# 3380 - UK injury negative controls, round 2: the UK autism designs on newly acquired injury data

**Documented reading (primary outcome of each control; cell set S = same-layout pair with the autism refit on the same cells as reference, E = extension with the published autism as reference; one class per row, no vote).** England Rotavirus: C1 S CONSISTENT, r 0.99 (0.57-1.57); C1 E UNINFORMATIVE, r 0.96 (0.69-1.29); C2 S CONSISTENT, r 0.98 (0.53-1.60); C2 E UNINFORMATIVE, r 0.98 (0.69-1.34); C3 S CONSISTENT, r 1.00 (0.87-1.16); C3 E CONSISTENT, r 1.06 (0.94-1.19) | Scotland Rotavirus: C4 S UNINFORMATIVE, r 0.92 (0.26-3.05); C4 E CONSISTENT, r 1.11 (0.42-2.75); C5 S UNINFORMATIVE, r 0.75 (0.22-2.42); C5 E UNINFORMATIVE, r 0.75 (0.22-2.42) | Northern Ireland Rotavirus: C7 S CONSISTENT, r 1.02 (0.37-2.04); C7 E UNINFORMATIVE, r 1.16 (0.48-2.17) | England UTLA MMR (report-only block): C6 S UNINFORMATIVE, r 1.29 (0.38-4.49); C6 E SEE S (collapsed), r = S.

Primary estimates: 7 UNINFORMATIVE, 6 CONSISTENT, 0 BIAS SIGNAL, 1 collapsed to S (of 14). Secondary rows: 30 UNINFORMATIVE, 22 CONSISTENT, 1 BIAS SIGNAL (of 53). Rows whose 95% CrI excludes 1, whatever their class: 1.

BIAS SIGNAL rows: C1 S Poisoning (T36-T65) (primary) 0.41 (0.19-0.85), r < 1 (protective direction).

Generated by `07_analysis_code/3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.py` (every number below is computed by that script and written to `3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.csv` / `3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.json`; cell-level inputs of the primary rows in `3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2_cells.csv`). Figure: `08_figures/3380_injury_negative_controls_uk_round2.png`. Fits and receipts: `project_results/negative_controls_3330/3380/fits`. Rule `qa/negative_controls_20260925/3380_rule.json` SHA-256 `c1fd753d63366cd42afc7867b31e40c8d11ba589d7607b0b0224ced073e1d62c`. Status: falsification audit; no pool weight; nothing in the hierarchy changes.

