# 3309 Harm-direction register

Generated by `07_analysis_code/3309_jump_master_table.py` (deterministic). One row per harm-direction estimate from six sources, each with its placebo, pretrend, multiplicity and first-stage diagnostics and its source file and row (`3309_harm_direction_register.csv`). Nothing is re-estimated; every value is read from the named file.

Inclusion rules:

1. **3309 jump-program signals**: every signal in `3309_jump_master_table_harm_signals.csv` (stored interval above 1, or native log gap above 0 where no finite r exists), with its tier.
2. **Hierarchy context posteriors**: posterior 95% lower bound > 0.95 or P(r>1) >= 0.9 (the hierarchy-context rule), read from `project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json` (primary power 18; file time 2026-09-25 14:56:22, sha256 e103ab7ab14be768...); the p16 fit (`project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p16.json`, file time 2026-09-25 14:50:46) is quoted in notes. 1 of 16 contexts qualify: US_PCV. Another workflow is re-running the hierarchy; this register reflects the file as read.
3. **U.S.-alone core v2 diagnostics**: the U.S.-cells-only PCV posteriors (`us_alone_diagnostics_p18/p20.json`) under the same rule; p20 is used where the file has it (the documented ESS fallback). Qualifying: primary p18, infant_lt7 p20, any_1997_bound p20, rv_oct_window p18, no_shared_component p18, no_nuisance p18, no_break_screen p18.
4. **Global-integration block posteriors**: every blocks.csv block's unpooled posterior (reference kernel and prior) under the same rule (101 scanned).
5. **Chronic outcomes, project panels**: every non-placebo estimate in `3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv` whose interval lies above the null on its own scale; all eight nominally positive rows of the French CNAM stratified file (1469); the EURODIAB rows above 1, including any single-country deletion extreme (loo_min / loo_max) above 1; the Brazil SIH hospitalization row above 1 that 3212 counts but does not carry (read from `888_brazil_sih_claim_estimates.csv`, the file 3212 names); and every PCV7 youth-obesity step net of a whole-window linear trend whose interval lies above 1 (`3210_pcv7_intensity_obesity_trajectory.csv`; obesity is a falsification outcome). The upstream audit below counts, for every family file behind 3212, the rows above the null that the register does not carry.
6. **Chronic outcomes, published literature**: 3211 literature rows above 1 and the harm-direction published estimates quoted only in section 6 of `paper/journal_manuscript.md` (values checked against the text at run time).

`named_in` says whether section 6 of the journal manuscript quotes the value (with its line) or the family. Diagnostics columns quote the source; 'n/a' marks designs where the diagnostic does not apply.

## Counts

| category | rows |
|---|---|
| 3309 jump-program signal | 89 |
| hierarchy context posterior | 1 |
| U.S.-alone core v2 diagnostic | 7 |
| global-integration block posterior (unpooled) | 9 |
| chronic outcome: project panel estimate | 39 |
| chronic outcome: published literature | 9 |

Printed values checked against the register: 21 of 21 match at printed precision (U.S.-alone any dose / 1997 bound / infant, the US_PCV context, Brazil HepA census, French HepB neurologic, Andersson Asperger, Daley asthma, French intellectual disability, Hong Kong, Norway and SchoolVaxView rows; the EURODIAB leave-Italy-out estimate ('0.687 to 1.137') and the largest all-waves obesity step net of trend ('up to 1.035'), estimate only; and two printed counts, Brazil SIH 'one above one' and obesity '5 of 9 specifications').

## Upstream audit of the chronic panel families

For every family file behind a 3212 panel: rows whose interval lies above the null (non-placebo by the file's own timing or specification column; New Jersey on its beta scale, null 0), how many the register carries, and the placebo rows above the null. Rows not carried are the family's other nominal rows, which 3212 summarises in its family counts (quoted in each carried row's multiplicity column) and section 6 does not quote one by one; their 0-based row numbers are in the JSON (`register.chronic.upstream_audit`).

| panel | family file | non-placebo rows above the null | carried | not carried | placebo rows above the null | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 804_norway_claim_relevant_outcomes.csv | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |  |
| Brazil SIH | 888_brazil_sih_claim_estimates.csv | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |
| France CNAM (225) | 225_france_cnam_childhood_psych_results.csv | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |  |
| France CNAM (1469) | 1469_france_cnam_descriptive_fe_results.csv | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |  |
| ACS cognitive difficulty | 254_acs_cognitive_difficulty_results.csv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |  |
| ACS cognitive difficulty | 255_acs_cognitive_fake_schedule_grid.csv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |  |
| Hong Kong | 910_hong_kong_claim_outcome_family.csv | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |  |
| Hong Kong | 909_hong_kong_autism_estimates.csv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |  |
| IDEA multivariate (autism + 7 categories) | 2051_idea_multivariate_outcome_wild_inference.csv | not scanned |  |  |  | no interval columns (joint wild inference; t statistics and FWER p only) |
| SchoolVaxView category composition | 385_identification.csv | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |  |
| Peru | 896_peru_claim_outcome_estimates.csv | 37 | 3 | 34 | 11 | 34 rows not carried; listed in the JSON |
| New Jersey | 596_new_jersey_schedule_control_outcomes.csv | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |  |
| Taiwan | 921_taiwan_county_claim_estimates.csv | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 | not carried (0-based): row 6: 8.354 (2.149-32.482); row 60: 3.140 (1.273-7.750); row 102: 2.285 (1.153-4.528); row 104: 2.399 (1.055-5.454); row 107: 1.078 (1.010-1.150); row 147: 10.921 (1.205-98.946); row 150: 3.608 (1.237-10.519); row 152: 1.996 (1.196-3.331); row 168: 2.321 (1.270-4.242); row 258: 4.996 (1.148-21.753) |
| Brazil maternal Tdap | 2097_brazil_maternal_dtap_autism_results.csv | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | not carried (0-based): row 9: 1.019 (1.004-1.035) |

