# 3381 - Round-2 injury negative controls, Europe: Germany PCV, Sweden PCV, Czechia MMR

**Documented context readings:** Germany PCV (DEU_PCV, DEU_A) UNINFORMATIVE; Sweden PCV (SWE_PCV_corrected, SWE_A) CONSISTENT; Czechia MMR (CZE_MMR_counts model, CZE_A closest cells) UNINFORMATIVE. Beside them (never changing them): DEU_PCV_rebuilt (DEU_B) CONSISTENT; Swedish external causes SVOV (SWE_B) CONSISTENT; Swedish external causes SV (SWE_C) CONSISTENT.

Generated by `07_analysis_code/3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.py`; every number below is computed by that script and also written to `3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.csv` / `3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.json` (per-cell counts: `3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2_cells.csv`). Figure: `08_figures/3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.png`. Fits and receipts: `project_results/negative_controls_3330/3381/`. Tests: `07_analysis_code/test_3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.py`. Acquisition: `07_analysis_code/3381_acquire_injury_controls_europe_round2.py`. Status: falsification audit; ecological; changes no gate, estimate or pooled result.

## Interpretation rule (documented)

Rule file `qa/negative_controls_20260925/3381_rule.json`, SHA-256 `c19a22dbe261fe7ec47193feb925ffa55d7df805f0a117a1322584c4f10cde8e` (also `qa/negative_controls_20260925/3381_rule.sha256`). Written: 2026-09-29 22:46 CDT (2026-09-30T03:46Z), before any 3381 fit: no likelihood, posterior, placebo, harm-injection or DDD fit of any outcome (injury or autism, on any cell set) had been run by this task. The fit folder project_results/negative_controls_3330/3381/ held only describe_3381.json (counts and cell accounting from the script's --describe mode, which fits nothing) and data/cze_extract.csv.gz (a filtered copy of the two Czech files). File mtime 2026-09-29T22:47:09-05:00; first 3381 fit started 2026-09-29T22:54:01-05:00; rule before first fit: True. All 15 receipts and every fit-log line carry this hash (the report refuses otherwise). Protected files (processed/global_*.py, gate_decisions.json, blocks.csv) unchanged since the fits: True.

Classes in order (the round-1 3348 rule): UNINFORMATIVE if (a) not fittable, (b) THIN (sparser than the autism series it checks), or (c) 95% CrI log width > 2.5 x the width reference's; otherwise BIAS SIGNAL if the 95% CrI excludes 1; otherwise UNINFORMATIVE (d) if the CrI log width >= 0.8 x the N(0, ln 2) prior's (2.1737); otherwise CONSISTENT. Beside every class: the literal class (no (d)) and the 3347 class order (width, prior-dominated, not fitted; no THIN). Width reference = autism refitted on the same cells (Sweden: the control's retained cells; Czechia: the autism block's own 2019-2024 cells; Swedish external causes: the 756-cell autism fit). Future+3 placebo D4: PASS iff its 95% CrI includes 1 under all four kernel settings. Context reading from the seven primary controls of the reading design.

## Downloads (approved: `qa/negative_controls_20260925/DOWNLOAD_REQUEST.md`)

| folder | files | bytes | sha256 = sidecar | example data url |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `raw/germany/destatis_injury_3381/` | 8 | 330,500 | True | https://genesis.destatis.de/genesis/api/rest/tables/23131-0011/data |
| `raw/sweden/socialstyrelsen/injury_3381/` | 46 | 3,971,686 | True | https://sdb.socialstyrelsen.se/api/v1/sv/diagnoserislutenoppenvard/resultat/matt/6/diagnos/1901/kon/3/alder/1,2,3/region/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,12,13,14,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25 |
| `raw/sweden/socialstyrelsen/extcause_child_3381/` | 75 | 11,691,999 | True | https://sdb.socialstyrelsen.se/api/v1/sv/yttreorsakertillskadorochforgiftningarbarn/resultat/matt/6/diagnos/VX01/kon/3/alder/1,2,3,4,5,6/region/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,12,13,14,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25/vardform/SV |
| `raw/czechia_nrhzs/NR-04-06/` | 2 | 55,952,956 | True | https://datanzis.uzis.gov.cz/data/NR-04-NRHZS/NR-04-06/Otevrena-data-NR-04-06-diagnozy-skupiny-mkn-10.csv.gz |
| `raw/czechia_nrhzs/NR-04-05/` | 2 | 348,702,491 | True | https://datanzis.uzis.gov.cz/data/NR-04-NRHZS/NR-04-05/Otevrena-data-NR-04-05-diagnozy-triznakove-mkn-10.csv.gz |

| file | bytes | sha256 |
|---|---|---|
| `raw/germany/destatis_injury_3381/23131-0011_GES025_INJ3381_2000_2002.json.gz` | 41,859 | `867cf04574d1945b7705c41a6f817c30856024072eceba98f65d5ce8c07845db` |
| `raw/germany/destatis_injury_3381/23131-0011_GES025_INJ3381_2003_2005.json.gz` | 41,415 | `3ed19e9fbc634723f9d7bb2e157a327edcc352cfceffb598fa72935f882ea6b1` |
| `raw/germany/destatis_injury_3381/23131-0011_GES025_INJ3381_2006_2008.json.gz` | 41,189 | `dff0628c84c5d2a1675733edeeac0d544df598cf1291e5f692b8d7227c4d381b` |
| `raw/germany/destatis_injury_3381/23131-0011_GES025_INJ3381_2009_2011.json.gz` | 41,414 | `dbafed9c15a87dbbfa0b3b74c0b93b742b34ff310000b3a229841d0473fdb627` |
| `raw/germany/destatis_injury_3381/23131-0011_GES025_INJ3381_2012_2014.json.gz` | 41,218 | `0c6d3c5c241aca7f7d2487ddd5cf82795d931715d262278745b593d0f3db25cc` |
| `raw/germany/destatis_injury_3381/23131-0011_GES025_INJ3381_2015_2017.json.gz` | 41,435 | `072b6de4afdf3fbd3cd6c20ea502ca1fa5a2ed6b2c745795a2305d18124789f3` |
| `raw/germany/destatis_injury_3381/23131-0011_GES025_INJ3381_2018_2020.json.gz` | 41,355 | `8a6bcbda4103ad7d0f1cf37aa07cfa6d85ff242119e1136e962c4e52d9cbb464` |
| `raw/germany/destatis_injury_3381/23131-0011_GES025_INJ3381_2021_2023.json.gz` | 40,615 | `fb3bc78f95558ea1591d1b84b6bfe480707435b8ee0f1eb5f6380c5ad08342fc` |
| `raw/czechia_nrhzs/NR-04-06/Otevrena-data-NR-04-06-diagnozy-skupiny-mkn-10.csv.gz` | 55,949,289 | `7c4214403e8b1ca356243f00f7e6bc8ddf70b2854d2ed409caafc6f528b46124` |
| `raw/czechia_nrhzs/NR-04-05/Otevrena-data-NR-04-05-diagnozy-triznakove-mkn-10.csv.gz` | 348,698,804 | `a031c0fe1bee585d2e214af1442482c322dcf30a8738225873b3797369977345` |

Every file has a `<file>.meta.json` sidecar (url, method, retrieval UTC time, sha256, bytes, terms, approval).