## Per-control results (primary outcome)

| Context | Control | Set | Cells (zero dropped) | Events | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | Class | Why | Autism on the same cells | Width ratio (vs reference / published) | Future+3 | DDD autism / injury | P(DDD>1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England Rotavirus | C1 HES Diagnosis | S | 23 (0) | 612,384 | 0.99 (0.57-1.57) | 0.489 | CONSISTENT | - | 0.89 (0.53-1.38) | 1.07 / 6.11 | PASS 1.12 (0.67-1.93) | 0.90 (0.45-1.82) | 0.380 |
| England Rotavirus | C1 HES Diagnosis | E | 38 (0) | 1,062,697 | 0.96 (0.69-1.29) | 0.384 | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 3.78x the reference (> 2.5) | E row: published posterior | 3.78 / 3.78 | PASS 1.04 (0.72-1.55) | 0.99 (0.72-1.39) | 0.463 |
| England Rotavirus | C2 HES External Cause | S | 21 (0) | 520,921 | 0.98 (0.53-1.60) | 0.463 | CONSISTENT | - | 0.91 (0.52-1.43) | 1.09 / 6.62 | PASS 1.17 (0.68-2.15) | 0.93 (0.44-1.98) | 0.421 |
| England Rotavirus | C2 HES External Cause | E | 35 (0) | 958,293 | 0.98 (0.69-1.34) | 0.462 | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 3.99x the reference (> 2.5) | E row: published posterior | 3.99 / 3.99 | PASS 1.10 (0.74-1.70) | 0.96 (0.70-1.38) | 0.397 |
| England Rotavirus | C3 STATS19 England | S | 112 (0) | 100,332 | 1.00 (0.87-1.16) | 0.511 | CONSISTENT | - | 0.97 (0.89-1.06) | 1.62 / 1.74 | PASS 0.99 (0.88-1.12) | 0.97 (0.82-1.15) | 0.359 |
| England Rotavirus | C3 STATS19 England | E | 195 (0) | 159,554 | 1.06 (0.94-1.19) | 0.836 | CONSISTENT | - | E row: published posterior | 1.38 / 1.38 | PASS 1.04 (0.95-1.14) | 0.89 (0.77-1.02) | 0.052 |
| Scotland Rotavirus | C4 PHS Admissions | S | 306 (0) | 38,275 | 0.92 (0.26-3.05) | 0.446 | UNINFORMATIVE | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.48 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | 1.23 (0.31-4.45) | 0.93 / 0.93 | PASS 0.93 (0.28-3.21) | 1.34 (0.21-8.20) | 0.623 |
| Scotland Rotavirus | C4 PHS Admissions | E | 960 (0) | 65,390 | 1.11 (0.42-2.75) | 0.585 | CONSISTENT | - | E row: published posterior | 0.70 / 0.70 | PASS 1.05 (0.41-2.65) | 1.40 (0.26-6.69) | 0.656 |
| Scotland Rotavirus | C5 STATS19 Scotland | S | 490 (0) | 19,554 | 0.75 (0.22-2.42) | 0.317 | UNINFORMATIVE | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.41 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | 1.55 (0.38-5.33) | 0.91 / 0.91 | PASS 0.68 (0.20-2.16) | 2.06 (0.33-11.93) | 0.783 |
| Scotland Rotavirus | C5 STATS19 Scotland | E | 512 (0) | 19,966 | 0.75 (0.22-2.42) | 0.318 | UNINFORMATIVE | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.41 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | E row: published posterior | 0.91 / 0.91 | PASS 0.68 (0.21-2.16) | 2.06 (0.33-11.92) | 0.783 |
| England UTLA MMR (report-only block) | C6 UTLA Admissions 0-4 | S | 1020 (0) | 257,170 | 1.29 (0.38-4.49) | 0.657 | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 2.51x the reference (> 2.5); prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.46 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | none (ages 0-4 vs 5-12) | 2.51 / 2.51 | PASS 0.95 (0.31-3.49) | 0.42 (0.11-1.57) | 0.102 |
| England UTLA MMR (report-only block) | C6 UTLA Admissions 0-4 | E | 1020 | 257,170 | not fitted | | SEE S (collapsed) | not fitted: E collapses to S: the m24 labels 2008-2010 filled from Fingertips 30309 cannot be used because MMR1@5y and DTaP@24m (same rule) exist only for labels 2011-2022; 0 extra cells | none (ages 0-4 vs 5-12) | | | | |
| Northern Ireland Rotavirus | C7 PSNI Casualties | S | 22 (0) | 10,078 | 1.02 (0.37-2.04) | 0.520 | CONSISTENT | - | 0.65 (0.29-1.32) | 1.11 / 6.16 | PASS 1.16 (0.55-1.92) | 0.64 (0.22-2.15) | 0.223 |
| Northern Ireland Rotavirus | C7 PSNI Casualties | E | 24 (0) | 11,003 | 1.16 (0.48-2.17) | 0.650 | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 5.47x the reference (> 2.5) | E row: published posterior | 5.47 / 5.47 | PASS 1.12 (0.53-1.85) | 0.88 (0.46-2.11) | 0.364 |

## Interpretation rule (documented)

Rule file `qa/negative_controls_20260925/3380_rule.json`, SHA-256 `c1fd753d63366cd42afc7867b31e40c8d11ba589d7607b0b0224ced073e1d62c` (file bytes; recorded beside it in `3380_rule.sha256`: c1fd753d63366cd42afc7867b31e40c8d11ba589d7607b0b0224ced073e1d62c). 'written': 2026-09-29 22:20 CDT (2026-09-30T03:20Z), after the approved downloads and before any likelihood, posterior, placebo, DDD or harm-injection gate of an injury outcome, and before any refit of a matching autism block, was computed by this task (3380). File modification time 2026-09-29T22:21:01-05:00; first fit started 2026-09-29T22:41:03-05:00 (`autism__ENG_RV_backfill__published.json`): rule predates every fit: True. 182 of 182 fit and gate records carry this hash, written at fit time; none carries another hash or none.

- Classes as round 1 (3333_rule.json): UNINFORMATIVE if (a) the injury 95% CrI log width exceeds 2.5x the reference's, (b) thin (< 10 events: not fitted; Gaussian block with > 20% zero cells; < 100 events fitted), or (c) prior-dominated (log width >= 0.8 x 2.7171); otherwise CONSISTENT if the CrI includes 1; otherwise BIAS SIGNAL with its direction.
- Width reference: S rows the autism refit on the same cells (C5: identical cells = the published SCT_RV; C6 has no same cells, published ENG_MMR_UTLA); E rows the published autism posterior. The ratio against the published posterior is reported for every row.
- Future+3 placebo, DDD (contrast of separate fits under independence), stability and the harm-injection gate are reported beside the class and never change it.