## 3309 jump-program signal

| register_id | item_id | value | scale | tier_3309 | placebo | multiplicity | first_stage | status_or_gate | src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | H001 INT_US_IDEA_CHILD_FLUxHIBDEF | 1.373 (1.085-1.737) | r (individual scale) | tier 1: final interval above the null | informative time-shift placebos of log theta (RMS 0.0445); permutation SD 0.107; future-3 log theta -0.102 (ok) / n 2, mean -0.043, SD 0.018 | 2 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted; row-level p 0.0093, BH q 0.354, Holm 0.354 | 46.4 pp; post-period mean joint-receipt share p_AB (pA 60.7, pB 69.8 %) | interaction: core pool / checker: status_checked=identified / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing ... | 3305_interactions_us.csv row 38 |
| R002 | H002 SC_SWE_MUNICIPALITY_LSS_RV_HEPB:RV_JONKOPING_2014 | 4.702 (1.128-9.029) | r (individual scale) | tier 1: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); p ratio 0.188; p /delta/ 0.125; pre-RMSPE 0.0243 vs donor median n/a | 6 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 4.7 pp; 3311 first stage (share exposed, x100) | sc: discarded / checker: invalid / SWE_HEPB_LSS_0_22: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | 3311_synthetic_controls_international.csv row 22 |
| R003 | H003 SC_SWE_PCV_EARLY_COUNTIES_2007_2008 | 0.734 (0.590-0.870) | log gap | tier 1: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); p ratio 0.443; p /delta/ 0.004; pre-RMSPE 0.5667 vs donor median 0.1390 | 1 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 11.0 pp; 3311 first stage (share exposed, x100) | sc: discarded / checker: invalid / SWE_PCV_corrected: pool (passes every D4 component) / SWE_F84_allages_corrected: report_only (D4 fails: one_likelihood_per_series) / SWE_HEPB_F84_allages: report_only (D4 fails: one_lik... | 3311_synthetic_controls_international.csv row 18 |
| R004 | H004 ENG_HEPB_6IN1_2017 | 1.081 (1.031-1.132) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 4 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1528; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.013; pass False; placebo r late2019=1.1925;late2020=0.8562 / n 8, mean 0.013, SD 0.163 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 91.8 pp; UTLA mean DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB 12-month coverage over cohorts 2018-2023 (HepB antigen 0 before) [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: nuisance column only / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst b1: age-5 (FA5) design with pre-window, backcast and timing placebos (confirmed by ch / ENG_RV_backfill: pool (passes every D4 component) / ENG_MMR... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 50 |
| R005 | H005 ENG_HEPB_6IN1_2017 | 1.076 (1.028-1.126) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 4 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1528; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.013; pass False; placebo r late2019=1.1925;late2020=0.8562 / n 8, mean 0.013, SD 0.163 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 91.8 pp; UTLA mean DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB 12-month coverage over cohorts 2018-2023 (HepB antigen 0 before) [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: nuisance column only / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst b1: age-5 (FA5) design with pre-window, backcast and timing placebos (confirmed by ch / ENG_RV_backfill: pool (passes every D4 component) / ENG_MMR... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 60 |
| R006 | H006 ENG_HEPB_6IN1_2017 | 1.113 (1.008-1.230) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 4 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1528; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.013; pass False; placebo r late2019=1.1925;late2020=0.8562 / n 8, mean 0.013, SD 0.163 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 91.8 pp; UTLA mean DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB 12-month coverage over cohorts 2018-2023 (HepB antigen 0 before) [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: nuisance column only / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst b1: age-5 (FA5) design with pre-window, backcast and timing placebos (confirmed by ch / ENG_RV_backfill: pool (passes every D4 component) / ENG_MMR... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 63 |
| R007 | H007 ENG_HEPB_6IN1_2017 | 1.072 (1.024-1.122) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 4 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1528; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.013; pass False; placebo r late2019=1.1925;late2020=0.8562 / n 8, mean 0.013, SD 0.163 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 91.8 pp; UTLA mean DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB 12-month coverage over cohorts 2018-2023 (HepB antigen 0 before) [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: nuisance column only / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst b1: age-5 (FA5) design with pre-window, backcast and timing placebos (confirmed by ch / ENG_RV_backfill: pool (passes every D4 component) / ENG_MMR... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 75 |
| R008 | H008 ENG_HEPB_6IN1_2017 | 1.108 (1.009-1.217) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 4 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1528; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.013; pass False; placebo r late2019=1.1925;late2020=0.8562 / n 8, mean 0.013, SD 0.163 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 91.8 pp; UTLA mean DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB 12-month coverage over cohorts 2018-2023 (HepB antigen 0 before) [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: nuisance column only / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst b1: age-5 (FA5) design with pre-window, backcast and timing placebos (confirmed by ch / ENG_RV_backfill: pool (passes every D4 component) / ENG_MMR... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 78 |
| R009 | H009 ENG_HEPB_6IN1_2017 | 1.069 (1.022-1.119) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 4 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1528; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.013; pass False; placebo r late2019=1.1925;late2020=0.8562 / n 8, mean 0.013, SD 0.163 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 91.8 pp; UTLA mean DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB 12-month coverage over cohorts 2018-2023 (HepB antigen 0 before) [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: nuisance column only / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst b1: age-5 (FA5) design with pre-window, backcast and timing placebos (confirmed by ch / ENG_RV_backfill: pool (passes every D4 component) / ENG_MMR... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 90 |
| R010 | H010 ENG_HEPB_6IN1_2017 | 1.191 (1.097-1.293) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 4 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1528; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.013; pass False; placebo r late2019=1.1925;late2020=0.8562 / n 8, mean 0.013, SD 0.163 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 91.8 pp; UTLA mean DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB 12-month coverage over cohorts 2018-2023 (HepB antigen 0 before) [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: nuisance column only / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst b1: age-5 (FA5) design with pre-window, backcast and timing placebos (confirmed by ch / ENG_RV_backfill: pool (passes every D4 component) / ENG_MMR... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 92 |
| R011 | H011 ENG_HEPB_6IN1_2017 | 1.214 (1.095-1.346) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 4 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1528; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.013; pass False; placebo r late2019=1.1925;late2020=0.8562 / n 8, mean 0.013, SD 0.163 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 91.8 pp; UTLA mean DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB 12-month coverage over cohorts 2018-2023 (HepB antigen 0 before) [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: nuisance column only / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst b1: age-5 (FA5) design with pre-window, backcast and timing placebos (confirmed by ch / ENG_RV_backfill: pool (passes every D4 component) / ENG_MMR... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 102 |
| R012 | H012 ENG_HEPB_6IN1_2017 | 1.137 (1.010-1.280) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 4 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1528; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.013; pass False; placebo r late2019=1.1925;late2020=0.8562 / n 8, mean 0.013, SD 0.163 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 91.8 pp; UTLA mean DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB 12-month coverage over cohorts 2018-2023 (HepB antigen 0 before) [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: nuisance column only / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst b1: age-5 (FA5) design with pre-window, backcast and timing placebos (confirmed by ch / ENG_RV_backfill: pool (passes every D4 component) / ENG_MMR... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 104 |
| R013 | H013 ENG_HEPB_6IN1_2017 | 1.137 (1.003-1.290) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 4 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1528; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.013; pass False; placebo r late2019=1.1925;late2020=0.8562 / n 8, mean 0.013, SD 0.163 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 91.8 pp; UTLA mean DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB 12-month coverage over cohorts 2018-2023 (HepB antigen 0 before) [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: nuisance column only / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst b1: age-5 (FA5) design with pre-window, backcast and timing placebos (confirmed by ch / ENG_RV_backfill: pool (passes every D4 component) / ENG_MMR... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 106 |
| R014 | H014 ENG_HEPB_6IN1_2017 | 1.191 (1.033-1.373) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 4 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1528; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.013; pass False; placebo r late2019=1.1925;late2020=0.8562 / n 8, mean 0.013, SD 0.163 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 91.8 pp; UTLA mean DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB 12-month coverage over cohorts 2018-2023 (HepB antigen 0 before) [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: nuisance column only / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst b1: age-5 (FA5) design with pre-window, backcast and timing placebos (confirmed by ch / ENG_RV_backfill: pool (passes every D4 component) / ENG_MMR... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 241 |
| R015 | H015 ENG_HEPB_6IN1_2017 | 1.214 (1.041-1.415) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 4 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1528; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.013; pass False; placebo r late2019=1.1925;late2020=0.8562 / n 8, mean 0.013, SD 0.163 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 91.8 pp; UTLA mean DTaP/IPV/Hib/HepB 12-month coverage over cohorts 2018-2023 (HepB antigen 0 before) [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: nuisance column only / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst b1: age-5 (FA5) design with pre-window, backcast and timing placebos (confirmed by ch / ENG_RV_backfill: pool (passes every D4 component) / ENG_MMR... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 246 |
| R016 | H016 FRA_MANDATE_EXTENSION_2018_AND_MENB_2022 | 1.174 (1.023-1.347) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 0 of 8 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1244; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 1821-1828 (primary spec) / n 8, mean -0.044, SD 0.125 | 1 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 18.8 pp; department mean MenC at 24 months, 2020 minus 2017 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: corrected / FRA_HEPB_PSY_ENF: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 313 |
| R017 | H017 INT_US_ADDM_CHILD_FLUxPCV13 | 4.443 (1.492-20.086) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | informative time-shift placebos of log theta (RMS n/a); permutation SD n/a; future-3 log theta n/a (n/a) / n 0, mean n/a, SD n/a | 1 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | not available (pair not estimated) | interaction: not pooled (ADDM panel) / checker: status_checked=not_identified / no block or context | 3305_interactions_us.csv row 160 |
| R018 | H018 INT_US_IDEA_CHILD_FLUxHIBDEF | 1.501 (1.110-2.030) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | informative time-shift placebos of log theta (RMS 0.0445); permutation SD 0.107; future-3 log theta -0.102 (ok) / n 2, mean -0.043, SD 0.018 | 2 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted; row-level p 0.0093, BH q 0.354, Holm 0.354 | 46.4 pp; post-period mean joint-receipt share p_AB (pA 60.7, pB 69.8 %) | interaction: core pool / checker: status_checked=identified / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing ... | 3305_interactions_us.csv row 38 |
| R019 | H019 INT_US_IDEA_HYBRID_MMR2xHIBDEF_cind | 1.687 (1.048-2.717) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | informative time-shift placebos of log theta (RMS 0.3516); permutation SD 0.193; future-3 log theta -0.307 (ok) / n 3, mean 0.135, SD 0.398 | 2 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted; row-level p 0.7488, BH q 0.965, Holm 1.000 | 64.5 pp; post-period mean joint-receipt share p_AB (pA 90.0, pB 68.4 %) | interaction: sensitivity pool / checker: status_checked=identified / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict m... | 3305_interactions_us.csv row 78 |
| R020 | H020 INT_US_IDEA_HYBRID_MMR2xHIBDEF_cind | 2.089 (1.068-4.086) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | informative time-shift placebos of log theta (RMS 0.3516); permutation SD 0.193; future-3 log theta -0.307 (ok) / n 3, mean 0.135, SD 0.398 | 2 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted; row-level p 0.7488, BH q 0.965, Holm 1.000 | 64.5 pp; post-period mean joint-receipt share p_AB (pA 90.0, pB 68.4 %) | interaction: sensitivity pool / checker: status_checked=identified / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict m... | 3305_interactions_us.csv row 78 |
| R021 | H021 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_BC | 3.792 (1.219-8.186) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.500; pre-RMSPE 0.1283 vs null median 0.1360 | 5 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 6.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.067, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identifie... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R022 | H022 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_BC | 8.024 (2.580-15.256) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.500; pre-RMSPE 0.1283 vs null median 0.1360 | 5 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 6.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.067, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identifie... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R023 | H023 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_BC | 8.847 (3.573-12.166) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.500; pre-RMSPE 0.1283 vs null median 0.1360 | 5 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 6.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.067, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identifie... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R024 | H024 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_BC | 9.534 (2.887-12.952) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.500; pre-RMSPE 0.1283 vs null median 0.1360 | 5 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 6.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.067, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identifie... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R025 | H025 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_BC | 9.105 (3.277-12.461) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.500; pre-RMSPE 0.1283 vs null median 0.1360 | 5 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 6.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.067, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identifie... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R026 | H026 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_PE | 5.811 (1.342-11.814) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 7.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.750; /delta/ p 0.250; pre-RMSPE 0.2397 vs null median 0.1281 | 8 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 10.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.107, pS 0.000) | sc: discarded / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R027 | H027 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_PE | 3.426 (1.763-6.367) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 7.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.750; /delta/ p 0.250; pre-RMSPE 0.2397 vs null median 0.1281 | 8 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 10.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.107, pS 0.000) | sc: discarded / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R028 | H028 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_PE | 2.292 (1.366-2.520) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 7.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.750; /delta/ p 0.250; pre-RMSPE 0.2397 vs null median 0.1281 | 8 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 10.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.107, pS 0.000) | sc: discarded / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R029 | H029 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_PE | 2.018 (1.235-2.257) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 7.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.750; /delta/ p 0.250; pre-RMSPE 0.2397 vs null median 0.1281 | 8 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 10.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.107, pS 0.000) | sc: discarded / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R030 | H030 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_PE | 2.247 (1.423-2.468) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 7.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.750; /delta/ p 0.250; pre-RMSPE 0.2397 vs null median 0.1281 | 8 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 10.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.107, pS 0.000) | sc: discarded / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R031 | H031 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_PE | 6.926 (1.883-10.413) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 7.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.750; /delta/ p 0.250; pre-RMSPE 0.2397 vs null median 0.1281 | 8 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 10.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.107, pS 0.000) | sc: discarded / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R032 | H032 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_PE | 4.750 (1.433-7.334) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 7.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.750; /delta/ p 0.250; pre-RMSPE 0.2397 vs null median 0.1281 | 8 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 10.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.107, pS 0.000) | sc: discarded / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R033 | H033 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__province_PE | 4.637 (1.852-7.200) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 7.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.750; /delta/ p 0.250; pre-RMSPE 0.2397 vs null median 0.1281 | 8 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 10.7 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.107, pS 0.000) | sc: discarded / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the pooled replacement block CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R034 | H034 SC_SWE_MUNICIPALITY_LSS_RV_HEPB:HEPB_NORRBOTTEN_2011 | 7.811 (1.099-14.709) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); p ratio 0.556; p /delta/ 0.889; pre-RMSPE 0.0276 vs donor median 0.0321 | 1 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 7.5 pp; 3311 first stage (share exposed, x100) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected / SWE_HEPB_LSS_0_22: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | 3311_synthetic_controls_international.json |
| R035 | H035 SC_SWE_MUNICIPALITY_LSS_RV_HEPB:RV_EARLY_STACKED_2014 | 8.055 (3.045-13.956) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); p ratio 0.047; p /delta/ 0.052; pre-RMSPE n/a vs donor median n/a | 1 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 4.8 pp; 3311 first stage (share exposed, x100) | sc: discarded / checker: invalid / SWE_HEPB_LSS_0_22: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | 3311_synthetic_controls_international.json |
| R036 | H036 SC_SWE_MUNICIPALITY_LSS_RV_HEPB:RV_JONKOPING_2014 | 4.651 (1.212-8.905) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); p ratio 0.188; p /delta/ 0.125; pre-RMSPE 0.0243 vs donor median n/a | 6 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 4.7 pp; 3311 first stage (share exposed, x100) | sc: discarded / checker: invalid / SWE_HEPB_LSS_0_22: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | 3311_synthetic_controls_international.json |
| R037 | H037 SC_SWE_MUNICIPALITY_LSS_RV_HEPB:RV_JONKOPING_2014 | 8.975 (1.275-22.887) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); p ratio 0.188; p /delta/ 0.125; pre-RMSPE 0.0243 vs donor median n/a | 6 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 4.7 pp; 3311 first stage (share exposed, x100) | sc: discarded / checker: invalid / SWE_HEPB_LSS_0_22: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | 3311_synthetic_controls_international.json |
| R038 | H038 SC_SWE_MUNICIPALITY_LSS_RV_HEPB:RV_JONKOPING_2014 | 5.589 (1.159-11.540) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); p ratio 0.188; p /delta/ 0.125; pre-RMSPE 0.0243 vs donor median n/a | 6 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 4.7 pp; 3311 first stage (share exposed, x100) | sc: discarded / checker: invalid / SWE_HEPB_LSS_0_22: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | 3311_synthetic_controls_international.json |
| R039 | H039 SC_SWE_MUNICIPALITY_LSS_RV_HEPB:RV_JONKOPING_2014 | 4.427 (1.119-8.418) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); p ratio 0.188; p /delta/ 0.125; pre-RMSPE 0.0243 vs donor median n/a | 6 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 4.7 pp; 3311 first stage (share exposed, x100) | sc: discarded / checker: invalid / SWE_HEPB_LSS_0_22: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | 3311_synthetic_controls_international.json |
| R040 | H040 SC_SWE_MUNICIPALITY_LSS_RV_HEPB:RV_JONKOPING_2014 | 9.663 (2.823-16.639) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); p ratio 0.188; p /delta/ 0.125; pre-RMSPE 0.0243 vs donor median n/a | 6 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 4.7 pp; 3311 first stage (share exposed, x100) | sc: discarded / checker: invalid / SWE_HEPB_LSS_0_22: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | 3311_synthetic_controls_international.json |
| R041 | H041 US_HEPA_1999_TARGETED_STATES | 1.113 (1.029-1.203) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 0 of 3 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.2467; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 0.792; pass True; placebo r 0.7709;0.8834;0.7295 / n 3, mean -0.233, SD 0.099 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 35.0 pp; approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, as the inventory defines it ('an approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, not a measured pre/post change'): CA state weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1 ... | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: D3 donut band (OSEP 6-11 bands + EDFacts single ages), joint HEPA30 + PCV / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaS... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_harm_signals.csv row 27 |
| R042 | H042 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.248 (1.097-1.420) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_harm_signals.csv row 1 |
| R043 | H043 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.257 (1.104-1.430) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_harm_signals.csv row 2 |
| R044 | H044 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.259 (1.095-1.448) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_harm_signals.csv row 3 |
| R045 | H045 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.267 (1.102-1.457) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_harm_signals.csv row 4 |
| R046 | H046 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.204 (1.005-1.442) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_harm_signals.csv row 8 |
