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by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5)", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v5c_v5e/pool/pooled_v5c.csv", "locator": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/data_estimated_sigma_v4.json sigma_ctx / sqrt(K_eff of qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv headline row)", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "shared_bias.sqrt_K_eff", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 5.1025833560874565, "display": "5.10", "estimand": "sqrt(K_eff)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v5c primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5)", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v5c_v5e/pool/pooled_v5c.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; sqrt(K_eff)", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "weights_v3.GBR", "group": "weights", "value": 0.35293, "display": "35.3%", "estimand": "v3 final fixed-information weight share", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final, no INEP, linear w66", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, \"v3 final (fixed information, no INEP) weights\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "weights_v3.USA", "group": "weights", "value": 0.34841, "display": "34.8%", "estimand": "v3 final fixed-information weight share", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final, no INEP, linear w66", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, \"v3 final (fixed information, no INEP) weights\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "weights_v3.JPN", "group": "weights", "value": 0.05861, "display": "5.9%", "estimand": "v3 final fixed-information weight share", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final, no INEP, linear w66", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, \"v3 final (fixed information, no INEP) weights\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "weights_v3.CAN", "group": "weights", "value": 0.04607, "display": "4.6%", "estimand": "v3 final fixed-information weight share", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final, no INEP, linear w66", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, \"v3 final (fixed information, no INEP) weights\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "weights_v3.BRA", "group": "weights", "value": 0.01524, "display": "1.5%", "estimand": "v3 final fixed-information weight share", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final, no INEP, linear w66", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, \"v3 final (fixed information, no INEP) weights\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "weights_v3.GBR_plus_USA", "group": "weights", "value": 0.7013400000000001, "display": "70.1%", "estimand": "v3 UK + US share", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, v3 final weights GBR+USA", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "weights_v3.K_eff", "group": "weights", "value": 3.91, "display": "3.91", "estimand": "v3 final effective K", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, \"effective K\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v3.final.rr", "group": "history", "value": 0.929, "display": "0.929", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v3.final.inner_lo", "group": "history", "value": 0.891, "display": "0.891", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "sampling + kernel envelope 95%", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v3.final.inner_hi", "group": "history", "value": 1.028, "display": "1.028", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "sampling + kernel envelope 95%", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v3.final.outer_lo", "group": "history", "value": 0.564, "display": "0.564", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "outer (declared allowances)", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v3.final.outer_hi", "group": "history", "value": 1.599, "display": "1.599", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "outer (declared allowances)", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v3.final.de_lo", "group": "history", "value": 0.643, "display": "0.643", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "data-estimated (placebo) 95%", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v3.final.de_hi", "group": "history", "value": 1.406, "display": "1.406", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "data-estimated (placebo) 95%", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v1.rr", "group": "history", "value": 0.954, "display": "0.954", "estimand": "v1 individual-scale RR (fixed weights, extrapolated pretrend)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "v1 RULE_9150", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS.md", "locator": "## Headline, row \"B: individual-scale RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v1.de_lo", "group": "history", "value": 0.686, "display": "0.686", "estimand": "v1 RR", "ci_type": "data-estimated (placebo) 95%", "spec": "v1", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS.md", "locator": "## Headline, row B", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v1.de_hi", "group": "history", "value": 1.328, "display": "1.328", "estimand": "v1 RR", "ci_type": "data-estimated (placebo) 95%", "spec": "v1", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS.md", "locator": "## Headline, row B", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v2.rr", "group": "history", "value": 0.949, "display": "0.949", "estimand": "v2 individual RR", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "v2 RULE_9157", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v2.md", "locator": "## Headline v2, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v2.de_lo", "group": "history", "value": 0.633, "display": "0.633", "estimand": "v2 RR", "ci_type": "data-estimated (placebo) 95%", "spec": "v2", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v2.md", "locator": "## Headline v2, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v2.de_hi", "group": "history", "value": 1.425, "display": "1.425", "estimand": "v2 RR", "ci_type": "data-estimated (placebo) 95%", "spec": "v2", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v2.md", "locator": "## Headline v2, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v1.n_stacks_rr", "group": "history", "value": 1490, "display": "1,490", "estimand": "v1 RR-panel stacks", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v1", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS.md", "locator": "## Headline, \"Panel B pools the ... stacks\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v1.n_countries", "group": "history", "value": 7, "display": "7", "estimand": "v1 countries", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v1", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS.md", "locator": "## Headline, \"Panel B pools\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v2.n_countries_rr", "group": "history", "value": 14, "display": "14", "estimand": "v2 RR-panel countries", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v2", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## v1 / v2 / v3 side by side, row \"Countries raw / RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v3.n_countries_rr", "group": "history", "value": 28, "display": "28", "estimand": "v3 RR-panel countries", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## v1 / v2 / v3 side by side, row \"Countries raw / RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v1.K_eff_rr", "group": "history", "value": 2.1, "display": "2.10", "estimand": "v1 RR effective K", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v1", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## v1 / v2 / v3 side by side, row \"Effective K raw / RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v2.K_eff_rr", "group": "history", "value": 3.01, "display": "3.01", "estimand": "v2 RR effective K", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v2", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## v1 / v2 / v3 side by side, row \"Effective K raw / RR\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v3.most_precise.rr", "group": "history", "value": 0.919, "display": "0.919", "estimand": "v3 most precise valid spec (no mandate stacks)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "v3", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RULE_9159.md", "locator": "\"What was visible when this rule was written\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v3.most_precise.cal_lo", "group": "history", "value": 0.668, "display": "0.668", "estimand": "v3 most precise", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI", "spec": "v3", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RULE_9159.md", "locator": "\"What was visible\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v3.most_precise.cal_hi", "group": "history", "value": 1.265, "display": "1.265", "estimand": "v3 most