## Data (downloaded 2026-09-30 UTC; approved in DOWNLOAD_REQUEST.md)

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| raw/uk_hes_apc_extcause/hosp-epis-stat-admi-ext-caus-98-99-tab.xls | 157,696 | `0fb938e852c359bd...` | https://files.digital.nhs.uk/publicationimport/pub03xxx/pub03992/hosp-epis-stat-admi-ext-caus-98-99-tab.xls |
| raw/uk_hes_apc_extcause/hosp-epis-stat-admi-ext-caus-99-00-tab.xls | 97,280 | `789c611871114a2e...` | https://files.digital.nhs.uk/publicationimport/pub03xxx/pub03973/hosp-epis-stat-admi-ext-caus-99-00-tab.xls |
| raw/uk_hes_apc_extcause/hosp-epis-stat-admi-ext-cause-2024-25-tab.xlsx | 154,296 | `89f55d26539135b4...` | https://files.digital.nhs.uk/8C/E50005/hosp-epis-stat-admi-ext-cause-2024-25-tab.xlsx |
| raw/uk_dft_stats19/dft-road-casualty-statistics-casualty-1979-latest-published-year.csv | 989,284,743 | `c7d390b571131e3e...` | https://data.dft.gov.uk/road-accidents-safety-data/dft-road-casualty-statistics-casualty-1979-latest-published-year.csv |
| raw/uk_dft_stats19/dft-road-casualty-statistics-collision-1979-latest-published-year.csv | 1,534,937,928 | `7b80a3a8d9df7b54...` | https://data.dft.gov.uk/road-accidents-safety-data/dft-road-casualty-statistics-collision-1979-latest-published-year.csv |
| raw/uk_phs_unintentional_injuries/ca2019_pop_est_20072026.csv | 1,924,907 | `5f20f82f5e44f297...` | https://www.opendata.nhs.scot/dataset/7f010430-6ce1-4813-b25c-f7f335bdc4dc/resource/09ebfefb-33f4-4f6a-8312-2d14e2b02ace/download/ca2019_pop_est_20072026.csv |
| raw/uk_phs_unintentional_injuries/ui_admissions_2025.csv | 47,797,620 | `7ea8bbffe6570f04...` | https://www.opendata.nhs.scot/dataset/b0135993-3d8a-4f3b-afcf-e01f4d52137c/resource/aee43295-2a13-48f6-bf05-92769ca7c6cf/download/ui_admissions_2025.csv |
| raw/uk_fingertips_injury/fingertips_90832_utla502.csv | 2,330,696 | `064fb3c829f0223d...` | https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/api/all_data/csv/by_indicator_id?indicator_ids=90832&child_area_type_id=502 |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2013csv.csv | 423,523 | `a78475f80fa88d53...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/f2b66566-e00e-4e63-b32c-14de98dd874e/resource/5863a111-b42c-4bf1-852f-eed72c1ac6ee/download/casualty2013csv.csv |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2014csv.csv | 327,960 | `17cb685dfeeac1e1...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/931808fd-37ad-419d-84fc-fa783df248e8/resource/e988f6af-f889-4a6e-93aa-25e2348f6f90/download/casualty2014csv.csv |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2015csv.csv | 340,200 | `aeca83fec416c26b...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/8ba7afe3-3c15-4a92-9d14-b8fe2bae9bf8/resource/18352522-ca6a-4f8e-b54b-c86311917ad9/download/casualty2015csv.csv |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2016.csv | 334,931 | `c7df9f081a9c1e4f...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/4ddb6259-b47c-44e6-ac91-6d95dd527d26/resource/12727c4a-53ba-4d84-a756-59b1fe632218/download/casualty2016.csv |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2017.csv | 320,564 | `f74e56a75aec5648...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/e8c982c3-a2c0-4a8b-8c1d-630a30201b68/resource/98032332-3e21-4512-a8f0-1056486e4918/download/casualty2017.csv |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2018.csv | 304,505 | `4afc308521f8d591...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/186353d3-8c98-48d6-8bd9-0422b9b80c03/resource/40daa4fd-428b-4494-bdcb-ad238e722f56/download/casualty2018.csv |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2019.csv | 309,692 | `3ea1a820ef7e7a9a...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/4599b46b-5e75-4ca9-b7e2-9107d0cdd9cf/resource/09bf03b8-058e-48d8-ad42-647b60a42ffc/download/casualty2019.csv |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2020.csv | 225,961 | `e27beb8c3e7b9e79...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/4cac1f60-c872-4c0c-b307-cada52b39fad/resource/4f6972b0-a6e2-4ac2-875a-877b9e3d34a7/download/casualty2020.csv |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2021.csv | 250,867 | `f9bddd496381600a...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/9f012abc-02bb-474f-ad1e-38af268e8743/resource/ba608fe8-0d45-44b5-bfde-fa95c4d0b137/download/casualty2021.csv |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2022.csv | 273,827 | `47e978da85008795...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/e352398b-f32c-4f0a-ad15-5bce7448780d/resource/f092d9eb-49b2-4fd3-9144-dcfdc3872569/download/casualty2022.csv |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2023.csv | 278,649 | `d1818d986cb9055f...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/d484e8d7-d88a-41e5-8ccf-9ff60f637cc6/resource/ae96eabe-dd90-460c-97c4-36830bccd49b/download/casualty2023.csv |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2024.csv | 261,588 | `88633f800a7856d0...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/bba6af11-b283-432e-8155-c6af9e0da461/resource/c092f66c-f877-4b6d-84b9-50d8f61065b8/download/casualty2024.csv |
| raw/uk_psni_rtc/casualty2025.csv | 274,966 | `dff32af63761ad26...` | https://admin.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/e5ad2f7f-091b-4a9f-b563-e2291cadd464/resource/b0dbbf26-aa0e-479c-a744-5900f942ae29/download/casualty2025.csv |
| raw/uk_ons_mye/myebtablesuk20112024.xlsx | 47,036,552 | `321f27261c9cf110...` | https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland/mid2011tomid2024/myebtablesuk20112024.xlsx |