| R047 | H047 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.232 (1.042-1.457) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_harm_signals.csv row 9 |
| R048 | H048 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.278 (1.034-1.580) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_harm_signals.csv row 10 |
| R049 | H049 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.231 (1.028-1.474) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_harm_signals.csv row 11 |
| R050 | H050 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.220 (1.032-1.442) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_harm_signals.csv row 16 |
| R051 | H051 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.469 (1.090-1.937) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_harm_signals.csv row 18 |
| R052 | H052 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.259 (1.064-1.490) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 144 |
| R053 | H053 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.231 (1.018-1.489) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 152 |
| R054 | H054 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.264 (1.111-1.438) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 211 |
| R055 | H055 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.237 (1.088-1.408) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 212 |
| R056 | H056 US_INFLUENZA_6_23MO_2004 | 1.248 (1.085-1.434) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | 1 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.1308; pass True; mean/SD computed here from 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_placebos.csv rows 596-601 (primary spec) / n 6, mean 0.016, SD 0.142 | 15 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 50.5 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMFLU>=1, proxy cohort 2007 minus cohort 2001 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (pla... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 215 |
| R057 | H057 US_PCV7_2000__NH_STATEWIDE | 1.631 (1.294-2.056) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | placebo log r +0.6154;+0.5981;+0.0387; RMS 0.4960; gate: CALIBRATED, placebo check passed / n 3, mean 0.417, SD 0.328 | 1 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 92.4 pp; NH state weighted NIS P_NUMPCV>=1 at proxy cohort 2001 (survey 2003); pre-period taken as 0 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: corrected (3301 estimator: analyst est_6 functions on the checker-corrected panel (chk_6: 2 age-10 cohorts recovered)) / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes ev... | 3301_jump_first10_specs.csv row 41 |
| R058 | H058 US_ROTAVIRUS_2006__ADDM | 3.000 (1.012-8.895) | r (individual scale) | tier 2: final interval above the null | no placebo summary on the master row (not estimable (checker: not_estimable_confirmed)); this record's interval type: placebo-calibrated | 1 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 56.1 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMROT>=1 at proxy cohort 2007 (survey 2009); cohort 2005 about 0 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: not_estimable_confirmed (3302 estimator: checker c05 attempt (Gaussian log-rate, site FE + trend; measured 2008 coverage / no block or context | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 511 |
| R059 | H059 CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020 | 1.788 (1.312-2.367) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 placebos (none admissible or not applicable) / n 0, mean n/a, SD n/a | 1 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | unmeasured (inventory placeholder 0; not a measured zero): no cohort-level transition coverage in project files (see coverage_source); 0 is a placeholder, not a zero jump | jump: hierarchy pooled context / checker: not_estimable_confirmed / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / QC_RV_ASD_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: repl... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 319 |
| R060 | H060 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__stack_cohort2012_ON_QC_BC | 5.419 (2.639-8.748) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncorrected in-space interval above 1; the pooled (in-space + in-time) interval of the same estimate includes 1 | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.750; pre-RMSPE n/a vs null median n/a | 4 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 8.1 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.081, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / QC_RV_ASD_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the ... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R061 | H061 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__stack_cohort2012_ON_QC_BC | 5.280 (3.826-6.872) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncorrected in-space interval above 1; the pooled (in-space + in-time) interval of the same estimate includes 1 | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.750; pre-RMSPE n/a vs null median n/a | 4 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 8.1 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.081, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / QC_RV_ASD_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the ... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R062 | H062 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__stack_cohort2012_ON_QC_BC | 5.449 (3.980-7.057) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncorrected in-space interval above 1; the pooled (in-space + in-time) interval of the same estimate includes 1 | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.750; pre-RMSPE n/a vs null median n/a | 4 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 8.1 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.081, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / QC_RV_ASD_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the ... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R063 | H063 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__stack_cohort2012_ON_QC_BC | 5.311 (3.855-6.907) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncorrected in-space interval above 1; the pooled (in-space + in-time) interval of the same estimate includes 1 | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.750; pre-RMSPE n/a vs null median n/a | 4 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 8.1 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.081, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / QC_RV_ASD_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: replaced (slot taken by the ... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R064 | H064 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__stack_early_adopters | 4.584 (1.981-7.694) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncorrected in-space interval above 1; the pooled (in-space + in-time) interval of the same estimate includes 1 | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.750; pre-RMSPE 0.1031 vs null median n/a | 4 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 8.1 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.081, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected (headline = demeaned SC) / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / QC_RV_ASD_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: rep... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R065 | H065 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__stack_early_adopters | 4.952 (3.484-6.564) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncorrected in-space interval above 1; the pooled (in-space + in-time) interval of the same estimate includes 1 | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.750; pre-RMSPE 0.1031 vs null median n/a | 4 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 8.1 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.081, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected (headline = demeaned SC) / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / QC_RV_ASD_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: rep... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R066 | H066 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__stack_early_adopters | 5.148 (3.663-6.780) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncorrected in-space interval above 1; the pooled (in-space + in-time) interval of the same estimate includes 1 | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.750; pre-RMSPE 0.1031 vs null median n/a | 4 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 8.1 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.081, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected (headline = demeaned SC) / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / QC_RV_ASD_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: rep... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R067 | H067 SC_CAN_ROTAVIRUS_PROVINCIAL_2010_2020__stack_early_adopters | 4.980 (3.510-6.595) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncorrected in-space interval above 1; the pooled (in-space + in-time) interval of the same estimate includes 1 | SC inference uses in-space placebos on the native delta scale (placebo log-r mean/SD not stored); K_null 23.0; RMSPE-rank p 0.250; /delta/ p 0.750; pre-RMSPE 0.1031 vs null median n/a | 4 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 8.1 pp; 3310 first stage (pT 0.081, pS 0.000) | sc: convergence only / checker: corrected (headline = demeaned SC) / CAN_noQC_RV_newly_identified_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / QC_RV_ASD_cnics: pool (passes every D4 component) / CAN_RV_newly_identified: rep... | 3310_synthetic_controls_us_canada.json |
| R068 | H068 US_HEPA_1999_TARGETED_STATES | 1.127 (1.042-1.217) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 of 3 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.2467; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 0.792; pass True; placebo r 0.7709;0.8834;0.7295 / n 3, mean -0.233, SD 0.099 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 35.0 pp; approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, as the inventory defines it ('an approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, not a measured pre/post change'): CA state weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1 ... | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: D3 donut band (OSEP 6-11 bands + EDFacts single ages), joint HEPA30 + PCV / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaS... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 445 |
| R069 | H069 US_HEPA_1999_TARGETED_STATES | 1.178 (1.053-1.315) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 of 3 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.2467; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 0.792; pass True; placebo r 0.7709;0.8834;0.7295 / n 3, mean -0.233, SD 0.099 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 35.0 pp; approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, as the inventory defines it ('an approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, not a measured pre/post change'): CA state weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1 ... | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: D3 donut band (OSEP 6-11 bands + EDFacts single ages), joint HEPA30 + PCV / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaS... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 447 |
| R070 | H070 US_HEPA_1999_TARGETED_STATES | 1.509 (1.230-1.825) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 of 3 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.2467; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 0.792; pass True; placebo r 0.7709;0.8834;0.7295 / n 3, mean -0.233, SD 0.099 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 35.0 pp; approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, as the inventory defines it ('an approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, not a measured pre/post change'): CA state weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1 ... | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: D3 donut band (OSEP 6-11 bands + EDFacts single ages), joint HEPA30 + PCV / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaS... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 449 |
| R071 | H071 US_HEPA_1999_TARGETED_STATES | 1.143 (1.039-1.255) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 of 3 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.2467; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 0.792; pass True; placebo r 0.7709;0.8834;0.7295 / n 3, mean -0.233, SD 0.099 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 35.0 pp; approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, as the inventory defines it ('an approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, not a measured pre/post change'): CA state weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1 ... | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: D3 donut band (OSEP 6-11 bands + EDFacts single ages), joint HEPA30 + PCV / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaS... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 451 |
| R072 | H072 US_HEPA_1999_TARGETED_STATES | 1.378 (1.116-1.704) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 of 3 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.2467; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 0.792; pass True; placebo r 0.7709;0.8834;0.7295 / n 3, mean -0.233, SD 0.099 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 35.0 pp; approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, as the inventory defines it ('an approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, not a measured pre/post change'): CA state weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1 ... | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: D3 donut band (OSEP 6-11 bands + EDFacts single ages), joint HEPA30 + PCV / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaS... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 453 |
| R073 | H073 US_HEPA_1999_TARGETED_STATES | 1.115 (1.050-1.182) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 of 3 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.2467; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 0.792; pass True; placebo r 0.7709;0.8834;0.7295 / n 3, mean -0.233, SD 0.099 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 35.0 pp; approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, as the inventory defines it ('an approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, not a measured pre/post change'): CA state weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1 ... | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: D3 donut band (OSEP 6-11 bands + EDFacts single ages), joint HEPA30 + PCV / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaS... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 455 |
| R074 | H074 US_HEPA_1999_TARGETED_STATES | 1.151 (1.056-1.254) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 of 3 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.2467; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 0.792; pass True; placebo r 0.7709;0.8834;0.7295 / n 3, mean -0.233, SD 0.099 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 35.0 pp; approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, as the inventory defines it ('an approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, not a measured pre/post change'): CA state weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1 ... | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: D3 donut band (OSEP 6-11 bands + EDFacts single ages), joint HEPA30 + PCV / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaS... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 457 |
| R075 | H075 US_HEPA_1999_TARGETED_STATES | 1.452 (1.235-1.690) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 of 3 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.2467; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 0.792; pass True; placebo r 0.7709;0.8834;0.7295 / n 3, mean -0.233, SD 0.099 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 35.0 pp; approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, as the inventory defines it ('an approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, not a measured pre/post change'): CA state weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1 ... | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: D3 donut band (OSEP 6-11 bands + EDFacts single ages), joint HEPA30 + PCV / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaS... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 459 |
| R076 | H076 US_HEPA_1999_TARGETED_STATES | 1.129 (1.050-1.213) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 of 3 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.2467; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 0.792; pass True; placebo r 0.7709;0.8834;0.7295 / n 3, mean -0.233, SD 0.099 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 35.0 pp; approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, as the inventory defines it ('an approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, not a measured pre/post change'): CA state weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1 ... | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: D3 donut band (OSEP 6-11 bands + EDFacts single ages), joint HEPA30 + PCV / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaS... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 461 |
| R077 | H077 US_HEPA_1999_TARGETED_STATES | 1.255 (1.057-1.490) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 of 3 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.2467; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 0.792; pass True; placebo r 0.7709;0.8834;0.7295 / n 3, mean -0.233, SD 0.099 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 35.0 pp; approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, as the inventory defines it ('an approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, not a measured pre/post change'): CA state weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1 ... | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: D3 donut band (OSEP 6-11 bands + EDFacts single ages), joint HEPA30 + PCV / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaS... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 463 |
| R078 | H078 US_HEPA_1999_TARGETED_STATES | 1.110 (1.023-1.203) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 of 3 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.2467; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 0.792; pass True; placebo r 0.7709;0.8834;0.7295 / n 3, mean -0.233, SD 0.099 | 12 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 35.0 pp; approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, as the inventory defines it ('an approximate CA-versus-non-targeted gap at cohort 2001, not a measured pre/post change'): CA state weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1 ... | jump: U.S. core v2 nuisance column / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: D3 donut band (OSEP 6-11 bands + EDFacts single ages), joint HEPA30 + PCV / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaS... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_harm_signals.csv row 6 |
| R079 | H079 US_HEPA_UNIVERSAL_2006 | 1.226 (1.042-1.443) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 of 6 placebo intervals exclude 1; RMS 0.4122; placebo-mean offset exp(mean) 1.324; pass True; placebo r 2.4273;1.3461;0.9371;1.0405;1.3347;1.2655 / n 6, mean 0.280, SD 0.331 | 1 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 46.6 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMHEA>=1, proxy cohort 2006 minus cohort 2004 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: confirmed (3302 estimator: analyst v2 engine2: union of ST_POOL/ST_LEXIS/ST_BAND, joint ROT+HEPA24, state affine NIS 200 / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes ... | 3302_jump_expansion_b1_b4_specs.csv row 419 |
| R080 | H080 US_MMR_DOSE2_1989_1990 | 1.942 (1.624-2.310) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 placebos (none admissible or not applicable) / n 0, mean n/a, SD n/a | 1 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | unmeasured (inventory placeholder 0; not a measured zero): no cohort-level transition coverage in project files (see coverage_source); 0 is a placeholder, not a zero jump | jump: excluded / checker: confirmed / US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RotaShield: pool (passes every D4 component) / US_RV2006: D4 pool but pool_ready False (checker verdict missing (plan item 4 preconditio... | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 224 |
| R081 | H081 US_PCV7_2000__ADDM | 1.415 (1.154-1.734) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 placebos (none admissible or not applicable) / n 0, mean n/a, SD n/a | 9 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 87.9 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMPCV>=1 at proxy cohort 2001 (survey 2003); cohort 1998 unmeasured, taken as 0 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: corrected / no block or context | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 51 |
| R082 | H082 US_PCV7_2000__ADDM | 1.241 (1.022-1.506) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 placebos (none admissible or not applicable) / n 0, mean n/a, SD n/a | 9 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 87.9 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMPCV>=1 at proxy cohort 2001 (survey 2003); cohort 1998 unmeasured, taken as 0 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: corrected / no block or context | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 57 |
| R083 | H083 US_PCV7_2000__ADDM | 1.357 (1.128-1.632) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 placebos (none admissible or not applicable) / n 0, mean n/a, SD n/a | 9 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 87.9 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMPCV>=1 at proxy cohort 2001 (survey 2003); cohort 1998 unmeasured, taken as 0 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: corrected / no block or context | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 63 |
| R084 | H084 US_PCV7_2000__ADDM | 1.408 (1.154-1.718) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 placebos (none admissible or not applicable) / n 0, mean n/a, SD n/a | 9 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 87.9 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMPCV>=1 at proxy cohort 2001 (survey 2003); cohort 1998 unmeasured, taken as 0 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: corrected / no block or context | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 69 |
| R085 | H085 US_PCV7_2000__ADDM | 1.373 (1.034-1.822) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 placebos (none admissible or not applicable) / n 0, mean n/a, SD n/a | 9 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 87.9 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMPCV>=1 at proxy cohort 2001 (survey 2003); cohort 1998 unmeasured, taken as 0 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: corrected / no block or context | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 71 |
| R086 | H086 US_PCV7_2000__ADDM | 1.394 (1.013-1.918) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 placebos (none admissible or not applicable) / n 0, mean n/a, SD n/a | 9 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 87.9 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMPCV>=1 at proxy cohort 2001 (survey 2003); cohort 1998 unmeasured, taken as 0 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: corrected / no block or context | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 72 |
| R087 | H087 US_PCV7_2000__ADDM | 1.347 (1.126-1.612) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 placebos (none admissible or not applicable) / n 0, mean n/a, SD n/a | 9 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 87.9 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMPCV>=1 at proxy cohort 2001 (survey 2003); cohort 1998 unmeasured, taken as 0 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: corrected / no block or context | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 81 |
| R088 | H088 US_PCV7_2000__ADDM | 1.299 (1.011-1.670) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 placebos (none admissible or not applicable) / n 0, mean n/a, SD n/a | 9 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 87.9 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMPCV>=1 at proxy cohort 2001 (survey 2003); cohort 1998 unmeasured, taken as 0 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: corrected / no block or context | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 83 |
| R089 | H089 US_PCV7_2000__ADDM | 1.336 (1.005-1.777) | r (individual scale) | tier 3: uncalibrated interval above 1 (no calibrated interval stored) | 0 placebos (none admissible or not applicable) / n 0, mean n/a, SD n/a | 9 listed signal(s) for this row; the family reports every spec, so specification searches are not multiplicity-adjusted | 87.9 pp; national weighted NIS P_NUMPCV>=1 at proxy cohort 2001 (survey 2003); cohort 1998 unmeasured, taken as 0 [3300 check: reproduced] | jump: excluded / checker: corrected / no block or context | 3303_jump_expansion_b5_b8_specs.csv row 84 |