## Not obtained, or changed from the request entries

- Czech T20-T32 and T36-T50 are not in the NR-04-06 group file (its codes are UZIS podkapitoly: 110 S00-S09, 111 fractures, 112 other injuries, 113 T15-T79 as one group, 114 T80-T88; NZIP methodology 1749), contrary to the discovery record. They were taken from the NR-04-05 three-character file, the entry's other listed file (348,698,804 bytes, under the 1 GB E-backed threshold, streamed, never decompressed to disk).
- Czech cells identical to the autism block (ages 4-6 / 7-10) do not exist: NR-04-05 / NR-04-06 carry 5-year bands only, so CZE_A uses the closest cells (5-9, 2019-2024) and no DDD can be formed.
- Swedish external causes: the request entry's URL pattern (/yttreorsak/<ID>/) is silently ignored by the API, which then returns all external causes (diagnosId 99). The working filter is /diagnos/<ID>/; the acquisition checks the returned id on every file. No file with the wrong id was kept.
- Swedish F84 patient counts (matt 6) are not in the approved downloads (only injury ids); the THIN check derives them from the published F84 rate and the chapter-19 count / rate population.
- Swedish sex-specific rows (kon 1 / 2) were not fetched: no design here uses them.
- Germany 2024 injury counts come from the held full 2024 cube (the approved request covered 2000-2023).
- The Destatis request also carried S12, S22, S32, S62, S92, T02, T78 and T80-T88 beyond the entry's URL code list: the remaining codes of the round-1 3348 outcome definitions (fracture composite; the all-injury control subtracts T78 and T80-T88). The Swedish request likewise carried T78 and id 1922 (T80-T88).

## Reproduction (required; NOT VALIDATED otherwise)

- DEU_PCV (frozen, 36 cells): input hash = gate record: True; refit 1.03 (0.27-3.96) vs 3320 own data '1.03 (0.27-3.96)'; max rel. error 0.0e+00; F84 y vs the outcome csv 0.0e+00. PASS.
- DEU_PCV_rebuilt (825 cells, built from the 3381 augmented frame): input hash = gate record: True; refit 0.49 (0.21-1.08) vs blocks.csv '0.49 (0.21-1.08)'; max rel. error 0.0e+00; curves 0.0e+00. PASS.
- Germany 2024 injury cells vs 3348: 627 cells, max |difference| 0. PASS.
- SWE_PCV_corrected (756 cells): input hash = gate record: True; refit 1.01 (0.79-1.56) vs blocks.csv '1.01 (0.79-1.56)'; max rel. error 0.0e+00; curves 0.0e+00; provider shift 0 vs block 2.2e-16, shift 3 vs the published future+3 block 0.0e+00; hepb74 / rv74 rules 0.0e+00 / 6.9e-17. PASS.
- CZE_MMR_counts (1,078 cells): input hash = gate record: True; six variants vs count_curves.npz 0.0e+00; refit 1.035 (0.322-3.660) (3320 own data '1.04 (0.32-3.66)'); max rel. error 0.0e+00; population rule exact: True; exposure formula 5.0e-11. PASS.

Validated: Germany True, Sweden True, Czechia True.

## Cells and cell loss

- DEU_A: the frozen DEU_PCV block's 36 cells (Laender x 2013/2014 at 5-9, 2018/2019 at 10-14), identical cells, population and exposure; no cell lost; a control with a zero cell is not fittable (S12, S32, S92, T02).
- DEU_B: the 825 DEU_PCV_rebuilt cells (11 merged regions x 2000-2024 x 3 bands); no cell lost; zero-cell guard makes S12, S22, S32, S62, S92, T02 not fittable.
- SWE_A: the 756 SWE_PCV_corrected cells; balanced-series rule (lost series per outcome below).
- SWE_B / SWE_C: 1,134 closest cells (21 counties x 6-8 / 9-11 / 12-14 x 2008-2025) before the balanced-series rule.
- CZE_A: 462 closest cells (77 districts x 5-9 x 2019-2024) in place of the autism block's 1,078 (4-6 x 2016-2024, 7-10 x 2020-2024); width reference = the 847 autism cells of 2019-2024; patients with unknown residence (okres 0999) excluded (counts below).