precise", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI", "spec": "v3", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RULE_9159.md", "locator": "\"What was visible\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "inep.remodel.rr", "group": "inep", "value": 1.34, "display": "1.340", "estimand": "Brazil INEP remodel RR (report-only; failed gates)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "RULE_9158b", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Brazil INEP remodel, Verdict paragraph", "note": "", "status": "report-only" }, { "key": "inep.remodel.inner_lo", "group": "inep", "value": 0.984, "display": "0.984", "estimand": "INEP remodel", "ci_type": "sampling (inner) 95%", "spec": "RULE_9158b", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Brazil INEP remodel, Verdict", "note": "", "status": "report-only" }, { "key": "inep.remodel.inner_hi", "group": "inep", "value": 1.826, "display": "1.826", "estimand": "INEP remodel", "ci_type": "sampling (inner) 95%", "spec": "RULE_9158b", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Brazil INEP remodel, Verdict", "note": "", "status": "report-only" }, { "key": "inep.remodel.planted125_rel_err_pct", "group": "inep", "value": -12.6, "display": "-12.6%", "estimand": "INEP remodel planted x1.25 recovery error", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "RULE_9158b", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Brazil INEP remodel, gate table row \"Injection r = 1.25\"", "note": "", "status": "report-only" }, { "key": "inep.contrast.rr", "group": "inep", "value": 1.425, "display": "1.425", "estimand": "INEP within-census contrast RR (report-only; failed gates)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "RULE_9158c", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Brazil INEP within-census contrast, Verdict", "note": "", "status": "report-only" }, { "key": "inep.remodel.future3_theta", "group": "inep", "value": 0.995, "display": "0.995", "estimand": "INEP remodel future+3 placebo theta (should be ~0)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "RULE_9158b", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Brazil INEP remodel, gate row \"Future+3 placebo\"", "note": "", "status": "report-only" }, { "key": "pcv.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.001501125563715, "display": "1.00", "estimand": "PCV-specific per-child RR (v3 method, not v4 RE)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "pcv_estimates.csv row label=\"PCV, all countries\"; rr", "note": "Computed with the v3 pooling (fixed information weights), not the v4 RE estimator.", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.7057523725690191, "display": "0.71", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3 components)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "pcv_estimates.csv row label=\"PCV, all countries\"; lo_de", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.421184743388587, "display": "1.42", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3 components)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "pcv_estimates.csv row label=\"PCV, all countries\"; hi_de", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.n_countries", "group": "pcv", "value": 19, "display": "19", "estimand": "countries with PCV-led stacks", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "pcv_estimates.csv row label=\"PCV, all countries\"; n_countries", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.n_stacks", "group": "pcv", "value": 1482, "display": "1,482", "estimand": "PCV-led stacks", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "pcv_estimates.csv row label=\"PCV, all countries\"; n_stacks", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.K_eff", "group": "pcv", "value": 3.4574793777334216, "display": "3.46", "estimand": "effective K (v3 weights)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "pcv_estimates.csv row label=\"PCV, all countries\"; K_eff", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.country.AUS.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.3060404463320794, "display": "1.31", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, AUS", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, AUS\"; rr", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.country.AUS.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.6697975338182007, "display": "0.67", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, AUS", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, AUS\"; lo_de", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.country.AUS.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 2.546652624609807, "display": "2.55", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, AUS", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, AUS\"; hi_de", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.country.BRA.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.9277434863294591, "display": "0.93", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, BRA", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, BRA\"; rr", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.country.BRA.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.4375096604806278, "display": "0.44", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, BRA", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, BRA\"; lo_de", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.country.BRA.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.9672890776427783, "display": "1.97", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, BRA", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, BRA\"; hi_de", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.country.CHL.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.9574325540919122, "display": "0.96", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, CHL", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, CHL\"; rr", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.country.CHL.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.3397639991673438, "display": "0.34", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, CHL", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, CHL\"; lo_de", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.country.CHL.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 2.697981828214448, "display": "2.70", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, CHL", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, CHL\"; hi_de", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.country.COL.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.8620000071713195, "display": "0.86", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, COL", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, COL\"; rr", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "pcv.country.COL.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.41047244782743697, "display": 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"cancer", "value": 1.1841740193950452, "display": "1.18", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "posterior median", "spec": "9030 synthesis, A1_calibrated", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A1_calibrated.median", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.A1_calibrated.low", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.8917904899548176, "display": "0.89", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "9030 synthesis, A1_calibrated", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A1_calibrated.low", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.A1_calibrated.high", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.557154154148725, "display": "1.56", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "9030 synthesis, A1_calibrated", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A1_calibrated.high", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.A1_calibrated.p_gt_125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.35107929661246096, "display": "0.351", "estimand": "posterior P(r > 1.25)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 A1_calibrated", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A1_calibrated.p_gt_1.25", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.A1_calibrated.excludes_125", "group": "cancer", "value": false, "display": "False", "estimand": "97.5% upper limit < 1.25", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 A1_calibrated", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A1_calibrated.excludes_1.25", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.A3_doubled.median", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.1560693599366734, "display": "1.16", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "posterior median", "spec": "9030 synthesis, A3_doubled", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A3_doubled.median", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.A3_doubled.low", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.6843226821115588, "display": "0.68", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "9030 