## hierarchy context posterior

| register_id | item_id | value | scale | p_gt_1 | signal_class | placebo | pretrend | multiplicity | first_stage | status_or_gate | src | named_in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R090 | US_PCV | 1.165 (0.970-1.395) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.948 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | PASS: placebo-family future3 (199 identical cells) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 0.99 [0.68, 1.56]; linear_only 1.00 [0.69, 1.56]; spline_only 0.93 [0.64, 1.52]; rho_0_85 0.94 [0.66, 1.43] | NOT_TESTED: core context; U.S. panel has one pre-PCV cohort (see placebo family) | 1 of 16 context posteriors meet the rule; two-sided placebo family: strict PASS: all 3 fitted members x 4 kernels include 1 (future2, future3, future4); Bonferroni PASS: 12 intervals at level 0.9958 all include 1 | 3200 any dose (NIS P_NUMPCV >= 1), IDEA birth-window remap; cohort 1997 := 0 | US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component); tied True | project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json | task list (hierarchy context rule) |

## U.S.-alone core v2 diagnostic

| register_id | item_id | value | scale | p_gt_1 | signal_class | placebo | pretrend | multiplicity | first_stage | status_or_gate | src | named_in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R091 | US_PCV US-alone any_1997_bound p20 | 1.212 (1.004-1.468) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.977 | posterior interval above 1 | gate_decisions.json US_PCV (gate on the US_PCV[R_any] path): PASS: placebo-family future3 (199 identical cells) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 0.99 [0.68, 1.56]; linear_only 1.00 [0.69, 1.56]; spline_only 0.93... | NOT_TESTED: core context; U.S. panel has one pre-PCV cohort (see placebo family) | 7 of 7 U.S.-alone specifications meet the rule for US_PCV; two-sided family: strict PASS: all 3 fitted members x 4 kernels include 1 (future2, future3, future4); Bonferroni PASS: 12 intervals at level 0.9958 all include ... | 1997 cohort bounded at the NIS-2001 late-catch-up share (core v2); pooled ESS 1726.1; fallback rule (p18 minimum relevant core ESS < 50 -> p20): {"p18": {"rv_bias_0.35": 45.73564191231231}, "p20": {"rv_bias_0.35": 84.394... | diagnostic only: the U.S.-alone posterior is not the hierarchy estimate; US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) | project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/us_alone_diagnostics_p20.json | task list: 1997 bound (p20) |
| R092 | US_PCV US-alone infant_lt7 p20 | 1.456 (1.169-1.863) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 1.000 | posterior interval above 1 | gate_decisions.json US_PCV (gate on the US_PCV[R_any] path): PASS: placebo-family future3 (199 identical cells) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 0.99 [0.68, 1.56]; linear_only 1.00 [0.69, 1.56]; spline_only 0.93... | NOT_TESTED: core context; U.S. panel has one pre-PCV cohort (see placebo family) | 7 of 7 U.S.-alone specifications meet the rule for US_PCV; two-sided family: strict PASS: all 3 fitted members x 4 kernels include 1 (future2, future3, future4); Bonferroni PASS: 12 intervals at level 0.9958 all include ... | R_lt7 infant PCV path on core v2 (portfolio_v2/core_v2/sensitivity/infant_lt7); documented fallback TRIGGERED (core-v2 R_lt7 minimum relevant core ESS 22.7 at p20 < 50); pooled ESS 91.0; fallback rule (p18 minimum rele... | diagnostic only: the U.S.-alone posterior is not the hierarchy estimate; US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) | project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/us_alone_diagnostics_p20.json | task list: infant (R_lt7) p20 |
| R093 | US_PCV US-alone no_break_screen p18 | 1.184 (0.971-1.433) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.951 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | gate_decisions.json US_PCV (gate on the US_PCV[R_any] path): PASS: placebo-family future3 (199 identical cells) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 0.99 [0.68, 1.56]; linear_only 1.00 [0.69, 1.56]; spline_only 0.93... | NOT_TESTED: core context; U.S. panel has one pre-PCV cohort (see placebo family) | 7 of 7 U.S.-alone specifications meet the rule for US_PCV; two-sided family: strict PASS: all 3 fitted members x 4 kernels include 1 (future2, future3, future4); Bonferroni PASS: 12 intervals at level 0.9958 all include ... | EDFacts reporting-break series kept (no post-hoc screen); U.S. rotavirus 2006 untied as in the primary; pooled ESS 1711.8 | diagnostic only: the U.S.-alone posterior is not the hierarchy estimate; US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) | project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/us_alone_diagnostics_p18.json | same rule (other U.S.-alone specification) |
| R094 | US_PCV US-alone no_nuisance p18 | 1.151 (0.959-1.373) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.932 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | gate_decisions.json US_PCV (gate on the US_PCV[R_any] path): PASS: placebo-family future3 (199 identical cells) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 0.99 [0.68, 1.56]; linear_only 1.00 [0.69, 1.56]; spline_only 0.93... | NOT_TESTED: core context; U.S. panel has one pre-PCV cohort (see placebo family) | 7 of 7 U.S.-alone specifications meet the rule for US_PCV; two-sided family: strict PASS: all 3 fitted members x 4 kernels include 1 (future2, future3, future4); Bonferroni PASS: 12 intervals at level 0.9958 all include ... | No HepA / influenza / Hib nuisance columns; pooled ESS 1399.3 | diagnostic only: the U.S.-alone posterior is not the hierarchy estimate; US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) | project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/us_alone_diagnostics_p18.json | same rule (other U.S.-alone specification) |
| R095 | US_PCV US-alone no_shared_component p18 | 1.141 (0.950-1.356) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.917 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | gate_decisions.json US_PCV (gate on the US_PCV[R_any] path): PASS: placebo-family future3 (199 identical cells) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 0.99 [0.68, 1.56]; linear_only 1.00 [0.69, 1.56]; spline_only 0.93... | NOT_TESTED: core context; U.S. panel has one pre-PCV cohort (see placebo family) | 7 of 7 U.S.-alone specifications meet the rule for US_PCV; two-sided family: strict PASS: all 3 fitted members x 4 kernels include 1 (future2, future3, future4); Bonferroni PASS: 12 intervals at level 0.9958 all include ... | No state x cohort component shared across age bands; pooled ESS 620.1 | diagnostic only: the U.S.-alone posterior is not the hierarchy estimate; US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) | project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/us_alone_diagnostics_p18.json | same rule (other U.S.-alone specification) |
| R096 | US_PCV US-alone primary p18 | 1.165 (0.970-1.393) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.948 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | gate_decisions.json US_PCV (gate on the US_PCV[R_any] path): PASS: placebo-family future3 (199 identical cells) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 0.99 [0.68, 1.56]; linear_only 1.00 [0.69, 1.56]; spline_only 0.93... | NOT_TESTED: core context; U.S. panel has one pre-PCV cohort (see placebo family) | 7 of 7 U.S.-alone specifications meet the rule for US_PCV; two-sided family: strict PASS: all 3 fitted members x 4 kernels include 1 (future2, future3, future4); Bonferroni PASS: 12 intervals at level 0.9958 all include ... | Primary: core v2 (R_any PCV; U.S. rotavirus 2006 inside the joint U.S. likelihood but untied from the shared mean and the modern-rotavirus product (not pool-ready; lead decision 2026-09-25)), D3 calibrated bias SDs, D4-p... | diagnostic only: the U.S.-alone posterior is not the hierarchy estimate; US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) | project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/us_alone_diagnostics_p18.json | task list: any dose (p18 primary) |
| R097 | US_PCV US-alone rv_oct_window p18 | 1.164 (0.968-1.392) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.947 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | gate_decisions.json US_PCV (gate on the US_PCV[R_any] path): PASS: placebo-family future3 (199 identical cells) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 0.99 [0.68, 1.56]; linear_only 1.00 [0.69, 1.56]; spline_only 0.93... | NOT_TESTED: core context; U.S. panel has one pre-PCV cohort (see placebo family) | 7 of 7 U.S.-alone specifications meet the rule for US_PCV; two-sided family: strict PASS: all 3 fitted members x 4 kernels include 1 (future2, future3, future4); Bonferroni PASS: 12 intervals at level 0.9958 all include ... | Rotavirus path on the Oct-1 count-date birth window; pooled ESS 1340.8 | diagnostic only: the U.S.-alone posterior is not the hierarchy estimate; US_PCV: pool (passes every D4 component) | project_results/portfolio_v2/core_v2/us_alone_diagnostics_p18.json | same rule (other U.S.-alone specification) |