| design | outcome | autism block cells | fitted cells | cells lost | reason / detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEU_A | All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Intracranial Injury (S06) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Burns (T20-T32) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Poisoning (T36-T65) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Skull or Facial Fracture (S02) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Neck Fracture (S12) | 36 | 0 | 36 | S12: 13 zero cell(s) on the frozen cells (the frozen adapter requires positive counts) |
| DEU_A | Rib or Thoracic Fracture (S22) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Lumbar or Pelvic Fracture (S32) | 36 | 0 | 36 | S32: 1 zero cell(s) on the frozen cells (the frozen adapter requires positive counts) |
| DEU_A | Shoulder or Upper-Arm Fracture (S42) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Forearm Fracture (S52) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Wrist or Hand Fracture (S62) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Femur Fracture (S72) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Lower-Leg Fracture (S82) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_A | Foot Fracture (S92) | 36 | 0 | 36 | S92: 1 zero cell(s) on the frozen cells (the frozen adapter requires positive counts) |
| DEU_A | Multiple-Region Fractures (T02) | 36 | 0 | 36 | T02: 35 zero cell(s) on the frozen cells (the frozen adapter requires positive counts) |
| DEU_A | Other External Causes Incl. Drowning (T75) | 36 | 36 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | Intracranial Injury (S06) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | Burns (T20-T32) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | Poisoning (T36-T65) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | Skull or Facial Fracture (S02) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | Neck Fracture (S12) | 825 | 0 | 825 | zero-cell guard: 279 zero cell(s); S12: zero cells remain; aggregate further or use the labelled continuity sensitivity |
| DEU_B | Rib or Thoracic Fracture (S22) | 825 | 0 | 825 | zero-cell guard: 36 zero cell(s); S22: zero cells remain; aggregate further or use the labelled continuity sensitivity |
| DEU_B | Lumbar or Pelvic Fracture (S32) | 825 | 0 | 825 | zero-cell guard: 81 zero cell(s); S32: zero cells remain; aggregate further or use the labelled continuity sensitivity |
| DEU_B | Shoulder or Upper-Arm Fracture (S42) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | Forearm Fracture (S52) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | Wrist or Hand Fracture (S62) | 825 | 0 | 825 | zero-cell guard: 1 zero cell(s); S62: zero cells remain; aggregate further or use the labelled continuity sensitivity |
| DEU_B | Femur Fracture (S72) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | Lower-Leg Fracture (S82) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| DEU_B | Foot Fracture (S92) | 825 | 0 | 825 | zero-cell guard: 7 zero cell(s); S92: zero cells remain; aggregate further or use the labelled continuity sensitivity |
| DEU_B | Multiple-Region Fractures (T02) | 825 | 0 | 825 | zero-cell guard: 681 zero cell(s); T02: zero cells remain; aggregate further or use the labelled continuity sensitivity |
| DEU_B | Other External Causes Incl. Drowning (T75) | 825 | 825 | 0 |  |
| SWE_A | All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 756 | 756 | 0 |  |
| SWE_A | Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 756 | 756 | 0 |  |
| SWE_A | Intracranial Injury (S06) | 756 | 756 | 0 |  |
| SWE_A | Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 756 | 756 | 0 |  |
| SWE_A | Burns (T20-T32) | 756 | 612 | 144 | 8 series lost: county 9 x 5-9, county 9 x 10-14, county 10 x 5-9, county 10 x 10-14, county 17 x 5-9, county 23 x 10-14 ... |
| SWE_A | Poisoning (T36-T65) | 756 | 684 | 72 | 4 series lost: county 9 x 5-9, county 21 x 5-9, county 23 x 5-9, county 25 x 5-9 |
| SWE_A | Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 756 | 756 | 0 |  |
| SWE_A | Skull or Facial Fracture (S02) | 756 | 648 | 108 | 6 series lost: county 7 x 5-9, county 9 x 5-9, county 9 x 10-14, county 23 x 5-9, county 23 x 10-14, county 25 x 10-14 |
| SWE_A | Neck Fracture (S12) | 756 | 0 | 756 | 18 retained cells < 20 |
| SWE_A | Rib or Thoracic Fracture (S22) | 756 | 180 | 576 | 32 series lost: county 3 x 5-9, county 3 x 10-14, county 4 x 5-9, county 4 x 10-14, county 5 x 5-9, county 6 x 5-9 ... |
| SWE_A | Lumbar or Pelvic Fracture (S32) | 756 | 126 | 630 | 35 series lost: county 1 x 5-9, county 3 x 5-9, county 3 x 10-14, county 4 x 5-9, county 4 x 10-14, county 5 x 5-9 ... |
| SWE_A | Shoulder or Upper-Arm Fracture (S42) | 756 | 756 | 0 |  |
| SWE_A | Forearm Fracture (S52) | 756 | 756 | 0 |  |
| SWE_A | Wrist or Hand Fracture (S62) | 756 | 756 | 0 |  |
| SWE_A | Femur Fracture (S72) | 756 | 522 | 234 | 13 series lost: county 4 x 5-9, county 7 x 5-9, county 7 x 10-14, county 8 x 5-9, county 8 x 10-14, county 9 x 5-9 ... |
| SWE_A | Lower-Leg Fracture (S82) | 756 | 756 | 0 |  |
| SWE_A | Foot Fracture (S92) | 756 | 738 | 18 | 1 series lost: county 9 x 10-14 |
| SWE_A | Multiple-Region Fractures (T02) | 756 | 0 | 756 | zero patients in every cell |
| SWE_A | Other External Causes Incl. Drowning (T75) | 756 | 90 | 666 | 37 series lost: county 3 x 5-9, county 3 x 10-14, county 4 x 5-9, county 4 x 10-14, county 5 x 5-9, county 5 x 10-14 ... |
| SWE_B | All Accidents (V01-X59) | 756 | 1,134 | 0 |  |
| SWE_B | Falls (W00-W19) | 756 | 1,134 | 0 |  |
| SWE_B | Transport (V01-V99) | 756 | 1,134 | 0 |  |
| SWE_B | Drowning (W65-W74) | 756 | 0 | 1,134 | 0 retained cells < 20 |
| SWE_B | Dog Bite (W54) | 756 | 576 | 558 | 31 series lost |
| SWE_B | Accidental Poisoning (X40-X49) | 756 | 234 | 900 | 50 series lost |
| SWE_B | Smoke or Fire (X00-X09) | 756 | 144 | 990 | 55 series lost |
| SWE_B | Hot Substances (X10-X19) | 756 | 558 | 576 | 32 series lost |
| SWE_B | Land Transport (V01-V89) | 756 | 1,134 | 0 |  |
| SWE_C | All Accidents (V01-X59) | 756 | 1,134 | 0 |  |
| SWE_C | Falls (W00-W19) | 756 | 1,134 | 0 |  |
| SWE_C | Transport (V01-V99) | 756 | 1,116 | 18 | 1 series lost |
| SWE_C | Drowning (W65-W74) | 756 | 0 | 1,134 | 0 retained cells < 20 |
| SWE_C | Dog Bite (W54) | 756 | 0 | 1,134 | 0 retained cells < 20 |
| SWE_C | Accidental Poisoning (X40-X49) | 756 | 54 | 1,080 | 60 series lost |
| SWE_C | Smoke or Fire (X00-X09) | 756 | 0 | 1,134 | 0 retained cells < 20 |
| SWE_C | Hot Substances (X10-X19) | 756 | 0 | 1,134 | 0 retained cells < 20 |
| SWE_C | Land Transport (V01-V89) | 756 | 1,116 | 18 | 1 series lost |
| CZE_A | All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 8,389 patients |
| CZE_A | Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 1,987 patients |
| CZE_A | Intracranial Injury (S06) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 162 patients |
| CZE_A | Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 1,298 patients |
| CZE_A | Burns (T20-T32) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 72 patients |
| CZE_A | Poisoning (T36-T65) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 153 patients |
| CZE_A | Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 194 patients |
| CZE_A | Skull or Facial Fracture (S02) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 86 patients |
| CZE_A | Neck Fracture (S12) | 1078 | 0 | 1,078 | zero patients in every cell |
| CZE_A | Rib or Thoracic Fracture (S22) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 27 patients |
| CZE_A | Lumbar or Pelvic Fracture (S32) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 4 patients |
| CZE_A | Shoulder or Upper-Arm Fracture (S42) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 295 patients |
| CZE_A | Forearm Fracture (S52) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 522 patients |
| CZE_A | Wrist or Hand Fracture (S62) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 211 patients |
| CZE_A | Femur Fracture (S72) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 18 patients |
| CZE_A | Lower-Leg Fracture (S82) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 183 patients |
| CZE_A | Foot Fracture (S92) | 1078 | 462 | 1,078 | unknown residence (0999) 2019-2024: 116 patients |
| CZE_A | Multiple-Region Fractures (T02) | 1078 | 0 | 1,078 | zero patients in every cell |
| CZE_A | Other External Causes Incl. Drowning (T75) | 1078 | 0 | 1,078 | zero patients in every cell |

## Results

### DEU_A (reading): DEU_PCV, pooled Germany PCV context, frozen 36 cells

| outcome | cells (lost) | events (min cell) | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | CrI log width / ref | class (rule) | literal | 3347 order | future+3 (D4) | family (strict) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autism (F84) [width reference] | 36 (0) | 1,116 (1) | 1.03 (0.27-3.96) | 0.520 | - | reference (prior-dominated) | - | - | NOT TESTABLE | NOT TESTABLE |
| All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 36 (0) | 110,192 (617) | 1.09 (0.31-3.91) | 0.553 | 0.94 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | NOT TESTABLE | NOT TESTABLE |
| Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 36 (0) | 45,273 (242) | 0.98 (0.28-3.51) | 0.488 | 0.94 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | NOT TESTABLE | NOT TESTABLE |
| Intracranial Injury (S06) | 36 (0) | 34,333 (181) | 1.02 (0.28-3.74) | 0.512 | 0.96 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | NOT TESTABLE | NOT TESTABLE |
| Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 36 (0) | 37,976 (211) | 1.22 (0.33-4.37) | 0.617 | 0.96 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | NOT TESTABLE | NOT TESTABLE |
| Burns (T20-T32) | 36 (0) | 1,735 (4) | 0.84 (0.23-3.20) | 0.400 | 0.98 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | NOT TESTABLE | NOT TESTABLE |
| Poisoning (T36-T65) | 36 (0) | 2,593 (6) | 0.68 (0.18-2.89) | 0.297 | 1.02 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | NOT TESTABLE | NOT TESTABLE |
| Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 36 (0) | 1,307 (6) | 0.90 (0.23-3.70) | 0.440 | 1.04 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | NOT TESTABLE | NOT TESTABLE |

DDD (autism relative to each control, same cells; beside the class):

| contrast | cells | r_DDD (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | CrI log width (prior-dominated) | separate-fit ratio | future+3 (D4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autism vs. All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 36 | 1.05 (0.27-4.04) | 0.528 | 2.708 (yes) | 0.95 | NOT TESTABLE |
| Autism vs. Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 36 | 1.06 (0.27-4.10) | 0.535 | 2.714 (yes) | 1.06 | NOT TESTABLE |
| Autism vs. Intracranial Injury (S06) | 36 | 1.06 (0.27-4.08) | 0.534 | 2.711 (yes) | 1.01 | NOT TESTABLE |
| Autism vs. Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 36 | 1.03 (0.27-3.99) | 0.519 | 2.712 (yes) | 0.85 | NOT TESTABLE |
| Autism vs. Burns (T20-T32) | 36 | 1.09 (0.28-4.22) | 0.551 | 2.721 (yes) | 1.22 | NOT TESTABLE |
| Autism vs. Poisoning (T36-T65) | 36 | 1.12 (0.29-4.23) | 0.568 | 2.678 (yes) | 1.51 | NOT TESTABLE |
| Autism vs. Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 36 | 1.08 (0.28-4.06) | 0.545 | 2.670 (yes) | 1.15 | NOT TESTABLE |