synthesis, A3_doubled", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A3_doubled.low", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.A3_doubled.high", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.9469214159321269, "display": "1.95", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "9030 synthesis, A3_doubled", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A3_doubled.high", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.A3_doubled.p_gt_125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.38472875522972627, "display": "0.385", "estimand": "posterior P(r > 1.25)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 A3_doubled", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A3_doubled.p_gt_1.25", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.A3_doubled.excludes_125", "group": "cancer", "value": false, "display": "False", "estimand": "97.5% upper limit < 1.25", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 A3_doubled", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A3_doubled.excludes_1.25", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.H_headline.median", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.1360143434016796, "display": "1.14", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "posterior median", "spec": "9030 synthesis, H_headline", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.H_headline.median", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.H_headline.low", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.6494477842731835, "display": "0.65", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "9030 synthesis, H_headline", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.H_headline.low", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.H_headline.high", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.8559563001860409, "display": "1.86", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "9030 synthesis, H_headline", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.H_headline.high", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.H_headline.p_gt_125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.33821848101490715, "display": "0.338", "estimand": "posterior P(r > 1.25)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 H_headline", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.H_headline.p_gt_1.25", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.H_headline.excludes_125", "group": "cancer", "value": false, "display": "False", "estimand": "97.5% upper limit < 1.25", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 H_headline", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.H_headline.excludes_1.25", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.C1.contexts", "group": "cancer", "value": 9, "display": "9", "estimand": "gated contexts pooled", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 A1_headline", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Pooled, row \"C1 | A1_headline\"", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.power.C2.r1.0.p_exclude125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.43, "display": "0.43", "estimand": "P(exclude 1.25) at true r=1.0", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power, 400 replicates", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C2 1.0", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.power.C2.r1.0.p_detect", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.03, "display": "0.03", "estimand": "P(detect) at true r=1.0", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C2 1.0", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.power.C2.r1.5.p_exclude125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.0, "display": "0.00", "estimand": "P(exclude 1.25) at true r=1.5", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power, 400 replicates", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C2 1.5", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.power.C2.r1.5.p_detect", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.86, "display": "0.86", "estimand": "P(detect) at true r=1.5", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C2 1.5", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.power.C6.r1.0.p_exclude125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.29, "display": "0.29", "estimand": "P(exclude 1.25) at true r=1.0", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power, 400 replicates", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C6 1.0", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.power.C6.r1.0.p_detect", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.01, "display": "0.01", "estimand": "P(detect) at true r=1.0", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C6 1.0", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.power.C6.r1.5.p_exclude125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.0, "display": "0.00", "estimand": "P(exclude 1.25) at true r=1.5", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power, 400 replicates", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C6 1.5", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.power.C6.r1.5.p_detect", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.72, "display": "0.72", "estimand": "P(detect) at true r=1.5", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C6 1.5", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.power.C1.r1.0.p_exclude125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.24, "display": "0.24", "estimand": "P(exclude 1.25) at true r=1.0", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power, 400 replicates", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C1 1.0", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.power.C1.r1.0.p_detect", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.01, "display": "0.01", "estimand": "P(detect) at true r=1.0", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C1 1.0", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.power.C1.r1.5.p_exclude125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.0, "display": "0.00", "estimand": "P(exclude 1.25) at true r=1.5", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power, 400 replicates", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C1 1.5", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.power.C1.r1.5.p_detect", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.62, "display": "0.62", "estimand": "P(detect) at true r=1.5", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C1 1.5", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.summative.C2.step", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.01, "display": "1.010", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.summative.C2.lo", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.99, "display": "0.990", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "95% CI", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.summative.C2.hi", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.041, "display": "1.041", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "95% CI", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.summative.C2.contexts", "group": "cancer", "value": 13, "display": "13", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.summative.C2.series", "group": "cancer", "value": 86, "display": "86", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.summative.C6.step", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.01, "display": "1.010", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.summative.C6.lo", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.97, "display": "0.970", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "95% CI", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.summative.C6.hi", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.051, "display": "1.051", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "95% CI", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.summative.C6.contexts", "group": "cancer", "value": 10, "display": "10", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.summative.C6.series", "group": "cancer", "value": 36, "display": "36", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.P2.CZE_D06.median", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.42, "display": "0.42", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "posterior median", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row CZE_D06", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.P2.CZE_D06.low", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.18, "display": "0.18", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row CZE_D06", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.P2.CZE_D06.high", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.83, "display": "0.83", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row CZE_D06", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.P2.JPN_3PREF_C53D06.median", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.56, "display": "0.56", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "posterior median", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row JPN_3PREF_C53D06", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.P2.JPN_3PREF_C53D06.low", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.33, "display": "0.33", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row JPN_3PREF_C53D06", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.P2.JPN_3PREF_C53D06.high", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.86, "display": "0.86", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row JPN_3PREF_C53D06", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "cancer.P2.JPN_NCR_C53D06.median", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.5, "display": "0.50", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "posterior median", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": 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"source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/9000_rule.json", "locator": "allowances.headline", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.headline.distinct_schedule_changes", "group": "headline", "value": 321, "display": "321", "estimand": "distinct dated schedule changes behind the headline comparisons (before exclusions)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5)", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/profiles/real_scaled_linear_w66.parquet", "locator": "computed; status ok, finite phi, finite dense-grid profile", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.headline.comparisons_in_profiles", "group": "headline", "value": 35236, "display": "35,236", "estimand": "comparisons before cross-country exclusion", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 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"qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/profiles/real_scaled_linear_w66.parquet", "locator": "computed; minus excluded countries", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.cal.s0.00.lo", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 0.811591757724112, "display": "0.812", "estimand": "headline per-child RR interval under an added shared-bias SD s", "ci_type": "95% interval, variance = var_cal + s^2", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5); s = 0.00", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; exp(est -/+ 1.96 sqrt(var_cal + 0.00^2))", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger); s = 0.09 is the upper end of the v4 placebo profile CI for the shared component; 0.15 the declared allowance", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.cal.s0.00.hi", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 1.1474561994951684, "display": "1.147", "estimand": "headline per-child RR interval under an added shared-bias SD s", "ci_type": "95% interval, variance = var_cal + s^2", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5); s = 0.00", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; exp(est -/+ 1.96 sqrt(var_cal + 0.00^2))", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.re.s0.00.lo", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 0.8100305508809446, "display": "0.810", "estimand": "headline per-child RR interval under an added shared-bias SD s", "ci_type": "95% interval, variance = var_re + s^2", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5); s = 0.00", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; exp(est -/+ 1.96 sqrt(var_re + 0.00^2))", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger); s = 0.09 is the upper end of the v4 placebo profile CI for the shared component; 0.15 the declared allowance", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.re.s0.00.hi", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 1.1496677413548406, "display": "1.150", "estimand": "headline per-child RR interval under an added shared-bias SD s", "ci_type": "95% interval, variance = var_re + s^2", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5); s = 0.00", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; exp(est -/+ 1.96 sqrt(var_re + 0.00^2))", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.cal.s0.09.lo", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 0.753682131857613, "display": "0.754", "estimand": "headline per-child RR interval under an added shared-bias SD s", "ci_type": "95% interval, variance = var_cal + s^2", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5); s = 0.09", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; exp(est -/+ 1.96 sqrt(var_cal + 0.09^2))", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger); s = 0.09 is the upper end of the v4 placebo profile CI for the shared component; 0.15 the declared allowance", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.cal.s0.09.hi", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 1.2356216957995356, "display": "1.236", "estimand": "headline per-child RR interval under an added shared-bias SD s", "ci_type": "95% interval, variance = var_cal + s^2", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5); s = 0.09", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; exp(est -/+ 1.96 sqrt(var_cal + 0.09^2))", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.re.s0.09.lo", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 0.7526633677411306, "display": "0.753", "estimand": "headline per-child RR interval under an added shared-bias SD s", "ci_type": "95% interval, variance = var_re + s^2", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5); s = 0.09", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; exp(est -/+ 1.96 sqrt(var_re + 0.09^2))", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger); s = 0.09 is the upper end of the v4 placebo profile CI for the shared component; 0.15 the declared allowance", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.re.s0.09.hi", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 1.2372941659889716, "display": "1.237", "estimand": "headline per-child RR interval under an added shared-bias SD s", "ci_type": "95% interval, variance = var_re + s^2", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5); s = 0.09", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; exp(est -/+ 1.96 sqrt(var_re + 0.09^2))", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.cal.s0.15.lo", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 0.6860525136996591, "display": "0.686", "estimand": "headline per-child RR interval under an added shared-bias SD s", "ci_type": "95% interval, variance = var_cal + s^2", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5); s = 0.15", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; exp(est -/+ 1.96 sqrt(var_cal + 0.15^2))", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger); s = 0.09 is the upper end of the v4 placebo profile CI for the shared component; 0.15 the declared allowance", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.cal.s0.15.hi", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 1.3574266914899806, "display": "1.357", "estimand": "headline per-child RR interval under an added shared-bias SD s", "ci_type": "95% interval, variance = var_cal + s^2", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5); s = 0.15", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; exp(est -/+ 1.96 sqrt(var_cal + 0.15^2))", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.re.s0.15.lo", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 0.6853797004746586, "display": "0.685", "estimand": "headline per-child RR interval under an added shared-bias SD s", "ci_type": "95% interval, variance = var_re + s^2", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5); s = 0.15", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; exp(est -/+ 1.96 sqrt(var_re + 0.15^2))", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger); s = 0.09 is the upper end of the v4 placebo profile CI for the shared component; 0.15 the declared allowance", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.re.s0.15.hi", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 1.3587592296865025, "display": "1.359", "estimand": "headline per-child RR interval under an added shared-bias SD s", "ci_type": "95% interval, variance = var_re + s^2", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5); s = 0.15", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; exp(est -/+ 1.96 sqrt(var_re + 0.15^2))", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.country_sd_over_sqrtK.tau", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 0.07618407942058932, "display": "0.076", "estimand": "country-level bias SD averaged over K_eff countries (tau 0.33/sqrt(K_eff))", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5)", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; tau / sqrt(K_eff)", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.country_sd_over_sqrtK.sigma_ctx", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 0.07502977518694402, "display": "0.075", "estimand": "country-level bias SD averaged over K_eff countries (sigma_ctx 0.325/sqrt(K_eff))", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5)", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/data_estimated_sigma_v4.json sigma_ctx / sqrt(K_eff of qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv headline row)", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.shared_bias.sqrt_K_eff", "group": "shared_bias", "value": 4.331613671908662, "display": "4.33", "estimand": "sqrt(K_eff)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "linear joint trend, window -6..