## global-integration block posterior (unpooled)

| register_id | item_id | value | scale | p_gt_1 | signal_class | placebo | pretrend | multiplicity | first_stage | status_or_gate | src | named_in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R098 | BRA_HEPA_census_autism | 2.166 (1.363-3.981) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 1.000 | posterior interval above 1 | future+3 (blocks.csv) 1.85 (1.23-3.09); gate: FAIL: future +3 excludes 1 under reference, linear_only, spline_only, rho_0_85: reference 1.85 [1.23, 3.09]; linear_only 1.85 [1.23, 3.09]; spline_only 1.85 [1.23, 3.09]; rho... | NOT_RUN: non-candidate (cannot pool by class/primary status); no stored pretrend / lead test for this block | one of 101 unpooled block posteriors scanned; no adjustment | block first stage not stored in the gate record (see the block's inputs.json) | BRA_HEPA_census_autism: report_only (D4 fails: not a primary or replacement block) | project_results/global_integration/americas/blocks/BRA_HEPA_census_autism/unpooled.json | section 4.4 (not section 6), paper/journal_manuscript.md line 139 (value quoted) |
| R099 | FRA_HEPB_NEU_AUT | 1.457 (1.170-1.809) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.999 | posterior interval above 1 | future+3 (blocks.csv) 1.37 (1.04-1.76); gate: FAIL: future +3 excludes 1 under reference, linear_only, spline_only: reference 1.37 [1.04, 1.76]; linear_only 1.36 [1.02, 1.73]; spline_only 1.41 [1.09, 1.82]; rho_0_85 1.31... | NOT_RUN: non-candidate (cannot pool by class/primary status); no stored pretrend / lead test for this block | one of 101 unpooled block posteriors scanned; no adjustment | block first stage not stored in the gate record (see the block's inputs.json) | FRA_HEPB_NEU_AUT: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | project_results/global_integration/central_west_europe/blocks/FRA_HEPB_NEU_AUT/unpooled.json | section 5.1 (not section 6), paper/journal_manuscript.md line 220 (value quoted) |
| R100 | FRA_HEPB_RESP | 1.147 (0.940-1.353) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.921 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | future+3 (blocks.csv) 1.58 (1.28-1.95); gate: FAIL: future +3 excludes 1 under reference, linear_only, spline_only, rho_0_85: reference 1.58 [1.28, 1.95]; linear_only 1.23 [1.03, 1.48]; spline_only 1.58 [1.28, 1.95]; rho... | NOT_RUN: non-candidate (cannot pool by class/primary status); no stored pretrend / lead test for this block | one of 101 unpooled block posteriors scanned; no adjustment | block first stage not stored in the gate record (see the block's inputs.json) | FRA_HEPB_RESP: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | project_results/global_integration/central_west_europe/blocks/FRA_HEPB_RESP/unpooled.json | section 5.1 (not section 6), paper/journal_manuscript.md line 220 (value quoted) |
| R101 | POL_PCV_SIO_autism_shareoffset | 1.204 (0.967-1.568) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.955 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | future+3 (blocks.csv) 1.07 (0.78-1.57); gate: PASS: future +3 (identical cells, central_west_europe_placebo) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 1.07 [0.78, 1.57]; linear_only 1.02 [0.76, 1.39]; spline_only 1.14 [0... | NOT_RUN: non-candidate (cannot pool by class/primary status); no stored pretrend / lead test for this block | one of 101 unpooled block posteriors scanned; no adjustment | block first stage not stored in the gate record (see the block's inputs.json) | POL_PCV_SIO_autism_shareoffset: report_only (D4 fails: not a primary or replacement block) | project_results/global_integration/central_west_europe/blocks/POL_PCV_SIO_autism_shareoffset/unpooled.json | not quoted in section 6 |
| R102 | SWE_HEPB_F84_allages | 1.319 (0.957-1.767) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.956 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | future+3 (blocks.csv) 1.15 (0.86-1.51); gate: PASS: future +3 (identical cells, nordic_baltic_nl_placebo) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 1.15 [0.86, 1.51]; linear_only 1.16 [0.89, 1.50]; spline_only 1.10 [0.77... | NOT_TESTED: no separate pretrend test; 2026-09-24 record: inherits SWE design | one of 101 unpooled block posteriors scanned; no adjustment | block first stage not stored in the gate record (see the block's inputs.json) | SWE_HEPB_F84_allages: report_only (D4 fails: one_likelihood_per_series) | project_results/global_integration/nordic_baltic_nl/blocks/SWE_HEPB_F84_allages/unpooled.json | not quoted in section 6 |
| R103 | SWE_PCV_G40 | 1.078 (0.959-1.305) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.893 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | future+3 (blocks.csv) 0.90 (0.80-1.01); gate: PASS: future +3 (identical cells, nordic_baltic_nl_placebo) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 0.90 [0.80, 1.01]; linear_only 0.90 [0.80, 1.01]; spline_only 0.91 [0.79... | NOT_RUN: non-candidate (cannot pool by class/primary status); no stored pretrend / lead test for this block | one of 101 unpooled block posteriors scanned; no adjustment | block first stage not stored in the gate record (see the block's inputs.json) | SWE_PCV_G40: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | project_results/global_integration/nordic_baltic_nl/blocks/SWE_PCV_G40/unpooled.json | not quoted in section 6 |
| R104 | SWE_PCV_K35 | 1.193 (0.995-1.411) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.972 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | future+3 (blocks.csv) 0.99 (0.79-1.18); gate: PASS: future +3 (identical cells, nordic_baltic_nl_placebo) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 0.99 [0.79, 1.18]; linear_only 1.01 [0.86, 1.19]; spline_only 0.92 [0.74... | NOT_RUN: non-candidate (cannot pool by class/primary status); no stored pretrend / lead test for this block | one of 101 unpooled block posteriors scanned; no adjustment | block first stage not stored in the gate record (see the block's inputs.json) | SWE_PCV_K35: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | project_results/global_integration/nordic_baltic_nl/blocks/SWE_PCV_K35/unpooled.json | not quoted in section 6 |
| R105 | TWN_HEPA_EI_devdelay | 1.126 (0.956-1.437) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.922 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | future+3 (blocks.csv) 0.99 (0.67-1.43); gate: PASS: future +3 (identical cells, asia_africa_oceania_placebo) includes 1 under all 4 kernels: reference 0.99 [0.67, 1.43]; linear_only 1.15 [0.95, 1.52]; spline_only 0.93 [0... | PASS: fake cutoff on 563 never-exposed cells (asia_africa_oceania/diagnostics_stage2a): reference 1.01 [0.73, 1.53]; linear_only 1.01 [0.73, 1.52]; spline_only 1.06 [0.69, 1.95]; rho_0_85 1.05 [0.69, 1.81] | one of 101 unpooled block posteriors scanned; no adjustment | block first stage not stored in the gate record (see the block's inputs.json) | TWN_HEPA_EI_devdelay: report_only (D4 fails: outcome (class other; separate posterior)) | project_results/global_integration/asia_africa_oceania/blocks/TWN_HEPA_EI_devdelay/unpooled.json | not quoted in section 6 |
| R106 | WAL_RV_pre_aln | 2.736 (0.563-7.079) | r (individual scale; posterior median and 95% CrI) | 0.908 | P(r>1) >= 0.9 or lower bound > 0.95; interval includes 1 | future+3 (blocks.csv) n/a; gate: NOT_RUN: non-candidate (cannot pool by class/primary status); no future+3 twin in uk_placebo | NOT_RUN: non-candidate (cannot pool by class/primary status); no stored pretrend / lead test for this block | one of 101 unpooled block posteriors scanned; no adjustment | block first stage not stored in the gate record (see the block's inputs.json) | WAL_RV_pre_aln: report_only (D4 fails: not a primary or replacement block) | project_results/global_integration/uk/blocks/WAL_RV_pre_aln/unpooled.json | not quoted in section 6 |