Secondary (classified, never change the reading):

| outcome | cells (lost) | events (min cell) | r (95% CrI) | class (rule) | future+3 (D4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skull or Facial Fracture (S02) | 36 (0) | 1,474 (9) | 1.12 (0.30-4.10) | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | NOT TESTABLE |
| Neck Fracture (S12) | 0 (36) | 58 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: S12: 13 zero cell(s) on the frozen cells (the frozen adapter requires positive counts) | NOT TESTABLE |
| Rib or Thoracic Fracture (S22) | 36 (0) | 668 (1) | 0.99 (0.26-3.74) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | NOT TESTABLE |
| Lumbar or Pelvic Fracture (S32) | 0 (36) | 485 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: S32: 1 zero cell(s) on the frozen cells (the frozen adapter requires positive counts) | NOT TESTABLE |
| Shoulder or Upper-Arm Fracture (S42) | 36 (0) | 7,426 (31) | 1.07 (0.29-3.93) | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | NOT TESTABLE |
| Forearm Fracture (S52) | 36 (0) | 18,249 (104) | 1.26 (0.33-4.62) | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | NOT TESTABLE |
| Wrist or Hand Fracture (S62) | 36 (0) | 1,752 (2) | 0.88 (0.23-3.53) | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | NOT TESTABLE |
| Femur Fracture (S72) | 36 (0) | 1,370 (3) | 0.98 (0.27-3.58) | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | NOT TESTABLE |
| Lower-Leg Fracture (S82) | 36 (0) | 5,672 (19) | 1.00 (0.27-3.75) | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | NOT TESTABLE |
| Foot Fracture (S92) | 0 (36) | 821 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: S92: 1 zero cell(s) on the frozen cells (the frozen adapter requires positive counts) | NOT TESTABLE |
| Multiple-Region Fractures (T02) | 0 (36) | 1 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: T02: 35 zero cell(s) on the frozen cells (the frozen adapter requires positive counts) | NOT TESTABLE |
| Other External Causes Incl. Drowning (T75) | 36 (0) | 1,022 (3) | 0.98 (0.26-3.76) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | NOT TESTABLE |

### DEU_B (report): DEU_PCV_rebuilt, 825 cells

| outcome | cells (lost) | events (min cell) | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | CrI log width / ref | class (rule) | literal | 3347 order | future+3 (D4) | family (strict) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autism (F84) [width reference] | 825 (0) | 34,386 (1) | 0.49 (0.21-1.08) | 0.038 | - | reference | - | - | 1.05 (0.37-2.29) PASS | PASS |
| All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 825 (0) | 4,758,973 (1,229) | 1.12 (0.94-1.32) | 0.898 | 0.21 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 1.07 (0.91-1.25) PASS | FAIL |
| Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 825 (0) | 2,442,342 (404) | 1.09 (0.87-1.36) | 0.770 | 0.27 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 0.97 (0.79-1.21) PASS | PASS |
| Intracranial Injury (S06) | 825 (0) | 1,709,881 (291) | 1.24 (0.94-1.62) | 0.937 | 0.33 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 0.93 (0.73-1.19) PASS | FAIL |
| Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 825 (0) | 1,260,566 (155) | 1.10 (0.91-1.32) | 0.854 | 0.22 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 1.12 (0.95-1.32) PASS | PASS |
| Burns (T20-T32) | 825 (0) | 166,172 (6) | 0.69 (0.40-1.18) | 0.089 | 0.66 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 1.29 (0.81-1.89) PASS | PASS |
| Poisoning (T36-T65) | 825 (0) | 187,311 (11) | 1.28 (0.77-2.13) | 0.829 | 0.62 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 1.14 (0.70-1.71) PASS | PASS |
| Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 825 (0) | 105,757 (6) | 1.56 (0.89-2.43) | 0.947 | 0.62 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 1.34 (0.85-1.99) PASS | PASS |

DDD (autism relative to each control, same cells; beside the class):

| contrast | cells | r_DDD (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | CrI log width (prior-dominated) | separate-fit ratio | future+3 (D4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autism vs. All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 825 | 0.47 (0.21-1.03) | 0.029 | 1.604 (no) | 0.44 | 0.95 (0.33-2.14) PASS |
| Autism vs. Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 825 | 0.50 (0.22-1.07) | 0.036 | 1.576 (no) | 0.45 | 0.98 (0.34-2.16) PASS |
| Autism vs. Intracranial Injury (S06) | 825 | 0.51 (0.23-1.07) | 0.037 | 1.550 (no) | 0.39 | 1.00 (0.34-2.21) PASS |
| Autism vs. Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 825 | 0.46 (0.20-1.01) | 0.027 | 1.612 (no) | 0.44 | 0.93 (0.34-2.03) PASS |
| Autism vs. Burns (T20-T32) | 825 | 0.68 (0.27-1.61) | 0.198 | 1.785 (no) | 0.71 | 0.90 (0.29-2.19) PASS |
| Autism vs. Poisoning (T36-T65) | 825 | 0.46 (0.19-1.06) | 0.034 | 1.711 (no) | 0.38 | 0.92 (0.32-2.09) PASS |
| Autism vs. Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 825 | 0.53 (0.22-1.24) | 0.072 | 1.735 (no) | 0.31 | 0.90 (0.28-2.19) PASS |

Secondary (classified, never change the reading):

| outcome | cells (lost) | events (min cell) | r (95% CrI) | class (rule) | future+3 (D4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skull or Facial Fracture (S02) | 825 (0) | 107,744 (12) | 1.05 (0.66-1.64) | CONSISTENT | 1.18 (0.71-1.79) PASS |
| Neck Fracture (S12) | 0 (825) | 1,881 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: zero-cell guard: 279 zero cell(s); S12: zero cells remain; aggregate further or use the labelled continuity sensitivity | NOT TESTABLE |
| Rib or Thoracic Fracture (S22) | 0 (825) | 18,900 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: zero-cell guard: 36 zero cell(s); S22: zero cells remain; aggregate further or use the labelled continuity sensitivity | NOT TESTABLE |
| Lumbar or Pelvic Fracture (S32) | 0 (825) | 13,001 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: zero-cell guard: 81 zero cell(s); S32: zero cells remain; aggregate further or use the labelled continuity sensitivity | NOT TESTABLE |
| Shoulder or Upper-Arm Fracture (S42) | 825 (0) | 243,022 (23) | 1.01 (0.69-1.51) | CONSISTENT | 0.99 (0.72-1.34) PASS |
| Forearm Fracture (S52) | 825 (0) | 536,780 (39) | 1.06 (0.78-1.40) | CONSISTENT | 1.10 (0.83-1.42) PASS |
| Wrist or Hand Fracture (S62) | 0 (825) | 52,854 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: zero-cell guard: 1 zero cell(s); S62: zero cells remain; aggregate further or use the labelled continuity sensitivity | NOT TESTABLE |
| Femur Fracture (S72) | 825 (0) | 73,149 (5) | 0.82 (0.55-1.17) | CONSISTENT | 0.82 (0.45-1.27) PASS |
| Lower-Leg Fracture (S82) | 825 (0) | 189,765 (7) | 1.10 (0.74-1.59) | CONSISTENT | 0.79 (0.47-1.19) PASS |
| Foot Fracture (S92) | 0 (825) | 23,182 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: zero-cell guard: 7 zero cell(s); S92: zero cells remain; aggregate further or use the labelled continuity sensitivity | NOT TESTABLE |
| Multiple-Region Fractures (T02) | 0 (825) | 288 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: zero-cell guard: 681 zero cell(s); T02: zero cells remain; aggregate further or use the labelled continuity sensitivity | NOT TESTABLE |
| Other External Causes Incl. Drowning (T75) | 825 (0) | 60,614 (4) | 0.63 (0.37-0.99) | BIAS SIGNAL, r < 1 (protective direction) | 1.26 (0.77-1.90) PASS |