- STATS19 (casualties 2010-2025 aged <= 20 or missing age): 576,807 rows; 0 without a collision record; England by police force 1-55: 522,839 (522,839 with an E-coded collision LA, 0 other or blank); Scotland with an S12 collision LA: 29,444; Scottish-force casualties without an S12 code (unallocated, dropped): 0; S12 codes without a council key: 0; age missing (excluded): England 46,831, Scotland 191.
- HES: 3-character sums equal the published block rows (S00-S09, T20-T32, T36-T50; bands 1-4, 5-9, 10-14) on 117 cells, max |difference| 0. The 1998/99-2011/12 tables publish only "Age 0-14" and are not used; 2003/04 (both tables) and 2019/20 (external cause) were not located by discovery.
- Fingertips 90832: 2253 persons rows, 151 area codes -> 147 harmonised units; 9 rows without a Count (suppressed or not presented).
- Denominators: ONS MYEB1 mid-2011..mid-2024 (England and Northern Ireland persons, single ages); PHS council estimates (Scotland admissions); SCT_RV pupils (Scotland STATS19, identical cells); Fingertips denominators.

## Autism reproduction (required before any row is classified)

| Block | Cells | Refit | Stored | max abs d log-lik | Published | Future+3 refit | Stored future+3 | Validated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENG_RV_backfill | 128 | 0.943 (0.864-1.021) | 0.943 (0.864-1.021) | 1.4e-10 | 0.94 (0.86-1.02) | 1.000 (0.922-1.079) | 1.000 (0.922-1.079) | yes |
| NIR_RV | 155 | 1.012 (0.878-1.155) | 1.012 (0.878-1.155) | 0.0e+00 | 1.01 (0.88-1.16) | 1.053 (0.939-1.183) | 1.053 (0.939-1.183) | yes |
| SCT_RV | 490 | 1.551 (0.376-5.333) | 1.551 (0.376-5.333) | 1.4e-09 | 1.55 (0.38-5.31) | 1.699 (0.454-5.276) | 1.699 (0.454-5.276) | yes |
| ENG_MMR_UTLA | 3675 | 0.533 (0.362-0.965) | 0.533 (0.362-0.965) | 2.7e-09 | 0.53 (0.36-0.96) | 0.450 (0.341-0.625) | 0.450 (0.341-0.625) | yes |

## Autism refitted on the same cells (cell set S references)

| Control | Autism cells | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | Future+3 (reference) | Future+3 | Construction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 HES Diagnosis | 23 | 0.89 (0.53-1.38) | 0.310 | 1.08 (0.62-1.92) | PASS | DfE ASD band sums / pupils on the HES band x FY layout (census = FY + 1), England model with its own DfE era terms |
| C2 HES External Cause | 21 | 0.91 (0.52-1.43) | 0.340 | 1.06 (0.59-1.99) | PASS | DfE ASD band sums / pupils on the HES band x FY layout (census = FY + 1), England model with its own DfE era terms |
| C3 STATS19 England | 112 | 0.97 (0.89-1.06) | 0.262 | 1.02 (0.94-1.11) | PASS | ENG_RV_backfill block restricted to census years 2011-2024 (its own spec, scenarios and nuisance) |
| C4 PHS Admissions | 306 | 1.23 (0.31-4.45) | 0.617 | 1.27 (0.33-4.56) | PASS | SCT_RV unsuppressed records of census years 2015-2024 (same council-years; ages 5-18, pupils) |
| C5 STATS19 Scotland | 490 | 1.55 (0.38-5.33) | 0.736 | 1.70 (0.45-5.28) | PASS | identical cells: the published SCT_RV fit (490 council-years) |
| C6 UTLA Admissions 0-4 | - | none | | | | no same cells (ages 0-4 vs 5-12) |
| C7 PSNI Casualties | 22 | 0.65 (0.29-1.32) | 0.118 | 1.18 (0.68-1.79) | PASS | NI autism prevalence, equal-weight mean over the band grades, NIR_RV exposure, nuisance and era terms |