## chronic outcome: project panel estimate

| register_id | item_id | value | scale | p_gt_1 | signal_class | placebo | pretrend | multiplicity | first_stage | status_or_gate | src | named_in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R107 | Brazil SIH: row 67 (endpoint=ileus_obstruction_age1_4; lag_years=0; specification=primary raw coverage; unweighted) | 1.001 (1.000-1.001) | RR per 10 pp municipality coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | future-exposure row (lag -1) of the same series: 0.9997 (0.9991-1.0003), p 0.336 [888_brazil_sih_claim_estimates.csv data row 24]; the family's positive controls fail (primary specification, lag 0): meningococcal_infecti... | no pretrend test stored (the family reports future exposure, lags and specification variants) | BH q (all 176 SIH tests) 0.188; p 0.0011; rows = 176 (4 specifications x 44 (11 endpoints x 4 timings)) [3212 row 24]; BH_q_below_0.05 (all-176 family) = 0 (min q 0.188 over 176; min q 0.975 among primary rows) [3212 row... | design_audit: exploratory / not causal-gated: Municipality and year FE with population weights and municipality-clustered SE; future exposure, lags, cap-at-100, over-100 exclusion, unweighted, FDR, and power reported. Ho... | only the 'primary raw coverage; unweighted' fit (not the family's primary population-weighted specification) lies above 1; the other specifications of the same series and lag include 1 (primary raw coverage; population W... | 888_brazil_sih_claim_estimates.csv row 68 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 258 (family quoted: 'one nominal estimate above one') |
| R108 | Brazil maternal Tdap: row 19 (outcome=any_disability; sex=Total; timing=cohort_aligned; coverage_variant=cap100_mean_unweighted) | 1.019 (1.002-1.035) | RR per 10 pp coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | no placebo stored for this row | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q n/a (none in file); p 0.0244; future_exposure_RR_range = 1.000-1.002 (min p 0.657) [3212 row 136] | continuous coverage exposure (no policy first stage stored) | role: actual exposure; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 135 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 258 (value quoted) |
| R109 | EURODIAB deletion: results[4].leave_country_out leave Italy out | 1.137 (1.017-1.271) | incidence rate ratio for modelled post-introduction eligibility (introduction-date model; not an individual RR) |  | nominal interval above 1 (single-country deletion) | none stored (the introduction-date models have no placebo) | none (the introduction-date models lack a pretrend test; section 6) | the extreme of 17 single-country deletions of this specification (range 0.687 without Austria to 1.137 without Italy); full earlier-sample estimate 0.884 (0.558-1.401), p 0.578; no multiplicity adjustment | introduction dates (modelled eligibility), not measured uptake; earlier sample of 20 centres and 17 clusters | status exploratory; a single-country deletion in the earlier 21-centre sample; zero causal weight (section 6) | 3212_eurodiab_introduction_family.csv row 48 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 246 (value quoted: 'from 0.687 to 1.137') |
| R110 | EURODIAB: results[12] (no trends) / results[13] (centre-by-sex trends) | 1.276 (1.009-1.614) | ratio of age-specific rate ratios per unit modelled eligibility (not an individual RR) |  | nominal interval above 1 | none stored | none stored; with centre-by-sex trends 0.944 (0.712-1.251) (crosses one: True) | Holm p 1.000 (trend version 1.000); p 0.0424 | introduction dates (modelled eligibility), not measured uptake | status exploratory; causal pool weight 0.0 | 3212_eurodiab_introduction_family.csv row 19 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 246 (value quoted) |
| R111 | EURODIAB: results[4] (no trends) / results[5] (centre-by-sex trends) | 1.274 (1.013-1.602) | ratio of age-specific rate ratios per unit modelled eligibility (not an individual RR) |  | nominal interval above 1 | none stored | none stored; with centre-by-sex trends 0.934 (0.712-1.227) (crosses one: True) | Holm p 1.000 (trend version 1.000); p 0.0391 | introduction dates (modelled eligibility), not measured uptake | status exploratory; causal pool weight 0.0 | 3212_eurodiab_introduction_family.csv row 15 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 246 (value quoted) |
| R112 | France CNAM (1469): row 140 | 1.403 (1.029-1.913) | RR per 10 pp department coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future younger-cohort placebo RR 0.944, p 0.558; placebo rejects at 0.05: False; passes_future_placebo_only True | no pretrend test in the file; department linear-trend variants are reported as separate specifications | BH q (non-placebo 169) 0.1823; BH q (all 211) 0.1934; non_placebo_rows = 169 [3212 row 43]; nominal_p_below_0.05 = 37 (8 RR>1 (all intellectual disability ages 05-09; passes_future_placebo_only=True for 8), 29 RR<1) [321... | department coverage, within-department SD 1.05 pp; power for RR 1.10 per 10 pp 0.092; MDE 1.558; | causal_weight 0; guardrail: Descriptive low-tier sensitivity only; not a causal or individual vaccine-effect estimate. | 1469_france_cnam_descriptive_fe_results.csv row 141 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'nominally positive rows of the stratified French file are intellectual disability') |
| R113 | France CNAM (1469): row 141 | 1.645 (1.031-2.625) | RR per 10 pp department coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future younger-cohort placebo RR 0.944, p 0.558; placebo rejects at 0.05: False; passes_future_placebo_only True | no pretrend test in the file; department linear-trend variants are reported as separate specifications | BH q (non-placebo 169) 0.1823; BH q (all 211) 0.1934; non_placebo_rows = 169 [3212 row 43]; nominal_p_below_0.05 = 37 (8 RR>1 (all intellectual disability ages 05-09; passes_future_placebo_only=True for 8), 29 RR<1) [321... | department coverage, within-department SD 1.05 pp; power for RR 1.10 per 10 pp 0.069; MDE 1.950; | causal_weight 0; guardrail: Descriptive low-tier sensitivity only; not a causal or individual vaccine-effect estimate. | 1469_france_cnam_descriptive_fe_results.csv row 142 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'nominally positive rows of the stratified French file are intellectual disability') |
| R114 | France CNAM (1469): row 142 | 1.443 (1.121-1.857) | RR per 10 pp department coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future younger-cohort placebo RR 0.944, p 0.558; placebo rejects at 0.05: False; passes_future_placebo_only True | no pretrend test in the file; department linear-trend variants are reported as separate specifications | BH q (non-placebo 169) 0.0854; BH q (all 211) 0.0873; non_placebo_rows = 169 [3212 row 43]; nominal_p_below_0.05 = 37 (8 RR>1 (all intellectual disability ages 05-09; passes_future_placebo_only=True for 8), 29 RR<1) [321... | department coverage, within-department SD 0.77 pp; power for RR 1.10 per 10 pp 0.115; MDE 1.434; | causal_weight 0; guardrail: Descriptive low-tier sensitivity only; not a causal or individual vaccine-effect estimate. | 1469_france_cnam_descriptive_fe_results.csv row 143 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'nominally positive rows of the stratified French file are intellectual disability') |
| R115 | France CNAM (1469): row 152 | 1.193 (1.018-1.398) | RR per 10 pp department coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future younger-cohort placebo RR 1.244, p 0.189; placebo rejects at 0.05: False; passes_future_placebo_only True | no pretrend test in the file; department linear-trend variants are reported as separate specifications | BH q (non-placebo 169) 0.1679; BH q (all 211) 0.1788; non_placebo_rows = 169 [3212 row 43]; nominal_p_below_0.05 = 37 (8 RR>1 (all intellectual disability ages 05-09; passes_future_placebo_only=True for 8), 29 RR<1) [321... | department coverage, within-department SD 2.57 pp; power for RR 1.10 per 10 pp 0.218; MDE 1.254; | causal_weight 0; guardrail: Descriptive low-tier sensitivity only; not a causal or individual vaccine-effect estimate. | 1469_france_cnam_descriptive_fe_results.csv row 153 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'nominally positive rows of the stratified French file are intellectual disability') |
| R116 | France CNAM (1469): row 162 | 1.234 (1.058-1.440) | RR per 10 pp department coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future younger-cohort placebo RR 1.171, p 0.093; placebo rejects at 0.05: False; passes_future_placebo_only True | no pretrend test in the file; department linear-trend variants are reported as separate specifications | BH q (non-placebo 169) 0.0971; BH q (all 211) 0.1060; non_placebo_rows = 169 [3212 row 43]; nominal_p_below_0.05 = 37 (8 RR>1 (all intellectual disability ages 05-09; passes_future_placebo_only=True for 8), 29 RR<1) [321... | department coverage, within-department SD 4.14 pp; power for RR 1.10 per 10 pp 0.228; MDE 1.246; | causal_weight 0; guardrail: Descriptive low-tier sensitivity only; not a causal or individual vaccine-effect estimate. | 1469_france_cnam_descriptive_fe_results.csv row 163 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'nominally positive rows of the stratified French file are intellectual disability') |
| R117 | France CNAM (1469): row 176 | 1.347 (1.056-1.719) | RR per 10 pp department coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future younger-cohort placebo RR 0.949, p 0.594; placebo rejects at 0.05: False; passes_future_placebo_only True | no pretrend test in the file; department linear-trend variants are reported as separate specifications | BH q (non-placebo 169) 0.1321; BH q (all 211) 0.1443; non_placebo_rows = 169 [3212 row 43]; nominal_p_below_0.05 = 37 (8 RR>1 (all intellectual disability ages 05-09; passes_future_placebo_only=True for 8), 29 RR<1) [321... | department coverage, within-department SD 1.04 pp; power for RR 1.10 per 10 pp 0.120; MDE 1.416; | causal_weight 0; guardrail: Descriptive low-tier sensitivity only; not a causal or individual vaccine-effect estimate. | 1469_france_cnam_descriptive_fe_results.csv row 177 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (value quoted) |
| R118 | France CNAM (1469): row 178 | 1.352 (1.072-1.707) | RR per 10 pp department coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future younger-cohort placebo RR 0.949, p 0.594; placebo rejects at 0.05: False; passes_future_placebo_only True | no pretrend test in the file; department linear-trend variants are reported as separate specifications | BH q (non-placebo 169) 0.1237; BH q (all 211) 0.1362; non_placebo_rows = 169 [3212 row 43]; nominal_p_below_0.05 = 37 (8 RR>1 (all intellectual disability ages 05-09; passes_future_placebo_only=True for 8), 29 RR<1) [321... | department coverage, within-department SD 0.77 pp; power for RR 1.10 per 10 pp 0.126; MDE 1.395; | causal_weight 0; guardrail: Descriptive low-tier sensitivity only; not a causal or individual vaccine-effect estimate. | 1469_france_cnam_descriptive_fe_results.csv row 179 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'nominally positive rows of the stratified French file are intellectual disability') |
| R119 | France CNAM (1469): row 180 | 1.191 (1.019-1.392) | RR per 10 pp department coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future younger-cohort placebo RR 1.088, p 0.279; placebo rejects at 0.05: False; passes_future_placebo_only True | no pretrend test in the file; department linear-trend variants are reported as separate specifications | BH q (non-placebo 169) 0.1679; BH q (all 211) 0.1788; non_placebo_rows = 169 [3212 row 43]; nominal_p_below_0.05 = 37 (8 RR>1 (all intellectual disability ages 05-09; passes_future_placebo_only=True for 8), 29 RR<1) [321... | department coverage, within-department SD 4.42 pp; power for RR 1.10 per 10 pp 0.224; MDE 1.250; | causal_weight 0; guardrail: Descriptive low-tier sensitivity only; not a causal or individual vaccine-effect estimate. | 1469_france_cnam_descriptive_fe_results.csv row 181 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'nominally positive rows of the stratified French file are intellectual disability') |
| R120 | France CNAM (225): row 32 (outcome_id=intellectual_disability; vaccine=MMR1; specification=department_and_year_FE) | 1.205 (1.010-1.438) | RR per 10 pp mean department coverage, pooled ages 5-9 cohorts |  | nominal interval above 1 | future-cohort coverage placebo 1.017 (0.935-1.105), p 0.696 [225_france_cnam_childhood_psych_results.csv data row 36 (0-based 35)]; same file, MMR1 placebo for other psychiatric conditions 1.492 (1.128-1.974) [data row 5... | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q n/a (none in file); p 0.0386; rows = 60 (15 future-cohort placebo rows; 4 placebo rows with p<.05; no multiplicity-adjusted column in file) [3212 row 32] | continuous coverage exposure (no policy first stage stored) | role: actual exposure; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 38 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'pooled-cohort intellectual-disability MMR rows are also nominally positive') |
| R121 | France CNAM (225): row 36 (outcome_id=intellectual_disability; vaccine=MMR2; specification=department_and_year_FE) | 1.159 (1.023-1.313) | RR per 10 pp mean department coverage, pooled ages 5-9 cohorts |  | nominal interval above 1 | future-cohort coverage placebo 1.100 (0.964-1.256), p 0.158 [225_france_cnam_childhood_psych_results.csv data row 40 (0-based 39)]; same file, MMR1 placebo for other psychiatric conditions 1.492 (1.128-1.974) [data row 5... | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q n/a (none in file); p 0.0206; rows = 60 (15 future-cohort placebo rows; 4 placebo rows with p<.05; no multiplicity-adjusted column in file) [3212 row 32] | continuous coverage exposure (no policy first stage stored) | role: actual exposure; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 40 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'pooled-cohort intellectual-disability MMR rows are also nominally positive') |
| R122 | France CNAM (225): row 38 (outcome_id=intellectual_disability; vaccine=MMR2; specification=first_difference_plus_year_FE) | 1.100 (1.006-1.202) | RR per 10 pp mean department coverage, pooled ages 5-9 cohorts |  | nominal interval above 1 | future-cohort coverage placebo 1.100 (0.964-1.256), p 0.158 [225_france_cnam_childhood_psych_results.csv data row 40 (0-based 39)]; same file, MMR1 placebo for other psychiatric conditions 1.492 (1.128-1.974) [data row 5... | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q n/a (none in file); p 0.0358; rows = 60 (15 future-cohort placebo rows; 4 placebo rows with p<.05; no multiplicity-adjusted column in file) [3212 row 32] | continuous coverage exposure (no policy first stage stored) | role: actual exposure, first difference; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 41 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'pooled-cohort intellectual-disability MMR rows are also nominally positive') |
| R123 | Hong Kong: row 3 (outcome=intellectual_disability; curve=quadratic; timing=cohort-aligned) | 1.033 (1.009-1.057) | RR per 10 pp PCV coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | no category-specific placebo; autism-screen placebos: future exposure (+2 cohort years) 0.9901 (0.9806-0.9997), p 0.043 [3212 row 82] | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.0193 (BH across 9); p 0.0064; BH_q_below_0.05 = 3 (of 9 named SEN categories; others cross one: adhd, autism, hearing_impairment, specific_learning_difficulty, speech_language_impairment, visual_impairment) [3212... | design_audit (exposure first stage): qualified: PCV uses official total survey coverage 94.8, 96.2, 96.1, 96.4% for birth cohorts 2009-2012; pre-2009 is encoded zero for routine-program exposure and post-2012 held at 96.... | role: BH survivor; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 79 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 258 (value quoted) |
| R124 | Hong Kong: row 5 (outcome=physical_disability; curve=quadratic; timing=cohort-aligned) | 1.049 (1.016-1.084) | RR per 10 pp PCV coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | no category-specific placebo; autism-screen placebos: future exposure (+2 cohort years) 0.9901 (0.9806-0.9997), p 0.043 [3212 row 82] | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.0162 (BH across 9); p 0.0036; BH_q_below_0.05 = 3 (of 9 named SEN categories; others cross one: adhd, autism, hearing_impairment, specific_learning_difficulty, speech_language_impairment, visual_impairment) [3212... | design_audit (exposure first stage): qualified: PCV uses official total survey coverage 94.8, 96.2, 96.1, 96.4% for birth cohorts 2009-2012; pre-2009 is encoded zero for routine-program exposure and post-2012 held at 96.... | role: BH survivor; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 80 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 258 (value quoted) |
| R125 | New Jersey: row 11 (outcome_category=multiple_disabilities; outcome_scale=rate_per_10000) | 9.217 (0.137-18.297) | change in rate per 10,000 per 10 pp schedule compliance |  | nominal interval above 0 (additive rate scale) | no placebo stored for this row | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.1715 (BH within family and scale); p 0.0466; BH_q_below_0.05 = 1 (of 24 (12 categories x 2 scales); nominal p<.05: 5) [3212 row 116] | design_audit: descriptive/quasi-causal diagnostic: Current school schedule compliance is not cohort-specific childhood exposure. FE remove time-invariant county factors and common years but not county-varying confounding... | role: IDEA category; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 122 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 258 (family quoted: 'New Jersey's school-compliance panel has two nominally positive coefficients') |
| R126 | New Jersey: row 13 (outcome_category=orthopedic_impairment; outcome_scale=rate_per_10000) | 2.821 (0.383-5.259) | change in rate per 10,000 per 10 pp schedule compliance |  | nominal interval above 0 (additive rate scale) | no placebo stored for this row | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.1402 (BH within family and scale); p 0.0234; BH_q_below_0.05 = 1 (of 24 (12 categories x 2 scales); nominal p<.05: 5) [3212 row 116] | design_audit: descriptive/quasi-causal diagnostic: Current school schedule compliance is not cohort-specific childhood exposure. FE remove time-invariant county factors and common years but not county-varying confounding... | role: IDEA category; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 121 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 258 (family quoted: 'New Jersey's school-compliance panel has two nominally positive coefficients') |
| R127 | Norway: row 15 (design=child schedule; vaccine=MESLINGER; condition=L70_L71ogL82_L99; timing=lag 2) | 1.093 (1.006-1.188) | RR per 10 pp municipality coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future t+1 placebo 1.024 (0.926-1.133), p 0.642 [3212 row 7] | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.3944 (BH across 88); p 0.0359; rows = 88 (22 condition-design pairs x 4 timings (future t+1 placebo, contemporaneous, lag 1, lag 2)) [3212 row 1]; min_BH_q = 0.3943597758500851 (BH across all 88) [3212 row 2]; BH... | design_audit: exploratory only: Municipality and year FE remove stable place differences and common shocks, but this is continuous uptake variation without a policy event or credible instrument. [3212 row 23] | role: nominal p<.05; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 6 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'six of eight nominal estimates are harmful-direction') |