### SWE_A (reading): SWE_PCV_corrected, pooled Sweden PCV context

| outcome | cells (lost) | events (min cell) | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | CrI log width / ref | class (rule) | literal | 3347 order | future+3 (D4) | family (strict) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autism (F84) [width reference] | 756 (0) | 129,104 (2) | 1.01 (0.79-1.56) | 0.535 | - | reference | - | - | 0.91 (0.74-1.13) PASS | PASS |
| All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 756 (0) | 1,327,637 (78) | 1.06 (0.98-1.13) | 0.932 | 0.21 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 1.00 (0.89-1.07) PASS | PASS |
| Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 756 (0) | 267,877 (20) | 1.04 (0.94-1.15) | 0.811 | 0.29 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 1.00 (0.90-1.09) PASS | PASS |
| Intracranial Injury (S06) | 756 (0) | 68,380 (10) | 1.01 (0.91-1.12) | 0.563 | 0.30 | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | 0.96 (0.87-1.04) PASS | PASS |
| Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 756 (0) | 501,269 (35) | 1.04 (0.97-1.11) | 0.889 | 0.21 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 1.03 (0.92-1.09) PASS | PASS |
| Burns (T20-T32) | 612 (144) | 10,865 (1) | 1.16 (0.92-1.44) | 0.902 | 0.66 | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | 1.07 (0.83-1.30) PASS | PASS |
| Poisoning (T36-T65) | 684 (72) | 13,020 (1) | 1.38 (0.93-2.01) | 0.947 | 1.11 | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | 1.32 (0.85-1.63) FAIL | FAIL |
| Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 756 (0) | 41,811 (1) | 1.18 (0.96-1.34) | 0.957 | 0.49 | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | 0.92 (0.72-1.17) PASS | FAIL |

DDD (autism relative to each control, same cells; beside the class):

| contrast | cells | r_DDD (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | CrI log width (prior-dominated) | separate-fit ratio | future+3 (D4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autism vs. All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 756 | 0.97 (0.74-1.56) | 0.413 | 0.743 (no) | 0.96 | 0.90 (0.72-1.17) PASS |
| Autism vs. Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 756 | 0.97 (0.74-1.51) | 0.413 | 0.712 (no) | 0.97 | 0.90 (0.72-1.17) PASS |
| Autism vs. Intracranial Injury (S06) | 756 | 0.98 (0.74-1.52) | 0.455 | 0.722 (no) | 1.00 | 0.95 (0.75-1.23) PASS |
| Autism vs. Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 756 | 0.99 (0.75-1.63) | 0.469 | 0.768 (no) | 0.97 | 0.88 (0.71-1.14) PASS |
| Autism vs. Burns (T20-T32) | 612 | 0.86 (0.60-1.39) | 0.205 | 0.830 (no) | 0.86 | 0.82 (0.62-1.14) PASS |
| Autism vs. Poisoning (T36-T65) | 684 | 0.85 (0.53-1.68) | 0.282 | 1.156 (no) | 0.78 | 0.72 (0.49-1.29) PASS |
| Autism vs. Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 756 | 0.90 (0.63-1.75) | 0.314 | 1.022 (no) | 0.86 | 0.86 (0.64-1.31) PASS |

Secondary (classified, never change the reading):

| outcome | cells (lost) | events (min cell) | r (95% CrI) | class (rule) | future+3 (D4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skull or Facial Fracture (S02) | 648 (108) | 12,153 (1) | 1.16 (0.93-1.42) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 1.16 (0.96-1.39) PASS |
| Neck Fracture (S12) | 0 (756) | 48 (1) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: 18 retained cells < 20 | NOT TESTABLE |
| Rib or Thoracic Fracture (S22) | 180 (576) | 1,375 (1) | 0.95 (0.43-1.88) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 1.33 (0.71-2.31) PASS |
| Lumbar or Pelvic Fracture (S32) | 126 (630) | 1,063 (1) | 2.02 (1.09-3.58) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 0.80 (0.35-1.57) PASS |
| Shoulder or Upper-Arm Fracture (S42) | 756 (0) | 81,515 (6) | 1.12 (1.02-1.21) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 1.09 (0.97-1.16) FAIL |
| Forearm Fracture (S52) | 756 (0) | 199,788 (18) | 1.00 (0.92-1.10) | CONSISTENT | 1.01 (0.92-1.09) PASS |
| Wrist or Hand Fracture (S62) | 756 (0) | 103,688 (3) | 1.06 (0.86-1.19) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 1.11 (0.94-1.20) FAIL |
| Femur Fracture (S72) | 522 (234) | 4,737 (1) | 1.26 (0.81-1.77) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 1.32 (0.93-1.70) FAIL |
| Lower-Leg Fracture (S82) | 756 (0) | 48,362 (3) | 0.92 (0.73-1.08) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 1.06 (0.95-1.16) PASS |
| Foot Fracture (S92) | 738 (18) | 45,229 (2) | 0.98 (0.86-1.10) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 1.02 (0.91-1.13) PASS |
| Multiple-Region Fractures (T02) | 0 (756) | 71 () | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: zero patients in every cell | NOT TESTABLE |
| Other External Causes Incl. Drowning (T75) | 90 (666) | 778 (2) | 1.22 (0.72-2.23) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 0.65 (0.33-1.04) FAIL |

### SWE_B (report): external causes, children, SVOV, 3-year bands (width reference: SWE_A autism)

| outcome | cells (lost) | events (min cell) | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | CrI log width / ref | class (rule) | literal | 3347 order | future+3 (D4) | family (strict) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Accidents (V01-X59) | 1,134 (0) | 1,261,249 (57) | 1.03 (0.98-1.08) | 0.906 | 0.14 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 1.01 (0.94-1.06) PASS | PASS |
| Falls (W00-W19) | 1,134 (0) | 687,497 (34) | 1.02 (0.97-1.07) | 0.765 | 0.15 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 1.01 (0.96-1.06) PASS | PASS |
| Transport (V01-V99) | 1,134 (0) | 144,909 (6) | 0.96 (0.89-1.05) | 0.199 | 0.25 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 0.98 (0.89-1.12) FAIL | FAIL |

Secondary (classified, never change the reading):

| outcome | cells (lost) | events (min cell) | r (95% CrI) | class (rule) | future+3 (D4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drowning (W65-W74) | 0 (1,134) |  () | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: 0 retained cells < 20 | NOT TESTABLE |
| Dog Bite (W54) | 576 (558) | 4,082 (1) | 1.07 (0.82-1.36) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 1.17 (0.94-1.52) PASS |
| Accidental Poisoning (X40-X49) | 234 (900) | 1,870 (1) | 1.01 (0.70-1.48) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 1.03 (0.76-1.46) PASS |
| Smoke or Fire (X00-X09) | 144 (990) | 685 (1) | 1.39 (0.85-2.24) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 0.60 (0.27-1.05) FAIL |
| Hot Substances (X10-X19) | 558 (576) | 5,391 (1) | 0.86 (0.65-1.09) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 1.06 (0.85-1.33) PASS |
| Land Transport (V01-V89) | 1,134 (0) | 145,402 (6) | 0.96 (0.88-1.05) | CONSISTENT | 0.98 (0.89-1.12) FAIL |

### SWE_C (report): external causes, children, SV, 3-year bands (width reference: SWE_A autism)

| outcome | cells (lost) | events (min cell) | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | CrI log width / ref | class (rule) | literal | 3347 order | future+3 (D4) | family (strict) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Accidents (V01-X59) | 1,134 (0) | 112,625 (8) | 0.99 (0.89-1.06) | 0.371 | 0.26 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | 1.06 (1.00-1.12) FAIL | FAIL |
| Falls (W00-W19) | 1,134 (0) | 66,088 (3) | 0.99 (0.91-1.08) | 0.395 | 0.25 | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | 1.03 (0.96-1.12) PASS | PASS |
| Transport (V01-V99) | 1,116 (18) | 21,327 (1) | 1.02 (0.78-1.23) | 0.550 | 0.66 | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | 1.10 (0.84-1.25) PASS | PASS |