## Every row

### C1 England HES admissions, primary diagnosis (UK-ENG-HES-DIAG-AGEBAND; matching ENG_RV_backfill)

| Set | Outcome | Role | Spec | Cells (zero dropped) | Events | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | Class | Literal (a) | Why | Future+3 | DDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | Injuries, foreign bodies, burns, frostbite (S00-T35) | primary | primary | 23 (0) | 612,384 | 0.99 (0.57-1.57) | 0.489 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.90 (0.45-1.82) |
| S | Injury and poisoning (S00-T65) | secondary composite | primary | 23 (0) | 688,215 | 0.81 (0.47-1.30) | 0.192 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 1.10 (0.55-2.23) |
| S | Head injury (S00-S09) | category | primary | 23 (0) | 128,622 | 1.12 (0.60-1.82) | 0.656 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.80 (0.39-1.70) |
| S | Fractures (S02, S12, S22 ... S92, T02) | category | primary | 23 (0) | 307,481 | 0.97 (0.54-1.55) | 0.449 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.92 (0.46-1.90) |
| S | Foreign body (T15-T19) | category | primary | 23 (0) | 37,697 | 0.75 (0.44-1.19) | 0.113 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 1.18 (0.59-2.35) |
| S | Burns and corrosions (T20-T32) | category | primary | 23 (0) | 16,432 | 0.94 (0.47-1.64) | 0.421 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.95 (0.44-2.14) |
| S | Poisoning (T36-T65) | category | primary | 23 (0) | 75,831 | 0.41 (0.19-0.85) | 0.008 | BIAS SIGNAL (r < 1 (protective direction)) | BIAS SIGNAL | - | PASS | 2.15 (0.90-5.28) |
| S | Drowning and submersion (T75.1) | category | primary | 23 (0) | 411 | 0.70 (0.31-1.42) | 0.163 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | FAIL | 1.28 (0.53-3.24) |
| S | Injuries, foreign bodies, burns, frostbite (S00-T35) | primary | era_analog | 23 (0) | 612,384 | 0.99 (0.57-1.57) | 0.489 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.90 (0.45-1.82) |
| E | Injuries, foreign bodies, burns, frostbite (S00-T35) | primary | primary | 38 (0) | 1,062,697 | 0.96 (0.69-1.29) | 0.384 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 3.78x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.99 (0.72-1.39) |
| E | Injury and poisoning (S00-T65) | secondary composite | primary | 38 (0) | 1,197,050 | 0.92 (0.66-1.25) | 0.285 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 3.81x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 1.03 (0.75-1.44) |
| E | Head injury (S00-S09) | category | primary | 38 (0) | 292,169 | 1.03 (0.70-1.41) | 0.561 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 4.17x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.92 (0.66-1.35) |
| E | Fractures (S02, S12, S22 ... S92, T02) | category | primary | 38 (0) | 431,374 | 0.95 (0.66-1.31) | 0.386 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 4.09x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.99 (0.71-1.44) |
| E | Foreign body (T15-T19) | category | primary | 38 (0) | 82,952 | 0.93 (0.68-1.26) | 0.318 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 3.64x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 1.01 (0.74-1.39) |
| E | Burns and corrosions (T20-T32) | category | primary | 38 (0) | 57,552 | 0.94 (0.66-1.31) | 0.365 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 4.14x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 1.00 (0.71-1.45) |
| E | Poisoning (T36-T65) | category | primary | 38 (0) | 134,353 | 0.81 (0.45-1.35) | 0.211 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 6.52x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 1.16 (0.69-2.09) |
| E | Drowning and submersion (T75.1) | category | primary | 38 (0) | 1,193 | 0.93 (0.53-1.64) | 0.402 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 6.80x the reference (> 2.5) | FAIL | 1.01 (0.57-1.80) |
| E | Injuries, foreign bodies, burns, frostbite (S00-T35) | primary | era_analog | 38 (0) | 1,062,697 | 1.02 (0.70-1.44) | 0.545 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 4.33x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.92 (0.65-1.36) |

