{
 "title": "Posterior region probabilities for three fitted estimands (read-only)",
 "generated": "2026-10-01T01:38:11",
 "cut_points": [
  0.9,
  0.95,
  1.0,
  1.05,
  1.1,
  1.25,
  1.5
 ],
 "regions": [
  {
   "key": "p_lt_0_90",
   "label": "P(RR < 0.90)"
  },
  {
   "key": "p_lt_0_95",
   "label": "P(RR < 0.95)"
  },
  {
   "key": "p_0_95_to_1_05",
   "label": "P(0.95 <= RR <= 1.05)"
  },
  {
   "key": "p_gt_1_05",
   "label": "P(RR > 1.05)"
  },
  {
   "key": "p_lt_1",
   "label": "P(RR < 1)"
  },
  {
   "key": "p_gt_1",
   "label": "P(RR > 1)"
  },
  {
   "key": "p_0_90_to_1_10",
   "label": "P(0.90 <= RR <= 1.10)"
  },
  {
   "key": "p_gt_1_10",
   "label": "P(RR > 1.10)"
  },
  {
   "key": "p_gt_1_25",
   "label": "P(RR > 1.25)"
  }
 ],
 "estimands": {
  "primary": {
   "label": "Primary heterogeneous shared mean (reference hierarchy, p18)",
   "source": "project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_grid_p18.npz key reference (6 x 241); international_hierarchy.summarize (headline) and global_hierarchy.exceedance (P(RR > t)); prior N(0, log 2^2), shared SD 0.15",
   "cdf_grid": "Normal mixture over the 241-point latent grid (trapezoid weights) evaluated on the 2401-point x-grid linspace(-6, 6) and linearly interpolated (international_hierarchy.density_summary / global_hierarchy.exceedance)",
   "reproduction": {
    "reproduced": {
     "rr_median": 0.9572190193273779,
     "rr_low": 0.5987963353191895,
     "rr_high": 1.5170319437916966,
     "p_above_1": 0.42537023764365867,
     "p_above_1_10": 0.27474886661253317
    },
    "target": {
     "rr_median": 0.9572190193273779,
     "rr_low": 0.5987963353191895,
     "rr_high": 1.5170319437916966,
     "p_above_1": 0.42537023764365867,
     "p_above_1_10": 0.27474886661253317
    },
    "target_source": "project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json headline",
    "abs_diff": {
     "rr_median": 0.0,
     "rr_low": 0.0,
     "rr_high": 0.0,
     "p_above_1": 0.0,
     "p_above_1_10": 0.0,
     "exceedance_p_above_1_vs_headline": 1.0536016503692736e-13,
     "exceedance_p_above_1_25_vs_headline": 0.0
    },
    "max_abs_diff": 1.0536016503692736e-13,
    "passed": true
   },
   "p_above": {
    "0.9": 0.6043972045652319,
    "0.95": 0.512985154672027,
    "1.0": 0.425370237643764,
    "1.05": 0.34521798769053325,
    "1.1": 0.27474886661266607,
    "1.25": 0.12580729275815938,
    "1.5": 0.02784423288476956
   },
   "cdf": {
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    "0.95": 0.487014845327973,
    "1.0": 0.574629762356236,
    "1.05": 0.6547820123094668,
    "1.1": 0.7252511333873339,
    "1.25": 0.8741927072418406,
    "1.5": 0.9721557671152304
   },
   "regions": {
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    "p_0_95_to_1_05": 0.16776716698149374,
    "p_gt_1_05": 0.34521798769053325,
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    "p_gt_1": 0.425370237643764,
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    "p_gt_1_25": 0.12580729275815938
   },
   "cross_check": {
    "method": "exact Normal-mixture CDF (current_mean_probabilities.mu_cdf), no x-grid interpolation",
    "regions": {
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     "p_gt_1": 0.42537023764361037,
     "p_0_90_to_1_10": 0.3296527693669625,
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     "p_gt_1_25": 0.12579443246208388
    },
    "max_abs_diff": 1.2860296075500877e-05
   },
   "pointnull_recomputed_bf01": 2.9321166858997163,
   "log_evidence": -6721.363108242335
  },
  "A1": {
   "label": "3350 A1: one common effect, declared bias floors (p18)",
   "source": "project_results/generalized_claim_3350/fits/A1_p18.npz (both scrambles, tag matches 3350 spec_tag of the A1 spec in 3350_generalized_claim_tests.json); 3350_generalized_claim_tests.summarize_theta(quad=\"simpson38\", shared SD 0.15)",
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   "fit_tag_matches": true,
   "reproduction": {
    "reproduced": {
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     "rr_low": 0.6373735537812252,
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     "p_above_1.05": 0.3425670985135596,
     "p_above_1.10": 0.265417115335179,
     "p_above_1.25": 0.10835422747547385,
     "p_above_1.50": 0.01766276108409015,
     "log_marginal_likelihood": -6719.828176875942
    },
    "target": {
     "rr_median": 0.9641350436001502,
     "rr_low": 0.6373735537812252,