Secondary (classified, never change the reading):

| outcome | cells (lost) | events (min cell) | r (95% CrI) | class (rule) | future+3 (D4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drowning (W65-W74) | 0 (1,134) |  () | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: 0 retained cells < 20 | NOT TESTABLE |
| Dog Bite (W54) | 0 (1,134) |  () | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: 0 retained cells < 20 | NOT TESTABLE |
| Accidental Poisoning (X40-X49) | 54 (1,080) | 216 (1) | 1.63 (0.81-3.28) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 1.06 (0.56-1.91) PASS |
| Smoke or Fire (X00-X09) | 0 (1,134) |  () | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: 0 retained cells < 20 | NOT TESTABLE |
| Hot Substances (X10-X19) | 0 (1,134) |  () | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: 0 retained cells < 20 | NOT TESTABLE |
| Land Transport (V01-V89) | 1,116 (18) | 21,230 (1) | 0.98 (0.76-1.21) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 1.11 (0.86-1.26) FAIL |

### CZE_A (reading): CZE_MMR_counts model, 77 districts x 5-9 x 2019-2024 (closest cells)

| outcome | cells (lost) | events (min cell) | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | CrI log width / ref | class (rule) | literal | 3347 order | future+3 (D4) | family (strict) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autism (F84) [width reference] | 847 (231) | 12,025 (0) | 0.91 (0.27-3.37) | 0.444 | - | reference (prior-dominated) | - | - | 0.95 (0.26-3.58) PASS | PASS |
| All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 462 (1,078) | 809,851 (279) | 1.19 (0.32-4.48) | 0.602 | 1.04 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | NOT TESTABLE (production fit failed; post hoc stall-tolerant refit 1.18 (0.31-4.50), PASS if counted) | PASS |
| Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 462 (1,078) | 162,398 (55) | 1.08 (0.30-4.10) | 0.548 | 1.04 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | 1.10 (0.29-4.18) PASS | PASS |
| Intracranial Injury (S06) | 462 (1,078) | 12,753 (0) | 1.05 (0.29-3.87) | 0.529 | 1.03 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | 1.03 (0.28-3.84) PASS | PASS |
| Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 462 (1,078) | 121,952 (44) | 1.12 (0.31-4.18) | 0.568 | 1.03 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | 1.06 (0.28-4.04) PASS | PASS |
| Burns (T20-T32) | 462 (1,078) | 7,581 (2) | 1.10 (0.31-3.97) | 0.560 | 1.01 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | 1.03 (0.28-3.80) PASS | PASS |
| Poisoning (T36-T65) | 462 (1,078) | 16,639 (4) | 1.03 (0.29-3.82) | 0.519 | 1.03 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | 1.11 (0.31-4.04) PASS | PASS |
| Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 462 (1,078) | 17,862 (4) | 1.02 (0.28-3.81) | 0.510 | 1.04 | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | CONSISTENT | UNINFORMATIVE | 0.92 (0.24-3.57) PASS | PASS |

Secondary (classified, never change the reading):

| outcome | cells (lost) | events (min cell) | r (95% CrI) | class (rule) | future+3 (D4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skull or Facial Fracture (S02) | 462 (1,078) | 9,264 (1) | 0.93 (0.25-3.51) | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | 0.96 (0.26-3.65) PASS |
| Neck Fracture (S12) | 0 (1,078) | 0 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: zero patients in every cell | NOT TESTABLE |
| Rib or Thoracic Fracture (S22) | 462 (1,078) | 1,521 (0) | 0.86 (0.23-3.25) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 0.88 (0.24-3.29) PASS |
| Lumbar or Pelvic Fracture (S32) | 462 (1,078) | 714 (0) | 0.83 (0.22-3.12) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 0.84 (0.23-3.13) PASS |
| Shoulder or Upper-Arm Fracture (S42) | 462 (1,078) | 23,632 (6) | 1.03 (0.28-3.85) | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | 0.97 (0.25-3.71) PASS |
| Forearm Fracture (S52) | 462 (1,078) | 47,290 (15) | 1.06 (0.29-3.96) | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | 1.04 (0.28-3.96) PASS |
| Wrist or Hand Fracture (S62) | 462 (1,078) | 27,809 (4) | 1.08 (0.30-3.99) | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | 0.99 (0.26-3.77) PASS |
| Femur Fracture (S72) | 462 (1,078) | 1,219 (0) | 0.82 (0.22-3.15) | UNINFORMATIVE (b) thin | 0.88 (0.24-3.31) PASS |
| Lower-Leg Fracture (S82) | 462 (1,078) | 13,330 (3) | 1.05 (0.29-3.86) | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | 0.98 (0.26-3.69) PASS |
| Foot Fracture (S92) | 462 (1,078) | 15,051 (1) | 1.01 (0.28-3.78) | UNINFORMATIVE (d) prior-dominated | 0.93 (0.25-3.59) PASS |
| Multiple-Region Fractures (T02) | 0 (1,078) | 0 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: zero patients in every cell | NOT TESTABLE |
| Other External Causes Incl. Drowning (T75) | 0 (1,078) | 0 (0) | not fitted | UNINFORMATIVE (a) not fittable: zero patients in every cell | NOT TESTABLE |