| R128 | Norway: row 17 (design=child schedule; vaccine=MESLINGER; condition=P01_P04ogP25ogP28_P29; timing=contemporaneous) | 1.131 (1.018-1.255) | RR per 10 pp municipality coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future t+1 placebo 1.010 (0.865-1.181), p 0.896 [3212 row 9] | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.3944 (BH across 88); p 0.0214; rows = 88 (22 condition-design pairs x 4 timings (future t+1 placebo, contemporaneous, lag 1, lag 2)) [3212 row 1]; min_BH_q = 0.3943597758500851 (BH across all 88) [3212 row 2]; BH... | design_audit: exploratory only: Municipality and year FE remove stable place differences and common shocks, but this is continuous uptake variation without a policy event or credible instrument. [3212 row 23] | role: nominal p<.05; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 8 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (value quoted) |
| R129 | Norway: row 22 (design=child schedule; vaccine=MESLINGER; condition=P01_P29; timing=lag 1) | 1.093 (1.013-1.179) | RR per 10 pp municipality coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future t+1 placebo 1.001 (0.934-1.073), p 0.977 [3212 row 11] | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.3944 (BH across 88); p 0.0217; rows = 88 (22 condition-design pairs x 4 timings (future t+1 placebo, contemporaneous, lag 1, lag 2)) [3212 row 1]; min_BH_q = 0.3943597758500851 (BH across all 88) [3212 row 2]; BH... | design_audit: exploratory only: Municipality and year FE remove stable place differences and common shocks, but this is continuous uptake variation without a policy event or credible instrument. [3212 row 23] | role: nominal p<.05; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 10 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'six of eight nominal estimates are harmful-direction') |
| R130 | Norway: row 26 (design=child schedule; vaccine=MESLINGER; condition=P01_P29ogP70_P99; timing=lag 1) | 1.082 (1.006-1.163) | RR per 10 pp municipality coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future t+1 placebo 1.015 (0.956-1.077), p 0.633 [3212 row 13] | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.3944 (BH across 88); p 0.0348; rows = 88 (22 condition-design pairs x 4 timings (future t+1 placebo, contemporaneous, lag 1, lag 2)) [3212 row 1]; min_BH_q = 0.3943597758500851 (BH across all 88) [3212 row 2]; BH... | design_audit: exploratory only: Municipality and year FE remove stable place differences and common shocks, but this is continuous uptake variation without a policy event or credible instrument. [3212 row 23] | role: nominal p<.05; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 12 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'six of eight nominal estimates are harmful-direction') |
| R131 | Norway: row 50 (design=adolescent girls HPV; vaccine=HPV_K; condition=L01_L29; timing=lag 1) | 1.007 (1.001-1.014) | RR per 10 pp municipality coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future t+1 placebo 0.994 (0.981-1.008), p 0.432 [3212 row 15] | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.3944 (BH across 88); p 0.0336; rows = 88 (22 condition-design pairs x 4 timings (future t+1 placebo, contemporaneous, lag 1, lag 2)) [3212 row 1]; min_BH_q = 0.3943597758500851 (BH across all 88) [3212 row 2]; BH... | design_audit: exploratory only: Municipality and year FE remove stable place differences and common shocks, but this is continuous uptake variation without a policy event or credible instrument. [3212 row 23] | role: nominal p<.05; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 14 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'six of eight nominal estimates are harmful-direction') |
| R132 | Norway: row 54 (design=adolescent girls HPV; vaccine=HPV_K; condition=L01_L29ogL70_L71ogL82_L99; timing=lag 1) | 1.007 (1.002-1.013) | RR per 10 pp municipality coverage |  | nominal interval above 1 | matched future t+1 placebo 0.999 (0.986-1.012), p 0.865 [3212 row 17] | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.3944 (BH across 88); p 0.0113; rows = 88 (22 condition-design pairs x 4 timings (future t+1 placebo, contemporaneous, lag 1, lag 2)) [3212 row 1]; min_BH_q = 0.3943597758500851 (BH across all 88) [3212 row 2]; BH... | design_audit: exploratory only: Municipality and year FE remove stable place differences and common shocks, but this is continuous uptake variation without a policy event or credible instrument. [3212 row 23] | role: nominal p<.05; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 16 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 256 (family quoted: 'six of eight nominal estimates are harmful-direction') |
| R133 | PCV7 obesity (3210): flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 all_waves shift +0 published_ci_proxy | 1.031 (1.006-1.057) | RR per SD of the flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 index (8.91 pp), ecological (not an individual RR) |  | nominal interval above 1 (falsification outcome) | 1993 placebo step 0.9483 (0.9309-0.9660), p 5.8e-07 (rejects); net of the linear trend 0.9895 (0.9630-1.0167), p 0.437 | pretrend 0.9928 (0.9904-0.9953) per SD per cohort-year, p 4.4e-07 (rejects; pre-2000 cohorts 1985-1999) | 5 of 9 specifications of this index and survey window (3 cohort shifts x 3 weightings) have intervals above 1; 9 of 36 step-net-of-trend fits in 3210; p 0.0158; no multiplicity adjustment | state PCV7 rollout intensity index flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 (continuous ecological exposure; one SD = 8.91 pp of early uptake) | obesity is treated as a falsification outcome, assuming PCV7 does not affect obesity (section 6); pretrend and 1993 placebo reject; zero causal weight | 3210_pcv7_intensity_obesity_trajectory.csv row 457 | section 4.7 (not section 6), paper/journal_manuscript.md line 179 (family quoted: 'Obesity supplies the falsification') |
| R134 | PCV7 obesity (3210): flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 all_waves shift +0 sample_size | 1.033 (1.006-1.060) | RR per SD of the flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 index (8.91 pp), ecological (not an individual RR) |  | nominal interval above 1 (falsification outcome) | 1993 placebo step 0.9527 (0.9360-0.9698), p 1.6e-06 (rejects); net of the linear trend 0.9928 (0.9658-1.0205), p 0.598 | pretrend 0.9934 (0.9908-0.9960) per SD per cohort-year, p 5.5e-06 (rejects; pre-2000 cohorts 1985-1999) | 5 of 9 specifications of this index and survey window (3 cohort shifts x 3 weightings) have intervals above 1; 9 of 36 step-net-of-trend fits in 3210; p 0.0178; no multiplicity adjustment | state PCV7 rollout intensity index flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 (continuous ecological exposure; one SD = 8.91 pp of early uptake) | obesity is treated as a falsification outcome, assuming PCV7 does not affect obesity (section 6); pretrend and 1993 placebo reject; zero causal weight | 3210_pcv7_intensity_obesity_trajectory.csv row 416 | section 4.7 (not section 6), paper/journal_manuscript.md line 179 (family quoted: 'Obesity supplies the falsification') |
| R135 | PCV7 obesity (3210): flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 all_waves shift -1 equal_cell | 1.033 (1.011-1.055) | RR per SD of the flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 index (8.91 pp), ecological (not an individual RR) |  | nominal interval above 1 (falsification outcome) | 1993 placebo step 0.9565 (0.9376-0.9758), p 4.7e-05 (rejects); net of the linear trend 0.9926 (0.9568-1.0298), p 0.687 | pretrend 0.9940 (0.9920-0.9960) per SD per cohort-year, p 2.3e-07 (rejects; pre-2000 cohorts 1985-1999) | 5 of 9 specifications of this index and survey window (3 cohort shifts x 3 weightings) have intervals above 1; 9 of 36 step-net-of-trend fits in 3210; p 0.0034; no multiplicity adjustment | state PCV7 rollout intensity index flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 (continuous ecological exposure; one SD = 8.91 pp of early uptake) | obesity is treated as a falsification outcome, assuming PCV7 does not affect obesity (section 6); pretrend and 1993 placebo reject; zero causal weight | 3210_pcv7_intensity_obesity_trajectory.csv row 252 | section 4.7 (not section 6), paper/journal_manuscript.md line 179 (family quoted: 'Obesity supplies the falsification') |
| R136 | PCV7 obesity (3210): flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 all_waves shift -1 published_ci_proxy | 1.033 (1.004-1.063) | RR per SD of the flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 index (8.91 pp), ecological (not an individual RR) |  | nominal interval above 1 (falsification outcome) | 1993 placebo step 0.9518 (0.9324-0.9717), p 1.6e-05 (rejects); net of the linear trend 0.9924 (0.9594-1.0265), p 0.652 | pretrend 0.9933 (0.9911-0.9955) per SD per cohort-year, p 1.8e-07 (rejects; pre-2000 cohorts 1985-1999) | 5 of 9 specifications of this index and survey window (3 cohort shifts x 3 weightings) have intervals above 1; 9 of 36 step-net-of-trend fits in 3210; p 0.0265; no multiplicity adjustment | state PCV7 rollout intensity index flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 (continuous ecological exposure; one SD = 8.91 pp of early uptake) | obesity is treated as a falsification outcome, assuming PCV7 does not affect obesity (section 6); pretrend and 1993 placebo reject; zero causal weight | 3210_pcv7_intensity_obesity_trajectory.csv row 334 | section 4.7 (not section 6), paper/journal_manuscript.md line 179 (family quoted: 'Obesity supplies the falsification') |
| R137 | PCV7 obesity (3210): flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 all_waves shift -1 sample_size | 1.035 (1.010-1.061) | RR per SD of the flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 index (8.91 pp), ecological (not an individual RR) |  | nominal interval above 1 (falsification outcome) | 1993 placebo step 0.9576 (0.9388-0.9769), p 6.6e-05 (rejects); net of the linear trend 0.9978 (0.9638-1.0329), p 0.897 | pretrend 0.9939 (0.9919-0.9959) per SD per cohort-year, p 2.1e-07 (rejects; pre-2000 cohorts 1985-1999) | 5 of 9 specifications of this index and survey window (3 cohort shifts x 3 weightings) have intervals above 1; 9 of 36 step-net-of-trend fits in 3210; p 0.0068; no multiplicity adjustment | state PCV7 rollout intensity index flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 (continuous ecological exposure; one SD = 8.91 pp of early uptake) | obesity is treated as a falsification outcome, assuming PCV7 does not affect obesity (section 6); pretrend and 1993 placebo reject; zero causal weight | 3210_pcv7_intensity_obesity_trajectory.csv row 293 | section 4.7 (not section 6), paper/journal_manuscript.md line 179 (family quoted: 'Obesity supplies the falsification') |
| R138 | PCV7 obesity (3210): flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 through_2019 shift +0 published_ci_proxy | 1.030 (1.003-1.057) | RR per SD of the flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 index (8.91 pp), ecological (not an individual RR) |  | nominal interval above 1 (falsification outcome) | 1993 placebo step 0.9483 (0.9309-0.9660), p 5.8e-07 (rejects); net of the linear trend 0.9895 (0.9630-1.0167), p 0.437 | pretrend 0.9928 (0.9904-0.9953) per SD per cohort-year, p 4.4e-07 (rejects; pre-2000 cohorts 1985-1999) | 4 of 9 specifications of this index and survey window (3 cohort shifts x 3 weightings) have intervals above 1; 9 of 36 step-net-of-trend fits in 3210; p 0.0325; no multiplicity adjustment | state PCV7 rollout intensity index flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 (continuous ecological exposure; one SD = 8.91 pp of early uptake) | obesity is treated as a falsification outcome, assuming PCV7 does not affect obesity (section 6); pretrend and 1993 placebo reject; zero causal weight | 3210_pcv7_intensity_obesity_trajectory.csv row 1195 | not quoted in section 6 (survey window through_2019; the section quotes neither these fits nor 'Obesity supplies the falsification') |
| R139 | PCV7 obesity (3210): flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 through_2019 shift +0 sample_size | 1.031 (1.002-1.061) | RR per SD of the flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 index (8.91 pp), ecological (not an individual RR) |  | nominal interval above 1 (falsification outcome) | 1993 placebo step 0.9527 (0.9360-0.9698), p 1.6e-06 (rejects); net of the linear trend 0.9928 (0.9658-1.0205), p 0.598 | pretrend 0.9934 (0.9908-0.9960) per SD per cohort-year, p 5.5e-06 (rejects; pre-2000 cohorts 1985-1999) | 4 of 9 specifications of this index and survey window (3 cohort shifts x 3 weightings) have intervals above 1; 9 of 36 step-net-of-trend fits in 3210; p 0.0354; no multiplicity adjustment | state PCV7 rollout intensity index flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 (continuous ecological exposure; one SD = 8.91 pp of early uptake) | obesity is treated as a falsification outcome, assuming PCV7 does not affect obesity (section 6); pretrend and 1993 placebo reject; zero causal weight | 3210_pcv7_intensity_obesity_trajectory.csv row 1154 | not quoted in section 6 (survey window through_2019; the section quotes neither these fits nor 'Obesity supplies the falsification') |
| R140 | PCV7 obesity (3210): flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 through_2019 shift -1 equal_cell | 1.034 (1.007-1.062) | RR per SD of the flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 index (8.91 pp), ecological (not an individual RR) |  | nominal interval above 1 (falsification outcome) | 1993 placebo step 0.9565 (0.9376-0.9758), p 4.7e-05 (rejects); net of the linear trend 0.9926 (0.9568-1.0298), p 0.687 | pretrend 0.9940 (0.9920-0.9960) per SD per cohort-year, p 2.3e-07 (rejects; pre-2000 cohorts 1985-1999) | 4 of 9 specifications of this index and survey window (3 cohort shifts x 3 weightings) have intervals above 1; 9 of 36 step-net-of-trend fits in 3210; p 0.0139; no multiplicity adjustment | state PCV7 rollout intensity index flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 (continuous ecological exposure; one SD = 8.91 pp of early uptake) | obesity is treated as a falsification outcome, assuming PCV7 does not affect obesity (section 6); pretrend and 1993 placebo reject; zero causal weight | 3210_pcv7_intensity_obesity_trajectory.csv row 990 | not quoted in section 6 (survey window through_2019; the section quotes neither these fits nor 'Obesity supplies the falsification') |
| R141 | PCV7 obesity (3210): flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 through_2019 shift -1 sample_size | 1.032 (1.000-1.066) | RR per SD of the flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 index (8.91 pp), ecological (not an individual RR) |  | nominal interval above 1 (falsification outcome) | 1993 placebo step 0.9576 (0.9388-0.9769), p 6.6e-05 (rejects); net of the linear trend 0.9978 (0.9638-1.0329), p 0.897 | pretrend 0.9939 (0.9919-0.9959) per SD per cohort-year, p 2.1e-07 (rejects; pre-2000 cohorts 1985-1999) | 4 of 9 specifications of this index and survey window (3 cohort shifts x 3 weightings) have intervals above 1; 9 of 36 step-net-of-trend fits in 3210; p 0.0482; no multiplicity adjustment | state PCV7 rollout intensity index flagship_nis_survey_2001_03 (continuous ecological exposure; one SD = 8.91 pp of early uptake) | obesity is treated as a falsification outcome, assuming PCV7 does not affect obesity (section 6); pretrend and 1993 placebo reject; zero causal weight | 3210_pcv7_intensity_obesity_trajectory.csv row 1031 | not quoted in section 6 (survey window through_2019; the section quotes neither these fits nor 'Obesity supplies the falsification') |
| R142 | Peru: row 12 (outcome=vision_diagnosis; outcome_age=age3_5; lag_years=4; specification=immunization-volume WLS) | 1.560 (1.101-2.209) | RR per 10 pp MMR share of EsSalud immunization services |  | nominal interval above 1 | future-exposure placebo (lag -1) 1.420 (1.163-1.734), q 0.003 [3212 row 113] | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.0311 (BH across 80); p 0.0124; BH_q_all_tests_below_0.05 = 40 (of 80) [3212 row 108] | design_audit: fail / exploratory only: District and year FE, future exposure, multiple lags, two age outcomes, unweighted sensitivity, FDR, interactions, and power are reported. Clinic-location exposure, service-share de... | role: primary-family row; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 110 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 258 (family quoted: 'Peruvian hearing') |
| R143 | Peru: row 32 (outcome=hearing_diagnosis; outcome_age=age3_5; lag_years=4; specification=immunization-volume WLS) | 1.769 (1.259-2.486) | RR per 10 pp MMR share of EsSalud immunization services |  | nominal interval above 1 | future-exposure placebo (lag -1) 1.416 (1.160-1.729), q 0.003 [3212 row 112] | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.0049 (BH across 80); p 0.0010; BH_q_all_tests_below_0.05 = 40 (of 80) [3212 row 108] | design_audit: fail / exploratory only: District and year FE, future exposure, multiple lags, two age outcomes, unweighted sensitivity, FDR, interactions, and power are reported. Clinic-location exposure, service-share de... | role: primary-family row; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 109 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 258 (family quoted: 'Peruvian hearing') |
| R144 | Peru: row 72 (outcome=autism; outcome_age=age3_5; lag_years=4; specification=immunization-volume WLS) | 1.759 (1.093-2.829) | RR per 10 pp MMR share of EsSalud immunization services |  | nominal interval above 1 | future-exposure placebo (lag -1) 1.400 (1.070-1.832), q 0.032 [3212 row 114] | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q 0.0402 (BH across 80); p 0.0201; BH_q_all_tests_below_0.05 = 40 (of 80) [3212 row 108] | design_audit: fail / exploratory only: District and year FE, future exposure, multiple lags, two age outcomes, unweighted sensitivity, FDR, interactions, and power are reported. Clinic-location exposure, service-share de... | role: primary-family row; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 111 | not quoted in section 6 (the autism row of a family the section quotes at paper/journal_manuscript.md line 258: 'Peruvian hearing') |
| R145 | SchoolVaxView category composition: row 7 (category=Other health impair.) | 1.168 (1.013-1.347) | RR per +10 pts MMR, category share of IDEA disability |  | nominal interval above 1 | no placebo stored for this row | no pretrend test stored for this panel in 3212 | row q n/a (none in file); p 0.0321; 8 estimates of this panel in 3212; no multiplicity adjustment stored | continuous coverage exposure (no policy first stage stored) | role: claim-relevant category; zero causal-synthesis weight (section 6) | 3212_nonautism_panel_results.csv row 107 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 258 (value quoted) |