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     "p_above_1.05": 0.3425670985135596,
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     "p_above_1.50": 0.01766276108409015,
     "log_marginal_likelihood": -6719.828176875942
    },
    "target_source": "3350_generalized_claim_tests.json A.rows.A1",
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     "rr_high": 0.0,
     "p_above_1.05": 0.0,
     "p_above_1.10": 0.0,
     "p_above_1.25": 0.0,
     "p_above_1.50": 0.0,
     "log_marginal_likelihood": 0.0
    },
    "max_abs_diff": 0.0,
    "passed": true,
    "thresholds_patch_quantile_max_abs_diff": 0.0
   },
   "p_above": {
    "0.9": 0.6281035344951463,
    "0.95": 0.5279627457740856,
    "1.0": 0.43111623606262517,
    "1.05": 0.3425670985135596,
    "1.1": 0.265417115335179,
    "1.25": 0.10835422747547385,
    "1.5": 0.01766276108409015
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   "cdf": {
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    "0.95": 0.47203725422591436,
    "1.0": 0.5688837639373748,
    "1.05": 0.6574329014864404,
    "1.1": 0.734582884664821,
    "1.25": 0.8916457725245261,
    "1.5": 0.9823372389159098
   },
   "regions": {
    "p_lt_0_90": 0.37189646550485367,
    "p_lt_0_95": 0.47203725422591436,
    "p_0_95_to_1_05": 0.18539564726052604,
    "p_gt_1_05": 0.3425670985135596,
    "p_lt_1": 0.5688837639373748,
    "p_gt_1": 0.43111623606262517,
    "p_0_90_to_1_10": 0.36268641915996735,
    "p_gt_1_10": 0.265417115335179,
    "p_gt_1_25": 0.10835422747547385
   },
   "quadrature_sensitivity": {
    "method": "same fit, pre-declared trapezoid weights instead of amendment-1 Simpson 3/8",
    "regions": {
     "p_lt_0_90": 0.3718926063077044,
     "p_lt_0_95": 0.4720341625229869,
     "p_0_95_to_1_05": 0.18539754871088143,
     "p_gt_1_05": 0.34256828876613166,
     "p_lt_1": 0.5688816219144721,
     "p_gt_1": 0.4311183780855279,
     "p_0_90_to_1_10": 0.3626899096503764,
     "p_gt_1_10": 0.2654174840419192,
     "p_gt_1_25": 0.10835335105022015
    },
    "max_abs_diff": 3.8591971492918375e-06
   },
   "scrambles": {
    "seeds": [
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    ],
    "regions": [
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   "label": "3370 V1: calibrated common effect (NC rounds 1 + 2, p20)",
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   "power": 20,
   "p20_centres": {
    "restricted": true,
    "centers": [
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     715
    ],
    "range_log": [
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    ],
    "p18_mass_outside": 0.0
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   "fit_files": {
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     "p_above_1.25": 4.631115435360655e-06,
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     "log_marginal_likelihood": -6713.6737671715,
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     "p_above_1.05": 0.010190021641710678,
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    "max_abs_diff": 0.0,
    "passed": true,
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    "target_source": "3370_calibrated_synthesis.json summative.row"
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   "label": "3370 V2: variance-only common effect (NC rounds 1 + 2, p18)",
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   "cdf_grid": "3350 summarize_theta shared_sd=0 branch: trapezoid-cumulative posterior of theta on the 1201-point grid (spacing 0.005), linearly interpolated; prior N(0, log 2^2); calibrated bias (incl. shared mu_b) integrated over the node mixture",
   "power": 18,
   "p20_centres": {
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   "fit_files": {
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   "reproduction": {
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     "p_above_1.50": 1.773750279987496e-08,
     "log_marginal_likelihood": -6714.516319586765,
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    "target": {
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     "rr_low": 0.8055839194505688,
     "rr_high": 1.111463195117247,
     "p_above_1.05": 0.10243794111267157,
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     "p_above_1.50": 1.773750279987496e-08,
     "log_marginal_likelihood": -6714.516319586765,
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    "max_abs_diff": 0.0,
    "passed": true,