### C2 England HES admissions, external cause (UK-ENG-HES-EXTCAUSE-AGEBAND; matching ENG_RV_backfill)

| Set | Outcome | Role | Spec | Cells (zero dropped) | Events | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | Class | Literal (a) | Why | Future+3 | DDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | Unintentional external causes (V01-X59 excl. X30-X39) | primary | primary | 21 (0) | 520,921 | 0.98 (0.53-1.60) | 0.463 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.93 (0.44-1.98) |
| S | Unintentional + assault + undetermined intent | secondary composite | primary | 21 (0) | 531,043 | 0.97 (0.53-1.59) | 0.459 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.93 (0.45-1.99) |
| S | Land transport (V01-V89) | category | primary | 21 (0) | 58,858 | 1.11 (0.60-1.82) | 0.650 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.82 (0.39-1.75) |
| S | Falls (W00-W19) | category | primary | 21 (0) | 240,288 | 0.91 (0.48-1.53) | 0.367 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 1.00 (0.47-2.18) |
| S | Dog bite (W54) | category | primary | 21 (0) | 9,664 | 1.07 (0.51-1.92) | 0.587 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.84 (0.38-2.01) |
| S | Foreign body entering an orifice (W44) | category | primary | 21 (0) | 29,306 | 0.75 (0.42-1.22) | 0.120 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 1.21 (0.58-2.53) |
| S | Drowning (W65-W74) | category | primary | 21 (0) | 446 | 0.94 (0.38-2.07) | 0.442 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | FAIL | 0.96 (0.37-2.66) |
| S | Accidental poisoning (X40-X49) | category | primary | 21 (0) | 13,267 | 0.73 (0.38-1.28) | 0.140 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 1.23 (0.57-2.75) |
| S | Smoke, fire, hot substances (X00-X19) | category | primary | 21 (0) | 9,674 | 0.93 (0.49-1.55) | 0.402 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.97 (0.46-2.12) |
| S | Unintentional external causes (V01-X59 excl. X30-X39) | primary | era_analog | 21 (0) | 520,921 | 0.98 (0.53-1.60) | 0.463 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.93 (0.44-1.98) |
| E | Unintentional external causes (V01-X59 excl. X30-X39) | primary | primary | 35 (0) | 958,293 | 0.98 (0.69-1.34) | 0.462 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 3.99x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.96 (0.70-1.38) |
| E | Unintentional + assault + undetermined intent | secondary composite | primary | 35 (0) | 974,848 | 0.98 (0.68-1.33) | 0.456 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 3.99x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.96 (0.70-1.39) |
| E | Land transport (V01-V89) | category | primary | 35 (0) | 81,307 | 1.00 (0.71-1.37) | 0.506 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 3.90x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.94 (0.68-1.33) |
| E | Falls (W00-W19) | category | primary | 35 (0) | 416,344 | 0.94 (0.64-1.30) | 0.344 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 4.20x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 1.01 (0.72-1.48) |
| E | Dog bite (W54) | category | primary | 35 (0) | 16,943 | 1.12 (0.71-1.58) | 0.714 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 4.80x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.84 (0.59-1.34) |
| E | Foreign body entering an orifice (W44) | category | primary | 35 (0) | 64,600 | 0.92 (0.66-1.27) | 0.311 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 3.93x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 1.02 (0.74-1.45) |
| E | Drowning (W65-W74) | category | primary | 35 (0) | 1,229 | 0.94 (0.51-1.73) | 0.412 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 7.31x the reference (> 2.5) | FAIL | 1.01 (0.54-1.86) |
| E | Accidental poisoning (X40-X49) | category | primary | 35 (0) | 55,311 | 0.90 (0.56-1.36) | 0.316 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 5.35x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 1.05 (0.69-1.70) |
| E | Smoke, fire, hot substances (X00-X19) | category | primary | 35 (0) | 36,177 | 0.97 (0.66-1.31) | 0.422 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 4.09x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.97 (0.71-1.44) |
| E | Unintentional external causes (V01-X59 excl. X30-X39) | primary | era_analog | 35 (0) | 958,293 | 1.03 (0.68-1.47) | 0.564 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 4.61x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.91 (0.63-1.39) |

### C3 England STATS19 road casualties (UK-ENG-STATS19-NATIONAL-SINGLEAGE; matching ENG_RV_backfill)

| Set | Outcome | Role | Spec | Cells (zero dropped) | Events | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | Class | Literal (a) | Why | Future+3 | DDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | All road casualties | primary | primary | 112 (0) | 100,332 | 1.00 (0.87-1.16) | 0.511 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.97 (0.82-1.15) |
| S | Killed or seriously injured | secondary | primary | 112 (0) | 13,920 | 1.03 (0.78-1.34) | 0.587 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 2.99x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.94 (0.72-1.26) |
| S | Pedestrian casualties | secondary | primary | 112 (0) | 41,451 | 1.04 (0.86-1.25) | 0.652 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.94 (0.76-1.15) |
| S | All road casualties | primary | era_analog | 112 (0) | 100,332 | 0.99 (0.86-1.15) | 0.434 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.98 (0.83-1.16) |
| E | All road casualties | primary | primary | 195 (0) | 159,554 | 1.06 (0.94-1.19) | 0.836 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.89 (0.77-1.02) |
| E | Killed or seriously injured | secondary | primary | 195 (0) | 22,633 | 0.98 (0.74-1.25) | 0.422 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 3.10x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.97 (0.74-1.28) |
| E | Pedestrian casualties | secondary | primary | 195 (0) | 63,605 | 1.11 (0.94-1.31) | 0.896 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.85 (0.70-1.02) |
| E | All road casualties | primary | era_analog | 195 (0) | 159,554 | 1.04 (0.92-1.16) | 0.730 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.91 (0.79-1.05) |