## chronic outcome: published literature

| register_id | item_id | value | scale | p_gt_1 | signal_class | placebo | pretrend | multiplicity | first_stage | status_or_gate | src | named_in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R146 | LIT-AND-ASP0718 | 1.670 (1.010-2.770) | HR |  | published interval above 1 | none (observational or single estimate) | not applicable (published estimate) | no multiplicity correction (3211 note) | not applicable (published person-level or natural-experiment estimate) | zero causal weight; verification: capture_image_pending_archive | 3211_chronic_figure_literature_rows.csv row 24 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 252 (value quoted) |
| R147 | LIT-OST-ITS | 1.110 (1.030-1.200) | relative HR |  | published interval above 1 | post hoc placebo cutoffs: Hepatitis B introduction, births from 1 Nov 2016 1.10 (0.96-1.28) [3211 row 16]; PCV7 to PCV13 switch, births from 1 Nov 2010 1.10 (0.97-1.24) [3211 row 17] | not applicable (published estimate) | not reported | not applicable (published person-level or natural-experiment estimate) | zero causal weight; verification: capture_text_pending_archive | 3211_chronic_figure_literature_rows.csv row 14 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 244 (value quoted) |
| R148 | LIT_ANDERSSON_2025_ATOPIC_DERMATITIS | 1.020 (1.000-1.040) | HR per mg |  | published lower limit equal to 1.00 | none (observational cohort) | not applicable | one of 50 chronic outcomes; no adjustment | not applicable: dose contrast, not vaccination versus none | observational; printed lower limit equals 1.00 (not above 1) | paper/journal_manuscript.md row 252 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 252 (value quoted) |
| R149 | LIT_CLASSEN_2002_T1D | 1.260 (no interval) | relative risk (no interval) |  | harm-direction point estimate (p < 0.05), no interval | none | not applicable (non-randomized comparison across birth years) | clusters located by searching the follow-up data (data-derived windows) | randomized trial arms, but this contrast uses a pre-trial cohort (not randomized) | zero weight: non-randomized comparison across birth years and data-derived windows (section 6) | paper/journal_manuscript.md row 242 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 242 (value quoted) |
| R150 | LIT_DALEY_2023_ASTHMA_ECZEMA | 1.260 (1.070-1.490) | adjusted HR per mg |  | published interval above 1 | none (observational cohort) | not applicable (dose-response cohort, no event timing) | two eczema strata reported; no adjustment | not applicable: contrasts cumulative aluminum dose, not vaccination versus none | zero causal weight; residual confounding possible (section 6) | paper/journal_manuscript.md row 252 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 252 (value quoted) |
| R151 | LIT_DALEY_2023_ASTHMA_NO_ECZEMA | 1.190 (1.140-1.250) | adjusted HR per mg |  | published interval above 1 | none (observational cohort) | not applicable (dose-response cohort, no event timing) | two eczema strata reported; no adjustment | not applicable: contrasts cumulative aluminum dose, not vaccination versus none | zero causal weight; the authors note the association may reflect residual confounding (section 6) | paper/journal_manuscript.md row 252 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 252 (value quoted) |
| R152 | LIT_LAMERATO_2025_CHRONIC | 2.540 (2.160-2.970) | adjusted HR |  | published interval above 1 | none | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable (vaccinated versus unvaccinated cohort contrast) | zero weight: unvaccinated children use less healthcare (utilization and ascertainment bias; section 6) | raw/literature/lamerato_2025_senate_hearing_record.txt row 689 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 238 (value quoted) |
| R153 | LIT_MAWSON_JACOB_2025_NDD | 3.120 (2.850-3.410) | OR |  | published interval above 1 | none | not applicable (cross-sectional claims contrast) | not applicable | not applicable (vaccinated versus unvaccinated claims contrast) | zero weight: open to healthcare-utilization and ascertainment bias (section 6) | paper/journal_manuscript.md row 238 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 238 (value quoted) |
| R154 | LIT_NOHYNEK_2012_NARCOLEPSY | 12.700 (6.100-30.800) | rate ratio |  | published interval above 1 | not applicable (risk-window design) | not applicable | not applicable | vaccination campaign (risk-window registry design) | a product-specific harm detected by a risk-window registry design (section 2.2 lists it among detected harms); about one case per 16,000 vaccinated | paper/journal_manuscript.md row 262 | section 6, paper/journal_manuscript.md line 262 (value quoted) |

## Reading

- The only hierarchy context that meets the rule is U.S. PCV (P(r>1) about 0.95, lower bound about 0.97), inside the joint U.S. core v2 likelihood; its U.S.-alone diagnostics rise under the 1997-bound and infant-exposure paths (both at p20 under the ESS fallback), while the shared mean across contexts is below 1 (see the hierarchy headline).
- The global block posteriors above 1 (Brazil HepA census autism, French HepB other-neurologic) both have future+3 placebos that exclude 1, i.e. the placebo fires at a similar size.
- The chronic panel rows are ecological, zero-weight associations; their placebo and multiplicity columns show which survive adjustment (Hong Kong, Peru), which have firing placebos (Peru's future-exposure placebos), and which have a future placebo as large as the estimate (the French pooled-cohort MMR2 first-difference row, 1.100: its future placebo is 1.100, 0.964-1.256; p 0.158, which does not itself reject).
- Brazil SIH (R107): the family's one nominal row above 1, 1.0009 (1.0004-1.0015), comes from the 'primary raw coverage; unweighted' fit only (the population-weighted fits of the same series include 1), is not a false-discovery-rate survivor, and sits beside failed positive controls (placebo column).
- PCV7 youth obesity (R133-R141, 9 rows): the post-2000 step net of a whole-window linear trend is 1.030-1.035 where its interval lies above 1; obesity is a falsification outcome here, and every pretrend and 1993 placebo test of these specifications rejects (pretrend and placebo columns).
- EURODIAB (R109): 1.137 (1.017-1.271) is one extreme of the single-country deletions in the earlier 21-centre sample (the extreme of 17 single-country deletions of this specification (range 0.687 without Austria to 1.137 without Italy); full earlier-sample estimate 0.884 (0.558-1.401), p 0.578).