcore_RV) and the foreign rotavirus product function enters through\n count_extension_hierarchy.conditional_product(modern, grid, tp, vcore_RV) at gain x eta4 + (1 - gain) x mu (the\n core-free `+ log mod(mu)` term is dropped). vcore_RV = tc^2 + (bias multiplier x bias_RV)^2 with bias_RV the\n calibrated US_RV2006 slot (published default .35: the class floor of an education autism series; no published\n value exists). On a core without eta4 the old path is kept exactly, so regression_test() still reproduces the\n Scottish-replacement synthesis to 1e-8;\n * untie=(slot, ...): a core context removed from the shared-mean hierarchy. Its column gets the centre-free prior\n N(0, log 2^2 + .15^2 + tp^2 + vcore_slot) (the prior it has when tied, with its own independent hypermean draw),\n and its product, if any, becomes core-free (smooth(F, tp) at mu). Because logq is the proposal density of every\n sampled column, a column that is not a context of the model must carry such a prior (never be left without one);\n * pre-declared fallback (not triggered for the primary): a U.S. rotavirus 2006 one-dimensional block\n (core_v2/fallback_rv2006_block) enters as a U.S. modern-rotavirus context with context bias\n hypot(bias_RV, .20) (the added 0.20 U.S. bias term) on a core without eta4;\n * run_final(): the primary synthesis and every pre-declared sensitivity of stage 2b H4, with per-context and\n per-product posteriors of the primary (posterior_detail), written to global_integration/hierarchy/\n hierarchy_final_p{power}.json (new files; the 2026-09-24 hierarchy_p16/p18.json there are never touched).\n\nStage 2b H4 rebase (2026-09-25, lead decision, binding): U.S. rotavirus 2006 is NOT pool-ready under the pre-declared\ngate (its future+3 placebo includes 1 only after the post-hoc EDFacts reporting-break screen, and the B4 checker verdict\nis missing). core_untied() therefore also unties every core slot whose gate record says pool_ready false, so US_RV2006\nstays inside the joint U.S. likelihood (U.S. PCV and RotaShield remain adjusted for it) but is untied from the shared\nmean and from the modern-rotavirus product (core-free) in the primary and in every sensitivity. A spec that unties\nUS_RV2006 does not pool the 1-D fallback block either (that block is the same context on a core without eta4). The\nscreened-and-pooled model (the H4 reference) is the named sensitivity us_rv2006_screened_pooled (and the H4 1-D block\nsensitivity is us_rv2006_fallback_block_pooled). The pre-declared numerical rule is applied uniformly by run_final: every\nfitted p18 spec whose minimum relevant core ESS is < 50 is refitted and reported at p20, the p18 fit kept as the row\n_p18_diagnostic; the D1 infant-path fallback is then decided from the core-v2 R_lt7 row's reported ESS. The H4\noutputs are kept as hierarchy_final_p{16,18}_screened_rv2006_pooled.json.\n\nStage 2b H4 rebase repair (2026-09-25): on a core without eta4 (core v1) an untied US_RV2006 is no longer DROPPED with its\n1-D fallback block; the block stays in the model UNTIED, exactly as eta4 does on core v2 (untie=): its likelihood is\nintegrated against its centre-free prior N(0, PRIOR_VAR + tp^2 + tc^2 + b^2), b = bias multiplier x hypot(bias_RV,\n.20) (untied_block_marginal; a constant in the shared mean that reweights the heterogeneity components), and it is never\npooled. So us_rv2006_fallback_block (core v1 + the untied block) is its own model, and core_infant_lt7_fallback keeps\nits block untied; core_v1_R_any has neither eta4 nor the block (US_RV2006 is not in that model, as in the pre-H2\nhierarchy_v2 model). The two shared-mean prior rows follow the same p20 rule as every other row (their ESS flag is\ncomputed, and a prior row below the floor at p18 is recomputed from a p20 fit of the primary; prior_scale_rows).\n", "seconds": 303.7 }