+6, all v4 primary stacks, RE by country tau 0.33 (RULE_9159 E5)", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v4/pool/pooled_v4.csv", "locator": "row set=spec, version=scaled, kernel=linear, window=w66, subset=all; sqrt(K_eff)", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.weights_v3.GBR", "group": "weights", "value": 0.35293, "display": "35.3%", "estimand": "v3 final fixed-information weight share", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final, no INEP, linear w66", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, \"v3 final (fixed information, no INEP) weights\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.weights_v3.USA", "group": "weights", "value": 0.34841, "display": "34.8%", "estimand": "v3 final fixed-information weight share", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final, no INEP, linear w66", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, \"v3 final (fixed information, no INEP) weights\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.weights_v3.JPN", "group": "weights", "value": 0.05861, "display": "5.9%", "estimand": "v3 final fixed-information weight share", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final, no INEP, linear w66", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, \"v3 final (fixed information, no INEP) weights\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.weights_v3.CAN", "group": "weights", "value": 0.04607, "display": "4.6%", "estimand": "v3 final fixed-information weight share", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final, no INEP, linear w66", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, \"v3 final (fixed information, no INEP) weights\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.weights_v3.BRA", "group": "weights", "value": 0.01524, "display": "1.5%", "estimand": "v3 final fixed-information weight share", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final, no INEP, linear w66", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, \"v3 final (fixed information, no INEP) weights\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.weights_v3.GBR_plus_USA", "group": "weights", "value": 0.7013400000000001, "display": "70.1%", "estimand": "v3 UK + US share", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, v3 final weights GBR+USA", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.weights_v3.K_eff", "group": "weights", "value": 3.91, "display": "3.91", "estimand": "v3 final effective K", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v4.md", "locator": "## Weights, \"effective K\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v3.final.rr", "group": "history", "value": 0.929, "display": "0.929", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v3.final.inner_lo", "group": "history", "value": 0.891, "display": "0.891", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "sampling + kernel envelope 95%", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v3.final.inner_hi", "group": "history", "value": 1.028, "display": "1.028", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "sampling + kernel envelope 95%", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v3.final.outer_lo", "group": "history", "value": 0.564, "display": "0.564", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "outer (declared allowances)", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v3.final.outer_hi", "group": "history", "value": 1.599, "display": "1.599", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "outer (declared allowances)", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v3.final.de_lo", "group": "history", "value": 0.643, "display": "0.643", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "data-estimated (placebo) 95%", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v3.final.de_hi", "group": "history", "value": 1.406, "display": "1.406", "estimand": "v3 final (no INEP) individual RR, fixed-information weights", "ci_type": "data-estimated (placebo) 95%", "spec": "v3 final, linear w66, envelope bands", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Final v3 headline, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v1.rr", "group": "history", "value": 0.954, "display": "0.954", "estimand": "v1 individual-scale RR (fixed weights, extrapolated pretrend)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "v1 RULE_9150", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS.md", "locator": "## Headline, row \"B: individual-scale RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v1.de_lo", "group": "history", "value": 0.686, "display": "0.686", "estimand": "v1 RR", "ci_type": "data-estimated (placebo) 95%", "spec": "v1", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS.md", "locator": "## Headline, row B", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v1.de_hi", "group": "history", "value": 1.328, "display": "1.328", "estimand": "v1 RR", "ci_type": "data-estimated (placebo) 95%", "spec": "v1", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS.md", "locator": "## Headline, row B", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v2.rr", "group": "history", "value": 0.949, "display": "0.949", "estimand": "v2 individual RR", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "v2 RULE_9157", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v2.md", "locator": "## Headline v2, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v2.de_lo", "group": "history", "value": 0.633, "display": "0.633", "estimand": "v2 RR", "ci_type": "data-estimated (placebo) 95%", "spec": "v2", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v2.md", "locator": "## Headline v2, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v2.de_hi", "group": "history", "value": 1.425, "display": "1.425", "estimand": "v2 RR", "ci_type": "data-estimated (placebo) 95%", "spec": "v2", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v2.md", "locator": "## Headline v2, row \"Individual RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v1.n_stacks_rr", "group": "history", "value": 1490, "display": "1,490", "estimand": "v1 RR-panel stacks", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v1", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS.md", "locator": "## Headline, \"Panel B pools the ... stacks\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v1.n_countries", "group": "history", "value": 7, "display": "7", "estimand": "v1 countries", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v1", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS.md", "locator": "## Headline, \"Panel B pools\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v2.n_countries_rr", "group": "history", "value": 14, "display": "14", "estimand": "v2 RR-panel countries", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v2", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## v1 / v2 / v3 side by side, row \"Countries raw / RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v3.n_countries_rr", "group": "history", "value": 28, "display": "28", "estimand": "v3 RR-panel countries", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v3 final", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## v1 / v2 / v3 side by side, row \"Countries raw / RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v1.K_eff_rr", "group": "history", "value": 2.1, "display": "2.10", "estimand": "v1 RR effective K", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v1", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## v1 / v2 / v3 side by side, row \"Effective K raw / RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v2.K_eff_rr", "group": "history", "value": 3.01, "display": "3.01", "estimand": "v2 RR effective K", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "v2", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## v1 / v2 / v3 side by side, row \"Effective K raw / RR\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v3.most_precise.rr", "group": "history", "value": 0.919, "display": "0.919", "estimand": "v3 most precise valid spec (no mandate stacks)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "v3", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RULE_9159.md", "locator": "\"What was visible when this rule was written\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v3.most_precise.cal_lo", "group": "history", "value": 0.668, "display": "0.668", "estimand": "v3 most precise", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI", "spec": "v3", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RULE_9159.md", "locator": "\"What was visible\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.v3.most_precise.cal_hi", "group": "history", "value": 