    "thresholds_patch_quantile_max_abs_diff": 0.0,
    "target_source": "3370_calibrated_synthesis.json variants[V2, common effect]"
   },
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 },
 "v1_node_live_check": {
  "performed": true,
  "nc_inputs_unchanged": true,
  "frozen_inputs_unchanged": true,
  "scheme": [
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   6,
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  ],
  "V1": {
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 },
 "point_nulls": {
  "shared_mean_point_null": {
   "hypothesis": "H0: shared mean mu = 0 (shared bias N(0, 0.15^2) and product/context heterogeneity retained) vs continuous mu ~ N(0, log 2^2)",
   "source": "project_results/global_integration/mean_pointnull_probabilities.csv prior_label=reference (written by processed/current_mean_probabilities.py)",
   "bf01": 2.9321166858997163,
   "log_bf01": 1.0757245806062201,
   "log_marginal_likelihoods": {
    "null": -6720.287383661729,
    "continuous": -6721.363108242335
   },
   "posterior_p_null": {
    "0.2": 0.42297566800394365,
    "0.5": 0.745684047580295,
    "0.8": 0.9214359419603388
   },
   "posterior_p_null_saved": {
    "0.2": 0.42297566800394365,
    "0.5": 0.745684047580295,
    "0.8": 0.9214359419603388
   },
   "conversion_max_abs_diff_vs_saved": 0.0,
   "recomputed_from_grid_bf01": 2.9321166858997163,
   "recomputed_abs_diff": 0.0,
   "other_priors": {
    "half": 1.7080982932455524,
    "double_diagnostic": 5.591641895211181
   }
  },
  "all_null_vs_heterogeneous_3350": {
   "hypothesis": "H0: every pooled context effect delta_c = 0 (all A1 bias terms retained: context, country-group, shared N(0, 0.15^2)) vs the heterogeneous primary with its declared priors",
   "source": "3350_generalized_claim_tests.json C.null.floors.log_bf_null_vs_primary (H0 log ML -6718.6511, p18; primary log ML -6721.3631)",
   "bf": 15.059998264396935,
   "log_bf": 2.7120421071258534,
   "posterior_p_null": {
    "0.2": 0.7901363922224596,
    "0.5": 0.9377334926481979,
    "0.8": 0.9836708015453295
   },
   "eta4_prior_sensitivity_log_bf": [
    2.377388082219113,
    2.6967220345368332
   ],
   "doubled_floors": {
    "bf": 5.412908549398335,
    "log_bf": 1.6887865730477643,
    "posterior_p_null": {
     "0.2": 0.575051645407128,
     "0.5": 0.844064515765811,
     "0.8": 0.9558530748255573
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "reproduction_all_passed": true,
 "reproduction_failed": [],
 "inputs_sha256": {
  "project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_p18.json": "e103ab7ab14be768603cc2c741373160b39698794d8c3081c873879612f480ca",
  "project_results/global_integration/hierarchy/hierarchy_final_grid_p18.npz": "72ef707aa94606f44e63cdd42e922f276fb4e9db0e91ba5d982189175f76f379",
  "project_results/generalized_claim_3350/fits/A1_p18.npz": "9d350f76132750c4a38c113805a564cd80fdf0d4e874cf55a0ed706cfc368b56",
  "3350_generalized_claim_tests.json": "736de23b04276b3ddc5ee2a554c05a0e911034beabbc1159017de0ccdf1fd579",
  "3370_calibrated_synthesis.json": "66665f1adcaabf5580ab384f54e6bc28f3a05f1c45f3d826d590bb65109bb31d",
  "project_results/global_integration/mean_pointnull_probabilities.csv": "ab71a6941a070bfd6bdc188f1c33db3d6f072e744f64ceac475a0bc9ee159466"
 },
 "code_sha256_now": {
  "07_analysis_code/3350_generalized_claim_tests.py": "74b86c295b217536d5bb136906854c3208eaa362e611efca64b25bf15618e010",
  "07_analysis_code/3370_calibrated_synthesis.py": "0d5e95f59ca0d92f9294cdc18efbd85fb919d32a81f161d105c8baa050f9edcc",
  "processed/current_mean_probabilities.py": "07bf1b209980c80df77a69541b68b57de05f4a88006e032f3279e7a36f56dba9",
  "processed/global_hierarchy.py": "25dae69b233378e3736df1de37e03fcc420048c8deb3f814a30b5efab475ced0",
  "processed/international_hierarchy.py": "7757e1bdad248377cc9c7b36b1c6e09d79060b64e0f3544acaa51e1720762c10"
 },
 "code_sha256_recorded": {
  "by_3350": {
   "07_analysis_code/3350_generalized_claim_tests.py": "74b86c295b217536d5bb136906854c3208eaa362e611efca64b25bf15618e010"
  },
  "by_3370": {
   "07_analysis_code/3370_calibrated_synthesis.py": "0d5e95f59ca0d92f9294cdc18efbd85fb919d32a81f161d105c8baa050f9edcc"
  }
 },
 "script": {
  "file": "07_analysis_code/3373_posterior_regions.py",
  "sha256": "52ee623f94081eb25f1f5552ccdbdf27a94efd113566db3395095c06c556a0d8"
 },
 "note": "No existing file was modified; THRESHOLDS of the imported 3350 module was changed in memory only, per call, and restored."
}