### C4 Scotland PHS unintentional-injury admissions (UK-SCT-PHS-UI-ADMISSIONS; matching SCT_RV)

| Set | Outcome | Role | Spec | Cells (zero dropped) | Events | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | Class | Literal (a) | Why | Future+3 | DDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | All unintentional-injury admissions | primary | primary | 306 (0) | 38,275 | 0.92 (0.26-3.05) | 0.446 | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.48 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 1.34 (0.21-8.20) |
| E | All unintentional-injury admissions | primary | primary | 960 (0) | 65,390 | 1.11 (0.42-2.75) | 0.585 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 1.40 (0.26-6.69) |
| S | Falls | category | primary | 306 (0) | 18,680 | 0.89 (0.25-2.94) | 0.424 | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.47 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 1.38 (0.22-8.44) |
| S | Road traffic injury | category | primary | 306 (0) | 1,958 | 0.87 (0.25-2.85) | 0.408 | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.45 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 1.42 (0.23-8.60) |
| S | Poisoning | category | primary | 306 (0) | 1,016 | 0.97 (0.27-3.21) | 0.481 | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.48 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 1.27 (0.20-7.80) |
| S | Struck by, against | category | primary | 306 (0) | 3,946 | 0.85 (0.24-2.80) | 0.397 | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.46 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 1.44 (0.23-8.79) |
| S | Crushing | category | primary | 306 (0) | 2,204 | 0.90 (0.25-2.99) | 0.433 | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.48 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 1.37 (0.22-8.41) |
| S | Scalds | category | primary | 306 (0) | 410 | 0.86 (0.24-2.93) | 0.409 | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.51 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 1.42 (0.23-8.77) |
| S | Other | category | primary | 306 (0) | 10,092 | 0.95 (0.26-3.17) | 0.468 | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.49 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 1.29 (0.21-7.96) |

### C5 Scotland STATS19 road casualties by council (UK-SCT-STATS19-COUNCIL; matching SCT_RV)

| Set | Outcome | Role | Spec | Cells (zero dropped) | Events | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | Class | Literal (a) | Why | Future+3 | DDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | All road casualties aged 5-18 | primary | primary | 490 (0) | 19,554 | 0.75 (0.22-2.42) | 0.317 | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.41 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 2.06 (0.33-11.93) |
| S | Killed or seriously injured aged 5-18 | secondary | primary | 490 (0) | 4,143 | 0.91 (0.25-2.93) | 0.438 | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.45 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 1.70 (0.27-10.11) |
| E | All road casualties aged 5-18 | primary | primary | 512 (0) | 19,966 | 0.75 (0.22-2.42) | 0.318 | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.41 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 2.06 (0.33-11.92) |
| E | Killed or seriously injured aged 5-18 | secondary | primary | 512 (0) | 4,219 | 0.91 (0.25-2.95) | 0.442 | UNINFORMATIVE | CONSISTENT | prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.45 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 1.69 (0.27-10.07) |

### C6 England UTLA injury admissions, ages 0-4 (Fingertips 90832) (UK-ENG-FT-UTLA-INJ-0-4; matching ENG_MMR_UTLA)

| Set | Outcome | Role | Spec | Cells (zero dropped) | Events | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | Class | Literal (a) | Why | Future+3 | DDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | Injury admissions aged 0-4 (Fingertips 90832) | primary | primary | 1020 (0) | 257,170 | 1.29 (0.38-4.49) | 0.657 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 2.51x the reference (> 2.5); prior-dominated (CrI log width 2.46 >= 0.8 x 2.7171) | PASS | 0.42 (0.11-1.57) |
| E | Injury admissions aged 0-4 (Fingertips 90832) | primary | ext | 1020 | 257,170 | not fitted | | SEE S (collapsed) | - | not fitted: E collapses to S: the m24 labels 2008-2010 filled from Fingertips 30309 cannot be used because MMR1@5y and DTaP@24m (same rule) exist only for labels 2011-2022; 0 extra cells | | |

### C7 Northern Ireland PSNI road casualties (UK-NIR-PSNI-RTC-CASUALTIES; matching NIR_RV)

| Set | Outcome | Role | Spec | Cells (zero dropped) | Events | r (95% CrI) | P(r>1) | Class | Literal (a) | Why | Future+3 | DDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | All road casualties | primary | primary | 22 (0) | 10,078 | 1.02 (0.37-2.04) | 0.520 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.64 (0.22-2.15) |
| S | Killed or seriously injured | secondary | primary | 22 (0) | 957 | 2.36 (0.86-4.79) | 0.959 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | FAIL | 0.28 (0.09-0.93) |
| S | All road casualties | primary | era_analog | 22 (0) | 10,078 | 1.03 (0.37-2.09) | 0.526 | CONSISTENT | CONSISTENT | - | PASS | 0.64 (0.21-2.19) |
| E | All road casualties | primary | primary | 24 (0) | 11,003 | 1.16 (0.48-2.17) | 0.650 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 5.47x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.88 (0.46-2.11) |
| E | Killed or seriously injured | secondary | primary | 24 (0) | 1,052 | 2.44 (0.99-5.09) | 0.974 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 5.95x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.41 (0.20-1.03) |
| E | All road casualties | primary | era_analog | 24 (0) | 11,003 | 1.18 (0.48-2.23) | 0.662 | UNINFORMATIVE | UNINFORMATIVE | CrI log width 5.61x the reference (> 2.5) | PASS | 0.86 (0.45-2.13) |