## Design check (harm injection; descriptive, never a class)

| design | outcome | Asimov medians R = 1/2/3/5 | Asimov verdict | plasmode medians R = 1/2/3/5 | plasmode verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEU_A | Autism (F84) | 0.96/1.01/1.03/1.05 | PASS | 1.03/1.04/1.05/1.05 | PASS |
| DEU_A | All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 1.06/1.21/1.28/1.35 | PASS | 1.09/1.21/1.27/1.32 | PASS |
| DEU_A | Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 1.03/1.17/1.24/1.30 | PASS | 0.98/1.06/1.09/1.13 | PASS |
| DEU_A | Intracranial Injury (S06) | 1.01/1.15/1.21/1.28 | PASS | 1.02/1.09/1.12/1.16 | PASS |
| DEU_A | Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 1.02/1.16/1.22/1.29 | PASS | 1.22/1.29/1.33/1.36 | PASS |
| DEU_A | Burns (T20-T32) | 0.95/1.03/1.07/1.10 | PASS | 0.84/0.86/0.87/0.88 | FAIL |
| DEU_A | Poisoning (T36-T65) | 0.96/1.07/1.13/1.18 | PASS | 0.68/0.69/0.70/0.71 | FAIL |
| DEU_A | Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 0.96/1.06/1.10/1.15 | PASS | 0.90/0.91/0.91/0.92 | FAIL |
| DEU_B | Autism (F84) | 0.86/1.70/2.57/3.80 | PASS | 0.49/0.70/0.86/1.16 | FAIL |
| DEU_B | All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 1.01/1.96/2.82/4.47 | PASS | 1.12/2.27/3.49/5.96 | PASS |
| DEU_B | Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 0.98/1.91/2.76/4.40 | PASS | 1.09/2.17/3.45/5.90 | PASS |
| DEU_B | Intracranial Injury (S06) | 1.00/1.94/2.78/4.41 | PASS | 1.24/2.48/3.92/6.45 | PASS |
| DEU_B | Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 1.02/1.97/2.83/4.48 | PASS | 1.10/2.11/3.14/5.33 | PASS |
| DEU_B | Burns (T20-T32) | 1.07/2.06/2.94/4.64 | PASS | 0.69/1.34/2.08/3.49 | PASS |
| DEU_B | Poisoning (T36-T65) | 1.01/1.96/2.96/4.42 | PASS | 1.28/2.34/3.20/4.71 | PASS |
| DEU_B | Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 0.98/1.92/2.75/4.37 | PASS | 1.56/2.99/4.37/6.89 | PASS |
| SWE_A | Autism (F84) | 1.00/2.00/2.99/4.99 | PASS | 1.01/1.96/2.89/4.74 | PASS |
| SWE_A | All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 1.00/2.00/2.99/4.98 | PASS | 1.06/2.09/3.10/5.13 | PASS |
| SWE_A | Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 1.00/2.00/2.99/4.99 | PASS | 1.04/2.06/3.06/5.06 | PASS |
| SWE_A | Intracranial Injury (S06) | 1.00/2.00/2.99/4.98 | PASS | 1.01/1.97/2.94/4.89 | PASS |
| SWE_A | Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 1.00/2.00/2.99/4.98 | PASS | 1.04/2.07/3.09/5.11 | PASS |
| SWE_A | Burns (T20-T32) | 1.00/2.01/3.00/4.99 | PASS | 1.16/2.24/3.31/5.41 | PASS |
| SWE_A | Poisoning (T36-T65) | 1.01/2.01/3.00/4.99 | PASS | 1.38/2.64/3.80/5.97 | PASS |
| SWE_A | Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 1.00/2.00/2.99/4.98 | PASS | 1.18/2.24/3.21/4.79 | PASS |
| CZE_A | Autism (F84) | 1.00/1.11/1.17/1.23 | PASS | 0.91/1.01/1.06/1.12 | PASS |
| CZE_A | All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 1.19/1.26/1.29/1.33 | PASS | 1.19/1.26/1.29/1.33 | PASS |
| CZE_A | Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 1.11/1.17/1.21/1.24 | PASS | 1.08/1.15/1.18/1.22 | PASS |
| CZE_A | Intracranial Injury (S06) | 1.01/1.07/1.09/1.13 | PASS | 1.05/1.11/1.14/1.17 | PASS |
| CZE_A | Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 1.09/1.16/1.19/1.22 | PASS | 1.12/1.18/1.22/1.25 | PASS |
| CZE_A | Burns (T20-T32) | 1.01/1.06/1.09/1.12 | PASS | 1.10/1.17/1.21/1.25 | PASS |
| CZE_A | Poisoning (T36-T65) | 1.00/1.06/1.09/1.12 | PASS | 1.03/1.10/1.14/1.18 | PASS |
| CZE_A | Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 1.01/1.07/1.10/1.13 | PASS | 1.02/1.07/1.09/1.12 | PASS |

## Class stability (primary controls of the reading designs; descriptive)

| design | outcome | linear only | spline only | rho 0.85 | wide prior N(0, 1.2) | harm-centred prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEU_A | All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 1.09 (0.31-3.91) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.09 (0.31-3.91) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.09 (0.31-3.91) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.24 (0.16-9.98) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.32 (0.38-4.80) UNINFORMATIVE |
| DEU_A | Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 0.98 (0.28-3.51) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.98 (0.28-3.51) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.98 (0.28-3.50) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.96 (0.12-7.69) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.19 (0.34-4.31) UNINFORMATIVE |
| DEU_A | Intracranial Injury (S06) | 1.02 (0.28-3.74) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.02 (0.28-3.74) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.02 (0.28-3.76) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.05 (0.12-8.88) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.25 (0.34-4.60) UNINFORMATIVE |
| DEU_A | Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 1.22 (0.33-4.37) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.22 (0.33-4.37) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.22 (0.33-4.39) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.59 (0.18-12.10) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.48 (0.41-5.33) UNINFORMATIVE |
| DEU_A | Burns (T20-T32) | 0.84 (0.23-3.20) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.84 (0.23-3.20) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.89 (0.24-3.40) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.66 (0.08-6.21) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.04 (0.28-3.99) UNINFORMATIVE |
| DEU_A | Poisoning (T36-T65) | 0.68 (0.18-2.89) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.68 (0.18-2.89) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.80 (0.21-3.30) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.38 (0.05-4.88) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.87 (0.23-3.74) UNINFORMATIVE |
| DEU_A | Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 0.90 (0.23-3.70) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.90 (0.23-3.70) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.95 (0.24-3.82) UNINFORMATIVE | 0.74 (0.07-9.35) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.14 (0.28-4.70) UNINFORMATIVE |
| SWE_A | All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 1.06 (0.99-1.13) CONSISTENT | 1.03 (0.93-1.15) CONSISTENT | 1.05 (0.96-1.14) CONSISTENT | 1.06 (0.98-1.13) CONSISTENT | 1.06 (0.98-1.13) CONSISTENT |
| SWE_A | Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 1.05 (0.95-1.15) CONSISTENT | 1.04 (0.89-1.21) CONSISTENT | 1.04 (0.92-1.18) CONSISTENT | 1.05 (0.94-1.15) CONSISTENT | 1.05 (0.95-1.16) CONSISTENT |
| SWE_A | Intracranial Injury (S06) | 1.01 (0.92-1.11) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.01 (0.86-1.20) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.03 (0.86-1.22) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.01 (0.91-1.12) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.01 (0.91-1.12) UNINFORMATIVE |
| SWE_A | Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 1.05 (0.98-1.11) CONSISTENT | 1.02 (0.92-1.12) CONSISTENT | 1.04 (0.96-1.12) CONSISTENT | 1.04 (0.97-1.11) CONSISTENT | 1.04 (0.97-1.11) CONSISTENT |
| SWE_A | Burns (T20-T32) | 1.16 (0.94-1.44) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.08 (0.74-1.59) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.17 (0.76-1.75) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.16 (0.92-1.45) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.17 (0.92-1.45) UNINFORMATIVE |
| SWE_A | Poisoning (T36-T65) | 1.39 (1.12-1.73) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.37 (0.91-2.06) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.33 (0.83-2.04) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.40 (0.94-2.08) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.40 (0.95-2.05) UNINFORMATIVE |
| SWE_A | Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 1.19 (1.05-1.34) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.03 (0.83-1.29) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.14 (0.87-1.46) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.18 (0.96-1.34) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.18 (0.96-1.34) UNINFORMATIVE |
| CZE_A | All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) | 1.19 (0.32-4.48) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.19 (0.32-4.48) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.19 (0.32-4.48) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.63 (0.20-14.91) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.47 (0.40-5.56) UNINFORMATIVE |
| CZE_A | Head Injuries (S00-S09) | 1.08 (0.30-4.10) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.08 (0.30-4.10) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.08 (0.30-4.10) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.28 (0.16-11.73) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.34 (0.36-5.09) UNINFORMATIVE |
| CZE_A | Intracranial Injury (S06) | 1.05 (0.29-3.87) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.05 (0.29-3.87) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.05 (0.29-3.87) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.15 (0.15-9.52) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.28 (0.35-4.76) UNINFORMATIVE |
| CZE_A | Fractures (S02-S92, T02) | 1.12 (0.31-4.18) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.12 (0.31-4.18) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.12 (0.31-4.18) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.38 (0.18-12.01) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.38 (0.38-5.17) UNINFORMATIVE |
| CZE_A | Burns (T20-T32) | 1.10 (0.31-3.97) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.10 (0.31-3.97) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.10 (0.31-3.97) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.29 (0.19-9.86) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.34 (0.38-4.84) UNINFORMATIVE |
| CZE_A | Poisoning (T36-T65) | 1.03 (0.29-3.82) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.03 (0.29-3.82) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.03 (0.29-3.82) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.11 (0.15-9.37) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.26 (0.35-4.71) UNINFORMATIVE |
| CZE_A | Foreign Body (T15-T19) | 1.02 (0.28-3.81) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.02 (0.28-3.81) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.02 (0.28-3.81) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.06 (0.13-9.27) UNINFORMATIVE | 1.25 (0.34-4.70) UNINFORMATIVE |