1.265, "display": "1.265", "estimand": "v3 most precise", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI", "spec": "v3", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RULE_9159.md", "locator": "\"What was visible\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.inep.remodel.rr", "group": "inep", "value": 1.34, "display": "1.340", "estimand": "Brazil INEP remodel RR (report-only; failed gates)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "RULE_9158b", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Brazil INEP remodel, Verdict paragraph", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "report-only" }, { "key": "v4.inep.remodel.inner_lo", "group": "inep", "value": 0.984, "display": "0.984", "estimand": "INEP remodel", "ci_type": "sampling (inner) 95%", "spec": "RULE_9158b", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Brazil INEP remodel, Verdict", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "report-only" }, { "key": "v4.inep.remodel.inner_hi", "group": "inep", "value": 1.826, "display": "1.826", "estimand": "INEP remodel", "ci_type": "sampling (inner) 95%", "spec": "RULE_9158b", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Brazil INEP remodel, Verdict", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "report-only" }, { "key": "v4.inep.remodel.planted125_rel_err_pct", "group": "inep", "value": -12.6, "display": "-12.6%", "estimand": "INEP remodel planted x1.25 recovery error", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "RULE_9158b", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Brazil INEP remodel, gate table row \"Injection r = 1.25\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "report-only" }, { "key": "v4.inep.contrast.rr", "group": "inep", "value": 1.425, "display": "1.425", "estimand": "INEP within-census contrast RR (report-only; failed gates)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "RULE_9158c", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Brazil INEP within-census contrast, Verdict", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "report-only" }, { "key": "v4.inep.remodel.future3_theta", "group": "inep", "value": 0.995, "display": "0.995", "estimand": "INEP remodel future+3 placebo theta (should be ~0)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "RULE_9158b", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/RESULTS_v3.md", "locator": "## Brazil INEP remodel, gate row \"Future+3 placebo\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "report-only" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.001501125563715, "display": "1.00", "estimand": "PCV-specific per-child RR (v3 method, not v4 RE)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "pcv_estimates.csv row label=\"PCV, all countries\"; rr", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger); Computed with the v3 pooling (fixed information weights), not the v4 RE estimator.", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.7057523725690191, "display": "0.71", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3 components)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "pcv_estimates.csv row label=\"PCV, all countries\"; lo_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.421184743388587, "display": "1.42", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3 components)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "pcv_estimates.csv row label=\"PCV, all countries\"; hi_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.n_countries", "group": "pcv", "value": 19, "display": "19", "estimand": "countries with PCV-led stacks", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "pcv_estimates.csv row label=\"PCV, all countries\"; n_countries", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.n_stacks", "group": "pcv", "value": 1482, "display": "1,482", "estimand": "PCV-led stacks", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "pcv_estimates.csv row label=\"PCV, all countries\"; n_stacks", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.K_eff", "group": "pcv", "value": 3.4574793777334216, "display": "3.46", "estimand": "effective K (v3 weights)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "pcv_estimates.csv row label=\"PCV, all countries\"; K_eff", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.AUS.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.3060404463320794, "display": "1.31", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, AUS", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, AUS\"; rr", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.AUS.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.6697975338182007, "display": "0.67", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, AUS", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, AUS\"; lo_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.AUS.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 2.546652624609807, "display": "2.55", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, AUS", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, AUS\"; hi_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.BRA.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.9277434863294591, "display": "0.93", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, BRA", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, BRA\"; rr", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.BRA.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.4375096604806278, "display": "0.44", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, BRA", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, BRA\"; lo_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.BRA.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.9672890776427783, "display": "1.97", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, BRA", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, BRA\"; hi_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.CHL.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.9574325540919122, "display": "0.96", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, CHL", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, CHL\"; rr", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.CHL.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.3397639991673438, "display": "0.34", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, CHL", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, CHL\"; lo_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.CHL.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 2.697981828214448, "display": "2.70", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, CHL", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, CHL\"; hi_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.COL.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.8620000071713195, "display": "0.86", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, COL", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, COL\"; rr", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.COL.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.41047244782743697, "display": "0.41", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, COL", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, COL\"; lo_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.COL.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.8102165353513118, "display": "1.81", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, COL", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, COL\"; hi_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.DNK.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.8962821643629741, "display": "0.90", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, DNK", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, DNK\"; rr", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.DNK.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.4477871088918348, "display": "0.45", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, DNK", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, DNK\"; lo_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.DNK.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.7939813411404475, "display": "1.79", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, DNK", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, DNK\"; hi_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.FIN.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.7929461233074167, "display": "0.79", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, FIN", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, FIN\"; rr", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.FIN.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.38657878125743134, "display": "0.39", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, FIN", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, FIN\"; lo_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.FIN.