## Design sensitivity: harm-injection gate on the injury cells

| Row | Asimov medians R = 1, 2, 3, 5 | Gate | Plasmode R=2 | Plasmode | Null bias | Weak recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 S | 0.95, 1.84, 2.72, 4.39 | PASS | 1.92 | PASS | False | False |
| C1 E | 0.98, 1.91, 2.80, 4.42 | PASS | 1.86 | PASS | False | False |
| C2 S | 0.97, 1.87, 2.75, 4.46 | PASS | 1.90 | PASS | False | False |
| C2 E | 1.00, 1.93, 2.82, 4.43 | PASS | 1.89 | PASS | False | False |
| C3 S | 0.98, 1.90, 2.71, 4.31 | PASS | 1.96 | PASS | False | False |
| C3 E | 0.99, 1.98, 2.74, 4.35 | PASS | 2.01 | PASS | False | False |
| C7 S | 0.99, 1.91, 2.76, 4.44 | PASS | 1.92 | PASS | False | False |
| C7 E | 0.99, 1.93, 2.84, 4.64 | PASS | 2.13 | PASS | False | False |

## Cell accounting and caveats

- C1 S: 23 cells listed, 23 fitted (no loss); years 2013-2025; ages 5-9, 10-14.
- C1 E: 39 cells listed, 38 fitted (1 with undefined exposure or nuisance); years 2013-2025; ages 1-4, 5-9, 10-14.
- C2 S: 21 cells listed, 21 fitted (no loss); years 2013-2025; ages 5-9, 10-14.
- C2 E: 36 cells listed, 35 fitted (1 with undefined exposure or nuisance); years 2013-2025; ages 1-4, 5-9, 10-14.
- C3 S: 112 cells listed, 112 fitted (no loss); years 2011-2024; ages 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12.
- C3 E: 196 cells listed, 195 fitted (1 with undefined exposure or nuisance); years 2011-2024; ages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14.
- C4 S: 306 cells listed, 306 fitted (no loss); years 2015-2024; ages 5-14.
- C4 E: 960 cells listed, 960 fitted (no loss); years 2015-2024; ages 0-4, 5-9, 10-14.
- C5 S: 490 cells listed, 490 fitted (no loss); years 2010-2025; ages 5-18.
- C5 E: 512 cells listed, 512 fitted (no loss); years 2010-2025; ages 5-18.
- C6 S: 2205 cells listed, 1020 fitted (15 without a count; 14 without a population; 1170 with undefined exposure or nuisance); years 2016-2022; ages 0-4.
- C6 E: 2205 cells listed, 1020 fitted (15 without a count; 14 without a population; 1170 with undefined exposure or nuisance); years 2016-2022; ages 0-4.
- C7 S: 22 cells listed, 22 fitted (no loss); years 2013-2024; ages 0-9, 10-16.
- C7 E: 24 cells listed, 24 fitted (no loss); years 2013-2024; ages 0-9, 10-16.
- Cell losses fixed by the rule: HES 1998/99-2011/12 (only Age 0-14 published), 2003/04 and external-cause 2019/20 (not located); ONS denominators end at mid-2024, so STATS19 England 2025, PSNI 2025 and HES FY2025/26 do not exist in the fits; PHS S keeps the 306 council-years whose autism count is unsuppressed (14 lost); STATS19 Scotland S keeps the 490 SCT_RV cells (E adds the 22 suppressed-autism council-years).
- The injury cells are never the autism outcome: the controls test the design (exposure path, likelihood, nuisance) on the same or closest cells, not the school systems' own recording changes.
- HES counts are finished consultant episodes (not persons), and the Same Day Emergency Care move to ECDS (2021/22-2023/24) and COVID (2020/21) are injury-specific period shocks shared by all bands of a year.
- STATS19 casualties are police-recorded, located by collision (Scotland: council of collision, not residence); severity recording changed with CRASH from 2016 (KSI rows); COVID affects 2020.
- PSNI has two coarse bands (0-9 includes infants; 10-16) and small counts; the NI bridge averages grade prevalences with equal weights (no pupil counts are published).
- Fingertips counts are rounded to the nearest 5 and 1-7 suppressed from 2012; trust data-quality gaps remove some unit-years (counted above).
- The DDD is a contrast of separate fits treated as independent (the exposure path is shared), not a cell-level log ratio; it never changes a class.
- ESS is not applicable: every posterior is a deterministic grid quadrature (801 points Gaussian, 121 count); Kish effective grid points and boundary mass are in the CSV.