## Reading

- **Germany PCV (DEU_PCV, DEU_A): UNINFORMATIVE** - no primary injury control is informative; no conclusion about bias. (Literal classes: CONSISTENT; 3347 class order: UNINFORMATIVE.)
- **Sweden PCV (SWE_PCV_corrected, SWE_A): CONSISTENT** - every informative primary injury control is compatible with r = 1; no non-specific bias detected at this precision (this does not validate the autism estimate). CONSISTENT: INJ_ALL, HEAD_S00_S09, FRACTURES. (Literal classes: CONSISTENT; 3347 class order: CONSISTENT.)
- **Czechia MMR (CZE_MMR_counts model, CZE_A closest cells): UNINFORMATIVE** - no primary injury control is informative; no conclusion about bias. (Literal classes: CONSISTENT; 3347 class order: UNINFORMATIVE.)
- (beside) **DEU_PCV_rebuilt (DEU_B): CONSISTENT** - every informative primary injury control is compatible with r = 1; no non-specific bias detected at this precision (this does not validate the autism estimate). CONSISTENT: INJ_ALL, HEAD_S00_S09, S06, FRACTURES, BURNS_T20_T32, POISONING_T36_T65, FOREIGN_BODY_T15_T19. (Literal classes: CONSISTENT; 3347 class order: CONSISTENT.)
- (beside) **Swedish external causes SVOV (SWE_B): CONSISTENT** - every informative primary injury control is compatible with r = 1; no non-specific bias detected at this precision (this does not validate the autism estimate). CONSISTENT: ALL_ACCIDENTS, FALLS, TRANSPORT. (Literal classes: CONSISTENT; 3347 class order: CONSISTENT.)
- (beside) **Swedish external causes SV (SWE_C): CONSISTENT** - every informative primary injury control is compatible with r = 1; no non-specific bias detected at this precision (this does not validate the autism estimate). CONSISTENT: ALL_ACCIDENTS. (Literal classes: CONSISTENT; 3347 class order: CONSISTENT.)

- DEU_A secondary: 12 UNINFORMATIVE
- DEU_B secondary: 1 BIAS SIGNAL, 5 CONSISTENT, 6 UNINFORMATIVE; BIAS SIGNAL Other External Causes Incl. Drowning (T75) 0.63 (0.37-0.99) (r < 1 (protective direction))
- DEU_B future+3 (D4): PASS 21 of 21 fitted outcomes
- SWE_A secondary: 1 CONSISTENT, 11 UNINFORMATIVE
- SWE_A: 95% CrI excludes 1 but classed UNINFORMATIVE by the rule: Lumbar or Pelvic Fracture (S32) 2.02 (1.09-3.58) (r > 1 (harm direction); (b) thin); Shoulder or Upper-Arm Fracture (S42) 1.12 (1.02-1.21) (r > 1 (harm direction); (b) thin)
- SWE_A future+3 (D4): PASS 20 of 25 fitted outcomes; FAIL: Poisoning (T36-T65), Shoulder or Upper-Arm Fracture (S42), Wrist or Hand Fracture (S62), Femur Fracture (S72), Other External Causes Incl. Drowning (T75)
- SWE_B secondary: 1 CONSISTENT, 5 UNINFORMATIVE
- SWE_B future+3 (D4): PASS 5 of 8 fitted outcomes; FAIL: Transport (V01-V99), Smoke or Fire (X00-X09), Land Transport (V01-V89)
- SWE_C secondary: 6 UNINFORMATIVE
- SWE_C future+3 (D4): PASS 3 of 5 fitted outcomes; FAIL: All Accidents (V01-X59), Land Transport (V01-V89)
- CZE_A secondary: 12 UNINFORMATIVE
- CZE_A: placebo-family fits that failed in the production count routine (recorded, member not fitted): All Injuries (S00-T98 Excl. T78, T80-T88) future3
- CZE_A future+3 (D4): PASS 16 of 16 fitted outcomes
- DEU_A: the autism harm-injection refit reproduces the gate record for DEU_PCV (Asimov medians R = 1/2/3/5 0.962/1.009/1.030/1.050; max |difference| 0.0e+00)
- DEU_B: the autism harm-injection refit reproduces the gate record for DEU_PCV_rebuilt (Asimov medians R = 1/2/3/5 0.862/1.699/2.568/3.798; max |difference| 4.5e-12)
- SWE_A: the autism harm-injection refit reproduces the gate record for SWE_PCV_corrected (Asimov medians R = 1/2/3/5 0.996/1.997/2.995/4.992; max |difference| 1.1e-13)

## Run history

- Rule written 2026-09-29 22:47 CDT (sha256 c19a22db...0cde8e); it never changed (every receipt and fit-log line).
- Run 1 (started 2026-09-29 22:54 CDT, script snapshot qa/negative_controls_20260925/snapshots/07_analysis_code/3381_injury_negative_controls_europe_round2.fit_fd77b1507030.py): reproduce, deu_A, deu_B, swe_A completed with receipts; cze_A finished its actual count fits, then stopped in the placebo family because the production count fit (czech_count_extension.fit_one via global_placebo_family.count_curve) raised a Laplace line-search failure on one variant (INJ_ALL future+3, linear trend, rho 0, at log r = -2.7) and the 3381 pool raised instead of recording it. No cze_A receipt was written.
- Run 2 (started 2026-09-29 23:40 CDT, script snapshot ...fit_a042ba462c78.py): the pool records a failed family fit and leaves the member NOT fitted, the convention of global_placebo_family.run; swe_B and swe_C fitted after the external-cause download completed; cze_A reused run 1's actual count fits (same rule hash, identical inputs.json records; logged and recorded in the receipt) and fitted the placebo family and harm checks.
- Post hoc, descriptive only: the failed family member was refitted with global_block_tools.count_curve (the production count gate's routine; a zero-start retry resolved the stalled grid point). It is reported beside the D4 verdict, which stays NOT TESTABLE for that outcome.
- After the fits, only the report layer changed (figure labels and range, download-table URLs, notes, this history); fit code and block construction are identical to run 2 (input hashes of every cached fit are re-checked at report time).
- The Swedish external-cause series were downloaded with /diagnos/<ID>/ after the request entry's /yttreorsak/<ID>/ path was found to be ignored by the API (it returns all causes); no file from the ignored-filter query was kept.

## Caveats

- Care-use outcomes, not incidence: Germany counts inpatient discharge episodes (not persons); Sweden counts unique patients per year and code in inpatient and/or specialised outpatient care (composites of several ids are sums of per-id patient counts, so a child with two codes counts twice); Czechia counts unique patients per year with the code in the main position in any publicly reimbursed care (group codes 110 / 111 are unique patients; three-character sums are patient-code counts).
- The Swedish all-injury control subtracts T78 and T80-T88 patient counts from the chapter count; because patients are counted once per id, this is a lower bound on the patients with another injury.
- Czechia: the injury cells (5-9) are the closest to, not the same as, the autism cells (4-6 / 7-10); the exposure is re-averaged over the band's five cohorts, and the width reference is the autism fit on its own 2019-2024 cells. Prague = okres 0100 plus 0101-010A; patients with unknown residence (0999) are excluded.
- Sweden's F84 series is dense (derived 129,104 patient-years on the 756 cells), so most single injury codes are THIN by the round-1 rule even when every cell has several patients; the 3347 class order (no THIN) is reported beside it.
- Germany 2000-2023 comes from pruned GENESIS table states (parents carry true block totals: verified on the held F80-F89 and F00-F99 cells of 2024); 2024 comes from the held full cube.
- External-cause coding in Swedish specialised outpatient care varies by county and year (Socialstyrelsen metadata); the SV series is inpatient only.
- Gaussian working likelihood on log rates (Germany, Sweden) treats small counts approximately; the count model (Czechia) uses a Laplace approximation.