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.6264823237919863, "display": "1.63", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, FIN", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, FIN\"; hi_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.GBR.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.907102341556681, "display": "0.91", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, GBR", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, GBR\"; rr", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.GBR.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.4740333683235514, "display": "0.47", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, GBR", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, GBR\"; lo_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.GBR.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.7358159004030025, "display": "1.74", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, GBR", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, GBR\"; hi_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.GRC.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 1.3757513249075644, "display": "1.38", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, GRC", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, GRC\"; rr", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.GRC.de_lo", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.35177454914647394, "display": "0.35", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, GRC", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, GRC\"; lo_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.GRC.de_hi", "group": "pcv", "value": 5.380411154181676, "display": "5.38", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, GRC", "ci_type": "placebo-calibrated 95% CI (v3)", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, GRC\"; hi_de", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.pcv.country.HKG.rr", "group": "pcv", "value": 0.9277434863294591, "display": "0.93", "estimand": "PCV-specific RR, HKG", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "PCV-led stacks only; v3 pool() (fixed-information weights, no INEP), linear w66; written by pcv_estimates.py", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/pcv_estimates.csv", "locator": "row label=\"PCV, HKG\"; rr", "note": "version 4 value (base 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"cancer", "value": 1.557154154148725, "display": "1.56", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "9030 synthesis, A1_calibrated", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A1_calibrated.high", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.A1_calibrated.p_gt_125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.35107929661246096, "display": "0.351", "estimand": "posterior P(r > 1.25)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 A1_calibrated", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A1_calibrated.p_gt_1.25", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.A1_calibrated.excludes_125", "group": "cancer", "value": false, "display": "False", "estimand": "97.5% upper limit < 1.25", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 A1_calibrated", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A1_calibrated.excludes_1.25", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.A3_doubled.median", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.1560693599366734, "display": "1.16", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "posterior median", "spec": "9030 synthesis, A3_doubled", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A3_doubled.median", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.A3_doubled.low", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.6843226821115588, "display": "0.68", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "9030 synthesis, A3_doubled", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A3_doubled.low", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.A3_doubled.high", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.9469214159321269, "display": "1.95", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "9030 synthesis, A3_doubled", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A3_doubled.high", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.A3_doubled.p_gt_125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.38472875522972627, "display": "0.385", "estimand": "posterior P(r > 1.25)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 A3_doubled", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A3_doubled.p_gt_1.25", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.A3_doubled.excludes_125", "group": "cancer", "value": false, "display": "False", "estimand": "97.5% upper limit < 1.25", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 A3_doubled", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.A3_doubled.excludes_1.25", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.H_headline.median", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.1360143434016796, "display": "1.14", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "posterior median", "spec": "9030 synthesis, H_headline", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.H_headline.median", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.H_headline.low", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.6494477842731835, "display": "0.65", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "9030 synthesis, H_headline", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.H_headline.low", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.H_headline.high", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.8559563001860409, "display": "1.86", "estimand": "lymphoid leukaemia (C91), pooled individual-scale r", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "9030 synthesis, H_headline", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.H_headline.high", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.H_headline.p_gt_125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.33821848101490715, "display": "0.338", "estimand": "posterior P(r > 1.25)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 H_headline", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.H_headline.p_gt_1.25", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.H_headline.excludes_125", "group": "cancer", "value": false, "display": "False", "estimand": "97.5% upper limit < 1.25", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 H_headline", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/fits/9030/pooled.json", "locator": "pooled.C1.H_headline.excludes_1.25", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.C1.contexts", "group": "cancer", "value": 9, "display": "9", "estimand": "gated contexts pooled", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "9030 A1_headline", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Pooled, row \"C1 | A1_headline\"", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.power.C2.r1.0.p_exclude125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.43, "display": "0.43", "estimand": "P(exclude 1.25) at true r=1.0", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power, 400 replicates", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C2 1.0", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.power.C2.r1.0.p_detect", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.03, "display": "0.03", "estimand": "P(detect) at true r=1.0", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C2 1.0", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.power.C2.r1.5.p_exclude125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.0, "display": "0.00", "estimand": "P(exclude 1.25) at true r=1.5", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power, 400 replicates", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C2 1.5", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.power.C2.r1.5.p_detect", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.86, "display": "0.86", "estimand": "P(detect) at true r=1.5", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C2 1.5", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.power.C6.r1.0.p_exclude125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.29, "display": "0.29", "estimand": "P(exclude 1.25) at true r=1.0", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power, 400 replicates", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C6 1.0", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.power.C6.r1.0.p_detect", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.01, "display": "0.01", "estimand": "P(detect) at true r=1.0", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C6 1.0", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.power.C6.r1.5.p_exclude125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.0, "display": "0.00", "estimand": "P(exclude 1.25) at true r=1.5", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power, 400 replicates", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C6 1.5", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.power.C6.r1.5.p_detect", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.72, "display": "0.72", "estimand": "P(detect) at true r=1.5", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C6 1.5", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.power.C1.r1.0.p_exclude125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.24, "display": "0.24", "estimand": "P(exclude 1.25) at true r=1.0", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power, 400 replicates", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C1 1.0", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.power.C1.r1.0.p_detect", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.01, "display": "0.01", "estimand": "P(detect) at true r=1.0", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C1 1.0", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.power.C1.r1.5.p_exclude125", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.0, "display": "0.00", "estimand": "P(exclude 1.25) at true r=1.5", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power, 400 replicates", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C1 1.5", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.power.C1.r1.5.p_detect", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.62, "display": "0.62", "estimand": "P(detect) at true r=1.5", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Gaussian whole-pipeline power", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Power, row C1 1.5", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.summative.C2.step", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.01, "display": "1.010", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.summative.C2.lo", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.99, "display": "0.990", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "95% CI", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.summative.C2.hi", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.041, "display": "1.041", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "95% CI", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.summative.C2.contexts", "group": "cancer", "value": 13, "display": "13", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.summative.C2.series", "group": "cancer", "value": 86, "display": "86", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.summative.C6.step", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.01, "display": "1.010", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.summative.C6.lo", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.97, "display": "0.970", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "95% CI", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.summative.C6.hi", "group": "cancer", "value": 1.051, "display": "1.051", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "95% CI", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.summative.C6.contexts", "group": "cancer", "value": 10, "display": "10", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.summative.C6.series", "group": "cancer", "value": 36, "display": "36", "estimand": "summative event-study pooled step, observed scale (9157 v2 engine)", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "cancer summative chart", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## Summative chart", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.P2.CZE_D06.median", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.42, "display": "0.42", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "posterior median", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row CZE_D06", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.P2.CZE_D06.low", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.18, "display": "0.18", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row CZE_D06", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.P2.CZE_D06.high", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.83, "display": "0.83", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row CZE_D06", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.P2.JPN_3PREF_C53D06.median", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.56, "display": "0.56", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "posterior median", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row JPN_3PREF_C53D06", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.P2.JPN_3PREF_C53D06.low", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.33, "display": "0.33", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row JPN_3PREF_C53D06", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.P2.JPN_3PREF_C53D06.high", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.86, "display": "0.86", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row JPN_3PREF_C53D06", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.P2.JPN_NCR_C53D06.median", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.5, "display": "0.50", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "posterior median", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row JPN_NCR_C53D06", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.P2.JPN_NCR_C53D06.low", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.3, "display": "0.30", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row JPN_NCR_C53D06", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.cancer.P2.JPN_NCR_C53D06.high", "group": "cancer", "value": 0.77, "display": "0.77", "estimand": "HPV programme -> CIN3/cervical cancer r (positive control, recovered)", "ci_type": "95% CrI", "spec": "P2 (A4)", "source_file": "qa/claude_cancer_20261008/report/CANCER_REPORT.md", "locator": "## P2 table, row JPN_NCR_C53D06", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.bench.Madsen_et_al_2002_Denmark_537k_children.est", "group": "benchmarks", "value": 0.92, "display": "0.92", "estimand": "Madsen et al. 2002, Denmark (537k children)", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "published estimate / required OR", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/anecdote_vs_studies_values.csv", "locator": "row label=\"Madsen et al. 2002, Denmark (537k children)\"; estimate", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger); Literature values verified 2026-10-09 per anecdote_vs_studies.py header (Hviid 2019 HR 0.93, 0.85-1.02)", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.bench.Madsen_et_al_2002_Denmark_537k_children.lo", "group": "benchmarks", "value": 0.68, "display": "0.68", "estimand": "Madsen et al. 2002, Denmark (537k children)", "ci_type": "published 95% CI", "spec": "published", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/anecdote_vs_studies_values.csv", "locator": "row label=\"Madsen et al. 2002, Denmark (537k children)\"; lo", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.bench.Madsen_et_al_2002_Denmark_537k_children.hi", "group": "benchmarks", "value": 1.24, "display": "1.24", "estimand": "Madsen et al. 2002, Denmark (537k children)", "ci_type": "published 95% CI", "spec": "published", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/anecdote_vs_studies_values.csv", "locator": "row label=\"Madsen et al. 2002, Denmark (537k children)\"; hi", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger);", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.bench.Smeeth_et_al_2004_UK_case_control.est", "group": "benchmarks", "value": 0.86, "display": "0.86", "estimand": "Smeeth et al. 2004, UK case-control", "ci_type": "point", "spec": "published estimate / required OR", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/anecdote_vs_studies_values.csv", "locator": "row label=\"Smeeth et al. 2004, UK case-control\"; estimate", "note": "version 4 value (base ledger); Literature values verified 2026-10-09 per anecdote_vs_studies.py header (Hviid 2019 HR 0.93, 0.85-1.02)", "status": "final" }, { "key": "v4.bench.Smeeth_et_al_2004_UK_case_control.lo", "group": "benchmarks", "value": 0.68, "display": "0.68", "estimand": "Smeeth et al. 2004, UK case-control", "ci_type": "published 95% CI", "spec": "published", "source_file": "outputs/substack/anecdote_benchmark/anecdote_vs_studies_values.csv", "locator": "row label=\"Smeeth et al. 2004, UK case-control\"; lo", "note": "version 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"stageB", "value": "version 5e", "display": "version 5e", "estimand": "the version named in the post-A3 update branch of the templates", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Stage B merge (9321)", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v5c_v5e/v5c_numbers.json", "locator": "path of the numbers file", "note": "", "status": "final" }, { "key": "release.headline_version_long", "group": "stageB", "value": "v5e headline (RULE_9160 with amendments A2-A4 and A7)", "display": "v5e headline (RULE_9160 with amendments A2-A4 and A7)", "estimand": "long version name in the post-A3 update branch of the templates", "ci_type": "n/a", "spec": "Stage B merge (9321)", "source_file": "qa/claude_summative_20261008/work_v5c_v5e/v5c_numbers.json", "locator": "path of the numbers file", "note": "", "status": "final" } ] }